FTM 3.04: Fall of Nat China (1936 scenario)

[brisduv]

I have not studied the Sino-Japanese war in depth but I think if Japan had wanted to win that war bad enough, it had the manpower and resources to do so. They could have mobilized 20 or more additional divisions (as I do) and used them there but the cost would have been incredible. That war was an extreme version of 'mission creep' and I agree that war vs. the Allies probably wouldn't have happened without the stalemate in China. And by winning I mean discrediting the Nationals government and either puppeting or conquering the most populated areas. But with the USSR on the northern border, much of their army is not available to 'finish' the job. I have seen Japan stopped in China for years, it does occur but probably less than 50% in SF and I imagine similarly in FTM. I've not seen the world's 3rd largest navy used for amphibious or carrier missions as was done historically against China. Again it is a matter of balancing the game for both MP, solo and AI, hard to do. I notice that VP's are now located mostly in the interior, as are the starting National armies, so that's an improvement.

 

[Old Ladies]

Well ever since FTM every single one of my games China was defeated. I have put over a dozen games in FTM(although not all finished) and China just starts to loose rapidly when Shanxi falls.

Before FTM Nat China would almost always be able to hold its ground. Now with FTM it seems like China falls and then India is taken over by Japan shortly after that. I have seen Japan taking over Africa before.

Usually Japan takes over China and India and then a few years later the US takes over all of Japan and its conquered territory.

 

[JMBarbarossa]

I can provide screenshots if anyone likes. I played a game of FTM with the last 3.03-- beta patch just before 3.04 came out as Italy and the japanese were defending the border with manchukuo and in the South, Indochina with help from Siam. They were out of crude oil and soon to be out of fuel. The supply situation seemed to be alright, however. I'm not sure exactly how far Japan got at their farthest, but they annexed comm china and shanxi.

This is in November of 1940

 

[Galithor]

In my USA game, FTM version 3.04, Japan took Shanxi after a few months then got stalemated roughly along a line next to Beiping. They took control of the first nationalist chinese port (name escapes me) and they control it still with few surrounding provinces, though it's not apart of thier main line to the north. Even with the stalemate, Japan declared war on USA on November 8, 1941, at which point I promptly joined the Allies and began shipping my troops to Europe.

As it stands right now in March 1942, Japan is still stalled around Beiping, though they are fighting alongside the Siam forces against the British in Burma. They're skirmishing with my fleets in the pacific, but they haven't attempted any island invasions, likely due to all the troops they've got tied up in Asia. Guangxi Clique is still neutral, and the Soviet assistance to china was never triggered. Barbarossa has progressed to the gates of Leningrad, and to within 6 provinces of Moscow. The Romanians are spearheading a good push along the Black Sea that's probably 300km further along than the rest of the German Front. Italy is stalemated in north Africa with the British. I'm well into my D-day invasion of France, having just recently took Paris and currently on the outskirts of Amsterdam to the North, Bordeaux to the South.

3.04 has easily been the most historical outcome I've ever gotten.

The only ahistorical items are Yugoslavia never being invaded by Germany, and Persia joining the Axis to get defeated by the British in early 1942. And then, obviously, my early 1942 D-Day invasion to save the Soviets before what appeared to be thier inevitable defeat.

 

[lpremus]

the problem with the mechanics for this part of the game is a couple of things; technology gap from 1918-1938 on tech levels. 2nd once china is cut off from sea no more raw material intake. not enough factories in game get moved to key provinces. china works like USSR in game but the provinces on coast are still to big. also china needs GB as a neighbor NOT YUNNAN reason is for supply; hence burma road. Who really cares in the game about Yunnan and them liking to be Fascist. yes historically they are there but that is just flavor like butterscotch on ice cream. its nice to have but it doesn't really make the ice cream better. MAKE YUNNAN PART OF CHINA TO CREATE SUPPLY WITH GB.

 

[unmerged(304296)]

The Allies and Russia did occupy Persia because the Shah in power then was very strongly pro-Nazi. He changed the name of the country to Iran, which is as we know it today, because "Iran" means Aryan.

 

[xtfoster]

I don't trust fast games playing haiti or switzerland, I prefer to play the game entirely and see what happens.

The point of using one of the Caribbean minors like Haiti or the Dominican Republic is to see how the AI performs against the AI. If you are playing a major, or even the neighbor of a major, it affects how the AI performs. If you are playing as a major you are going to perform better than the AI so the other AIs will react to that. The AI is also programmed to act differently to a neighbor who is also a player (which is why playing as Switzerland or Tannu Tuva is a bad choice for a handsoff game).

A couple of other points.

1) Japan being able to quickly annex China isn't that far from historical. The main reason that Japan only took the coasts of China was a choice, not because the Chinese prevented them from doing so.
2) Until the AI can be programmed to better respond to multiple fronts, Japan will do horribly against the USA in the Pacific if they are still at war in China.

 

[invertigo2004]

My current 3.04 USA 1936 game looked early on to be another ignominous defeat for the Chinese. However, the Japanese advanced stalled roughly along the Yangtze River in 1938, with Nanking holding firm. The Chinese then pushed the Japanese back to the Yellow River, where the front stalled again until mid-1941, when the Japanese line collapsed and the Chinese pushed into Manchukuo, at one point reaching (but not crossing) the Yalu River. The front has wavered and swayed over Manchukuo for 2 years now, with no end in sight. Indochina has been occupied by Guanxi, and Siam by Britain.

 

[unmerged(261714)]

but it does not happen all the time and that is the important thing. in fact it happens far less now.
just look at what darkrenown posted above.

In all my games... and ive played alot of games. I have never seen China hold off japan for more than a year... with the exception of the DIG mod.

 

[Tormodius]

I just started a game with the new August Storm mod. And they can't even get into shangxi. I reccomend playing this game with some mod, cuz the vanilla FtM truely has some issues.

 

[Leathaface]

When the surrender of Shanxi is fixed, things should get more slow. In my game as current Japan the AI was quite smart defending (better than before). However upon annexing shanxi the chinese armies found themselves cut of and that was a big problem for them. My tanks slaughtered their retreating armies.

Apart from Shanxi surrendering it was quite natural in my eyes. Against better equipped and concentrated Japanese armies with tanks and a lot of bombers the Chinese can't be expected to hold out all the time. Dont forget this is not history channel and it isn't necessary for Japan to make the same mistakes they did in RL.

 

[Darkrenown]

I just started a game with the new August Storm mod. And they can't even get into shangxi. I reccomend playing this game with some mod, cuz the vanilla FtM truely has some issues.

That's hardly historical either

Anyway, JAP does beat CHI too easily too often, but it's not always and it just so happened CHI was holding out the the game I was looking at as this thread appeared, so I thought I would share a pic.

 

[jmschaub]

I will admit 3.04 is an improvement so far.... only 1 game in the works. But more needs to be done as suggested above. Maybe create a unique war goal for Japan. Also give more of a bonus to the China factions for reorg and restrength.

 

[FOARP]

That's hardly historical either

Anyway, JAP does beat CHI too easily too often, but it's not always and it just so happened CHI was holding out the the game I was looking at as this thread appeared, so I thought I would share a pic.

As has been said in other threads, the answer is not to buff China (or not just that, anyway) or to nerf Japan, the answer is to make Japan behave as Japan actually did - they should never commit their full potential against China. Instead, their efforts against China should be inverely proportionate to how well they have done in China. This means major combat in 1937, which tails off as forces advance, with, say, only just enough forces being left to hold the line against the Chinese by the time the Japanese hold all the ports and the major coastal cities. The surplus is then free for use against the western powers or the Soviets.

My understanding is that the AI already garrisons borders based on the threat level it detects from the country in question. Perhaps China's threat level should decrease as the Japanese advance?

 

[Bonte]

How about a territorial pride effect, much like Germany and Russia get.......

Make a decision/event so that when a certain % of Chinese VPs are taken the get +15% territorial pride for the rest of the war.

 

[improff]

I think, people are not giving Comm. China enough credit. The Japanese offense stalled in part due to the guerrilla warfare happening in the background. This made it entirely not worth it for Japan to continue into the mainland as the supply situation would become entirely unmanagable.

In history, the Japanese never really held entire provinces. The entire occupation army were based in main cities and strongholds.

Currently I've been playing a game where Comm. China gets a slightly larger buff w.r.t. resources, manpower, and organization regain. This seems to hold off the Japanese from conquering all of Nat. - Historically also, the communist Army, while smaller in manpower, was much better organized with a more dedicated and able fighting force. Essentially this opens the flank of the occupation army to a second attack that will tie up a lot of manpower.

Not sure what this will do to the Island Hopping though ... still need to look at that.

If anyone wants to look at the strategic effect, I'd be happy to share.

-- On a side note, I'm also hoping to use this buff and opportunity to simulate the Chinese Civil War once the Japanese are kicked off the mainland, but that's an entirely different discussion.

 

[outis]

As has been said in other threads, the answer is not to buff China (or not just that, anyway) or to nerf Japan, the answer is to make Japan behave as Japan actually did - they should never commit their full potential against China. Instead, their efforts against China should be inverely proportionate to how well they have done in China. This means major combat in 1937, which tails off as forces advance, with, say, only just enough forces being left to hold the line against the Chinese by the time the Japanese hold all the ports and the major coastal cities. The surplus is then free for use against the western powers or the Soviets.

My understanding is that the AI already garrisons borders based on the threat level it detects from the country in question. Perhaps China's threat level should decrease as the Japanese advance?

Neither China and Japan is anything near their historical OOB. China started the war with 1.7 million men in nearly 200 divisions (including CHC, CGX, CSX, CXB, CYN units). Japan started the war with 17 divsions -- but those divisions are large units of 25000-30000 men.
And on the troop level, Japan committed 80-90 percent of the army and 60 percent of the navy from 1937-1941. And the attack on SE Asia and Philippines only account to 20% of their army. In 1945, 60% of army and 25% of the navy (manpower) is still in China -- and that was because of homeland defense. And you have it the other way around -- the skirmish with Soviets and war against the western power is to support their efforts in China (i.e. cut off the supply line).

The fact is that Japan ever lost its puppet in China (that account for 1-2 million men), and it could lose Manchuria (which produce more steel than Japan mainland, for example). Then Japan is really screwed. You cannot really have a good simulation of Japan's war unless you model this aspect.

Another aspect is what happened if Japan didn't start the war -- it's likely Japan would be screwed also. 1927-1937 was a golden decade for China. Industries are growing at similar rate as China now. China was in the process of reforming it's military -- by establishing German trained and equipped divisions. The goal was 60 divisions (another claim says 80). By the time war started, it's only 1/3 complete (at rate of 10 divisions a year).

 

[unmerged(185688)]

How about a territorial pride effect, much like Germany and Russia get.......

Make a decision/event so that when a certain % of Chinese VPs are taken the get +15% territorial pride for the rest of the war.

There already is:/

common\triggered_modifiers.txt

# desperate_defence
desperate_defence = {

	potential = {
			TAG = CHI
	}
	trigger = {
		tag = CHI
		lost_national = 0.3
	}
	
	territorial_pride = 0.2
	org_regain = 0.05
	icon = 5
}

 

[Leathaface]

In my current DI:G game (FtM with DI:G alpha) I decided to support the Chinese 2 times with 'military advisers' and supplies, before siding with the Japanese (seemed smarter to keep the US in check later). Then, somewhere 1940 Japan joined the axis and in July 1940 I had a quick look in China That's ~ around 1 million Jap troops there. Roughly half of that is regular INF, various support brigades, some tanks, a mountain corps and around 200k MIL + GAR. Not unimpressive I would say.

In December 1940 the Japs were pushed back a little bit, both sides committed more forces. This is probably the heaviest fighting in the world since the Chinese forces look scarier than France, NL, BE and the BEF combined, which were under my heel at the moment of this screenshot.

I wonder how those Chinese divisions will hold up against one of my Panzer army's.

Edit: oops, picture sanitized

 

[Lord Martin]

Edit picture please. No swastikas allowed.