Neither makes much sense. Ryukyu is animist, which is just bad, as well as unable to get trade companies and the only Japanese tag who can't become Shogun for infinite vassals. I'd rather do another country first to learn the ropes before diving into that. Ulm also has less going for it than other HRE nations like, say, Hamburg or Lübeck who at least have a good trade node and semi-easy access to colonization.
There actually is a way to get Ryukyu to be shogun, and you can even avoid no-CB war. There's a video on how to do it on YouTube.
That said the strongest OPM start for one-tag WC will be an OPM horde or tribal nation that goes into horde with government reform, because razing is just that strong. You could make a case for shogun vassal spam if you just want WC achievement, same for any random European OPM going revolutionary and ignoring relations cap late game.
Italian minor should be a good candidate too, Italy has big CCR and this is a rich area with easy institution stuff.
If you limit yourself by not allowing to switch religion at least once you are just artificially make things unbearable for tags like that.
OP's rules allow for switching within-group, so Ryukyu would likely just go Tengri. Could sync to Shinto at first, then something like Mahayana or Hindu later for 3 heathen tolerance everywhere.