You can divide su forces, if italian troops - with minimal german panzer support - are ordered to attack through Turkey, and engage the red army at Tblisi and Baku
It seems Tuscan is not the only person supporting the idea that a German thrust thru Turkey is a good way to improve the chances for a successful Barbarossa. And I have the feeling that many others are inclined to agree with you and Tuscan because -looking at the map - it really does look like a most interesting diversion. I don't like to be odd-man out so I will reiterate why I think both yourself and Tuscon have seriously overlooked the realities of such a campaign.
But first please let me clarify that I too, playing as Germany, also always conquer Turkey. But it has nothing to do with Barbarrosa, Rather it is all about getting my panzers to the Suez Canal and closing the canal. And it occurs in timing with shutting down the Gibralter Straits for the purpose of closing the Med. And I go thru Turkey usually only because the Italians are doing so bad with most of their transports sunk that I don't risk my panzers traveling across Allied dominated seas and would rather run them around safely by land. And of course I want access to the Black Sea - not to attack Soviet Union which, by the time I do it is already defeated, but as a speedy way of getting my and my allies troops BACK OUT of Russia. Having conducted a successful normal Barbarrossa I now have a land connection to the Baku oil, and - most importantly - can place new navy and especially transports directly at Sevastopol so as to build up a considerable German Navy presence in the Black Sea and which can sometimes daringly venture into the eastern end of the Med. It follows that my reasons for taking Turkey are to let me quickly shuttle troops out of Russia to take North Africa and on to the rest of Africa, the Sinai, and India. And it all happens way after Barbarossa is done.
But you guys are supporting the idea of a simultaneous push thru Turkey with the start of Barbarossa. So let me ask you these questions.
1) You say a "mimimal Geman panzer support" for the Italians you order to attack thru Turkey. Do you agree that the same "minimal Panzers" will be what is missing from your panzer force on the German-Soviet Front up in Poland? Not sure I like that. And do you agree for every Italian you order to Turkey you have one less Italian in N. Africa? Not sure I like that either because usually the Italians are taking a shit kicking from all the Commonwealth troops landing at Alexandria. I mean, if your Italians have not even managed yet to amphib behind British lines to take Gaza and Tel Aviv (to seize Suez) don't you think that any panzers you pull out of the Poland line would be better spend preventing the total annilation of the Italian Army in N. Africa? And just how are these "minimal German panzers" and some Italians supposed to take Turkey if you have not even managed to take Gaza and Tel Aviv (which are usually undefended) ?
2) You don't address the diplomaric problem I presented earlier about trying to run thru Greece, so should we assume this "Tblisi-Baku Diversion Attack" starts with an amphibious assault somewhere on Turkey's Mediterranean shore? If so, who is transporting the troops? For sure it will not be you cause you can't get any transports into the Med, right? And if you did place them there before "Danzig or War" we all know you can't keep them afloat until Barbarrossa comes.
3) Or is your idea to conquer Greece first and go by land, and so keep your panzers safe from getting sunk. Well, if you are going thru Greece to reach Turkey, for sure the Greeks will never align with you, and you have created a new enemy that must now be conquered along with the opening of Barbarrossa. Maybe order some more "minimal German panzers", more Italians, some Bulgarians, a few Hungarians and the Romanians are handy to take out Greece. Oops! More infantry just disappeared from the Barbarossa Front and North Africa!
4) And what about the really important fact that - once you defeat Greece - eveything from Kavala in Greece right thru Istanbul and onwards thru Turkey to Baku and Russsia further is going to end up as Bulgaria controlled territory because of the historic "core" claims that Bulgaria has on Kavala? Baku's oil - if you reach it - will be Bulgarian oil and not German olil. I think you just got robbed.
5) But just how do you intend to defeat Turkey with "minimal German panzers" and some war weary Italians you managed to somehow steal away? Your plan does not seem to include any substantial bomber force to help these minimal forces make it across the Bosphorus Straits which, by the way, is totally an amphibious assault. You get -70% for amphib and about another -100% for the tremensous overstacking you will be doing when you pile your troops into Istanbul. You get more minuses because you are attacking a big hill; and you get no pluses because you only got a one angle of attack. But Turkey can counter attack you on a 2 angle attack from Bursa and Izmit. Maybe you think you can even the odds using Romania's two bomber wings with the handful of Bulgarian INTs to defend them. Have you looked at Turkey's airforce? Or its Navy? I think they got you beat on all counts UNLESS you are bringing down German Luftwaffe. Oops! More holes in the Barbarrosa front.
It would be interesting to know your detailed battle plan for reachig Turkey. I say "reaching Turkey" because at this point both yourself and Tuscan have not even mentioned Greece. It is like it doesn't exist for you... an obstacle you will magically pass. Yes, you can skirt Greece starting with an attack on Istanbul from the two Bulgarian provinces of Plovdiv and Varna. But Istanbul and all beyound becones Bulgarian territory. There is no way to get around the" Bulgaria takes everything problem" unless your Italians have sea dominance in the Med and you amphib straight onto Turkey (most unlikely if Gibralter and Suez are open).
However, skirting around Greece is hardly safe because - sooner or later (when you least expect it) Greece will join the Allies and attack you. If it happens when your troops are deeply committed with Barbarrossa and your "Turkey Expedition Force" is deep into Turkey, you could possibly loose not only Bulgaria but maybe Romania too (like annexed by Greece). So I think you need to conquer Greece first before you head off on further adventures, right? Well, better you start a year or so before you open Barbarrossa so you got the Greek problem all sorted out.
In fact I say "Any diversion attack in Turkey will fall far behind the Barbarrossa advance" and if you plan to do it, you should have both Greece and Turkey conquered and garrisoned (or puppetted) and transports in the Black Sea when Barbarossa starts. Now you need only take out the Soviet Black Sea Fleet with your Italian and Romanian NAVs and you can amphib onto Russian shores from Odessa to Baku. In fact, you could send all your German mobile forces to Turkey and - instead of doing a Barbarossa thru the mud of Western Russia - you could pull off a Black Sea Major Assault "(Bla-Sea-Nossa") AND HAVE YOUR PANZERS IN RUSSIA'S HEARTLAND WITHIN WEEKS. Boy, would that turn Soviet heads!
Good luck with your and Tuscan's plan.
FINAL CONSIDERATION:
And I just checked and turns out the Soviet Union indeed guarantees the independence of Turkey. And Turkey guarantees the independence of Greece. Sounds like any venture into Turkey is not a "diversion" but WAR! Now I remember why I attacked Turkey AFTER I had the Reds defeated. Anyway, just go for it.... it will be fun and challenging however it turns out. But this new info clearly nullifies what I said just above about "getting the Greek" problem sorted out a year earlier". Seems like however a Turkey diversionary attack is done, it needs to start same time as Barbarossa.
Add on comment: (added about 3 days later)
I was hoping either Tuscan or mcganol would reply and defend their positions - probably with something appropriate like "I am just an old war horse who is way too cautious and should be put out to pasture"! I just want to say that this is only a Forum, it's all meant for fun, and most certainly I don't want anything I write to discourage any one from participating. Regardless who agrees or disagrees, I am sure we all enjoy reading others conflicting viewpoints and sparring against them. It's Forum. I'm all for new strategies and enjoy discussing opposing viewpoints. If my discussion was in any way discouraging to anyone, I apologize.