I have recently played Hawaii in Vic2 and the single-location nation has revealed some glaring errors in the way that Paradox developors factored in statistics to produce rebellion numbers. Like - way off, the kind of error that should have been pointed out when this game was in initial testing, it's so far off.
First, bear in mind I am playing the game with all DLCs, the full game, so nothing is missing in my Vic2 game.
In the Politics area, Movements tab, you can view there the Movements and Rebellions brewing in your nation.
At this time, Hawaii has progressed to form a new government, a Democracy run by the Constitutionalists party, but also has a Communist party, and Communism is starting to take hold among the Craftsmen in my factories.
To point out the Glaring Error, here are the statistical breakdowns:
- In the Rebellions view under Politics>Movements, it shows 14.02K "Hawaiian Communists" in the brewing rebellion group, with 6x possible Brigades that could rise up against the Democracy. I thought this odd, and a bit high, and it's easier to catch these numbers when you play a single-location nation like Hawaii. So I went digging a bit.
- In the Population area, when I sort the entire spreadsheet by "Rebel Faction" with the Communists on top rows, there are just 2x groups of Rebel Factions, but what I found next started to prove out my theory, no matter how I did the math.
- First Method: The 2x Rebel Factions that were Communists, in Grand Total, added up (11019+3004) to be 14023, which seems to be a 1-for-1 match to my brewing rebellion group at 14.02K. But this is totally FALSE, because each Icon has a breakout of Ideology, right? I hover over the Pie Chart to see, that group A is 9.0% Communist, 23.9% Socialist; and group B is 9.6% Communist, 25.6% Socialist. So if these 2x icons of people represent 100% of the rebellion's numbers, and if only Communists are participating, then there should only be (11019x9%) + (3004x9.6%) = 1283. Even if I include the Socialists it's (11019x23.9%) + (3004x25.6%) = 3403, add in Communists = 4686. Clearly, a misrepresentation of the number of people joining in this Rebellion. But then I try another method:
- Second Method, total Communist population: I'm not just Hawaiian islands, I've conquered a bit, after all, because the Americans are coming soon to take me over and I'd better grow and expand a bit. So I have a total population of 303,360. In my total population, it is 4.5% Communist. Doing the math, I have a total of 13651 Communists across the whole nation, not all of which is on the Hawaiian islands (so it would be illogical that this entire group rises up in the middle of the Pacific when they're spread out). And, this number doesn't match either, of course. If I added in Socialists here, it's imbalancing, and the entire group of Communists + Socialists would be 90401, more than my entire population on the Hawaiian Island portion of the nation. So then let's try the single-location only theory next:
- Third Method, isolating single-location only to numbers: On the Hawaiian Islands location, of the 3x locations total that my nation has sprawled to, could be the hotbed of Communism, and logically you could factor out all the Communists per the Pie Charts, for each icon in that one location. So I won't enter all the icon numbers here (would be lots of parenthesis), nor all the varying percentages of Communists in each icon group, but they trend between a low of 3.2% to high of 15.3%, with a grand total of 3083, which is a much more logical number, considering the entire island only has 56920 total population at this stage of my game. Hardly something to worry about, right?
So why am I worried? Well, you don't produce many soldiers from a population of 56920, but the game says I have over 14000 people about to rebel, and they're going to do it on top of my capital!
In any case, there are huge problems with the way the Developers decided to code in icons and how they factor out to actions in the game, for social variables. Proportional should have been the way to go, that proportions of single-icons in the game, would act out based on their Ideological breakdown. 100% of a specific group doesn't go and do something, but that's what's being implied here, that 100% of all Craftsmen, just because they all work in the factory, have collectively decided that they are going to rise up together to overthrow the government. It doesn't work that way - only 9% even agree with the ideology, which is higher than average for the entire society (all Hawaii only 4.5% communist).
What am I missing here? Why did the Dev's lump in 100% of the icon into actions, rather than proportionally using the statistics that they themselves created and provided for themselves? It's like they tied one hand behind their back, or purposely ignored their own work (especially their own Pie Charts!).
My fix would be - take all icon groups for a location, and factor out the ideology from Pie Charts and apply that number toward action. Bundle them with other icons that have like-ideology, and keep the actions by-location when more logical, or nation-wide as applicable.
First, bear in mind I am playing the game with all DLCs, the full game, so nothing is missing in my Vic2 game.
In the Politics area, Movements tab, you can view there the Movements and Rebellions brewing in your nation.
At this time, Hawaii has progressed to form a new government, a Democracy run by the Constitutionalists party, but also has a Communist party, and Communism is starting to take hold among the Craftsmen in my factories.
To point out the Glaring Error, here are the statistical breakdowns:
- In the Rebellions view under Politics>Movements, it shows 14.02K "Hawaiian Communists" in the brewing rebellion group, with 6x possible Brigades that could rise up against the Democracy. I thought this odd, and a bit high, and it's easier to catch these numbers when you play a single-location nation like Hawaii. So I went digging a bit.
- In the Population area, when I sort the entire spreadsheet by "Rebel Faction" with the Communists on top rows, there are just 2x groups of Rebel Factions, but what I found next started to prove out my theory, no matter how I did the math.
- First Method: The 2x Rebel Factions that were Communists, in Grand Total, added up (11019+3004) to be 14023, which seems to be a 1-for-1 match to my brewing rebellion group at 14.02K. But this is totally FALSE, because each Icon has a breakout of Ideology, right? I hover over the Pie Chart to see, that group A is 9.0% Communist, 23.9% Socialist; and group B is 9.6% Communist, 25.6% Socialist. So if these 2x icons of people represent 100% of the rebellion's numbers, and if only Communists are participating, then there should only be (11019x9%) + (3004x9.6%) = 1283. Even if I include the Socialists it's (11019x23.9%) + (3004x25.6%) = 3403, add in Communists = 4686. Clearly, a misrepresentation of the number of people joining in this Rebellion. But then I try another method:
- Second Method, total Communist population: I'm not just Hawaiian islands, I've conquered a bit, after all, because the Americans are coming soon to take me over and I'd better grow and expand a bit. So I have a total population of 303,360. In my total population, it is 4.5% Communist. Doing the math, I have a total of 13651 Communists across the whole nation, not all of which is on the Hawaiian islands (so it would be illogical that this entire group rises up in the middle of the Pacific when they're spread out). And, this number doesn't match either, of course. If I added in Socialists here, it's imbalancing, and the entire group of Communists + Socialists would be 90401, more than my entire population on the Hawaiian Island portion of the nation. So then let's try the single-location only theory next:
- Third Method, isolating single-location only to numbers: On the Hawaiian Islands location, of the 3x locations total that my nation has sprawled to, could be the hotbed of Communism, and logically you could factor out all the Communists per the Pie Charts, for each icon in that one location. So I won't enter all the icon numbers here (would be lots of parenthesis), nor all the varying percentages of Communists in each icon group, but they trend between a low of 3.2% to high of 15.3%, with a grand total of 3083, which is a much more logical number, considering the entire island only has 56920 total population at this stage of my game. Hardly something to worry about, right?
So why am I worried? Well, you don't produce many soldiers from a population of 56920, but the game says I have over 14000 people about to rebel, and they're going to do it on top of my capital!
In any case, there are huge problems with the way the Developers decided to code in icons and how they factor out to actions in the game, for social variables. Proportional should have been the way to go, that proportions of single-icons in the game, would act out based on their Ideological breakdown. 100% of a specific group doesn't go and do something, but that's what's being implied here, that 100% of all Craftsmen, just because they all work in the factory, have collectively decided that they are going to rise up together to overthrow the government. It doesn't work that way - only 9% even agree with the ideology, which is higher than average for the entire society (all Hawaii only 4.5% communist).
What am I missing here? Why did the Dev's lump in 100% of the icon into actions, rather than proportionally using the statistics that they themselves created and provided for themselves? It's like they tied one hand behind their back, or purposely ignored their own work (especially their own Pie Charts!).
My fix would be - take all icon groups for a location, and factor out the ideology from Pie Charts and apply that number toward action. Bundle them with other icons that have like-ideology, and keep the actions by-location when more logical, or nation-wide as applicable.
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