Guarantee is dumb

[Magnificent Genius]

Ummm, I'm not certain that this is actually only a problem in MP. The reason I haven't played HoI4 in a while is because during my last game, as Poland, by the time I was able to start fabricating on Romania, Japan had almost declared war on China. Before my justification was done, Japan declared war, and up went the guarantees.

It was frustrating enough that I haven't played in 2017.

 

[hkrommel]

He is saying, that Winter War was fought to demonstrate that SU cannot help France by attacking Germany from the east. In my opinion, that logic is false, but it is fairly sound.

So Stalin purposefully attacked Finland and was humiliated so he wouldn't attack Germany due to a non-existent alliance with France? He was under no obligation to do so. I fail to see how that logic is even sound, let alone plausible.

 

[Opanashc]

So Stalin purposefully attacked Finland and was humiliated so he wouldn't attack Germany due to a non-existent alliance with France? He was under no obligation to do so. I fail to see how that logic is even sound, let alone plausible.

Oi, you are preaching to the quire.

 

[cat013]

So Stalin purposefully attacked Finland and was humiliated so he wouldn't attack Germany

On the contrary he totally would right when the German army would be stuck at new Verdun. The problem was convincing Hitler that it was safe to move all his troops to the west. Now, 3 countries were at war with Germany: UK, France and so called Polish government in exile. The latter officially declared that they are at war with USSR and the other two openly boasted about how they would totally fight Stalin over Finland...

 

[hkrommel]

On the contrary he totally would right when the German army would be stuck at new Verdun. The problem was convincing Hitler that it was safe to move all his troops to the west. Now, 3 countries were at war with Germany: UK, France and so called Polish government in exile. The latter officially declared that they are at war with USSR and the other two openly boasted about how they would totally fight Stalin over Finland...

So Stalin wanted Germany to be distracted while his totally inept army attacked them from behind, expected a quick diversionary war in Finland, and wasn't able to attack Germany because he got bogged down by the Finns? I find that doubtful. Stalin was definitely power-hungry and was going to confront Germany at some point, but why would he backstab Germany before they defeated France? Then he would just be at war with the (much stronger than in reality) Allies while he had a weakened army after Germany fell, and that's if everything goes completely to plan. More likely the Soviets fail miserably since their army was in such a sorry state in 1940. Either way it seems like something Stalin, who was cautious to the absolute extreme, would not have tried.

 

[Opanashc]

Stalin was trying to preserve USSR. Plan A was to avoid a war. Failed in 1939. Plan B was to be involved in war after others have exhausted themselves. Failed in June 1940, with the fall of France. Plan C was to avoid confrontations with Germany, so as to not provoke a war via "incidents" like lake Khasan or Khalhin-Gol. Failed in June 1941. UK plans of 1938, of placating Germany with Sudetenland also failed. Allied hopes of German-Soviet war in 1939/40 also failed. Germany's plans of small war against Poland only - failed, of UK accepting Germany's hegemony in Europe and suing for peace after Poland fell also failed, same plan after France fell - failed as well. A lot of plans failed, because nobody could predict 100% of what the others would do.

 

[cat013]

and wasn't able to attack Germany because he got bogged down by the Finns?

No - because the countries at war with Germany were openly hostile to Stalin. Finns were not supposed to be a problem at all (as Soviet intelligence badly screwed this time miscalculating their strength).

 

[Dalwin]

While at war with Germany, they contemplated bombing Baku oilfields belonging to SU. That should tell you something.

Yeah that tells you that they didn't want Germany capturing the oil. Now I fail so see how that is the same as being concerned about some minor scuffle on the other side of the planet.

And, no it was not planned against Stalin. It was a contingency in the event of Russian failure to hold the Caucuses. That is little different from bombing France between the time it fell and Overlord. You are aware that a bit of that actually happened, right?

 

[cat013]

Yeah that tells you that they didn't want Germany capturing the oil.

Just a small problem with this theory: in dec 1939 - jan 1940 Germans in Baku were not even a hypothetical threat. Come to think of that, USSR was not even at war with Germany at that moment. Surprise, yeah.

 

[Dalwin]

Just a small problem with this theory: in dec 1939 - jan 1940 Germans in Baku were not even a hypothetical threat. Come to think of that, USSR was not even at war with Germany at that moment. Surprise, yeah.

You have a pretty low opinion of the military in general I guess. They make contingencies for a lot of things.

I have no doubt that somewhere there are plans for a US invasion of Canada. Should the Canadians be nervous? Not at all. Tings would have gotten very bad for them long before any such plans would be dusted off.

With Germany having the strong position that they did have, it is not that far fetched to imagine a situation in which they could be threatening the Caucuses. You will notice that even in the summer of 1942 when this came closest to becoming reality, no such bombing took place.

 

[hkrommel]

Stalin was trying to preserve USSR. Plan A was to avoid a war. Failed in 1939.

Yeah it's pretty hard to avoid wars when you attack/annex/threaten your neighbors with reckless abandon

To the larger point look at what Dalwin said. Militaries plan for everything, and the Allies didn't bomb Baku when it was under the highest threat of the war because it was an action of last resort.

 

[kettyo]

I think Allied (or Allied AI) guarantee threshold is 35%, at least in 1.3.2

 

[cat013]

With Germany having the strong position that they did have, it is not that far fetched to imagine a situation in which they could be threatening the Caucuses. You will notice that even in the summer of 1942 when this came closest to becoming reality, no such bombing took place.

I would be very nervous if I were Canadian - invasion to Canada would be phase 1 of US war against UK, which was very definitely possible in 1935-39.

You are assessing the situation in hindsight, not by the eyes of a guy from 1939 - and back then nobody considered German position strong. (Unless you want to claim that everybody and their granny saw the French collapse coming in just a few months.)

 

[cat013]

Yeah it's pretty hard to avoid wars when you attack/annex/threaten your neighbors with reckless abandon

Please remind me exactly what was attacked-annexed-threatened by Stalin by the late August of 1939?

 

[hkrommel]

I would be very nervous if I were Canadian - invasion to Canada would be phase 1 of US war against UK, which was very definitely possible in 1935-39.

You are assessing the situation in hindsight, not by the eyes of a guy from 1939 - and back then nobody considered German position strong. (Unless you want to claim that everybody and their granny saw the French collapse coming in just a few months.)

Plan for everything means plan for everything. And no, war against the U.K. was very, very far from possible from a US standpoint. Remember that whole isolationism thing where it took a surprise attack on a naval base to get the US into the war?

Please remind me exactly what was attacked-annexed-threatened by Stalin by the late August of 1939?

Where the heck did late August come from to be the standard? As for 1939 in general: Poland and Japan. Japan was a bit muddier but tensions go both ways. The point was larger though to include the subsequent invasion of Finland and annexations of Romanian territory, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The Soviets also went on to invade Iran.

 

[that-guy-is-it]

Its almost like a nation conquering the world with no opposition is unrealistic or something.

 

[browd]

Where the heck did late August come from to be the standard?

Probably because August 23 (or so), 1939 is the most common date on which the German-Polish war breaks out. That is the date that results from stacking 19 70-day focuses (Danzig or War being the 19th focus).

 

[cat013]

Where the heck did late August come from to be the standard?

Well, you put it to us that USSR failed to avoid the war (started in Sep 1939, at least on my planet) by annexing left, right and middle, and stuff. So, again, what was annexed BEFORE the war? I cheated through my logic exam and even I know that the cause normally precedes the consequence.

 

[hkrommel]

Well, you put it to us that USSR failed to avoid the war (started in Sep 1939, at least on my planet) by annexing left, right and middle, and stuff. So, again, what was annexed BEFORE the war? I cheated through my logic exam and even I know that the cause normally precedes the consequence.

Apparently you cheated through your reading comprehension exam too. The original quote (not mine) that I was responding to was that the Stalin was trying to avoid "a war". Not the war, but war in general.

Stalin was trying to preserve USSR. Plan A was to avoid a war.

Using our newfound reading comprehension skills we can then surmise that I was stating that it is hard to avoid war in general by threatening, invading, or annexing neighbors (whole or part). It then follows that all such aggressive actions undertaken by the Soviets in this regard would fall under my original reply to that point, including but not limited to the M-R Pact, the skirmishes with Japan, the invasion of Poland, the invasion of Finland, the annexations of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, the invasion of Iran, and the annexation of Romanian territory.

 

[cat013]

Ok, Mr Reading Ed, how did the alleged plan to avoid *a* war fail in 1939, as opposed to any other year when *a* war started?