See part of the outrageous AE is because they got caught trying to sow discontent, and ever since the Cold War patch AE from separate events is multiplicitave of each other, not additive.
So they have gotten caught Support Rebels, Sow Discontent, and have invaded their neighbor, who was attempting to add territory to the HRE. Multiplied together and Russia really needs to start a new game, or lie low for a few decades. To top it off, they got caught doing the same thing 6 years ago in the same region. No wonder a coalition is forming.
All said this seems to be WAD.