HOI4 Dev Diary - Hungary

[Metz]

Okay, so, I think I can say that Austria wished for their absorption by the Germans because they felt like it would eliminate the political violence in their own nation. The Austrian Nazi party was bombing and killing people left and right, and we can't see it evolve the way Dollfuss wanted because he was dead in 1934 from a Nazi putsch in the nation. The only way that the Habsburgs returned was on postcards, and no one thought it was a good idea regardless. Also, no one voted in national elections, as there was no national parliament after 1934.

Mussolini wanted to take over Austria because he felt that he needed some buffer between himself and Germany; indeed, the Anschluss could have come four years earlier had Mussolini not assembled troops on the border and threaten war against Germany if she invaded. But after the conclusion of the Italio-Abyssinian War in 1936, Mussolini recognized that the Western powers were weak and sought the ally he got in Hitler. It was his encouragement that Hitler was able to conduct the Anschluss at all.

Make Naval Combat Great.

Would an early Anschluss have led to an early Sudetenland and Munich Treaty? Or were those dependent on the later build up of German forces?

 

[Gamer_1745]

Would an early Anschluss have led to an early Sudetenland and Munich Treaty? Or were those dependent on the later build up of German forces?

No. I do think Anschluss was needed before getting the Sudetenland, but they had to build up both support & the appearance support of in with the German speaking Czechs & the appearance of Czech oppression of them. This was well under way before Anschluss, but had a timetable of it's own.

 

[Dalnar]

Anschluss was needed to expose "the belly" of Czechoslovakia. Once the southern border was exposed, the military situation became dramatically different because it made successful defense much harder. It was the least defended region and plains mostly.

 

[llib]

No. I do think Anschluss was needed before getting the Sudetenland, but they had to build up both support & the appearance support of in with the German speaking Czechs & the appearance of Czech oppression of them. This was well under way before Anschluss, but had a timetable of it's own.

Czech countries (Bohemia/Moravia) were industrial bulk of Czechoslovakia(as they were previously industrial bulk of Austro-Hungarian Empire). Before Anschluss, they were exposed from two sides. After Anschluss, they were exposed from three sides, making the defense with numerical inferiority(and dramatically weaker air force as well as lacking numbers in air defense) extremely difficult. There were some arrangements such as sites in Slovakia where some of the industry was to be moved (such as weapons factories), but of course that could only help so far.

Anschluss was needed to expose "the belly" of Czechoslovakia. Once the southern border was exposed, the military situation became dramatically different because it made successful defense much harder. It was the least defended region and plains mostly.

Well, that is not entirely correct - after Anschluss, Southern Moravia was the area with largest amount of forces (actually in that part, there was numerical superiority with Czechoslovakia. However this was because of two reasons
1) Quite similar to what you write, it was most exposed area due to relatively plain terrain and It was southern part of shortest connection between north and south, threatening to cut the republic into two with disastrous results.
2) With encirclement on three sides, hostility from Poland and Hungary(the only friendly border was relatively short one with Romania), holding Czech countries become untenable(edit: and as such were left with token defense). At best, what could have been hoped for was holding Moravia.

Also, after Anschluss, Moravia received big priority in fortification buildup, which meant that there was quite a bit completed before Munich (though of course none of the areas were truly complete).
Other part is, without Anschluss, there was no land connection between Hungary and Nazi Germany, and even with limited forces Czechoslovakia would be able to hold Hungary off(that much can be concluded from "little war" in Ruthenia, which likely would hold of due to concerns of Romanian intervention(and - to much smaller degree - Yugoslavian), which would be much more likely in that scenario. However with Anschluss, even Slovakia was exposed to German attack through Hungary.

 

[Mastergrunt712]

Are there plans to have the French AI go down the Little Entente path after Hungary becomes too hostile?

 

[Khevenhuller]

Are there plans to have the French AI go down the Little Entente path after Hungary becomes too hostile?

It would be more a revival really, as it was a twenties thing originally. But, like most revivals, it would probably have never lived up to its billing.

The French saw the little entente as a device aimed at Germany: a way to replace Tsarist Russia in threatening Germany's Eastern border. The problem comes when the French start implementing the second bit of their strategy: Maginot's line of fortresses. This sent a clear message to the guys in the east that France would shelter behind her defences and leave them to face the music: a very different France from the Grandmaison-inspired offensives of 1914.

For their part they had all got territory from a defeated Hungary. They had a good common cause to band together and ensure the Hungarians did not come knocking to get it back. But by the mid-thirties, with the resurgence of German and Soviet power things are not the same. France is not going to help out if there is a war. So what alternatives are there but accommodating to Berlin? After all, look at what happened to the Czechs. Despite France insisting that London guarantee Romania in 1939, the alliance was pretty lifeless. After the fall of France things get even more stark. Romania is a monarchy, so are Yugoslavia and Bulgaria. None of them are going to look to Moscow. Poland had delusions of going it alone and that turned out badly.

So, a revival of the Little Entente should certainly be predicated on a few choices by several countries. It certainly would be a tough one given the erratic AI in SP, and the initiative would come from France. But it would primarily be aimed at Germany. The Hungarian benefit is a secondary concern to Paris, though the Little Entente may see it a little differently!

K

 

[Axe99]

@Axe99 @RavenR et all.

In all due respect a small glimpse in history books, currenct evaluations by historicans etc - even Wikipedia can clear that topic up about Austria, Italy, Germany and gerneral feel for Anschluss.

Major points:

1. Schuschnegg wanted to enforce an illegal public vote on staying independant (basically a paper, where one can only sign "yes" without another option).
2. "Anschluss" was a topic since 1918 and broadly supported in Austria.
   
3. The public vote to justify Anschluss later on yielded an "unbelievable" 99+% "yes" vote. Yet historicans nowadays agree that this vote reflects public opinion. In worst case it would have been "only" 80% agreeing to Anschluss.
4. In fact Italy supported Austrian independancy for a long time. Had Mussolini intervened, the Anschluss probably never would have happened. Yet Germany sent a note to Mussolini beforehand (actually a day late, but enough to satisfy Mussolini) stating what is about to happen. Due to the Axis agreements, Mussolini didnt intervene. In fact the only nation to intervene was Mexico. Stating "Austria was the first Hitler victim" is an urban myth. They wanted it - badly.

I was just talking about river gunboats/monitors, I'm afraid I'm pretty clueless on Austrian/Hungarian politics in that period (and most periods, while we're at it). Good post though, very helpful .

 

[Magnificent Genius]

@podcat since we're getting formable Austria-Hungary, does that mean that later when you redo the German focus tree we might be able to get a focus to throw the Austrian Corporal with the silly mustache out on his ear and bring back the Hohenzollerns? There were plans to do just that. It involved Admiral Canaris and a few other member of the General Staff, and the Munich Conference falling apart.

 

[Farquarsen]

I was wondering when someone would mention Canaris. Talk about heros.

 

[Khevenhuller]

@podcat since we're getting formable Austria-Hungary, does that mean that later when you redo the German focus tree we might be able to get a focus to throw the Austrian Corporal with the silly mustache out on his ear and bring back the Hohenzollerns? There were plans to do just that. It involved Admiral Canaris and a few other member of the General Staff, and the Munich Conference falling apart.

When German troops invaded Holland, the apocryphal story is that Wilhelm complained about their behaviour. Wasn't 'Little Willy' an ardent Nazi by this time?

K

 

[Once More Mate]

Surely Bulgaria in the free patch?

 

[Adamgerd]

Czech countries (Bohemia/Moravia) were industrial bulk of Czechoslovakia(as they were previously industrial bulk of Austro-Hungarian Empire). Before Anschluss, they were exposed from two sides. After Anschluss, they were exposed from three sides, making the defense with numerical inferiority(and dramatically weaker air force as well as lacking numbers in air defense) extremely difficult. There were some arrangements such as sites in Slovakia where some of the industry was to be moved (such as weapons factories), but of course that could only help so far.


Well, that is not entirely correct - after Anschluss, Southern Moravia was the area with largest amount of forces (actually in that part, there was numerical superiority with Czechoslovakia. However this was because of two reasons
1) Quite similar to what you write, it was most exposed area due to relatively plain terrain and It was southern part of shortest connection between north and south, threatening to cut the republic into two with disastrous results.
2) With encirclement on three sides, hostility from Poland and Hungary(the only friendly border was relatively short one with Romania), holding Czech countries become untenable(edit: and as such were left with token defense). At best, what could have been hoped for was holding Moravia.

Also, after Anschluss, Moravia received big priority in fortification buildup, which meant that there was quite a bit completed before Munich (though of course none of the areas were truly complete).
Other part is, without Anschluss, there was no land connection between Hungary and Nazi Germany, and even with limited forces Czechoslovakia would be able to hold Hungary off(that much can be concluded from "little war" in Ruthenia, which likely would hold of due to concerns of Romanian intervention(and - to much smaller degree - Yugoslavian), which would be much more likely in that scenario. However with Anschluss, even Slovakia was exposed to German attack through Hungary.

Well, they probably could've held against Hungary. In fact, before Anschluss they had a defense plan, which counted on them delivering a quick strike against Hungary. The original Czech defense plan before Anschluss was that they would have border guards at the border with Germany skirmishing and delaying, while the main part of the army would actually secretly be at the Hungarina border and even if Hungary helped Germany, as it was outnumber by the Czech army, the majority of the Czech army would in combination with the Romanian and Yugoslavian forces occupy Hungary with czechoslovakia as the dominant of the 3 taking the most of the resources. By this time, France was supposed to have finished mobilizing their army and striked into the undefended Germany, while the USSR would send supplies and troops to czechoslovakia through Romania, as czechoslovakia had excellent ties with Romania and hoped to convince it to allow the USSR. If Romania did, the USSR would send it's troops to the Slovakian mountains, while the army would come from the Hungarian front into the Slovakian armies. The defense army would then retreat slowly into Slovakia, while destroying any factories in the Czech portion. In Slovakia they would enact guerrilla warfare from the mountains against Germany, in hopes of distracting enough troops from the western front. By this time the French would attack through the lightly defended west, securing Rhineland and saar basin, which would be the German economical power house. Either with Britain if France or alone managed to convince them they would send fleets to blockade German ports. The main French army, would meanwhile push into Proper Germany past the Rhineland in conjunction with the czechoslovakia army and the soviet army, which would at the same time hopefully surround the German army in Slovakia and crush it. Then they would go to the original Czechoslovak border, where some would hold the line against Germany, while their secondary army, would go into oberschliessen and unterschliessen (lusatia), which were and are the German version of Sudetenland, where the majority were sorbs, oppressed and wanted to unite with czechoslovakia. Thereby just before the push, the sorbs would be encouraged to peacefully confuse the German army and resist to then be sent weapons by the Czech army in an armed rebellion. This armed rebellion would further weaken Germany as it has a lot of industry. The Czechoslovak army, would so hold a line form the western edge of the sudetenoland to oberschliessen, while France would have Rhineland, areas of Germany proper and Saar. If Germany didn't surrender, the Czechoslovak armies and the French armies would forge a sharedborder in southern Germany, where the armies would go under a common leadership with supplies sent through. From here they would push into the heart of Germany, Berlin. By then Germany would probably surrender and it would probably end with Czechs maybe getting lusatia and French getting the saar basin and an indepedent Rhineland. Obviously this would be made easier with UK help, but they would have a high chance of winning alone together before the Anschluss happened. Even after Anschluss, the plan stayed similar and they still probably would've won together. Although after anscluss, one thing, which changed was that instead of pushing through Lustatia, they would rely on the people there to passively resist and push through Austria, where they also outnumbered the germans securing the front, from where, they would wait for the French advance into Germany proper and 2 or so months later push into lusatia. It would just take longer with more causaulties. If you look at the millitary, it was only after Munich, where in hopes of getting peace, they turned a regional war into a world war and might've lost. Only after Munich was it no longer certain France, czechoslovakia and even Britain would no longer win against Germany. I find it ironic that in hopes of peace, they turned a regional war into a world war. I do wonder why lusatia still belongs under Germany, especcialy after WW2, it should've came to czechoslovakia in my opinion

 

[fyrkrans]

Surely Bulgaria in the free patch?

No, Bulgaria won't get a new NF tree with the upcoming patch (or the DoD DLC for that matter). From another thread:

Bulgaria is a different story. It was in the initial outline and had some research done, but was dropped because we felt we couldn't make it particularly interesting - Bulgaria never joined the war against the Soviet Union, and did as little as they could to stay in the axis. When the Red Army arrived at their borders, they immediately switched sides. Compared to the viper pit that was Romanian internal politics in the period or Hungary's desire to see past wrongs set right, it did not feel like it was worth the effort (assume that it takes us between 3-4 dev-weeks to make a focus tree, plus another dev-week to make the art for the country).

(Click on that ↑ arrow at the beginning of the quote to get to that post.)

 

[macaroni_salad]

anyone else notice how the 38m toldi has a little hat on the turret?

 

[{ThatGuy}Dylan]

My oh my this tree is huge

 

[llib]

Well, they probably could've held against Hungary. In fact, before Anschluss they had a defense plan, which counted on them delivering a quick strike against Hungary. The original Czech defense plan before Anschluss was that they would have border guards at the border with Germany skirmishing and delaying, while the main part of the army would actually secretly be at the Hungarina border and even if Hungary helped Germany, as it was outnumber by the Czech army, the majority of the Czech army would in combination with the Romanian and Yugoslavian forces occupy Hungary with czechoslovakia as the dominant of the 3 taking the most of the resources. By this time, France was supposed to have finished mobilizing their army and striked into the undefended Germany, while the USSR would send supplies and troops to czechoslovakia through Romania, as czechoslovakia had excellent ties with Romania and hoped to convince it to allow the USSR. If Romania did, the USSR would send it's troops to the Slovakian mountains, while the army would come from the Hungarian front into the Slovakian armies. The defense army would then retreat slowly into Slovakia, while destroying any factories in the Czech portion. In Slovakia they would enact guerrilla warfare from the mountains against Germany, in hopes of distracting enough troops from the western front. By this time the French would attack through the lightly defended west, securing Rhineland and saar basin, which would be the German economical power house. Either with Britain if France or alone managed to convince them they would send fleets to blockade German ports. The main French army, would meanwhile push into Proper Germany past the Rhineland in conjunction with the czechoslovakia army and the soviet army, which would at the same time hopefully surround the German army in Slovakia and crush it. Then they would go to the original Czechoslovak border, where some would hold the line against Germany, while their secondary army, would go into oberschliessen and unterschliessen (lusatia), which were and are the German version of Sudetenland, where the majority were sorbs, oppressed and wanted to unite with czechoslovakia. Thereby just before the push, the sorbs would be encouraged to peacefully confuse the German army and resist to then be sent weapons by the Czech army in an armed rebellion. This armed rebellion would further weaken Germany as it has a lot of industry. The Czechoslovak army, would so hold a line form the western edge of the sudetenoland to oberschliessen, while France would have Rhineland, areas of Germany proper and Saar. If Germany didn't surrender, the Czechoslovak armies and the French armies would forge a sharedborder in southern Germany, where the armies would go under a common leadership with supplies sent through. From here they would push into the heart of Germany, Berlin. By then Germany would probably surrender and it would probably end with Czechs maybe getting lusatia and French getting the saar basin and an indepedent Rhineland. Obviously this would be made easier with UK help, but they would have a high chance of winning alone together before the Anschluss happened. Even after Anschluss, the plan stayed similar and they still probably would've won together. Although after anscluss, one thing, which changed was that instead of pushing through Lustatia, they would rely on the people there to passively resist and push through Austria, where they also outnumbered the germans securing the front, from where, they would wait for the French advance into Germany proper and 2 or so months later push into lusatia. It would just take longer with more causaulties. If you look at the millitary, it was only after Munich, where in hopes of getting peace, they turned a regional war into a world war and might've lost. Only after Munich was it no longer certain France, czechoslovakia and even Britain would no longer win against Germany. I find it ironic that in hopes of peace, they turned a regional war into a world war. I do wonder why lusatia still belongs under Germany, especcialy after WW2, it should've came to czechoslovakia in my opinion

Well there were various plans for various situations and then even more concepts and thoughts.
Problem is that by 1938, Yugoslavia was completely unreliable, and nothing could have been expected from it (parts of population were sympathetic but Yugoslavian army would not step in, certainly not if Germany was to be involved.
USSR did not had any land connection, and was very hostile with Poland. Estimates I have read, meant it would take three months to have substantial Soviet forces in whatever would be remaining of Czechoslovakia. By then, Czechoslovakia would have lost most of it's industry and resources, and supply situation would be terrible. There were some big logistical issues with Soviet equipment, they would have to bring lot of their own supply, but the logistics for this were not there.
Poland has effectively left the French global security system, and if anything would put pressure on Czechoslovakia to gain further concessions(and maybe be in open war with Soviets, delaying any effective help from Soviets further).
One big difference would be, Germany would not have the resources it had one year later.
With regards to concentrating on putting Hungary out, with it having borders with Germany, it would almost certainly have some German troops. In that situation even Romania's involvement would be somewhat uncertain, and it would at very least make quick collapse of Hungary very unlikely.
What would the result be?
I would personally guess protracted war, and maybe trench war. It is on one hand unlikely that French army would perform much better then it did one year later. However, German army would be much weaker, and would have much lower numbers of everything, losing large part of it during initial part of war, and quite possibly wouldn't be able to build enough strength for breakthrough. It would also lack in heavy artillery which would make fortifications more effective.
Once France is taken out of picture, the case becomes hopeless.
As for France's decision, as far as I can see it, they suddenly become skeptical about the whole situation. And France was unstable as hell for quite some time. You can think of it as hoping for the best.

 

[Wraith11B]

I have never seen any evidence of this. Can you point to some?

Read, "Between Two Fires" by David Large. Has a whole chapter on the Austrian Civil War in February 1934.

 

[Magnificent Genius]

When German troops invaded Holland, the apocryphal story is that Wilhelm complained about their behaviour. Wasn't 'Little Willy' an ardent Nazi by this time?

K

Wilhelm II was most definitely not a Nazi, nor was he a fan of them.

 

[C-Breeze]

The new 3d art looks good. Cheers for the diary!

 

[Adamgerd]

Well there were various plans for various situations and then even more concepts and thoughts.
Problem is that by 1938, Yugoslavia was completely unreliable, and nothing could have been expected from it (parts of population were sympathetic but Yugoslavian army would not step in, certainly not if Germany was to be involved.
USSR did not had any land connection, and was very hostile with Poland. Estimates I have read, meant it would take three months to have substantial Soviet forces in whatever would be remaining of Czechoslovakia. By then, Czechoslovakia would have lost most of it's industry and resources, and supply situation would be terrible. There were some big logistical issues with Soviet equipment, they would have to bring lot of their own supply, but the logistics for this were not there.
Poland has effectively left the French global security system, and if anything would put pressure on Czechoslovakia to gain further concessions(and maybe be in open war with Soviets, delaying any effective help from Soviets further).
One big difference would be, Germany would not have the resources it had one year later.
With regards to concentrating on putting Hungary out, with it having borders with Germany, it would almost certainly have some German troops. In that situation even Romania's involvement would be somewhat uncertain, and it would at very least make quick collapse of Hungary very unlikely.
What would the result be?
I would personally guess protracted war, and maybe trench war. It is on one hand unlikely that French army would perform much better then it did one year later. However, German army would be much weaker, and would have much lower numbers of everything, losing large part of it during initial part of war, and quite possibly wouldn't be able to build enough strength for breakthrough. It would also lack in heavy artillery which would make fortifications more effective.
Once France is taken out of picture, the case becomes hopeless.
As for France's decision, as far as I can see it, they suddenly become skeptical about the whole situation. And France was unstable as hell for quite some time. You can think of it as hoping for the best.

Firstly, you forget that the USSR could've sent troops through Romania and if Hungary was involved, Yugoslavia and Romania would be involved as the little entente was against Hungarian revanchism and also remember that Romania and Yugoslavia both wanted a weak Hungary so although they probably wouldn't have helped against Germany, they were required to and would've against Hungary and Yugoslavia only became unreliable after Munich, not before. And the French army would perform better, because the Germans wouldn't have attacked through Belgium and Netherlands, so they wouldn't be flanked.

And Germany wouldn't have a border with Hungary before Anschluss, and because of the Czechoslovak fortifications, they barely had the numbers to go past even then and wouldn't really be able to spare much troops to Hungary. And you really think Czech would lose so much land in 3 months. Firstly, they had superior tanks and secondly the German blitzkrieg wouldn't work in mountains or against fortifications. Also about Poland, Czech in fact was creating a plan to gain Czech support, where in return for a Polish alliance or at least poland allowing soviet forces through, Czechoslovakia would give Teschen and any part of slieslia claimed by Poland to Poland along with east Prussia if it also helped against Germany. And this was much more than Germany could offer. Also Czechoslovakia would hold more than 3 months, as it was planned that the fortifications would hold for 6 months, giving enough time for the USSR to come aid and France to finish mobilizing their army. Also why would you think Romania's and Yugoslavian involvement against Hungary was uncertain? They both hated Hungary and neither wanted a stronger Hungary.

Well, they mostly became skeptical, because although the UK-French alliance required that the UK will help any ally of France so long as French is involved, chamberlain didn't want to help czechoslovakia and they were worried that the uK might not give support any more, which would make German blockades harder. However I think that even before Munich agreement, they might've won without Britain. Also Japan and Italy only officially joined the Axis after Munich, so it would've been just Germany and maybe Hungary. And I don't see it as hoping for the best, I see it as betraying an ally and sticking your head in the sand in denial of everything, which says a war will happen. Czechoslovakia was pretty much along with the USSR, Yugoslavia, Romania and France in the start, the only countries which worried about a War against Hungary or Germany. Britain pretty much had their head in the sand, and after Munich, Daladier when applauded said that the French were fools in private. Also the Czechs had a clever system to deal with Slovakian loyalty. As the Slovaks hated the Hungarians, but their loyalty wasn't perfect, they had mainly Slovaks at the Hungarian front as no Slovak would want to fight for Hungary and the Czechs against Germany.