Glaring Error in Vic2 for factoring rebellions

Glaring Error in Vic2 for factoring rebellions

  • Crusader Kings III Available Now!

    The realm rejoices as Paradox Interactive announces the launch of Crusader Kings III, the latest entry in the publisher’s grand strategy role-playing game franchise. Advisors may now jockey for positions of influence and adversaries should save their schemes for another day, because on this day Crusader Kings III can be purchased on Steam, the Paradox Store, and other major online retailers.


    Real Strategy Requires Cunning

Nuclear Elvis

Private
41 Badges
Sep 25, 2019
18
3
  • Arsenal of Democracy
  • Europa Universalis IV: Dharma
  • Europa Universalis IV: Rule Britannia
  • Europa Universalis IV: Cradle of Civilization
  • Europa Universalis IV: Art of War
  • Europa Universalis IV: Conquest of Paradise
  • Europa Universalis IV: Wealth of Nations
  • Europa Universalis IV: Call to arms event
  • Europa Universalis IV: Mandate of Heaven
  • Europa Universalis IV: Common Sense
  • Europa Universalis IV: El Dorado
  • Europa Universalis IV: Res Publica
  • Stellaris: Galaxy Edition
  • Prison Architect
  • Age of Wonders II
  • Age of Wonders
  • Age of Wonders: Shadow Magic
  • Age of Wonders III
  • Crusader Kings Complete
  • Stellaris: Galaxy Edition
  • Stellaris: Galaxy Edition
  • Stellaris
  • Victoria 2
  • Knights of Pen and Paper 2
  • Pillars of Eternity
  • Europa Universalis III: Collection
  • Victoria 2: A House Divided
  • Crusader Kings II
  • Darkest Hour
  • Europa Universalis III
  • Divine Wind
  • For The Glory
  • Heir to the Throne
  • Knights of Pen and Paper +1 Edition
  • Magicka
  • Majesty 2 Collection
  • Rome Gold
  • Rome: Vae Victis
  • Victoria 2: Heart of Darkness
  • Victoria: Revolutions
I have recently played Hawaii in Vic2 and the single-location nation has revealed some glaring errors in the way that Paradox developors factored in statistics to produce rebellion numbers. Like - way off, the kind of error that should have been pointed out when this game was in initial testing, it's so far off.

First, bear in mind I am playing the game with all DLCs, the full game, so nothing is missing in my Vic2 game.

In the Politics area, Movements tab, you can view there the Movements and Rebellions brewing in your nation.
At this time, Hawaii has progressed to form a new government, a Democracy run by the Constitutionalists party, but also has a Communist party, and Communism is starting to take hold among the Craftsmen in my factories.

To point out the Glaring Error, here are the statistical breakdowns:
- In the Rebellions view under Politics>Movements, it shows 14.02K "Hawaiian Communists" in the brewing rebellion group, with 6x possible Brigades that could rise up against the Democracy. I thought this odd, and a bit high, and it's easier to catch these numbers when you play a single-location nation like Hawaii. So I went digging a bit.
- In the Population area, when I sort the entire spreadsheet by "Rebel Faction" with the Communists on top rows, there are just 2x groups of Rebel Factions, but what I found next started to prove out my theory, no matter how I did the math.
- First Method: The 2x Rebel Factions that were Communists, in Grand Total, added up (11019+3004) to be 14023, which seems to be a 1-for-1 match to my brewing rebellion group at 14.02K. But this is totally FALSE, because each Icon has a breakout of Ideology, right? I hover over the Pie Chart to see, that group A is 9.0% Communist, 23.9% Socialist; and group B is 9.6% Communist, 25.6% Socialist. So if these 2x icons of people represent 100% of the rebellion's numbers, and if only Communists are participating, then there should only be (11019x9%) + (3004x9.6%) = 1283. Even if I include the Socialists it's (11019x23.9%) + (3004x25.6%) = 3403, add in Communists = 4686. Clearly, a misrepresentation of the number of people joining in this Rebellion. But then I try another method:
- Second Method, total Communist population: I'm not just Hawaiian islands, I've conquered a bit, after all, because the Americans are coming soon to take me over and I'd better grow and expand a bit. So I have a total population of 303,360. In my total population, it is 4.5% Communist. Doing the math, I have a total of 13651 Communists across the whole nation, not all of which is on the Hawaiian islands (so it would be illogical that this entire group rises up in the middle of the Pacific when they're spread out). And, this number doesn't match either, of course. If I added in Socialists here, it's imbalancing, and the entire group of Communists + Socialists would be 90401, more than my entire population on the Hawaiian Island portion of the nation. So then let's try the single-location only theory next:
- Third Method, isolating single-location only to numbers: On the Hawaiian Islands location, of the 3x locations total that my nation has sprawled to, could be the hotbed of Communism, and logically you could factor out all the Communists per the Pie Charts, for each icon in that one location. So I won't enter all the icon numbers here (would be lots of parenthesis), nor all the varying percentages of Communists in each icon group, but they trend between a low of 3.2% to high of 15.3%, with a grand total of 3083, which is a much more logical number, considering the entire island only has 56920 total population at this stage of my game. Hardly something to worry about, right?

So why am I worried? Well, you don't produce many soldiers from a population of 56920, but the game says I have over 14000 people about to rebel, and they're going to do it on top of my capital!

In any case, there are huge problems with the way the Developers decided to code in icons and how they factor out to actions in the game, for social variables. Proportional should have been the way to go, that proportions of single-icons in the game, would act out based on their Ideological breakdown. 100% of a specific group doesn't go and do something, but that's what's being implied here, that 100% of all Craftsmen, just because they all work in the factory, have collectively decided that they are going to rise up together to overthrow the government. It doesn't work that way - only 9% even agree with the ideology, which is higher than average for the entire society (all Hawaii only 4.5% communist).

What am I missing here? Why did the Dev's lump in 100% of the icon into actions, rather than proportionally using the statistics that they themselves created and provided for themselves? It's like they tied one hand behind their back, or purposely ignored their own work (especially their own Pie Charts!).

My fix would be - take all icon groups for a location, and factor out the ideology from Pie Charts and apply that number toward action. Bundle them with other icons that have like-ideology, and keep the actions by-location when more logical, or nation-wide as applicable.
 
  • 2
Reactions:

Amtep

First Lieutenant
52 Badges
Nov 20, 2017
267
160
  • Crusader Kings II
  • Europa Universalis IV: Mare Nostrum
  • Stellaris: Synthetic Dawn
  • Tyranny: Archon Edition
  • Stellaris: Lithoids
  • Stellaris: Digital Anniversary Edition
  • Stellaris: Leviathans Story Pack
  • Crusader Kings II: Monks and Mystics
  • Stellaris - Path to Destruction bundle
  • Europa Universalis IV: Mandate of Heaven
  • BATTLETECH
  • Surviving Mars
  • Europa Universalis IV: Cradle of Civilization
  • Stellaris: Humanoids Species Pack
  • Stellaris: Apocalypse
  • Europa Universalis IV: Rule Britannia
  • Stellaris: Distant Stars
  • Europa Universalis IV: Dharma
  • Crusader Kings II: Holy Fury
  • Europa Universalis IV: Golden Century
  • Imperator: Rome Deluxe Edition
  • BATTLETECH: Heavy Metal
  • Stellaris: Ancient Relics
  • BATTLETECH: Season pass
  • Crusader Kings II: Reapers Due
  • Victoria 2
  • Europa Universalis IV: El Dorado
  • Crusader Kings II: Way of Life
  • Europa Universalis IV: Common Sense
  • Europa Universalis IV: Cossacks
  • Crusader Kings II: Horse Lords
  • Crusader Kings II: Conclave
  • Stellaris
  • Europa Universalis IV: Rights of Man
  • Crusader Kings II: Charlemagne
  • Crusader Kings II: Legacy of Rome
  • Crusader Kings II: The Old Gods
  • Crusader Kings II: Rajas of India
  • Crusader Kings II: The Republic
  • Crusader Kings II: Sons of Abraham
  • Crusader Kings II: Sword of Islam
  • Europa Universalis IV: Wealth of Nations
  • Victoria 2: A House Divided
  • Crusader Kings II: Jade Dragon
  • Victoria 2: Heart of Darkness
  • Europa Universalis IV: Res Publica
  • Europa Universalis IV: Conquest of Paradise
  • Europa Universalis IV: Art of War
  • BATTLETECH: Flashpoint
I think the logic is that these craftsmen pops will rebel because they're unhappy, not because they're particularly communist. Then it figures that for various reasons (the factors that go into the "rebel type" calculation) the communists will lead that rebellion.

I don't think it's unrealistic. After all I don't think the majority of Russians in 1918 had communist ideology, but the Red Army as a whole did fight to install a communist government.

What's more unrealistic is that 6 full brigades (18000 troops plus support) are going to rise up out of your 14000 craftsmen. But then, soldier counts generally don't make sense in vic2,
 
  • 2
Reactions:

Nuclear Elvis

Private
41 Badges
Sep 25, 2019
18
3
  • Arsenal of Democracy
  • Europa Universalis IV: Dharma
  • Europa Universalis IV: Rule Britannia
  • Europa Universalis IV: Cradle of Civilization
  • Europa Universalis IV: Art of War
  • Europa Universalis IV: Conquest of Paradise
  • Europa Universalis IV: Wealth of Nations
  • Europa Universalis IV: Call to arms event
  • Europa Universalis IV: Mandate of Heaven
  • Europa Universalis IV: Common Sense
  • Europa Universalis IV: El Dorado
  • Europa Universalis IV: Res Publica
  • Stellaris: Galaxy Edition
  • Prison Architect
  • Age of Wonders II
  • Age of Wonders
  • Age of Wonders: Shadow Magic
  • Age of Wonders III
  • Crusader Kings Complete
  • Stellaris: Galaxy Edition
  • Stellaris: Galaxy Edition
  • Stellaris
  • Victoria 2
  • Knights of Pen and Paper 2
  • Pillars of Eternity
  • Europa Universalis III: Collection
  • Victoria 2: A House Divided
  • Crusader Kings II
  • Darkest Hour
  • Europa Universalis III
  • Divine Wind
  • For The Glory
  • Heir to the Throne
  • Knights of Pen and Paper +1 Edition
  • Magicka
  • Majesty 2 Collection
  • Rome Gold
  • Rome: Vae Victis
  • Victoria 2: Heart of Darkness
  • Victoria: Revolutions
I think the logic is that these craftsmen pops will rebel because they're unhappy, not because they're particularly communist. Then it figures that for various reasons (the factors that go into the "rebel type" calculation) the communists will lead that rebellion.

I don't think it's unrealistic. After all I don't think the majority of Russians in 1918 had communist ideology, but the Red Army as a whole did fight to install a communist government.

What's more unrealistic is that 6 full brigades (18000 troops plus support) are going to rise up out of your 14000 craftsmen. But then, soldier counts generally don't make sense in vic2,
Apples and Oranges. Russian/Bolshevik revolution was a national revolution, but the uprisings of communists among a select group in Vic2 is an isolated, localized event in this game. Fully acknowledge that some people will just go along, even if they aren't tagged as "communist." Then there is a realism issue that the revolts would not just be the Craftsmen, or just the Farmers, for a political revolution. People don't perform political revolts unless it is national, so it's a poor portrayal in either case. Whenever these revolts do activate/trigger in the game, it's an isolated icon in total revolting, and not a national uprising.

I think the portrayal, which isn't numerically supported, as I pointed out, and remember that the Communists are only 4.5% of the population -- if we're going to talk analogies to Bolsheviks, then what was the % of those bought in to Communism among the Bolsheviks? We know it was a whole lot more than 4.5% and not even close - which actually helps prove my point, that this method of revolts in the game is not supported in math, and not supported in Logic, and a better way to present revolts should have been pursued by the game developers. I think they pressed an "easy button" for themselves, to simply code in an icon that either does/does not trigger in revolt based on some algorithm, and I am encouraging the Devs in future game development, to parse out ideologies (with a fair amount of buy-in by some who are not of that ideology - I acknowledge your good point about "true believers" getting others to tag along, but it won't be 4.5% true believers getting 95.5% to go along, let's be real).

As an addendum, I started a totally new game in another isolated island nation, just to see the math play out again, and in Madagascar, there were 300k of 500k male citizens (of 2.5 million total population) that the game said were rebelling in the Communist groups, because I had a tremendous number of Craftsmen who were bouncing into unemployment due to being <50% literacy so therefore no Clerks and no factory organization (although pre-Westernization, I took the 2x factory upgrades on way to Westernize) -- and this was with only 2.9% of the total population being Communist, even more laughably unrealistic in statistical terms, so -- a bunch of disorganized Craftsmen who can't seem to become literate enough to work as Clerks, get mad at the state for their illiteracy? That is also a laughable reaction. I just don't see the "why" playing out well in this game's math or progression, and it's a learning point for Game Developers in their Game Design logic trail.

And any real Vic2 gamer has to admit this fact - All nations have this unreal progression to generate a communist party, even though we know in real history that the communist party was literally killed off in some countries, didn't even have a chance to rear its head, as it was outlawed by parliaments and/or Dictators and Monarchs all over the place, once it became a known. Vic2 presents Communism as if it is eventual to happen to any/all nations you play, no matter your original political starting point, or your end point at end of game -- somewhere sandwiched in the middle, the communists will start to rise up, even if you're chilling out on the beaches of Hawaii, until the Americans come sailing in to force the Queen to abdicate. I call BS!

Just hopeful that this spurns some thought and internal debate at Paradox itself - my intent isn't to argue amongst ourselves out here, but prod thought among Paradox Devs.
 
Last edited:
  • 1
  • 1Like
Reactions: