Germany has a 1.3888...% chance of Opposing Hitler

[Enriador]

How do you get 1.3888%? Or was it just figuratively speaking?

u/Governo_Fantoccio did the math:

So, Germany can only pick six starting focuses in non-historical: Rhineland, Four Year Plan, Naval Rearmament, Air Innovations, Army Innovations and Oppose Hitler.
Respectively they have an "ai_will_do" factor of: 10, 12, 1, 1, 1, 1.
This way you are led to believe that if you add these 6 numbers up and calculate the % each number amounts compared to the total, you would get the chance the AI has to pick that focus.
Going this way you would think that the AI has a ~46% chance to pick 4.Y.P., ~38% to pick Rhineland and then ~4% for each of the other 4 focuses.

While one could use this as a kind of very very rough estimate of what the AI will actually do, were still very far from the actual solution.

Now, I'm going to restrict the calculation only to this specific case of the 6 German focuses.

Essentially, imagine you have a random number generator that can output any given number belonging to Q from 0 to 12.
Whenever this number happens to be above 10, the AI will only pick 4.Y.P.. This amounts to 16.666...% of the chances (1/6). However, it doesn't end here.
Whenever the random number happens to be between 1 and 10, the game has a 50% chance to pick between either 4.Y.P. or Rhineland. Now, since the chance of picking a number from 1 to 10 is 75% on a total of 12, the game would have an actual chance of 37.5% to pick either 4.Y.P. or Rhineland.
Now, to its previously calculated chance of 16.666...% for 4.Y.P. to happen, we must add the 37.5% chance the game generates when picking any number between 1 and 10.

So, we now have calculated 91.666...% of the cases (16.666...+2*37.5).
For the remaining 8.333...%, which amounts to the total cases of the random number being less or equal to 1, the game can still choose between any of the 6 focuses. This time we just simply divide 8.333... by 6 and voilà, the resulting number will be the actual chance the game has to pick Oppose Hitler or the other 3 army focuses.

In summary:
- 4.Y.P. has a 55.555...% chance of happening. (We must add the remaining 1.3888...% that we got by dividing 8.333... by 6, same goes for Rhineland)
- Rhineland has a 38.888...% chance of occurring.
- Oppose Hitler, Army Innovations, Air Innovations and Naval Rearmament have a 1.3888...% chance of happening each.

The game therefore heavily favors 4.Y.P. or Rhineland over the other focuses. Over 1000 games one can ideally expect only ~14 where the AI will pick Oppose Hitler.

 

[bitmode]

u/Governo_Fantoccio did the math:

To my understanding from the game code the system works very similar to your quoted post, but with individual die rolls for each NF, pseudo-code see here. This makes the calculation more complicated and the result smaller:

Spoiler: calculation

highest roll between 12 and 10: 1 - (10/12)^1 = 20/120 = 16.67%
highest roll between 10 and 1: (1 - (1/10)^2) * (1 - (1 - (10/12)^1)) = 99/120 = 82.5%
highest roll between 0 and 1: 1 - (1 - (10/12)^1) - (1 - (1/10)^2) * (1 - (1 - (10/12)^1))) = 1/120 = 0.83%

Oppose Hitler is one out of six in the rolls between 0 and 1: 1/720 = 0.14%.

If it did work like u/Governo_Fantoccio says, it would actually be a pretty good system, allowing for some back-of-the-envelope estimates.

 

[j.margenat]

Historical focus are "balanced" because the game is geared towards 2 wars
WW2: In which you have Allies vs Axis and Commitern vs Axis.
Pacific War in which you have Japan vs China and Japan vs USA.

However alt-history focus will make really strange wars like another balcan war or will make some factions overpowered like a commie USA joining the commitern.

 

[Mr_Dimento]

Here’s hoping this gets fixed next patch.

 

[TalyonUngol]

They need to finally bring in a Italy dlc with a monarchy path to go with the assinate Mussolini.

Though id much rather their non aligned path push towards roman Empire with mussolini at the helm since ot was one of his desires.

This is my hope as well for an Italy focus. Im hoping italy gets THREE branches that are new to the tree. Two political and one focus that gives things for Africa. Like if they hold the Suez Canal, they'll get a focus that puts some forts there, and then if they can connect Etheopia, they'll get more infrastrucutre in the connecting deserts. Or part of the Africa tree could be, if they puppet or have annexed Ethopia, they will put forts and infrastructure and factories there. Even maybe give up the land to your puppet/ally of Etheopia, and have them core the land nearby. I mean, just alot of options that we could do with the italy tree.

As for the political, since Democratic is absolute boring to play, I could really care less if they did one but if they did thats cool. But a Facist Italy First where they befriend Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania or even all of the Balkans. Then the Non-aligned Roman Empire tree where they give good national spirts, wargoals etc.

I do think they should get some maluses, but not where its stupidly long to remove them that playing Italy might as well be worthless.