Hitlers ally: China vs Japan

[Foke]

As most of you probably know, there is a choice between siding with either Japan or China in the german focus tree. Japan being the natural choice, i came to think of the alternative. Why not side with China. Isn't that, from a strategic point, a lot better choice?
And here's my argument: The United States.
If you choose not to side with the Japanese, Germany wouldn't be obligated to declare war on the US when Pearl Harbor happens. This would be to great benefit as this means (most likely) no lend lease to the USSR, and therefore a musher better chance of succes for the germans.
At the same time the US would almost prove as an ally for Germany. With only the pacific theatre to worry about, the americans would probably have a lot easier time fighting the Japanese, while in the mean time lend leasing China, as it did historically. This way Japan would be defeated in late 43 or early 44, making China the stronger regional power. With the lend lease from the US, they would likely also be able to defeat PRC, stabilizing the region.
In the mean time chances are that Germany would've beat the soviets (yes i know there's a lot of speculation wether the germans could beat them even without lend lease, but let's just that they were able to) giving them acces to an abundance of ressources and especially the oil they needed.
Chances are that the US would've eventually gone to war with Germany after the japanese was defeated anyway but with only one front to worry about, and with all those russian ressources wouldn't the germans be able to fight them off, until an eventual peacedeal?

 

[MrZodiar]

Perhaps, not siding with Japan can keep the USA out of the European Theatre, for a while at least.

The problems however arise depending on what happens in East Asia during the preparation time.

*What faction wins the civil war in china (Mao or Chiang Kai-shek)? I.e. Mao winning might be a bad choice for the Axis
*If Japan has invaded China through Manchuria, do you really want to side with China and thus defending it from invasion?
* Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't Japan vastly superior to China technologically?

No matter the results I will probably try it during a german playthrough.

 

[Porkman]

As most of you probably know, there is a choice between siding with either Japan or China in the german focus tree. Japan being the natural choice, i came to think of the alternative. Why not side with China. Isn't that, from a strategic point, a lot better choice?
And here's my argument: The United States.
If you choose not to side with the Japanese, Germany wouldn't be obligated to declare war on the US when Pearl Harbor happens. This would be to great benefit as this means (most likely) no lend lease to the USSR, and therefore a musher better chance of succes for the germans.
At the same time the US would almost prove as an ally for Germany. With only the pacific theatre to worry about, the americans would probably have a lot easier time fighting the Japanese, while in the mean time lend leasing China, as it did historically. This way Japan would be defeated in late 43 or early 44, making China the stronger regional power. With the lend lease from the US, they would likely also be able to defeat PRC, stabilizing the region.
In the mean time chances are that Germany would've beat the soviets (yes i know there's a lot of speculation wether the germans could beat them even without lend lease, but let's just that they were able to) giving them acces to an abundance of ressources and especially the oil they needed.
Chances are that the US would've eventually gone to war with Germany after the japanese was defeated anyway but with only one front to worry about, and with all those russian ressources wouldn't the germans be able to fight them off, until an eventual peacedeal?

Lend Lease to the Soviets started before December 7th 1941. The Americans and the Germans were still hostile. The Japanese did bring the Americans into the war, but they were on that path anyway.

Also, it doesn't really help China too much.

The Japanese seize the Chinese coast and are able to interdict any ship by 1938.

The only other alternative routes to supply China are through British Burma or French Indochina. Neither of which are going to amenable to ferrying over German supplies after 1939. Nor will the Americans be too happy to help China if it's a formal Axis partner.

 

[scottchin]

If Germany team up with rochina Japan will not attack US because it's absolutely impossible. Japan simply doesn't have the manpower to do that. If Japan doesn't team up with Germany they will be isolated with no ally since that declared war to China they can't join the allies and their politic situation doen't allow them to join the comintern. In conclusion , Japan can't declare war to US. If Japan was not an axis member the UK won't have to send a bunch of soilders to the pacific and India also uk can send their india soilders to Europe making germany hard to defeat France and Uk and the sea blockade to germany will be a lot stronger. Axis will unlikely declare war to Allies because the result will be just like ww1 they can't face Us soviet france uk in the situation they don't have a navy to fight allies navy .
I think in these terms ww2 will communism and japan vs others. Since the allies hate communism and condemn war and has strong intrest in pacific their ties with Japam will likely sore also in this condition germany can't declare war to Poland because they are against invaders(Japan) they can still expand by politics but they can't declare war as an invader. With both axis and allies anti-communism characteristic there will probably be a anti-communism war (no nuclear weapons).

 

[frolix42]

The reason why Germany allied with Japan was that they had two common enemies, the USA and USSR. Germany knew that it was going to have to go to war with both eventually.

Germany might ally with China, it might send a bit of aupport of China, but this wouldn't effect Chinese policy much at all. China would still want the help from the USA against Japan and align with it.

 

[Antediluvian Monster]

Also, it doesn't really help China too much.

The Japanese seize the Chinese coast and are able to interdict any ship by 1938.

The only other alternative routes to supply China are through British Burma or French Indochina. Neither of which are going to amenable to ferrying over German supplies after 1939. Nor will the Americans be too happy to help China if it's a formal Axis partner.

Indeed. It would be sensible for China to align to Allies at first sign of trouble, because there is ultimately not much Germany can do for them.

And frankly I don't think China would be much use as wartime ally to Germany either. Certainly not if they are busy with Japan and hence can't spare resources elsewhere.

Hence I think success of such alliance depends entirely on what Japan does.

Also, even in the German focus tree the option to befriend either does not lead to anything else. If Germany wants to avoid Japan, for sake of avoiding US, they can do so without helping China.

 

[Bugnr01]

Im going to try the German-China alliance in an ahistorical German playthrought. I think it could work well to take as much land as Germany can without starting ww2 (Austria, Czechia, Danzig for Slovakia) and go the route down to Ally with Italy, Spain and Turkey while staying peacfull in Europa and fighting aganst Japan in the 2nd sino-japanese war and gaining a lot of militray expirience there.
This will maybe lead to a later ww2 in Europe. German attack in 1945 and the experience of the fight aganst Japan schould help aganst England.

The biggest advantage will be the later entry of the US in the war or the enter it in an other faction.

 

[scottchin]

There is always possibility that Germany decided to help China until 1939. Sino-germany ties is super strong to 1937. If Chiang decided to use defence in depth earlier and decided to not sign the sino-comintern non aggression pact the germans will likely to help China .
P.s . Please search sino-german cooperation on wiki.

 

[Blijert]

Ok, let's try to list the benefits of Chinese - German relations:

Pre-war (from Wiki):

• Germany was receiving large quantities of raw materials and food (17% of China's export) via TransSiberia rail / Shipping, as well as establishing many commercial ties.
• China was receiving great industrial and military expertise, along with varying numbers of modern equipment. This aids them a lot in stopping Japan later on.

During War:

• Germany; no trade possible, no resources, a small los in trade and exchange with Japan (never mind the military consequences)
• China; maybe some advisors staying on, training going on, but also no trade
• A likely very different outcome in terms of politics and war, as discussed above by others

Now, this does look bad at start, but in the game terms I would argue that;
a) You will be at war on many fronts anyway,
b) IF you manage to reach China somehow, and trade can be resumed, you basically rule all of North Eurasia with no material shortage of any kind. No-one can stop you then. In comparison with Japan, you won't even have to be afraid of your still tech-lacking ally...

 

[Fulmen]

This would be to great benefit as this means (most likely) no lend lease to the USSR, and therefore a musher better chance of succes for the germans.

The US had been sending armaments and materials to Russia since January 1939, though it was done in secret for the first few years.

 

[scottchin]

In sino-germany cooperation actually germany is the best ally ever throughout China history. Germany benefits from the cooperation by lots of lots of raw materials . China can also be a good ally fighting soviet in 1941 if germany decided to help china in 1937 .
I tried china in hoi3 joining axis earlier than Japan and success to ceasefire with japan in early 1939 after that I conquered mogolia and went north .With Japan fighting soviet in manchuria I can make a big envelope and destroy the entire far east soviet army . I accomplished this only one time it really needs a lot of luck.

 

[Wimpola]

The allies like China. Churchill and Roosevelt wanted Japan to stop expansion in the east so siding with China would be somewhat of a poor choice. China is already receiving lend lease from the allies and choosing them may throw the US into the war early on (Roosevelt wanted to join England in the war before December 7th 1941 but congress wouldnt support). So by choosing China may put you at odds with the US as they highly dont support you and want you out of the ocean near them.

 

[vota dc]

The allies like China. Churchill and Roosevelt wanted Japan to stop expansion in the east so siding with China would be somewhat of a poor choice. China is already receiving lend lease from the allies and choosing them may throw the US into the war early on (Roosevelt wanted to join England in the war before December 7th 1941 but congress wouldnt support). So by choosing China may put you at odds with the US as they highly dont support you and want you out of the ocean near them.

Roosevelt would support China anyway I guess. If Hitler supports China then Churchill would support Japan. It would difficult for Roosevelt to persuade the congress to support UK if they help Japan to expand in Pacific.

 

[Secret Master]

First of all, I see no necessary German DOW against the United States in 1941. The wording of agreements between Japan and Germany did not obligate Germany to a DOW against the US if Japan initiated the war. The Tripartite Pact's wording did not force Germany to DOW the US in the context of Pearl Harbor. Japan had to negotiate for German entry in December, and Germany even ignored their first appeal for help on December 2nd. The "no separate peace with the United States" clause was issued in December 1941 upon declaration of war and was not part of the original wording of the Tripartite Pact.

So, if Japan attacks the USA, Germany is under no obligation to help or assist.

That being said, I see China as a worthless ally for Germany if Germany wants to launch Barbarossa on schedule. China as an ally only makes sense if they have beaten Japan and reclaimed Manchuria (which won't happen by 1941) and are also willing to invade the Soviets (which they may not be after defeating Japan, due to war exhaustion).

Now, if you are running some kind of late-start Germany, China might be more attractive. Help them with war material against Japan before Japan closes the ports, and continue technical advising, until Japan is beaten. Then get Chiang to consent to war against the Soviets in, say, 1943 (gives China time to win), and you might have something interesting.

I still think delaying the war against the Soviets until 1943 is a really bad idea, but China is at least a worthwhile ally at this point.

 

[Victor Cortez]

If you choose not to side with the Japanese, Germany wouldn't be obligated to declare war on the US when Pearl Harbor happens

First of all, I see no necessary German DOW against the United States in 1941. The wording of agreements between Japan and Germany did not obligate Germany to a DOW against the US if Japan initiated the war.
.

This +1 in real life.


In game terms though, I don't know.
In EU4, for example, for reasons that I do not know, you cannot have defensive alliances.

If you're allied to someone and they go to war, you might be called in regardless of whether they're attacking or have been attacked (the only difference being the prestige hit if you refuse to join). This also causes some crazy things like a minor proposing an alliance and the day after you accept they delcare war on France...

 

[The_Meme_Man]

I think the "siding with China" thing might be for the event or possibility for Japan to decide against joining the Axis (since Japan fought against Germany in the first world war). We need to see Japan's national focuses first, but if Japan is able to exhibit some form of opposition against Germany, they might have to get busy with China. However, enough time might need to be bought for China to become competent (basically, if the war can be delayed to 1940, China has a chance of being a someone competent ally).

It might also not be bad if, say, the HoI4 game becomes more of Communist aggression than Fascist aggression (since there is as much of a possibility for it to be Fascists and Capitalists vs Communists or Fascist and Communists vs Capitalists instead of the historic Capitalists and Communists vs. Fascists).

 

[CrasherZZ]

It all depends on what Japan's national focus is. A problem is that we don't know what the focus tree will be for Japan, as far as I know. There really isn't a good reason for Germany to side with China as long as Japan's focus is on taking the colonies of the Allied nations and/or war with the US, since Germany and Japan will then have common enemies. Japan is also a potential ally against the Soviet Union.

The only reason for Germany to side with China is if, for some strange reason, Japan doesn't plan to fight the Allies or the US. In that case, both Japan and China could help Germany subdue the Soviet Union. I could see perhaps, as Germany I would try to create an anti-Soviet bloc in Asia that includes both Japan and China. The problem with that is Japan would lack the resources to help win a war if Japan itself doesn't acquire the resources of China and/or the colonies of the UK, France, and Netherlands. In other words, Japan would need lend-lease from the Axis if it doesn't conquer other countries and colonies.

The least plausible possibility is by Japan joining the Allies, China is invited to join the Axis, or vice versa. Then both countries would need lend lease from their respective factions in order to fight each other and/or the Soviet Union.

 

[Blijert]

.....There really isn't a good reason for Germany to side with China as long as Japan's focus is on taking the colonies.....

The conflicting results of nations taking mutually exclusive national focuses has been boggling my mind lately. For example, what if indeed both the US and Germany choose to actively support and ally China in their focus trees, while China takes the focusses towards forming an independent faction? What faction will they end-up in? How will they decide? Through political influence, or something else completely?

 

[scottchin]

((Most of Chinese leaders are fascists or something like that, even though they are count as an allies member in the late war most of them are still fascist. If germany still support China .China will still be pro-fascist.
It depends on Europe that which faction China will join but comintern will be impossible. If Europe war doesn't trigger early China will end up in anti-comimtern if trigger early axis is their only choice. China won't join allies if stronger ties between gemany and China since they are long term allies and they don't like uk because what uk did in 100 years.

China is forced to join allies historically because they can't join comimtern moreover germany doesn't support China and allied with Japan. allies is their only hope.


China army and Japan army are in the same level some of the chinese divisions(germany trained) are better equipped than the Japanese but the lack on airforce is the reason why they loose in early war.

 

[Kovax]

Secret Master makes a solid point about China being a worthless ally for Germany. Japan had a navy which was a potential threat to the UK, and China didn't. Japan had modern aircraft, China didn't. Japan was ready and willing to strike at Allied assets in Southeast Asia, thereby denying them to France and England, while China was too busy dealing with internal problems. While China's resources served Germany's interests in peacetime, practically any war would cut those resource shipments, and China posed no credible threat to Allied interests in the region. In short, Japan was the obvious choice out of the two for a country preparing for war against the Allies in the near future.

On the other hand, siding with China and sending a small contingent of troops from Germany before Japan seals off the coast was hilarious in HOI3. Getting past the Japanese fleets was a bit of a risk, but I was able to rebase submarines in Chinese ports to use as spotters, making it at least not a complete throw of the dice. My single Corps of German infantry (only half of the divisions with their normal compliment of artillery) was supported by a formation of 3xInterceptors, which completely changed the dynamics of the campaign from the Chinese being under constant air attack to the Japanese airforce too busy running from the Germans to carry out attacks, leaving the couple of weak Chinese air units free to operate with impunity. I (or we) had almost completely driven Japan off the mainland when events in Europe came to a boil, stranding my China Corps on the far side of the planet with no way home. The lack of the Japanese navy in the Axis meant that UK fleets could congregate in the Mediterranean, tearing apart the Italian navy in short order, but the significant amount of early combat experience in China allowed Germany to research its military doctrines at an accelerated pace, leading to a significantly more effective land army. The lack of Japanese threat within the Axis also meant that the US could be kept out of the war almost indefinitely. Definitely an interesting game. I look forward to seeing how it plays out in HOI4.