Kanitatlan said:
Here is a sample (likely) strengths for various countries for autumn 1939
SU 1350 IC, 775 divisions
UK 480 IC, 214 divisions
Poland 190 IC, 131 divisions
France 279 IC, 232 divisions
USA 1020 IC, 63 divisions but not yet joined the allies
Canada 257 IC
Given this, and your concerns about the shape of a secondary Poland campaign, what shall the opening force deployments be like?
I understand your unwillingness to do things by halves, but there are some opportunities and risks out there that can require a division of forces. I would suggest an amalgam of some of the options I've suggested thus far.
A naval expeditionary force pre-deployed to its maximum effective range (3000km) on the route from Wilhelmshafen to Split. This fleet would include a naval superiority force capable of standing off the Italian navy and defending landing operations. The transport component of the fleet would include no less than three TPs, so as to allow opposed landings to succeed.
The first DoW would be upon Yugoslavia, and armour would exploit through Ljubljana to take Rijeka. A naval base in the queue would be deployed at Rijeka, allowing the fleet to rebase to the med without waiting for Split to be captured. Split and Podgorica would probably be more appropriate bases for the bulk of the fleet in the middle term, as they will have a higher base level.
When Yugo airbases have been captured, they should be used to support the fleet in combat against any forces in the adriatic. In the meantime, the airbase in Vienna and any new airbases deployed in the captured territory during the initial advance. A handful of naval bombers could go a long way.
Italy, of course, is the next target. Yugo will bring in other countries (saving the belligerance of the DoW's on these minors), but the whole idea here is to have a field force of transports early in the med and the ability to use them to capture the Italian colonies. As you said, minimal force should be deployed against the minor threat posed by these belligerant minors (eg Yugo beyond the desired initial advance, Hungary, Greece when the advance goes that far).
Likewise, the Siegfried line is defended with a minimal force. The size of this "minimal" force depends upon the strength of the enemy force. Absolute worst case? Saarbruecken faces 24 divs from Strassbourg in hills without a river barrier. Stuttgart faces a maximum of 48 divs in hills with a river barrier. What's the minimal force level, accounting for terrain and forts? 16 divs each? A conservative estimate's a good idea.
The rest of the armed forces, outside of such places as Kiel and the Danish border to capture Kolding in case of Baltic landings, would be deployed against Poland and Italy. Amphibious landings would allow for the capture of the african colonies and an accelerated capture of the southern part of the boot. I would suggest that it is indeed possible to deploy a sufficiently large force to fight both campaigns at once if needbe.
Italy would be the priority if needbe. Once the north is broken, the campaign is won. A flank attack through Foggia, Naples, or Taranto would cut down on the time, but once armour gets near the plains, the only chance they have is to get a good number of survivors to Sicily. If Sicily, Ethiopia, and Libya can be captured before the RN gets into the fight, Italy is annexed.
The most dangerous and potentially costly objective is Addis Addiba. Its well inland, and the dastardly navy can hit the German navy where you can't deploy a 15CV taskforce: its convoys. A single mountain division should be sent on an escorted TP to take Massaua immediately after the fleet reaches the first mediterranean base. By the time those mountaineers reach the VP province, the Italian mainland should be overrun.
A side note: it may not be possible to evacuate Ethiopia before the general war begins. Choices to consider after Italy is annexed include disbanding the mountain division - in which case the fleet task force should definitely be sent back to mediterranean ASAP after ensuring that the mountain div isn't cut off on its advance, supplying the division from Germany - at the cost of convoy losses, or immediately attempting to secure Suez from bases in Libya and Ethiopia.
The Polish force would receive its split of the forces to ensure that a Polish campaign can proceed effectively if and when the Allies DoW. There should be at least some respite before this major DoW, and an initial bias of the Luftwaffe towards Italy would seem appropriate.
All fronts are covered, risks are minimized, and Italy can be taken in the cheapest manner possible. The map begins to look like a fall '39 variant of A&A.
Soviet manpower should be getting on for 5 per day
With my dififculty settings any AI factory builds turn into explosive industrial growth. Each factory the Soviets build will be worth something like 3.15 IC. This soon turns into rather a dramatic growth .....
Well then, it'll just have to get taken down early. Sealion in fall '39?
