Fire

[unmerged(15337)]

By fire I mean not infantry fire, but rather flames, as in something burning down. I have had two manufactories catch fire. What I am wondering is if this is purely random or if the player can do anything to reduce the risk?

In the one case I got a gift weapons manufactory, which burned down about 3 years later. Easy come, easy go.

In the other case I saved carefully for almost a decade in order to build a fine arts academy. It burned down about 30 years later. Now that's a pretty big investment down the drain. Question: how much time does it take for a manufactory to pay for itself? E.g. in the case of my fine arts academy did I end up with a profit or a loss? Are there any rules of thumb here in order to guide investment strategy?

 

[Slargos]

There is AFAIK a 3% risk of your manufactory burning to the ground every time an enemy troop plunders the province (the little town graphic starts to burn). Simply keep the enemy away and you will be fine.

Building larger fortresses to keep small bands of raiders from plundering the province also helps marginally.

As for the ROI of a manufactory, it's fairly short, one of the best investments out there, IIRC. I'm sure someone will come along to do the maths shortly.

 

[unmerged(9811)]

I don't think fortresses make it harder to plunder the province, just harder to capture it.

 

[unmerged(15337)]

But my fine arts academy was in Moscow and no enemy ever set foot there during this time. Nor have I ever had rebels in my own capital (although I've seen it in other countries).

As for the weapons plant, it was in Tambow, and I don't think I had any enemies there but I really don't know. Unfortunately the creation and destruction of this plant aren't in the log so I can't check the records against revolts or enemy sieges.

 

[Slargos]

Originally posted by Ifurita
I don't think fortresses make it harder to plunder the province, just harder to capture it.

Bigger fortress requires bigger force to enter province.

 

[Szordrin]

Originally posted by Slargos
Bigger fortress requires bigger force to enter province.

Since when? Or was it always like this? IIRC there's a 'Fire' event that destroy manufactories. Regarding the sacking thing, this feature is one i'm not so happy about. There should be a minimum requirement of enemy troops to be able to sack a province, and make it at least 15k, and this will help along with the abuse sacking thing. Think it like this: if the province is poor, it's barely able to sustain the invading force, so no bonus income for the invaders. Tweak out the ideea and say what you think!

 

[Castellon]

There is a random event that can burn down your factories. You just were unlucky and had two.

 

[TheLoneTaco]

wow, never heard of that event.

to help with these calculations:

if you built that fine arts academy in your capital, its 12 ducats a year.

plus 5 ducats a month to stablity investments.

every year you make 72 ducats back, assuming that you were never at +3 stability. given the manufactory cost 720 ducats, thats 10 years to break even. more expensive manufactories take that much longer.

however, the fine arts academy is the only manufactory that doesn't give another bonus (as far as i know). for instance, weapons give higher support rates, naval you can support more boats, refinery adds +1 to your trade efficiency, and i think goods add +1 to your production efficiency. this means that if you have anything beside a fine arts, its actually less than 10 years to turn a profit, depending on how much you need supportable amounts or trade and production effiency.

-Matt

 

[unmerged(15623)]

Originally posted by Slargos
Bigger fortress requires bigger force to enter province.

They don't really make it harder to enter province, they just cause too small armies to flee. It doesn't mean thet hostile troops can't plunder the province while visiting it.

 

[Peter Ebbesen]

Originally posted by TheLoneTaco
wow, never heard of that event.

It was disabled from an early patch level (1.02 or so??) because of crybabies bemoaning the loss of manufactories to the capricious twists of fate.

It was reintroduced with the new scaled random event set, and only occurs for nations of countrysize 30+

(Yes, it does not make any sense at all that only large nations have "devastating fires", but it is a way to avoid the howling of the bereft, since it is not all that great a loss for a 30+ province nation)

 

[Rio]

Um, there are other bonuses that are difficult to quantify in a strictly financial way that come from manufactories such as increased growth, and reduced rr. These types of things are very handy and over time also translate to more cash and greater manpower and recruitment capabilities. Don't think I would care to try to estimate the roi on those aspects.

From the standpoint of invading marauders, it is a good idea to recall that in the time dominated by gameplay, manufactories would not have been so terribly numerous that those that DID exist wouldn't have gained some reputation in the region, and be natural magnets for malcontents or hungry armies, regardless of the size. Size owuld not have been neccessary to comb the entire province simply because everyone would know where these substantial sources of activity existed. By the same token, were there sizeable troops available in the location, you would see one of your own troop markers there!

There are both random events that reduce your manufactory count, and the possibility that invaders ruin your day in the same way. Don't build them where they are at risk, and rather than build a fortress (which might just as likely be taken by a revolt in the province), spend the cash on troops to garrison locations where you have built manufactories. If you are risk averse, spend the cash on indelible improvements first, such as promotions.

 

[unmerged(8894)]

Its a somewhat annoying event but I was disappointed when it was removed and am glad to see it back. Gives a bit of risk to building them because is always that slight chance it will burn.

 

[Rio]

Azog,
Agree entirely. Peter has it right that there is little sense in making it apply only to those countries where there are more than 30 provinces, but its better than nothing.

 

[unmerged(6779)]

Manufactories are a so good investment that it needs balance. The "Fire" event is a good thing IMHO.

 

[Orm]

Originally posted by Väinö I
They don't really make it harder to enter province, they just cause too small armies to flee. It doesn't mean thet hostile troops can't plunder the province while visiting it.

No, it is actually impossible to enter the province with a force that is too small... unless you have troops there already. And AFAIK the size needed depends on the size of the fortress.

 

[kurtbrian]

Originally posted by beowulf
No, it is actually impossible to enter the province with a force that is too small... unless you have troops there already. And AFAIK the size needed depends on the size of the fortress.

I believe you are right

 

[Peter Ebbesen]

Originally posted by kurtbrian
I believe you are right

Yes, he is:

1K/fortress level. When below this, you cannot enter. Additionally, if an army is already in an enemy province and its strength falls below 1K/fortress level, it will auto flee. If it cannot flee, it will disband. (This occasionally happens to rebels in poor and sparesely populated provinces)

 

[SJG]

I don't have a problem with factories being destroyed by hostile action, although surely a manufactury would be inside the city walls and should therefore only have a chance of being destroyed when the province is captured (and it being twice as high when the province captured in an assault).

But, I think the fire event is a bad thing. There are two reasons for this:

1) Thirty is a completely arbitrary number. It has no significance.

2) It does not depend on how many manufactories you have. Logically someone who has 100 manufactories should be 100 times more likely to get the event. Whereas, in fact, if both are over 30 provinces - it is the same. This is absurd.

If you are going to add a risk it should be on a per-manufactory basis. I seem to remember that in the save file every manufactory has a "birth-date", as it were. Now, factories don't have unlimited lifespans so when a manufactory is build it should be given a "death-date", that is random between, say, 10 and 400 years. When this death date comes - the factory goes. This way the risk is proportional to the number of manufactories and a factory has a limited life span.

Obviously the numbers could be tweaked, but this is the fairest and, numbers notwithstanding, most realistic way I can think it could be done.

 

[Peter Ebbesen]

Originally posted by SJG
I don't have a problem with factories being destroyed by hostile action, although surely a manufactury would be inside the city walls and should therefore only have a chance of being destroyed when the province is captured (and it being twice as high when the province captured in an assault).

The fortification value does not necessarily mean city walls. It denotes the strength of the total fortifications and the garrison of the province, which may - or may not - be the fortifications of the largest city of the province, and, assuming it is the fortifications of a single city, will likely denote both the outer defenses of the city wall and the much stronger inner defenses of a citadel.

Thus it would seem a false assumption that the manufactory is within the fortifications.

But, I think the fire event is a bad thing. There are two reasons for this:

1) Thirty is a completely arbitrary number. It has no significance.

2) It does not depend on how many manufactories you have. Logically someone who has 100 manufactories should be 100 times more likely to get the event. Whereas, in fact, if both are over 30 provinces - it is the same. This is absurd.

1) Correct
2) Random events only react based on a very limited number of triggers. Their frequency rarely depend on your countrysize at all - only their severity. This goes for uncooperative philsophers, peasant uprisings, sale of offices, random manufactories, meteor sightings (visible throughout your realm, but not through your neighbours' ), &etc. Thus, by this reasoning, nearly all random events are absurd* In other words, it is not a specific property of the fire random event, and thus not a reason against that one in particular.


* In fact, they are absurd. However, they add spice and unpredictability to the game, so that is all right

 

[Wyvern]

Originally posted by Peter Ebbesen
It was disabled from an early patch level (1.02 or so??) because of crybabies bemoaning the loss of manufactories to the capricious twists of fate.

It was reintroduced with the new scaled random event set, and only occurs for nations of countrysize 30+

(Yes, it does not make any sense at all that only large nations have "devastating fires", but it is a way to avoid the howling of the bereft, since it is not all that great a loss for a 30+ province nation)

I got this event in the Tsunami weekend game as Russia when I had exactly 30 provinces. My first refinery burnt down just as I finished building my second. I was not amused and may have been wont to curse your name as I assumed you'd slipped it in with your new scaled random events. I can say it was a *major* loss for Russia who is not rich even with 30 provinces and can well do without such an event.