I never quite understood the people wanting Belgium and the Netherlands. Why should dev resources be put toward countries that are just going to get wiped out in the opening days of the way in an overwhelming portion of games when there are other countries they could devote resources to that would be relevant longer. Even Norway is a better pick, imo, than either Netherlands or Belgium. The only case where those two countries could really be all that fun is in the super whacky, ahistorical scenarios. Otherwise they're either toppled just days into the war, or stop the germans incredibly early and then the game is over. Either way, not very fun.
This expansion is supposed to have a "government in exile" mechanic, which could possibly make Belgium and the Netherlands (besides all the others) still a fun play even after capitulation.
I suppose it would make sense to couple this mechanic with nations that are almost guaranteed to surrender in the war.
I really don't want the two non-major nations getting focus tree are democratic. They are just not fun to play TBH.
Another thing this expansion is supposed to do is make democracies a more enjoyable experience, so that's that.
16:40 "What I can hint is they're going to be in the same areas, basically [as the two revamped majors], so probably something on each side?"
That does change the situation though, as I'd believe it wouldn't make much sense focusing on BEL while leaving NED untouched, and vice-versa, so if the two nations are truly one closer to the US and the other to the UK, then the Benelux is definitely out.
While I see your point, personally I feel that the low countries (Belgium and the Netherlands, as the devs have said they're probably not giving Luxembourg a focus tree) would be better in a expansion with France. Looking at what others have said, both devs and other forum members, I reckon the focus tree will probably be Ireland and the Philippines. Both start as democracies and have strong ties to the major powers being revamped.
While I disagree that BEL and NED would need to go together with France (it is my completely baseless believe that the next expansion will either rework the USSR and Poland or France and Italy, with the second one being a Mediterranean focused expansion with new FTs for Spain, Greece and Turkey), Ireland the the Philippines do seem to fit the theme, both being technically democracies and having a lot of naval action happening all around them.
With that said, it would seem odd to me that they would focus on Ireland with so many nations that actually had an active role in the war still with generic FTs, and I don't know how to feel about the Philippines, being a puppet of the US and all, I can't imagine the role PDX would have them play out in all of this.
Also, of the four new FTs, having the Philippines being the only one to experience the government in exile mechanic would seem a bit strange to me.