I really like the idea of tiered CBs for this. Allies and your vassals get none, fellow vassals of the same realm get an opinion hit and have a low % of getting a CB, increasing opinion hit and % of getting a CB through same culture, same culture group, same religion - different culture, different religion, rivals (I think rival rulers should get a guaranteed CB should you cross their lands).
This could represent the likelihood of your leaders and soldiers behaving themselves and/or respecting the towns and villages of the province they are moving through. Heretic armies should maybe get a higher mark, and possibly also armies belonging to the wrong government type. (You could imagine an independent duke's apprehension of a large, republican army approaching his territory, whatever their stated purpose)
This could represent the likelihood of your leaders and soldiers behaving themselves and/or respecting the towns and villages of the province they are moving through. Heretic armies should maybe get a higher mark, and possibly also armies belonging to the wrong government type. (You could imagine an independent duke's apprehension of a large, republican army approaching his territory, whatever their stated purpose)
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