Full monopoly problem

[unmerged(487181)]

So I have this COT in the Dominican Republic, New Amsterdam, which is worth 1800 ducats. I own a nominal monopoly and have a 99% chance to compete out anyone in the COT and have done so to every merchant repeatedly.

...then, out of the blue, someone else who I have a 99% chance against magically appears in the COT. I don't lose my monopoly, so they clearly did not compete me out to get in. They just start magically bypassing the monopoly altogether. What gives?

 

[colinljx]

Any trade agreement?

 

[unmerged(487181)]

Nope.

 

[maxirage]

There will always be 1 merchant who's not yours. It's how it works.

 

[unmerged(487181)]

asdfghjkl;

 

[HelmuthM]

Don't make COTs in coastal provinces.

 

[unmerged(487181)]

...huh? Why not?

 

[HelmuthM]

...huh? Why not?

Inland COTs in colonies usually stay hidden, so other countries cannot trade there.

 

[n0thin]

Well, but as a colonizer you get +0,1 colonists a year from each coastal CoT. In this case, your best option is probably to try and make them all on the western coast of America => other country can't reach them for quite some time.

 

[unmerged(487181)]

That's not really an option in the Caribbean though.

More pressing question: It is impossible to get a 100% compete chance? I'm assuming so, but I'm finding the whole "Oh look, some OPM with a 1% chance to out-compete you defied the odds and broke your monopoly!" thing really annoying since it's happening once every 2-3 years. I guess with how many attempts would be made that this is bound to happen, but this seems rather frequent.

 

[n0thin]

That's not really an option in the Caribbean though.

More pressing question: It is impossible to get a 100% compete chance? I'm assuming so, but I'm finding the whole "Oh look, some OPM with a 1% chance to out-compete you defied the odds and broke your monopoly!" thing really annoying since it's happening once every 2-3 years. I guess with how many attempts would be made that this is bound to happen, but this seems rather frequent.

It's an option for the Caribbean. Just make a CoT on the Mexican/Central American West Coast. If you are highly mercantilistic, your Caribbean provinces will trade through that.
And yeah, you can't have a higher chance then 99%.

 

[unmerged(487181)]

I'm max Free Trade, don't own any inland territory there and really don't want to take on even more maluses to compete chance from another uncored COT.

And that's really frustrating. I just ran a quick check, and if my math is right then it should only take about 70 attempts before it's more likely that they'll break my monopoly than that I'll keep it. 70 attempts spread out over a couple hundred countries is not a long time.

 

[n0thin]

Well, it's possible to maintain a full monopoly with full FT, but it's ofc much harder. You should probably more focus on getting 5-6 merchants in all important CoTs in the world before you try to get a full monopoly.

If you really want to get one, than you should have all the provinces trading through the CoT and try to max your compete chance (the NIs NTP, SCP, merchant chance advisor etc.).

 

[Hatkah]

Do you have to actually manually do something to get a full monopoly or will it automatically do it for you if you have it on green autosend?

 

[n0thin]

You have to keep sending merchants after you have accomplished the CoT until there are 13 empty places in your CoT with you holding the monopoly.

 

[Von Paulous]

Dont be too greedy....

Yes.. if feels like the AI is stealing from you... however a trade center needs competition to stay in place.

If you have no competition for ages... it will dissapear... and appear elsewhere and it is highly likely that the provices trading to it are not yours....

Therefore Getting 19/20 slots of that trade center will be more difficult... if not impossible (The AI will set in place somewhere it thinks that is impossible to get monopoly)

You will probably hate this happening... unless you actually rule most of the world map?? or at least the new world map....

I will would opt for leaving the AI having a single slot.... As far as I remeber the one that steals your profits changes over time.... so there is competition.... and the CoT stays in place for ever....

 

[unmerged(487181)]

Well, it's possible to maintain a full monopoly with full FT, but it's ofc much harder. You should probably more focus on getting 5-6 merchants in all important CoTs in the world before you try to get a full monopoly.

If you really want to get one, than you should have all the provinces trading through the CoT and try to max your compete chance (the NIs NTP, SCP, merchant chance advisor etc.).

I don't actually think in SP that it's much different. You can get to 99% compete chance on everyone with either full merc or full FT pretty easily. Problem is just that even 99% won't hold up for long. .99^x = .5 yields an x of ~70, which means that after ~70 attempts it's more likely that someone will compete you out. 70 attempts isn't much...

 

[n0thin]

I don't actually think in SP that it's much different. You can get to 99% compete chance on everyone with either full merc or full FT pretty easily. Problem is just that even 99% won't hold up for long. .99^x = .5 yields an x of ~70, which means that after ~70 attempts it's more likely that someone will compete you out. 70 attempts isn't much...

a) I don't exactly understand how you get to ~70. If you have a chance of 99% against EVERYONE, that means, that they have to try 100 times to get a merchant in that CoT.
b) Most countries won't try to get in that CoT. Countries in Asia will just ignore your CoT. Western countries with high mercantilistic sliders will do the same. In the end, only countries with high free trade sliders in the Latin, Eastern or maybe Muslim techgroup will try to compete you out. And for them is 70 or 100 tries quite a lot, especially since this isn't the only CoT they want to get in.

 

[apsycobear]

Yes.. if feels like the AI is stealing from you... however a trade center needs competition to stay in place.

If you have no competition for ages... it will dissapear... and appear elsewhere and it is highly likely that the provices trading to it are not yours....

Therefore Getting 19/20 slots of that trade center will be more difficult... if not impossible (The AI will set in place somewhere it thinks that is impossible to get monopoly)

You will probably hate this happening... unless you actually rule most of the world map?? or at least the new world map....

I will would opt for leaving the AI having a single slot.... As far as I remeber the one that steals your profits changes over time.... so there is competition.... and the CoT stays in place for ever....

You do not need competition to avoid stagnation, only for the CoT to have enough provinces trading through it. Getting 19/20 slots in a center of trade is very easy to do with full mercantilism, harder with full trade but still doable.

 

[unmerged(487181)]

a) I don't exactly understand how you get to ~70. If you have a chance of 99% against EVERYONE, that means, that they have to try 100 times to get a merchant in that CoT.
b) Most countries won't try to get in that CoT. Countries in Asia will just ignore your CoT. Western countries with high mercantilistic sliders will do the same. In the end, only countries with high free trade sliders in the Latin, Eastern or maybe Muslim techgroup will try to compete you out. And for them is 70 or 100 tries quite a lot, especially since this isn't the only CoT they want to get in.

(a) formula for determining probability of a binary choice over x attempts is (possibility of desired outcome)^x. So in this case we want to know at what point it becomes more likely for a merchant to compete you out of the COT than not. Thus the point of comparison is your compete chance, which is .99. Next, since we want to know that point, we set it equal to that point. Hence it becomes .99^x = .5.

.99^x = .5
x log .99 = log .5
x = log .5 / log .99
x = 68.96756 = 69

Hence, ~70.

(b) I follow your logic here, but I'm simply observing my own data, which is suggesting that I can't seem to hold a full monopoly with 99% compete against everyone for more than a few months at a time. There's a discrepancy between your logic (which from all appearances is solid, I agree with you fully on it) and my results.