GER economic mobilisation redesign

[Tegetthoff]

I have been playing a number of GER run-ups to war with various strategies, including runs a year or two into the war.

I got the impression that available IC pre-war is somewhat tight (not excessively so), while once into 1940 I found myself with more IC than I could reasonably spend.

Let me add that there were enjoyable raw material shortages pre-war (as there should be) while 1939/40 I ran into a massive metal deficit (not correctable by any possible trades, > -100), which was again completely compensated once the French campaign was done (but I found myself gamely invading LUX in December 39 to keep my industry going).

We have recently shifted Partial Mobilisation back to the Sudeten crisis. I would like to put the following up for discussion:

* Shift Partial Mobilisation ahead to 1936, trigger it by the historical choice of the 1936 Reichsparteitag (EHRE?)
* This roughly corresponds to the "Augustprogramm" of 1936, which kicked off the main expansion run of the Wehrmacht up to 1939
* In compensation, cut a number of IC from Germany´s base. I would like to start with -5 IC, cutting the starting 305 IC to 300. This may require some fine-tuning

Overall, GER gets two years more with +15% effective IC (at a low effectivity level) for a game-long cut of 1.6% IC - as I write it, 10 IC sounds like a more reasonable cut but first of all we need some discussion here anyway.

 

[dec152000]

Hi,

A quick response is I don't think that is appropriate. The current design with Military Recovery is a giant bonus for GER over most other nations. I've played a lot of games as GER and always felt that I had enough IC prewar. OTOH, I feel like I run short later on when I'm shooting for the 1940 OOB against FRA. On that note, remember that most other nations also struggle with the initial peace-war mobilization. What are you targeting for Sep 1939 and what do you end up short?

WRT long term overproduction by GER we've given them a lot of advantages. The immediate inclusion of POL provinces and Bohemia-Moravia are a couple examples. We could definitely cut back on GER mobilized IC that way. However the actual on map IC is statistically based and I don't think we should be tinkering with that. Another point is that Germany historically partially demobilized after the FRA campaign. This is not modeled at all yet. Another area we could work if post war IC is too high.

Metal: This is the sort of thing I was worried about with the new trading scheme. The targets are set so high that the AI may be hoarding Resources. I've never had this problem as GER in the past. Where is all of the SWE Metal going?

mm

 

[Tegetthoff]

Very little metal is to be had in Sweden, at any time.
But generally the trade AI seems to be working, at least in AI on AI trading.

But in some hands-off games, crashes of the German economy have been observed, by me and others.

 

[Denniss]

After capture of France (and LUX) GER is basically swimming in Metals, hardly any need for historical trades with Sweden. Maybe some changes afterwards like reducing metal output (sabotaged?) or transformning some metal into rares.

 

[Tegetthoff]

Yes, there is a "hole" between Sept. 39 and June 40. Thereafter, life is too easy for a GER Player.

 

[dec152000]

Hi,

Not sure why there should be a giant improvement in the Metal situation after FRA. I'd seen this issue in the past and shifted Metz to no longer be National for GER to counteract this. But maybe that wasn't enough. There is definitely some wiggle room on the division of Metal between Strassbourg and Metz. Right now it's roughly 33/67 based on some old documents. But this could be shifted to be less favorable to GER. LUX could also be looked at. One other thing we might need to adjust the RHG events to reduce the amount of Metal they provide. But this would be really minor. Could you please provide an example of your Metal sourcing to confirm how the current file set is working?

mm

 

[Tegetthoff]

oI am starting a GER game today and will stick to all historical choices.
Slider moves are always towards Central Planning.

Jan. 6, 1936: all trades (obviously) positive, made no Minister changes (usually I switch out Hjalmar Schacht and Canaris for ministers that up my IC). Military salaries to 50% (what do you usually do? More, less?), concentrate on upgrade rather than reinforcement.

mid 36: I notice that trades where I offer money get cancelled almost immediately while trades that I offer for supplies seem to stick indefinitely

Death of Wever: shouldn´t chosing Udet give a BP on Dive Bombing rather than Pre-planned coordination, as Dive Bombing was Udet´s fixation?

July 36: Bismarck laid down at historical date.

For Zsar: Italy wins in Ethiopia August 9, 36. Cannot really say whether ETH is annexed by event or by game mechanics.

I add one more line of infantry Division builds and replace the model 4 submarines with model 6 submarine production runs as they are finished. Tight with IC until the four-year plan event comes along.

Trading positive with everything, but mainly by trading away supplies rather than Money.

Laying down Tirpitz a month late (Dec. 36) and now there are just 2 IC left for Upgrades

I get AD carrier Dec. 11 - Dec. 28, 36 ist the historic date to lay down the Graf Zeppelin, which I do without CAG and which takes me down to my last free IC.

A step towards Central Planning Jan 1., 37 plus Full Central Planning Boost gives me 12IC for upgrades and a positive trade balance by Feb. 1, 37.

Finishing the Rhineland fortifications frees enough supplies and thus IC to start a line of newly developed Bf 109 interceptors and a line of purpose-built transports (I am not quite historical / standard regarding the transports, I know)

SCW ends in Aug. 37, Nationalist Spain wins.

Still trading positive in late 37, have some IC to spare for a bit of AA building and another infantry build line.

I just noticed that I am selling He 111s to Turkey without having developed them - if the deal is historic, we might need a blueprint to speed up the medium bomber development.

Another slider move to Central Planning plus the CP Boost moves me up the industrial Mobilisation ladder and positive in trading except for a -5 metal Situation (which is solvable).

Stockpiles: 20k energy, 11k metal, 4k rares, 6k oil.

I can probably cancel some energy trades but will wait for Anschluss to decide.

After Anschluss, I can indeed cancel some energy trades and start a line of armoured divisions.

Just noticed that Laval is again still around in France and the French have again decided to go their own way in the pre-Sudeten chain. What makes him stick in place? AFAIK his government falls with the Rhineland crisis. Have to note this down for later.

By June 38, with a Medium Bomber Line opened and a bit more of AA and Radar construction, production is again maxed out and practically nothing available for an increasing upgrade line (340 IC demand ATM).

Things are very tight as I move into Sept. 38. No way to start a Light Bomber Line, slightly negative energy and metal trades.

Partial mobilisation helps, I now have 50 IC to work the 400+IC upgrade pile.

Prepare for iterations: France does not agree to attend the Munich conference ... and nothing happens - triggers for ahistorical Munich incorrect?
2nd rerun: France attends - agrees to the deal - and Partition occures, so that one is fixed.

January 1939: another slider move towards CP with the CP Boost gives me 43 IC to work a 386 IC upgrade pile and a more or less balanced trade Situation (-10 on metals, but a single deal can solve this).

Stockpiles: 37k energy, 15k metal, 8k rares, 8k oil

Czechoslavakia decides to fight in March 39, but is left without Allies - interesting ahistorical option and I will play this out and return here later.

Overall: I have to admit that up to here it was possible to build Germany to roughly historical force levels and to trade for resources and build decent stockpiles without too much trouble. Part of the solution was going for supplies trades rather than Money trades.

Or rather let´s go on, since there is little difference to the historical Option. France will be stronger, having mobilised as soon as GER is at war with anybody.

Interestingly, I do not get to claim Memel after conquering Czechoslovakia - should at least be possible it I control Prague and am not at war with the Allies. Note: this is because the claiming Memel Event fires only on March 22 and if GER is not at war. Unless somebody cries "foul", I´ll fix this by adding an offset and deathdate.

War with POL, Full Mobilisation and victory in Poland: I have decent stockpiles and am currently running -50 on metal but trying to fix this with trades. SOV are very unfriendly in trading, demanding huge amounts of supplies in return - something to fix in the AI file?

Note: I ended up about 20 land divisions short of the 103 division goal for GER. Of course I did not get the "Leichte" Divisions with the war against CZE, but that is jut three extra divisions.

Note: what may have happened compared to earlier games was that I concentrated on supplies trades and thus reduced my industrial capacity available for building units. The dynamic trade events do not affect supplies, AFAIK.


... will update this as I progress ..

 

[Kennelly]

Laval usually falls in January 1936 due to the Italo-Abyssinian war (historical). He can return again in the June 1936 elections (ahistorical) with event 1000007. If wikipedia can be believed he was out of politics until Vichy, so he shouldn't become HoG in event of a right-wing victory. He could be replaced by Pierre-Etienne Flandin, who historically became leader of the opposition (already in file, but not as HoG).

 

[dec152000]

Hi,

CP Slider: IMO doing this exclusively is ahistorical. What I set up the AI to do is about what I think was RW:

# GER Starting Slider Scheme: D1/PL1/F2/FM6/PA7/DL5/I6
#
# AI 1936: DL +1 D1/PL1/F2/FM6/PA7/DL5(6)/I6
# Rhineland: DL +1 D1/PL1/F2/FM6/PA7/DL6(7)/I6
# Spanish Civil War: I +1 D1/PL1/F2/FM6/PA7/DL6(7)/I7
# Göring's 4 Year Plan: FM -1/DL +1 D1/PL1/F2/FM5/PA7/DL7(8)/I7
# AI 1937: PA +1 D1/PL1/F2/FM5/PA7(8)/DL7(8)/I7
# AI 1938: I +1 D1/PL1/F2/FM5/PA7(8)/DL7(8)/I7(8)
# Munich Agreement - CZE Accepts: I +1 D1/PL1/F2/FM5/PA7(8)/DL7(8)/I8(9)
# AI 1939: FM -1 D1/PL1/F2/FM5(4)/PA7(8)/DL7(8)/I8(9)
# End of Czecho-Slovakia: DL +1 D1/PL1/F2/FM5(4)/PA7(8)/DL8(9)/I8(9)
# Partial Mobilization: PA -1 D1/PL1/F2/FM5(4)/PA6(7)/DL8(9)/I8(9)
# MR Pact Hist: I +1 D1/PL1/F2/FM5(4)/PA6(7)/DL8(9)/I9(10)
# Full Mobilization: PA -1 D1/PL1/F2/FM5(4)/PA5(6)/DL8(9)/I9(10)

Of course there is a lot of slop in this model and you could argue for more CP. OTOH, going CP early is IMO not such a good idea. The additional IC is nice. But GER needs to do a lot of upgrading and CP makes this much more expensive. Plus it exacerbates all of the resource problems GER has.

Upgrade/Reinforcement: I usually set Reinforcement at around 1% of IC max until approaching war. Upgrade for gEr whatever I can afford. I don't make any Minister changes either as the events cover what is needed.

Udet: This BP shift would make some sense. OTOH, I believe that the SCW gives a BP for Dive Bombing.

He-111: This is more of an issue with the event text than your research. These aircraft are early He-111F models. So represent something more like a 1935 level aircraft. What Turkey actually gets is 1935 level.

Lavel: Agree, needs to be fixed.

Energy trades: If you are actually importing energy that seems odd. GER can always fix any energy issue by canceling trades. So I run GER with a minimal stockpile of Energy.

Memel: Indeed, this should be a date range.

OOB: I'm guessing a bit here based on you r comments.

103 Target: This seems high for functional units in Sep 1939. A number of formations "deployed" at that point were not really combat ready as they were recently mobilized reserve units. This is the wave structure up to that point:

Wave 1, Standing (35) INF: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, { 44, 45 & 46 }
Wave 2, Partial (18+2) INF: 50, 52, 56, 57, 58, (60), 61, 62, 68, 69, 71, 72, 73, 75, 76, 78, 79, 86, 87 & (POL)
Wave 3, Full (21) RES: 205, 206, 207, 208, 209, 211, 212, 213, 214, 215, 216, 217, 218, 221, 223, 225, 227, 228, 231, 239 & 246
Wave 4: Full (14) INF: 251, 252, 253, 254, 255, 256, 257, 258, 260, 262, 263, 267, 268 & 269
Wave 5: Full (5) INF: 93, 94, 95, 96 & 98
Plus: Full (5) GAR: 526, 537, 538, 539 & 540 Frontier Guard Divisions

Most of the Wave 3 & 4 units had very limited roles in 1939 action. Though some saw combat in Poland. The Wave 5 units appear to have formed after the actual war began. While you could argue for all of the Wave 3 and 4 units to be on map at this point I'd note that ENG and FRA don't have all of their mobilized reserve units at that point either. Also, if you are building a complete INF force the 21 Wave 3 units are definitely RES quality by TO&E.

ARM: If you started a line after the Anschluss how many divisions did you end up with? Any more than 6 is definitely too much.

Air: Build of Medium Bomber units really should be limited as the historical number of these would support near 10 units and the initial OOB has 7. Initial Light Fighter number of 3 does support more builds.

U boats: Only 57 available at war start. A lot of these are Type II. So quick target 13-14 units max.

mm

 

[Kennelly]

Another more cosmetic thing regarding GER:
Ribbentropp never comes into power as FM in contrast to Molotov who gets in via a SOV event.

 

[Tegetthoff]

I´ll just copy over my Aug. 29 OOB:
Land: 68 Inf, 6 Mot. (all by Event), 6 Arm, 3 Mtn, 1 Gar, 4 HQ, Total 88, I´d Count 83 of them as "Divisions" (minus the 4 HQ and the GAR)
Air: 12 INT, 3 CAS, 10 TAC, 1 TRPT
Sea: 2 BB (old), 2 BC, 6 CA, 6 CL, 10DD, 13 MR Subs, 2 LR-SS, 3 TP


Land seems fine by the numbers quoted by Dec.
Air also (I used to be under the Impression that I would need more than 10 Tac)
57 Subs (and of course there is the Schulflottile already withdrawn by Event) is slightly over target.

Comments on changes:
SCW event might give pre-planned execution instead, which is currently granted by Udet´s appointment

Laval: if it is historically correct, we might want to prevent him from coming back. Still, it is interesting to try and code out the missing Sudeten Events. What works:
Historical path
Slightly ahistorical path with France chosing ist own policy in March 38, but deciding to come to the Munich conference and agreeing to the deal. This opens up the option that I got here, with CZE deciding to fight because it has allies and both the Soviets and the French getting a chance of joining in.

What it not coded at all is France deciding not to come to the conference. It was clearly intended to have a 3-way conference in the Event, but the corresponding "Germany chooses Tactics" event is missing.
What is also not coded is France coming and deciding against the deal - though this may work as intended, France can do so but then the event chain just ends - probably there should be a final decision for GER to go to war or for ENG to agree without French backing - again, don´t really know what was intended.

Memel is fixed.

 

[Tegetthoff]

It is interesting that the Germans never seem to have really deployed the Ju86D (1935 Medium Bomber) in large numbers since it was a flawed design but went straight to the HE 111 (1938 Medium Bomber), which might be defined in AoD Terms as developed in 1937 and introduced starting 1938.

 

[dec152000]

Hi,

Can't believe we never modeled this. Added event to make the switch.

mm

 

[dec152000]

Hi,

Your OOB is indeed ballpark IMO. Though I'd say it is a little on the high side by my interpretation. Compared with FRA and ENG I think the numbers are definitely OK. One thing I forgot to mention is Radar is probably something GER should just be starting on building in 1939. Supposedly eight devices were installed when the war broke out and in game terms that might be 2 sites total.

SCW: I'm fine with switching that code if you wish.

Sudeten: We either need the paths blocked or coded. I don't really care which we do considering the limited utility involved.

mm

 

[Denniss]

It is interesting that the Germans never seem to have really deployed the Ju86D (1935 Medium Bomber) in large numbers since it was a flawed design but went straight to the HE 111 (1938 Medium Bomber), which might be defined in AoD Terms as developed in 1937 and introduced starting 1938.

The Ju 86 was not really a flawed design, just the Diesel engines proved unsuitable for military formation flying. Many were re-engined with gasoline engines but with the arrival of improved He 111 and Do 17Z they were withdrawn to schools.

 

[dec152000]

Hi,

Ju 86/He 111: There were a couple of medium bombers developed in Germany during this period. We could pick any of the early models for the 35 design and either of the He 11/Do 17 variants would work for the 38 design. With the He 111 the P models weren't actually produced until late 1938 and incorporated a number of significant improvements. Plus there were somewhat more of them in the inventory.

mm

 

[Tegetthoff]

Hi,

Can't believe we never modeled this. Added event to make the switch.

mm

What were you referring to here?

 

[Kennelly]

Laval: if it is historically correct, we might want to prevent him from coming back. Still, it is interesting to try and code out the missing Sudeten Events. What works:
Historical path
Slightly ahistorical path with France chosing ist own policy in March 38, but deciding to come to the Munich conference and agreeing to the deal. This opens up the option that I got here, with CZE deciding to fight because it has allies and both the Soviets and the French getting a chance of joining in.

Read up a bit and due to the incredibly splintered French party system one can never be certain, but Flandin was leader of the biggest Right-Wing party and became Leader of the opposition, so he should IMO become HoG in the event of a rightwing victory.

 

[dec152000]

Hi,

My comment about modeling had to do with von Neurath being replaced by von Ribbentrop. Kind of significant to be left out. Especially considering both of the generals sacked at the same time are modeled.

mm

 

[Tegetthoff]

Ok, played another game right up to Dec. 1940, with fewer CP moves and it worked out quite well. I think I can strike most of my initial comments here. Even the late 1940 "overflow" is not so bad, I can cancel some of the unfavourable metal deals I made in 1939/1940 as the French steel industry comes back and I am still short of rares, but a balanced rares trade is just within reach (running -5 to -20).