Hearts of Iron IV - 24th Development Diary - 11th of September 2015

[Sir Garnet]

Good trade idea.

It does seem that the "seller gets use of the buyer's factories" is an unintuitive and potentially confusing way of describing the simple reality of trade.

The raw materials the buyer wants are being traded for the manufactured/processed goods that the seller wants. That's the fundamental dynamic of foreign trade. Those manufactures show up in game as additional temporary factories for the duration of the trade.

Gold and credit flows are not in the game. They could have been included through a mechanism for "borrowing" factories at one point in time and repaying later the same way, but it is a needless complication (though maybe it could be modded in?) and lend-lease is already in the game.

Financial markets and international finance were devastated by the depression. 1936 is an appropriate time to ignore them. Good idea.

Any embargo is naturally circumvented to some extent, and the ultimate source of what you buy and destination of what you sell when markets are working cannot be known for certain, but in game the buyer can know which country he is dealing with directly in a purchase (even if in reality is is being resold after being acquired elsewhere).

 

[Alliegorical]

On fuel.

Umm...

So there's no resource stockpile. Right?

But you can stockpile what you manufacture. Right?

And you manufacture supplies?

And you "manufacture" fuel...

So there'll be a stockpile of both supplies and fuel.

Right?

This seems to be the most likely case. But if that's the case, I wonder if/how fuel and supplies can be traded or given between allies at war? It really should be possible to stockpile fuel, at least up to a certain amount, since as has been said already, ships and vehicles mainly use fuel while doing things, and use very little when just sitting around. Surely the opening push in Operation Barbarossa was using fuel faster than the Germans were producing it, with the perfectly reasonable expectation that eventually most of the tanks and trucks would stop moving so the stockpile could recover.

 

[Big Nev]

This seems to be the most likely case. But if that's the case, I wonder if/how fuel and supplies can be traded or given between allies at war? It really should be possible to stockpile fuel, at least up to a certain amount, since as has been said already, ships and vehicles mainly use fuel while doing things, and use very little when just sitting around. Surely the opening push in Operation Barbarossa was using fuel faster than the Germans were producing it, with the perfectly reasonable expectation that eventually most of the tanks and trucks would stop moving so the stockpile could recover.

Unless, as actually happened (although not as much as hoped) they manage to capture the enemy stockpiles...

 

[Rauko]

I think you should to put "That's soooo unrealistic and game breaking for me...
Wait. That's hoI 3. In HoI IV..." in your signature. *

Just one teeny tiny disagreement. The rest is fine, really, but...

When France capitulated, Germany (quite famously) recovered a lot of raw materials which supplied their industry with certain scarce &/or strategic resources for a while.

I don't have any numbers, but I remember seeing some presented in the HoI 3 forum so I'm certain there are people here that do.

Or will shoot me down in flames. So long as The Truth gets out.

Can this be "abstracted" by an unrealistically rapid rate of implementing captured industry & resource supplies?


On fuel.

Umm...

So there's no resource stockpile. Right?

But you can stockpile what you manufacture. Right?

And you manufacture supplies?

And you "manufacture" fuel...

So there'll be a stockpile of both supplies and fuel.

Right?


Could we please have a DD on supply?


*Apostrophes added by me 'cause I'm a geek.

Sure they plundered France, not only raw materials but also art, gold and so on. I supose it's reflected by the fact that Germany gains access to all french factories and resource sources (with a malus for ocupations laws).

By no means I am expert in history or do I have exact data, but let's do some (absolutely innacurate) numbers in hoi3 terms:

France may have 300 IC. No country had (except Japan) reserves for more than 30-45 days. 30 days of metal usage for france should make 30*300=9000 metal to plunder all over france. A (rather small) part of this should be in Paris, and the rest in other industrial complexes. If you take Paris, you should take also this part (maybe 4500 metal, at very best).

In hoi3 you take all the national stockpile the day after you take Paris. In a normal play, this could mean 80000 or even 99999 metal.

In hoi IV you take 0. 4500 is closer to 0 than to 80000







ps: this post has apostrophes because I wrote it in a keyboard . The other was written in a phone, with a daugther crying and a second daugther claiming my attention.



pps: also sorry if I made gramatical or orthographic errors



ppps: I do love hoi3. I just wanted to point out that hoi IV looks even better

 

[btxsqdr]

Economy was always a weak spot of the Heart of Iron series. I understand well why it has to be simple, when many other parts are (rather, for at least some of us) complex. So I can only hope that economy and trade make more sense in HOI4 than HOI3. The economic history of WW2 with its many changes alone is a topic of its own and far more influential than a certain tank class or submarine port. But I guess that HOI is perhaps not ready yet for it. I look forward to the factory system and hope that trade will not be as dull as it sounds.

 

[Secret Master]

Ah right so everything you produce gets "used" in a way or another. Isnt that a bit unrealistic though that you cannot stack your resources in case of war for example. You are forced to use materials you dont need or dont want to exchange to another material.

No. It's more realistic than HOI3.

In HOI3, you could stockpile each resource to 99999 (the cap on everything resource related).

So, what I do as Germany in HOI3 is buy 70k rares over a three year period and then feed my industry for the entire war, no need to worry at all.

That's not even close to historical or realistic.

I don't ever run out of fuel as Italy thanks to stockpiling in HOI3. That's not realistic, either. (The Regia Marina spent a large portion of the war not doing anything because of a lack of fuel).

I think the stat most quoted on this was that Japan had oil reserves that would last a year when the oil embargo was imposed (e.g., see here) but this was definitely an outlier. I seem to remember that the oil in the stockpile ended up being only enough for around 6 months, but don't quote me on this - what is true is that by the 1980's Japan was using that much oil every six hours.

Six months. And that was even with attempts to economize.

Hell, the embargo was such a big deal that Japan was willing to go to war to get the needed resources. She was already at war with China and had been at war with them for years. That's how important it was to get a supply of this crucial resource.

The stockpiles in HOI3 were one of the reasons the Axis had far less incentive to even declare wars.

 

[Emre Yigit]

So tell us how much did the various countries actually stockpile? Do you honestly believe that stockpiles were greater than 60-90 days?

Germany and the US did, IIRC.

So, what I do as Germany in HOI3 is buy 70k rares over a three year period and then feed my industry for the entire war, no need to worry at all.

That's not even close to historical or realistic.

I thought that was exactly what Germany did IRL*. Italy wasn't as prepared IRL, though she might have been. I don't know about Japan.

I truly don't understand the inability to stockpile.


and "seller gets use of the buyer's factories" is a really bonkers way of representing things.


* Give me a day or two and I'll find the data.

 

[misterbean]

I thought that was exactly what Germany did IRL. Italy wasn't as prepared IRL, though she might have been. I don't know about Japan.

I truly don't understand the inability to stockpile.


and "seller gets use of the buyer's factories" is a really bonkers way of representing things.

It wouldn't have made sense for Germany to stockpile what we call resources. Think about it. Göring was rearming as fast as he could, at a time when his brains were still fully operational. Do you honestly think he (or Hitler for that matter) would have allowed a couple thousand tons of steel to just accumulate when they could be used to build tanks, battleships and so on?

 

[Emre Yigit]

It wouldn't have made sense for Germany to stockpile what we call resources. Think about it. Göring was rearming as fast as he could, at a time when his brains were still fully operational. Do you honestly think he (or Hitler for that matter) would have allowed a couple thousand tons of steel to just accumulate when they could be used to build tanks, battleships and so on?

Not steel. Chromium and tungsten, IIRC. They ran out of tungsten though and were about to run out of chromium, but the initial stockpile lasted for years. As I said, give me time and I'll dig up the data; there was a piece of (IIRC) US research on this I read a while back.


OK. Here's the first link:

https://books.google.com/books?id=RveyUr-6A4EC&pg=PA15&lpg=PA15&dq=should supplies from Turkey be cut off, the stockpile of chromium is sufficient for only five to six months&source=bl&ots=UGEL-SDpPe&sig=rXvuQnLk55L7Kd2wQ8Xe3weWgjM&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CCAQ6AEwAGoVChMIkMeHuN3-xwIVBAwsCh28dwYb#v=onepage&q=should supplies from Turkey be cut off, the stockpile of chromium is sufficient for only five to six months&f=false

That should tide you over until I find the US research.

 

[Secret Master]

I thought that was exactly what Germany did IRL. Italy wasn't as prepared IRL, though she might have been. I don't know about Japan.

I truly don't understand the inability to stockpile.

Germany was constantly short of various rare materials throughout the entire war (when she wasn't looting them from defeated countries and stockpiles). She did not stockpile so many rare materials that she could have zero imports for them for years on end like you can do in HOI3. Hell, do you know how much effort the Allies put into keeping Portuguese tungsten out of Germany hands? (Only partially successful, I might add.) What about the huge purchases of Soviet resources during 1940 and 1941? In HOI3, I can stockpile so many resources that I can just ignore trade with the Soviets in 1940 if I want. Meanwhile, in the real world, Germany was buying everything the Soviets would sell and planning and invasion to take the rest because it still wasn't enough. Not only that, but even the occupied areas of the Soviet Union that Germany held on to did not alleviate resource shortages. (Like some of Hitler's economic advisors tried to tell him before the war.)

This doesn't even address the oil crisis. In HOI3, I can stockpile enough oil to render the Caucus oilfields irrelevant to the entire war. Meanwhile, in the real war in 1942, Hitler is ordering the German army to attack Stalingrad and other southern targets to get access to the oil in that region. Hitler even said, "If I do not get the oil of Maikop and Grozny then I must finish [liquidieren; "kill off", "liquidate"] this war." For once, he was completely right. The lack of oil hurt Germany from December of 1941 until the end. (Actually, it even hurt Germany before, because there's not point in mechanizing your agriculture to free up labor if you can't fuel the tractors.)

Germany had stockpiles, but the only reason her economy didn't face massive shortages before Barbarossa was because she seized resources in Belgium, the Netherlands, Poland, Denmark, and France while also cutting deals with her neighbors. And even then, it wasn't enough. Germany certainly did not stockpile resources to the point that we could in HOI3, or even close.

Germany couldn't even fully feed herself even after taking the Ukraine. She didn't even have stockpiles of food that could satisfy her needs for years on end.

 

[Emre Yigit]

Germany was constantly short of various rare materials throughout the entire war (when she wasn't looting them from defeated countries and stockpiles). She did not stockpile so many rare materials that she could have zero imports for them for years on end like you can do in HOI3. Hell, do you know how much effort the Allies put into keeping Portuguese tungsten out of Germany hands? (Only partially successful, I might add.) What about the huge purchases of Soviet resources during 1940 and 1941? In HOI3, I can stockpile so many resources that I can just ignore trade with the Soviets in 1940 if I want. Meanwhile, in the real world, Germany was buying everything the Soviets would sell and planning and invasion to take the rest because it still wasn't enough. Not only that, but even the occupied areas of the Soviet Union that Germany held on to did not alleviate resource shortages. (Like some of Hitler's economic advisors tried to tell him before the war.)

This doesn't even address the oil crisis. In HOI3, I can stockpile enough oil to render the Caucus oilfields irrelevant to the entire war. Meanwhile, in the real war in 1942, Hitler is ordering the German army to attack Stalingrad and other southern targets to get access to the oil in that region. Hitler even said, "If I do not get the oil of Maikop and Grozny then I must finish [liquidieren; "kill off", "liquidate"] this war." For once, he was completely right. The lack of oil hurt Germany from December of 1941 until the end. (Actually, it even hurt Germany before, because there's not point in mechanizing your agriculture to free up labor if you can't fuel the tractors.)

Germany had minute (as in 90 day) stockpiles, but the only reason her economy didn't face massive shortages before Barbarossa was because she seized resources in Belgium, the Netherlands, Poland, Denmark, and France while also cutting deals with her neighbors. And even then, it wasn't enough.

Germany couldn't even fully feed herself even after taking the Ukraine. She didn't even have stockpiles of food that could satisfy her needs for years on end.

Fair enough. But the correct answer to "stockpiling to meet years' worth of needs is silly" is not "stockpiling is forbidden."

So, for example, instead of 99999 limits to stockpiles as in HOI3, you could have 9999 or something. But effectively zero doesn't make much sense to me.

And (not related to your copious comments) I wish people would actually state why they "disagree" with statements that are at least partly factual.

 

[Secret Master]

Fair enough. But the correct answer to "stockpiling to meet years' worth of needs is silly" is not "stockpiling is forbidden."

If it is easier to get the economy "right" by setting up the game with no stockpiles, I'm okay with that.

This may be a case where abstraction and game balance mean that you lose something you might otherwise want, though. For example, I personally would love more attributes to play with on variants than what I've seen in the screenshots, but I understand if abstracting it makes the plausible and balanced. And while I might like playing with individual rifle models and machine guns, I understand the reasoning behind the "infantry kit."

When podcat (or was it Johan?) indicated that the goal is to get players to stockpile equipment rather than raw materials to better mimic the historical situation, I said to myself, "Aha! This solves a bunch of small issues in HOI3 that led to silliness."

 

[misterbean]

Ok, so maybe those 3-6 months could be simulated with the "hidden" stockpiles?

 

[ringhloth]

Ok, so maybe those 3-6 months could be simulated with the "hidden" stockpiles?

Podcat mentioned a few months ago that resource shortages don't immediately tank your production, and that it's a gradual thing. So you'll feel the impact of resource shortages right when it hits you, like what would happen in real life (rationing resources doesn't start when they run out, so HoI3 stockpiles are somewhat inaccurate as they are an all or nothing thing, regardless of their size), and it'll gradually get worse and worse. I'm not sure if it's still that way.

 

[Emre Yigit]

If it is easier to get the economy "right" by setting up the game with no stockpiles, I'm okay with that.

I would be too.

Except I've never really seen a Paradox game get the economy right... ...but... if the following is true

Podcat mentioned a few months ago that resource shortages don't immediately tank your production, and that it's a gradual thing. So you'll feel the impact of resource shortages right when it hits you, like what would happen in real life (rationing resources doesn't start when they run out, so HoI3 stockpiles are somewhat inaccurate as they are an all or nothing thing, regardless of their size), and it'll gradually get worse and worse. I'm not sure if it's still that way.

then my fears may be assuaged.

 

[Poh]

Regarding stockpiles or simulation there of we have been told two things.
1. as ringhloth said if you have 100 iron one day and 80 the next, then 90 etc. your ressources doesnt jump like this its a gradual trend from your current value towards the current input. depending on how long this gradual change is it will simulate some type of stockpile.
2. you can still produce equipment even if you do not have 100% ressources. so if you have 100 iron and 20 oil but your production wants 110 iron and 25 oil you will still produce at a decreased rate. however it seemed from something that was said recently that a production does have an essential ressource that needs to be present in some quantity to enable production (if i understood correctly). Like you can produce a tank if you have iron and lack rubber but not if its the other way around.

 

[FOARP]

And (not related to your copious comments) I wish people would actually state why they "disagree" with statements that are at least partly factual.

It's bloody annoying. The only real answer is scrapping the feature - thankfully most of the long-term commenters here follow a gentlemen's agreement and don't use the disagree feature.

When podcat (or was it Johan?) indicated that the goal is to get players to stockpile equipment rather than raw materials to better mimic the historical situation, I said to myself, "Aha! This solves a bunch of small issues in HOI3 that led to silliness."

The worst of which was probably the "Flying Circus" invasions of countries in MP games just to grab their resource stock-piles without occupying them.

Really, the only thing that I wonder about with the present economic set-up is the lack of an arms-trade.

 

[grandad1982]

Podcat mentioned a few months ago that resource shortages don't immediately tank your production, and that it's a gradual thing. So you'll feel the impact of resource shortages right when it hits you, like what would happen in real life (rationing resources doesn't start when they run out, so HoI3 stockpiles are somewhat inaccurate as they are an all or nothing thing, regardless of their size), and it'll gradually get worse and worse. I'm not sure if it's still that way.

Wasn't that in this thread?!

 

[jju_57]

Not steel. Chromium and tungsten, IIRC. They ran out of tungsten though and were about to run out of chromium, but the initial stockpile lasted for years. As I said, give me time and I'll dig up the data; there was a piece of (IIRC) US research on this I read a while back.


OK. Here's the first link:

https://books.google.com/books?id=RveyUr-6A4EC&pg=PA15&lpg=PA15&dq=should supplies from Turkey be cut off, the stockpile of chromium is sufficient for only five to six months&source=bl&ots=UGEL-SDpPe&sig=rXvuQnLk55L7Kd2wQ8Xe3weWgjM&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CCAQ6AEwAGoVChMIkMeHuN3-xwIVBAwsCh28dwYb#v=onepage&q=should supplies from Turkey be cut off, the stockpile of chromium is sufficient for only five to six months&f=false

That should tide you over until I find the US research.

Ah yes good ole Albert and his book. Also, in his book he says that at the end of 1943 the Germans had other stockpiles of anywhere from 6 months to 19 months for various materials. For example, Speer also claimed that Germany had 10.6 months of tungsten in stockpiles at the end of 1943. If that was true how did Germany run short of tungsten in early 1944?

I'll have to find it but also in early 1943 a report by the German High Command states the opposite and in some paper I read was analysis of Speer inflating the numbers to make himself look good. Now let's look at page 317 and see what he wrote:

Chromium Wolframite (tungsten) Just two examples from page 317.
Home Stocks 21,000 tons 1,330 tons (metric tons)
Consumption 3,751 tons 160 tons
Months Reserves 5.6 10.6

I can cite many sources that show the consumption way above these numbers with tungsten being 3,500/yr or 292/mo. So right there we have one discrepancy of 4.5 months vs. 10.6. In addition these stocks were recalled by Speer and the actual memorandum has not survived. He wrote these down while he was in prison months and years later. As for Chromium there are consumption reports from 1942 that show Germany using 59.8K tons for the year. This would change the consumption numbers to 4983/mo and 4.2 months stockpiles. But once again the home stocks are in question.

For every material he lists on page 317 of his book the consumption rates are lower than other reports. Home stocks are extremely hard to verify and he himself doesn't define what they are. In fact he also implies it includes materials that in the pipeline and transit to Germany.

 

[ringhloth]

Wasn't that in this thread?!

I don't think so, unless Podcat mentioned it in a non-dev post, or I'm blind or something.