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I would greatly appreciate an HoI4 dedicated bugfixing team. There are bugs that affect every playthrough and yet they've been in the game since launch. Serious bugs (like the AI never completing capital ships) go unfixed for months.
The most straightforward ways of fixing factions are probably gating AI willingness to join factions behind ideology and surrender progress.
AI countries should avoid joining factions led by other ideologies, especially for countries adhering to "aligned" ideologies (democracy, fascism, communism). To handle ambiguous situations like the Berlin-Moscow Axis, the AI could instead check that at least one major country in the faction adheres to its ideology.
AI countries should avoid joining existing factions if the "faction surrender progress" - the total percentage of victory points lost by all major countries in the faction - is too high. This could be calculated based on the various major countries' actual surrender limits or based on semi-arbitrary thresholds (e.g. 50% of victory points) for simplicity's sake.
Both of the above criteria should affect AI priorities, not absolute willingness to join a faction. If world tension is high enough, AI countries should still attempt to join factions, but prioritize factions with like ideologies that aren't on the brink of military collapse.