Horizon Signal - Increased Chance?

[Defiler99]

@Defiler99 Claimed or unclaimed is irrelevant. The requirements are that a non-gestalt human player have a science ship with a leader enter a black hole system. The only restriction beyond that is that the system isn't a guardian system (ie, had/has a leviathan).

Good to know; I wasn't sure if I was just spectacularly unlucky with the system I chose, or if it had to be unclaimed. Thanks!

 

[Bankipriel]

748 hours played ... never seen the Horizon Signal event.

What is the point of even having content this unlikely to trigger?

 

[Spidee]

748 hours played ... never seen the Horizon Signal event.

What is the point of even having content this unlikely to trigger?

How much have you played in 2.0.x? As I said 5 games in 4 I had it.

 

[Bankipriel]

How much have you played in 2.0.x? As I said 5 games in 4 I had it.

I would guess 30-40 hours of game-play in 2.0.2 so far, across 3 ongoing games.

 

[Spidee]

I'm torn; it's game-y that we can farm it.. but it's otherwise so rare that nobody will see it.

Imagine getting it like 20x less often than currently; that's potentially how it would be. Not ideal.

Well we have Wanderlust, several starting events, eastereggs. I am fine with this one not triggering every game. Maybe the likelihood needs to scale with the galaxy size. Black holes are what 5% of the systems? 10%? Say there are 50 systems that you can visit with s scienceship. If the chance is 1% and you :

• Visit the systems only once (50 visits); Chance you will have the signal event (1-0.99^50) = 39.5%
• Due to geography visit every system twice (on average); Signal event (1-0.99^100) = 63.3%
• 150 visits 1-.99^150 = 77.9%

To me these chances seem quite high. Maybe the condition, that every black hole can trigger the roll only once should be put back in place. If there is something wrong with my math, please let me know.

 

[Spinosaurus]

I got the chain 3 times in five games. So I guess it has a combination of rng and how often your science ships survey blackhole systems. I play always on the largest maps so it probably increases the probability too.

 

[Defiler99]

Well we have Wanderlust, several starting events, eastereggs. I am fine with this one not triggering every game. Maybe the likelihood needs to scale with the galaxy size. Black holes are what 5% of the systems? 10%? Say there are 50 systems that you can visit with s scienceship. If the chance is 1% and you :

• Visit the systems only once (50 visits); Chance you will have the signal event (1-0.99^50) = 39.5%
• Due to geography visit every system twice (on average); Signal event (1-0.99^100) = 63.3%
• 150 visits 1-.99^150 = 77.9%

To me these chances seem quite high. Maybe the condition, that every black hole can trigger the roll only once should be put back in place. If there is something wrong with my math, please let me know.

Your math looks correct to me; geometric distribution.
I'm not sure there are as many black holes as that in a typical galaxy, however.
My current game is a 1000-star galaxy, and it only has 13 black holes.