How big of a potential do China and India have?

[Caesar15]

So we know that factory amount is based off of infrastructure and population, now imagine if China didn't get Marco Polo'd and instead focused on internal developing. Of course in real life it would be more about uniting China and fighting communists and such but since that stuff isn't really represented in game well we can instead choose to heavily industrliaze. Just imagine the amount of factories China could support with that huge population..all it needs is a lot more infrastructure and civilian factories to make it.

Then we have India. Puppet, but they can be released by UK in one of their NF's. Now imagine the same thing with China except with India now; high population is there, all it needs is the infrastructure and then massive amounts of factories can be built. Thing is, how long would this take? If war does not come to China or India's door step so soon, then when can they be expected to field a formidable and well equipped fighting force? Thoughts?

 

[henzington]

India has massive manpower but very little industry so it would be hard to do a lot.

 

[Axe99]

Interesting topic . I'd expect it to be outside the timeframe of the game. It's been a long time since I studied Chinese history (and I only did a semester of it at uni), but Deng Xiaoping was the person that really set in train China's modernisation, and (quick Google to check) it began around 1979 (and China in 1979 was in a better state than China in 1936), and it took until well into the 1990s before China was really starting to become industrialised in the modern sense. I'd expect that if a Chinese player was able to avoid war with Japan (or pretty much anyone else) and go gung-ho stabilising and industrialising, they could make significant progress in the 12 years of the game, but that given it'll take them some time to unite the country before they can do this, they won't be fielding a 'formidable and well equipped fighting force' without massive Soviet (or other power's) aid until the second half of the 1940s - and even then, there's no chance it'd come close to challenging any of the 'great powers' in this period in a straight-up fight.

I don't know as much about India, but I'd expect it to be in the same boat. Great potential, but not able to realise it within the span of the game.

 

[scroggin]

I would say they had little potential over a ten year period. But a huge potential over a 50 year period.

 

[TheOrangeGuy]

If they manage to sell a lot of resources they can probably grow really quickly. I think someone mentioned that Sweden have 200 iron, China should have more total resources than that right? And it was around 20 or 30 resources for 4 factories, if memory serves me. And highest trade law is 80%? If they get buyers they get a lot of extra potential!

 

[Sir Garnet]

They have large potential work forces, but growth requires investment and investment requires capital creation or investment from outside. In the game, capital for factories is generated by existing factories.

A sustainable and real annual economic growth rate of 8% is very good. That doubles the economy in 9 years, which happens to be the span of the game. If the economics are anywhere near realistic, the industrial base can be increased by some percentage but at the expense of everything else.

In a dangerous world, that investment might better go into defensive expenditures, starting with making ready the ability to utilize large manpower reserves. .

 

[J_Master]

@TheOrangeGuy that is what I also tought. Unite the cliques an the commies under nationalist rule, and export the resources for extra IC. Focus on building civillian factories with that extra IC, your OWN and via national focusses. But when you are really getting started, it is already 1948.

 

[TheOrangeGuy]

If you have 200 resources 80% is tagged for trade, and you manage to sell half that, you will get around 16 extra factories, yeah maybe that's not enough for quick expansion.. Britain had around 70 I think. Maybe good guy USA buys all yours

 

[Gotomtom]

China not getting into a war with Japan, first of all is very plausible. Initially, according to what I have read, the Chinese where heavily looking up to Japan and hoping for a lasting peace with Japan, ask them for help modernizing(to protect China against the evil European imperials they would rather deal with Japan, a fellow Asian country). With Japanese and German help China could continue its modernization. They looked up to the German military as well as the Japanese military. It would do Japan and Germany well to speed up this process to prevent the CCP from gaining too much power. The warlords really did not fare particularly well against the central army, with Japanese and German help this would be even more in Chiang's favor. Had Japan not invaded it is highly likely the Communists would have been wiped out soon. By 1936 most of China was in the hands of the Central army, or controlled by allies of the central army(most notably the south). These areas would be fairly save to modernize.

Ofcourse as has already been said, a factory is not quickly build and modernizing would take a lot of time. By the end of the game's time frame China could potentially be a world power with a huge industrial output, however it would have to also expand its resource extraction to be able to run this massive industrialization. The biggest danger in case of peace with Japan would be being forced into a war with the USSR, which would obviously be what Germany and Japan would demand of China. Also China would lack USA aid, but then again it did not get a lot of aid from the USA until after pearl harbor.

Regardless of whether it can be achieved within the game's time span, it should be possible to at least try this and see how far one can get. China has always been neglected in PI games, except maybe victoria II. Its potential has never been close to what it should be. I do suspect this is due to balancing out the nations, as a China at full potential would be ridiculously unfair.

Feel free to think differently about this, I have only read so much about Chinese WW2 history and by no means am all knowing.

Based on:
-The Generalisimo. Chaing Kai-Shek and the struggle for modern China by Jay Taylor
-Japan's Imperial Army. Its rise and fall, 1853-1945 by Edward J. Drea

 

[Denkt]

You can build factories quite quickly in HOI4 but we don't know how much potential they have in the game.

 

[The_Meme_Man]

An industry can be built incredibly quickly if well-planned and under a command-economy system. If the entire country's manpower is put to building it, China and India realistically could have large albeit crude, inefficient, unsafe, and low quality industries in only a year. For India, Britain's help could make it faster and better (since Britain has a national focus to build up the Raj).

However, for these kinds of results as an independent power, it should pretty much be mandatory for you to be the People's Republic of China, Communist India, or Fascist India/Azad Hind, and for the case of India, you would need to be independent first (earliest I could see India running a sizable industry, though unsustainable realistically, would be 1942, for infantry small arms mainly).

 

[Caesar15]

Hmm..so we're looking at huge industrial power in the late game if the entire timeframe is being focused on development. Well it's definitely more of a long term thing then, so I can see a more patient and slower Germany choosing China over Japan as an ally and then developing them. I wonder how many factories China could hold though, if it's infrastructure was top notch. More than the US?

 

[wright1331]

Hmm..so we're looking at huge industrial power in the late game if the entire timeframe is being focused on development. Well it's definitely more of a long term thing then, so I can see a more patient and slower Germany choosing China over Japan as an ally and then developing them. I wonder how many factories China could hold though, if it's infrastructure was top notch. More than the US?

As other have said, Impossible for China to become a world power in this time frame.
But that said, look ahead to today and they are the largest economy (so give them an extra 60 years past the time frame and who knows)

 

[Paladino]

As other have said, Impossible for China to become a world power in this time frame.
But that said, look ahead to today and they are the largest economy (so give them an extra 60 years past the time frame and who knows)

They are still miles away from the US or the EU, so they aren't the largest today.
Though if they keep their growth rates in the 7%-9% those miles aren't so big, but the Chinese economy is losing some impetus so can't say for sure.

 

[scroggin]

An industry can be built incredibly quickly if well-planned and under a command-economy system. If the entire country's manpower is put to building it,

However, for these kinds of results as an independent power, it should pretty much be mandatory for you to be the People's Republic of China, Communist India, or Fascist India/Azad Hind, and for the case of India, you would need to be independent first (earliest I could see India running a sizable industry, though unsustainable realistically, would be 1942, for infantry small arms mainly).

Are you aware that this is precisely what Mao Tse Tung attempted to do with his "giant leap forwards". The nett result was a lot of poor quality steel china had no use for and mass starvation due to the diversion of effort and the collectivisation of agriculture. But not to worry he introduced the one child policy to deflect attention from the real cause of their famine.

What a command economy is very good at is focusing huge resources on one thing. For example soviet WWII tank production or 1970s Russian ability to have a very good military while the people lived in poverty. The problem with a command economy is that its very bureaucratic and inefficient.

China is now experiencing massive economic growth due to a relaxing of the command economy and the introduction of the free market. Some aspects of a command economy are useful. The building of infrustructure and education are usually done well. But expecting massive GDP growth through such an inefficient system flies in the face of history.

 

[Secret Master]

In the time frame, and under the rules of HOI4, what resources does China have to sell for civilian factory output?

I'm asking, because in HOI3, China had diddly and squat for resources. With the exception of the aluminum strategic resource, she more or less ran a resource deficit and needed to trade to power her IC.

Without some technical expertise to improve resource extraction, how much do you think China can really export? HOI4 will have more resources, including some rarer stuff, but is China in a position to really export a significant amount of resources even if she isn't under attack?

 

[Porkman]

In the time frame, and under the rules of HOI4, what resources does China have to sell for civilian factory output?

I'm asking, because in HOI3, China had diddly and squat for resources. With the exception of the aluminum strategic resource, she more or less ran a resource deficit and needed to trade to power her IC.

Without some technical expertise to improve resource extraction, how much do you think China can really export? HOI4 will have more resources, including some rarer stuff, but is China in a position to really export a significant amount of resources even if she isn't under attack?

China had more potential in 1936 than it's given credit for.

They had technical expertise. They had foreign help. They had joint enterprises. Many of the things that were seen as super revolutionary about Deng Xiaoping's opening of China in 1979 already had existed at smaller scales during the 1930's in China. Herbert Hoover spoke Chinese because he had worked there in mining. Bertrand Russel taught 2 semesters at Qinghua University. Sun Li Ren, who would become one of China's best Generals during the war with Japan, had a degree in civil engineering from Purdue.

This guy is Jimmy Yen who worked in Rural reconstruction. That's Albert Einstein with him since they were in the same year at Princeton.

National Southwestern Associated University which was a wartime collaboration of Peking, Qinghua, and Nankai University educated two of China's science Nobel Prize Winners.

China was still poor and uneducated but they did have a large well educated elite with a cultural emphasis on learning. Foreign interests had been trying to get resources out of the country since the end of the second opium war. By this point, China was producing coal mostly but also a lot of secondary ores like tin and aluminum.

Without the war, the country would have been a world power by 1945 if not very long legged or well industrialized. The ingredients for development were all there but the war with Japan + the internal civil war made sure that most of those ingredients were squandered.

The communists would later erase any evidence of progress during the Nationalist period to show that any modernization that China achieved was due to the glorious leadership of the CCP.

 

[scroggin]

You have some very good points there porkman. However do you think china could become a true world power without 30 years of universal education. Isnt edication and technical training the missing link?

 

[planefinderMT]

I think it's important to put context around what we mean when we talk about China and its power. China would likely not be the top industrial power by end HOI, but as a land-focused power, they could certainly achieve a great deal quickly. An infantry focused strategy, maybe coupled with light aircraft and anti-tank weapons could definitely attrit more advanced opponents, provided doctrine and equipment was researched. Also, provided there was a clear industrial focus, even moderate industry could sustain large infantry armies, especially coupled with the new lend-lease concept of directly sending equipment. The key for Chinese players will be to focus on doctrine, infantry techs and light aircraft and then training/cranking out as many infantry divisions as possible, as quickly as possible.

 

[The_Meme_Man]

Are you aware that this is precisely what Mao Tse Tung attempted to do with his "giant leap forwards". The nett result was a lot of poor quality steel china had no use for and mass starvation due to the diversion of effort and the collectivisation of agriculture. But not to worry he introduced the one child policy to deflect attention from the real cause of their famine.

What a command economy is very good at is focusing huge resources on one thing. For example soviet WWII tank production or 1970s Russian ability to have a very good military while the people lived in poverty. The problem with a command economy is that its very bureaucratic and inefficient.

China is now experiencing massive economic growth due to a relaxing of the command economy and the introduction of the free market. Some aspects of a command economy are useful. The building of infrustructure and education are usually done well. But expecting massive GDP growth through such an inefficient system flies in the face of history.

Well I was meaning in the constrained time scale that is Hearts of Iron IV (10 years), and you conveniently cut out what I said about "China and India realistically could have large albeit crude, inefficient, unsafe, and low quality industries", which are all characteristics of industries that cannot survive on the long run, but can survive long enough to help with, say, a world war.