Originally posted by Heyesey
I'm quoting from other people who understand more about how the number-crunching works than I do
Hmmm. Forgive my scepticism, but a lot of the number-crunching expertise was based on the board game. It was never very clear whether the board game rules were applied to the computer game, and we are several versions down the line from then anyway.
And there are several dogmatic types who will make categorical assertions based on no more than guess-work or for the sake of making mischief. I certainly don't believe anything on the forum I can't verify (though there are lots of things I don't know, so I'm always interested to try and verify new suggestions).
Whilst some of the moderators look like they probably work for Paradox, that is not in itself a guarantee of accuracy (if Paradox were always accurate the game would not be bug-ridden). Also Paradox seem to have a policy that the more mystified we all are, the better off they are, though quite how they come to that conclusion is completely beyond me. (I am considering not buying EU2 when it is released in the UK, just to spare myself the rage at the lack of documentation and guidance that will make the first 200 hours of playing such a hit and miss affair)
How would one ever verify a 'small effect' on seiges? There is such huge variability in the rate of sieges anyway.