Forrests, Fog of war and scouting

[Alex_brunius]

I would like for it to be impossible to spot enemy units in a a province made up of mostly Forrest or Jungle. Quite alot of wargames have this included and I can think of some relevant situations like Fall Gelb where knowing the enemy had taken the territory but not beeing able to spot how many divisions he was bringing in worked negativelly for france.

Another example would be Okinawa, when the americans was landing they had no way of telling what awaited them in the Jungles. Even if they had over a thousand Carrierborne aircraft to scout for them.

I think it would be nice if we could separate detection by scouting (nearby units, on hills or mountains, or airplanes) from Signal Intelligence (Interception of the enemies communications). Both allows you to detect an enemy prescence (with the exception of forrests/jungles for the first). But SigInt can give you more exact information and get info from enemies operating far into the fog of war.

A really cool multiplayer feature would be actually "see" the other players orders real time if you had a big enough SigInt advantage (or just happend to be allies). Not see what the orders are but to what zones he sent orders. This will prove to be a great defence towards "surprise" attacks that realistically not could have occured like huge German or Japanese forces sneaking in and landing on the US or UK mainland. And it would give you an advantage of knowing what front hes putting his effort into right now.

 

[Battlecry]

I think it would be nice if we could separate detection by scouting (nearby units, on hills or mountains, or airplanes) from Signal Intelligence (Interception of the enemies communications). Both allows you to detect an enemy prescence (with the exception of forrests/jungles for the first). But SigInt can give you more exact information and get info from enemies operating far into the fog of war.

A really cool multiplayer feature would be actually "see" the other players orders real time if you had a big enough SigInt advantage (or just happend to be allies). Not see what the orders are but to what zones he sent orders. This will prove to be a great defence towards "surprise" attacks that realistically not could have occured like huge German or Japanese forces sneaking in and landing on the US or UK mainland. And it would give you an advantage of knowing what front hes putting his effort into right now.

I agree with the "scouting" part - but SigInt never provides realtime information, unless the transmitter is foolish enough to do so in plain language.
Decoding takes time, and then the message has to be sifted through for useful data. One of the biggest issues with SigInt, then and now, is the sheer volume of strategically worthless data that shrouds the little tidbits of useful data - requiring massive numbers of analysts to find any info within days or weeks, to say nothing of real time.

 

[Amallric]

There is no way to hide ten thousand men with tanks trucks tents and other stuff in a forest, no matter how dense it is. I think too that intellgence could be reworked but there shouldn't be specific boni for units staying in Forest provinces.

 

[unmerged(71931)]

There is no way to hide ten thousand men with tanks trucks tents and other stuff in a forest, no matter how dense it is. I think too that intellgence could be reworked but there shouldn't be specific boni for units staying in Forest provinces.

Yup
it's the same thing Montgomery thought when he planned Market-Garden
Unfortunately for the Red Devils Bittrich guys proved otherwise

In more serious note:
Divs should have visibility value modified by orders.
Tank division movement is noisy and higly visible - dug in militia (partisans) is invisible
Detection possibility should be influenced by terrain.

 

[peo]

There is no way to hide ten thousand men with tanks trucks tents and other stuff in a forest, no matter how dense it is. I think too that intellgence could be reworked but there shouldn't be specific boni for units staying in Forest provinces.

Yup, at least if you are looking.
You can't move or supply and army without the roads which are quite easily seen from the air.

 

[Battlecry]

If the Japanese can hide 21,000 men on 21 sq. km of treeless Iwo Jima, I think it's not unreasonable to suggest that 10,000 men might hide in a forested area as represented ingame. "Digging in" inside a forest is frequently a matter of concealment, as protection can be manufactured in a matter of minutes.

Having spent many hours flying over the Canadian forests, I can tell you with some certainty that even a million men marching through heavy forest in daylight would be nigh on invisible from higher than 300 metres (circa 1,000ft) as long as they are making some effort to avoid clearings.

NOTE: Of course this is true only of mainly non-mechanized units - moving tanks would be quite visible from under 3,000 ft.

If terrains are represented as percentages, this percentage could modify the 'visibility' of a division. For instance while a single division in a 100% forest province might be totally (or nearly totally) invisible, a division in a 20% Plain, 80% forest province would have a 20% chance of detection, and so on.

Sidenote:
Much of the recent research on Market Garden indicates that Allied planners, including Montgomery and Browning, were fully aware of the presence of heavy mechanized/armoured units in Arnhem - they decided that the potential gain (ending the war sooner) was worth the risk.

 

[Myth]

I had this idea some time in the relatively recent past: what about, for each level of decryption over the enemy's encryption, army LOS at the front goes one province deeper (but at one lower tier of knowledge)?

 

[Alex_brunius]

but SigInt never provides realtime information, unless the transmitter is foolish enough to do so in plain language.
Decoding takes time, and then the message has to be sifted through for useful data. One of the biggest issues with SigInt, then and now, is the sheer volume of strategically worthless data that shrouds the little tidbits of useful data - requiring massive numbers of analysts to find any info within days or weeks, to say nothing of real time.

The info that someone is speaking is always realtime, no decoding needed for the man at the top to realize that since Its not one of our forces, so then it must be them.

So if we want a really detailed SigInt system everyone should see orders beeing issued exc. But only the ones with decryption advantage would know what units are there and what mission they have, with a delay. I was mostly thinking of a little radio symbol saying "something was here" though, to make naval interceptions easier.

 

[Amallric]

If the Japanese can hide 21,000 men on 21 sq. km of treeless Iwo Jima, I think it's not unreasonable to suggest that 10,000 men might hide in a forested area as represented ingame. "Digging in" inside a forest is frequently a matter of concealment, as protection can be manufactured in a matter of minutes.

They weren't hidden since the americans knew that they were there. They were entrenched, hard to target and then less vulnerable, ok, but this would be represented by digging in, not by "hidding". I'm only speaking of "hiding" from a strategic point of view.

Having spent many hours flying over the Canadian forests, I can tell you with some certainty that even a million men marching through heavy forest in daylight would be nigh on invisible from higher than 300 metres (circa 1,000ft) as long as they are making some effort to avoid clearings.

NOTE: Of course this is true only of mainly non-mechanized units - moving tanks would be quite visible from under 3,000 ft.

Well of course but the only units that can travel in that way in the forest are guerilla militias, all conventional armed forces travel in march columns along roads. One must add that even a plain infantry division is far more than just 10.000 men, there are trucks, horses etc. and the division just can't move otherwise than along a road or it goes totally messed up and unable to fight very quick.

You can surely hide a platoon or a compagny in order to ambush the enemy but surely not a division. Even if you hide it well the enemy will still know that it's here.

 

[Mierin]

The info that someone is speaking is always realtime, no decoding needed for the man at the top to realize that since Its not one of our forces, so then it must be them.

So if we want a really detailed SigInt system everyone should see orders beeing issued exc. But only the ones with decryption advantage would know what units are there and what mission they have, with a delay. I was mostly thinking of a little radio symbol saying "something was here" though, to make naval interceptions easier.

But realistically, wouldn't their be encrypted radio chatter nearly constantly from virtually every province controlled by a country? Would SigInt people be able to tell in realtime the difference between a carrier fleet moving towards japan and a lone (and abstracted as per HOI2) merchant marine vessel talking about rough waters or a panzer division in Munich from a government office in Munich?

 

[Battlecry]

The info that someone is speaking is always realtime, no decoding needed for the man at the top to realize that since Its not one of our forces, so then it must be them.

I see what you mean to some extent. For naval detection a small "radio signal detected here" symbol would be useful.

Well of course but the only units that can travel in that way in the forest are guerilla militias, all conventional armed forces travel in march columns along roads. One must add that even a plain infantry division is far more than just 10.000 men, there are trucks, horses etc. and the division just can't move otherwise than along a road or it goes totally messed up and unable to fight very quick.

Forest roads, especially the thin dirt variety omnipresent in Russia (of the 1940's, at least), are generally overhung by foliage, and so anything passing along them will be difficult, at best, to see. I will grant you that an aircraft flying low enough (-300M/1000') and performing reconnaissance would probably see them, as long as they were passing more or less directly overhead (from an angle you can't see much of anything).
Aircraft just passing by at a more reasonable altitude would not.

I'm not sure what type of terrain you're used to, but there are quite a few forested regions in this world that would hide a small city from the air, to say nothing of a single division. This is what I'm thinking of when I refer to a "100% Forest" province - the Ardennes or something similar would at no point be more than 60%, maybe 70% by such comparison.

 

[Alex_brunius]

But realistically, wouldn't their be encrypted radio chatter nearly constantly from virtually every province controlled by a country? Would SigInt people be able to tell in realtime the difference between a carrier fleet moving towards japan and a lone (and abstracted as per HOI2) merchant marine vessel talking about rough waters or a panzer division in Munich from a government office in Munich?

Probablly. Merchants marines and government offices wouldn't be very likely to use classified military codes. And these can be recognized quite easilly since any transmittion need to start the same way so that the reciever knows where and how to start decoding. This is ofcourse assuming that you have active SigInt officers actually listening. How this will or could be modelled will likely have to wait until we get a dev diary about Intel though.

 

[potski]

If the Japanese can hide 21,000 men on 21 sq. km of treeless Iwo Jima, I think it's not unreasonable to suggest that 10,000 men might hide in a forested area as represented ingame. "Digging in" inside a forest is frequently a matter of concealment, as protection can be manufactured in a matter of minutes.

Having spent many hours flying over the Canadian forests, I can tell you with some certainty that even a million men marching through heavy forest in daylight would be nigh on invisible from higher than 300 metres (circa 1,000ft) as long as they are making some effort to avoid clearings.

NOTE: Of course this is true only of mainly non-mechanized units - moving tanks would be quite visible from under 3,000 ft.

If terrains are represented as percentages, this percentage could modify the 'visibility' of a division. For instance while a single division in a 100% forest province might be totally (or nearly totally) invisible, a division in a 20% Plain, 80% forest province would have a 20% chance of detection, and so on.

Sidenote:
Much of the recent research on Market Garden indicates that Allied planners, including Montgomery and Browning, were fully aware of the presence of heavy mechanized/armoured units in Arnhem - they decided that the potential gain (ending the war sooner) was worth the risk.

I've never flown over Canadian forests, but I can see how a group of hikers that have got lost would be nearly impossible to spot, or a group of guerrillas that don't want to be found. But a million men? If they stop for the night, they are going to need an awful lot of latrines dug, and they are not going to be too happy marching on cold food and water. A mountain stream is great for a 20 or 30 people to get fresh water, but 10,000's? The people downstream of the one's washing, relieving themselves, etc. are going to get dysentry. Now where are you going to hide the hospitals for 10,000 sick men? So you need fires to cook and boil water, and 10,000's of fires are pretty hard to hide.

BTW - you do know that a 1940's army of a million marching men will require over 25,000 tons of supplies delivered to them every day? That's 10,000 2.5 ton trucks running continously along roads. I've never flown over Canadian forests, but I would have thought that many trucks are pretty easy to spot, especially as there won't be many roads for them to go along. And AFAIK pine trees grow straight-up, so even in Canada the roads are clearly visible from the air. In fact, you can even see them on Google Maps Satellite view.

I think you can be fairly sure there is an army present in the region. You might not be absolutely sure how many divisions, and you certainly have difficulty identifying artillery targets amongst the men "hiding" in the forests. But they can hardly sneak up on you.

 

[Battlecry]

Fine so a million was a gross exaggeration - I'll be sure to put a little note next to my "exaggerations for effect" every, single, time.

My main point is this - the most forested regions on the game map are places like Siberia etc, where the roads are extremely narrow and would not be readily visible from the air.

In such places a division or two would not be spotted easily by air, except for low altitude recon runs.

Notes:
a) Google's satellite view is taken from pictures taken when the sun is directly overhead of the area you're looking at. When this is not the case, a one-lane dirt road is barely visible, let alone anything on it.
b) Canadian range roads etc. are generally two lane, and are in many cases maintained by cutting away the trees within 3-4 metres of the road. Having tried to find a particular backroad on Google maps (about three weeks ago, in fact), I assure you there are plenty you can't see.
c) Pine trees grow straight up individually or in small groups - a forest of pine trees (except for the very largest trees - Redwoods etc) becomes a twisted, barely passable mess unless it's recent growth.

 

[Alex_brunius]

Didn't Germany sneak in around 10 panzer divisions (100'000men) through the ardennes forrest without the French noticing it, or have I gotten that part of history wrong?

Also remember that the smallest theoretical unit in the game could be a divison of a single brigade with 1000men. And thats few enough to at least think about if we need them to be able to hide in a forrest.

 

[out]

Yes, a few divisions would be very visible from the sky -- if you know where to look. Let's not forget that a province isn't the size of your backyard.

 

[peo]

Fine so a million was a gross exaggeration - I'll be sure to put a little note next to my "exaggerations for effect" every, single, time.

My main point is this - the most forested regions on the game map are places like Siberia etc, where the roads are extremely narrow and would not be readily visible from the air.

In such places a division or two would not be spotted easily by air, except for low altitude recon runs.

Notes:
a) Google's satellite view is taken from pictures taken when the sun is directly overhead of the area you're looking at. When this is not the case, a one-lane dirt road is barely visible, let alone anything on it.
b) Canadian range roads etc. are generally two lane, and are in many cases maintained by cutting away the trees within 3-4 metres of the road. Having tried to find a particular backroad on Google maps (about three weeks ago, in fact), I assure you there are plenty you can't see.
c) Pine trees grow straight up individually or in small groups - a forest of pine trees (except for the very largest trees - Redwoods etc) becomes a twisted, barely passable mess unless it's recent growth.

Roads are very visible from the air. Even narrow ones. But it doesn't matter since the best way is to look for supply and the supply for a army has to move on good roads. The trucks of the day wasn't that good at traversing mud roads in their thousands. You also need to realize that the aircraft we are talking about were flying at at most 1km or so. And if you are considering Siberia to be honest Siberia isn't that interesting from a gameplay point of view. The forested regions which are important are in Europe west of the Urals and the ones in the "japanese" area of asia.

Pinetrees grow in that way if they are planted or completely unkept for a very very long time. A normal kept forest, and remember that most northern forests have been kept for the last 500 or so years, doesn't look anything like that. Mainly since they were more a blend than anything.

In reality it quite simply isn't possible to hide an army (any larger unit than company really) in a forest. Simply since the supply can't move that way. The allies were surprised by the move through the Ardennes not because the units were hidden in any way. So not looking caused them not knowing.

 

[peo]

Didn't Germany sneak in around 10 panzer divisions (100'000men) through the ardennes forrest without the French noticing it, or have I gotten that part of history wrong?

Also remember that the smallest theoretical unit in the game could be a divison of a single brigade with 1000men. And thats few enough to at least think about if we need them to be able to hide in a forrest.

They didn't have 10 armoured divisions. But yes they attacked that way however if the French and Brittish hadn't been overconfident in the fact that it was impossible to move any armoured unit at all through a forrested area they would have been looking and seen it.
Also seem to remember that they actually did see most of it but thought "this isn't the real attack".

 

[Mierin]

In reality it quite simply isn't possible to hide an army (any larger unit than company really) in a forest. Simply since the supply can't move that way. The allies were surprised by the move through the Ardennes not because the units were hidden in any way. So not looking caused them not knowing.

Well landing or taking off from Atlanta, if it weren't for the skyscrapers in downtown, you couldn't tell if you were flying over a village of 4000 or a city of 4 million.

 

[peo]

Well landing or taking off from Atlanta, if it weren't for the skyscrapers in downtown, you couldn't tell if you were flying over a village of 4000 or a city of 4 million.

10km isn't 1km.
A window the size of a football isn't a glass cockpit, as for me I can see quite clearly the difference between a large city and a village.