Has the 'fabricate claim' action been nerfed?

[Trioxis]

So in my current playthrough as a count in Lombardy I've been trying, unsuccessfully, to fabricate a claim on my neighbor for about 40 years now. During that time I've went through 3 or 4 chancellors, one was murdered and the others died a natural death.

Now I know that it's going to take some time to fabricate a claim, and frankly my chancellor's stats suck (<10 diplomacy) so I get a whopping 3.38% chance to fabricate yearly. It's just that lately I've have seen it happen more often I have to wait for half a century or longer for any success. Am I just being paranoid or unlucky?

 

[riadach]

Thought the same in an Irish playthrough. Makes tutorial Ireland impossible.

 

[iniudan]

So in my current playthrough as a count in Lombardy I've been trying, unsuccessfully, to fabricate a claim on my neighbor for about 40 years now. During that time I've went through 3 or 4 chancellors, one was murdered and the others died a natural death.

Now I know that it's going to take some time to fabricate a claim, and frankly my chancellor's stats suck (<10 diplomacy) so I get a whopping 3.38% chance to fabricate yearly. It's just that lately I've have seen it happen more often I have to wait for half a century or longer for any success. Am I just being paranoid or unlucky?

When the 3.38% is basically your yearly chance, so it's quite possible even if unlucky. Also add to that they they might also be getting bribed.

 

[*Aqua*]

You are just unlucky.

Probability is a beast. It doesn't matter if it's at 4% or 40%, you still can have 100 fails before the first win.

 

[Notthemama]

So in my current playthrough as a count in Lombardy I've been trying, unsuccessfully, to fabricate a claim on my neighbor for about 40 years now. During that time I've went through 3 or 4 chancellors, one was murdered and the others died a natural death.

Now I know that it's going to take some time to fabricate a claim, and frankly my chancellor's stats suck (<10 diplomacy) so I get a whopping 3.38% chance to fabricate yearly. It's just that lately I've have seen it happen more often I have to wait for half a century or longer for any success. Am I just being paranoid or unlucky?

I'm starting to get this feeling in my game as well, and I have a chancellor with 17. I'm not sure about Conclave on the whole, and I bought it, so its not like I'm getting my money back. Between the apparently difficulty in fabricating a claim and the ridiculousness of changing the battle in such a fundamental way with the introduction of shattered retreat, it would seem that it is basically impossible to move up from a count at the moment.

 

[shulima]

Now I know that it's going to take some time to fabricate a claim, and frankly my chancellor's stats suck (<10 diplomacy) so I get a whopping 3.38% chance to fabricate yearly. It's just that lately I've have seen it happen more often I have to wait for half a century or longer for any success. Am I just being paranoid or unlucky?

Unlucky, and your chancellor sucks. My chancellor with 15 diplomacy fabricated me claims on two neighboring counties in really short interval, basically right after I finished conquering one, the other popped up.

PS. Onyxia deep breathes more this patch

 

[Bernard95]

It's always been a roll of the dice to say the least- you might get three in a row one generation and none for 50yrs in the next generation. Pretty much the only thing you can do is send and re-send your chancellor, since if he gets bribed he'll never give you the claim.

 

[wolfing]

Just confirmation bias as usual. If your chancellor has 3.38% of fabricating a year, the chance in 50 years of not fabricating a claim is about 18%.

 

[*Aqua*]

Just confirmation bias as usual. If your chancellor has 3.38% of fabricating a year, the chance in 50 years of not fabricating a claim is about 18%.

This applies only if there's a sufficient amount of tries.
The problem of probability is that it's not certainty.

 

[Trioxis]

I would like to add that this isn't something I've noticed starting with Conclave. In one of my earlier playthroughs before the DLC I was sitting around doing nothing for 30 years as an Irish count and as a count in West Francia I had to wait 70 years or so before my first claim was fabricated. As is tradition, once I've had my first one claim other claims were being fabricated within a very short time.

So yeah, probably confirmation bias. Still gets annoying after a couple of decades though.

 

[AngrySnwMnky]

I fabricated two claims over the course of about 10 years with my current ruler. My first one had a 18% yearly chance and it happened quickly . The second was 4% and I got very lucky with a die roll as it happened within 2-3 years.

 

[Notthemama]

Just confirmation bias as usual. If your chancellor has 3.38% of fabricating a year, the chance in 50 years of not fabricating a claim is about 18%.

Except you have no evidence either. Sometimes things do start acting strange, people make note, and it turns out something in the game did change. Having no hard evidence, you resort to the rhetorical gesture of dismissing him by typing 'confirmation bias," as if those magical words dismiss anything he is saying. Besides, he hardly even states it as a fact.It is only something that he wanted to know if other people had noticed, so, if anything, he is displaying behavior the opposite of a "confirmation bias." He is trying to discern is it his own bias or if other people have perceived something as well.

 

[wolfing]

Except you have no evidence either. Sometimes things do start acting strange, people make note, and it turns out something in the game did change. Having no hard evidence, you resort to the rhetorical gesture of dismissing him by typing 'confirmation bias," as if those magical words dismiss anything he is saying. Besides, he hardly even states it as a fact.It is only something that he wanted to know if other people had noticed, so, if anything, he is displaying behavior the opposite of a "confirmation bias." He is trying to discern is it his own bias or if other people have perceived something as well.

Sure, and I'm sure when 10000 people play this game, 1800 will say "yes! it's happening to me too!" (the 18% in the case of chancellors with 3.38% chance). Of course there could be a bug somewhere, but really with only 50 years of evidence and such a bad chancellor it's really no evidence. In any case, I wasn't accusing anybody, just responding that there are no problems and explaining to the OP that what he/she saw is not really that strange.

 

[JRHaggs]

You are just unlucky.

Probability is a beast. It doesn't matter if it's at 4% or 40%, you still can have 100 fails before the first win.

"You are just unlucky" may be a fair assessment.

But the rest of this is crazy vague and unhelpful. Haha.

It does matter if an event's probability is 4% or 40%, unless, for some reason, binary outcomes are of interest. It's sort of like saying, whether it's 5% or 95% likely to rain, it might not rain. Well, yeah, but duh? With probabilitiess, the distribution of potential outcomes is what is being described. So, although "you can still have 100 fails [so true, so often; so many fails] before the first win", the likelihood of success is what we care about. And an order of magnitude difference in likelihood is super informative with respect to one's reasonable expectations of success.

None of this, of course, is helpful in answering the OP's question, but I just can't help biting at a baited hook. Sorry, Aqua. Nothing personal.

 

[jpinard]

Maybe the game should take note of the human player, the % chance should go up very slightly every year the Councilor is positioned there and doesn't move. It makes sense for this mechanic to be implemented because the longer a person is trying to fabricate claims, the more knowledge he has of the area and inner workings of the county.

 

[Trioxis]

Quick update: after 66 years it has finally happened, the claim has been fabricated.

I happen to agree with jpinard, there should be a mechanic where the odds to successfully fabricate a claim increases after a while. If you're unlucky, as I have been, it can literally take generations to succeed. While it may project some realism, I feel that having to babysit your single county for 50+ years is getting old real fast. Maybe there should be a mechanic where fabricating claims is faster/more successful for those with a smaller demesne and slower once you grow to a certain size, but not make it impossible. In the end though, it's still luck of the draw.

 

[heliostellar]

It's not worth it to fabricate a claim with such a low diplo chancellor. I would try to groom a few really good diplomats and use the improve relations to do it. Suck up to another king and ask him to have his chancellor educate some courtier children.

 

[iniudan]

It's not worth it to fabricate a claim with such a low diplo chancellor. I would try to groom a few really good diplomats and use the improve relations to do it. Suck up to another king and ask him to have his chancellor educate some courtier children.

Well if he has Conclave that won't really help. =p

But much easier to invite people with Conclave, as can invite people on a favor if they like you enough even if they really like their liege.

 

[Trioxis]

Well I did switch my chancellor for one with a higher skill (13 or 14) shortly afterwards, but it still took that guy a long time to get a claim. Getting a high diplo courtier from some other court isn't a guarantee either, they can still get bribed or murdered or may die from disease/stress/whatever before they can complete their task.

 

[etf2]

Damn the thought of spending 40 years with a 10 skill chancellor is giving me physical pain.