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VILenin

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Kanitatlan said:
My guess would be too much spying. They have stolen the blueprints and are researching it because it is so much easier than researching something useful. I must arrange for some more useless blueprints to be left out for the spies. Unfortunately I will have to arrange for this in another country sees there are no Soviet spies in Germany (let me get my reply in first "No there aren't")
Well, since you've pre-empted my comeback...

I guess I'm just sorrounded by idiots and party lackeys. The burden of compotent leadership. ;) Do you find that doctrines tend to be the first thing stolen by spies? It certainly seems that way in my games.
 

Kanitatlan

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WhisperingDeath We will not be waiting for you to return but your namesake will have seen action against the Russians by the time you get back.

VILenin This is the first game where I have made a point of spending lots of cash on stealing blueprints. This is the list taken so far...

Early Marines
Basic Naval Bomber (now researched)
Improved Air Transport (now researched)
Improved Oil Refining (now researched)
Basic Strategic Bomber
7 useless land doctrines
Basic Anti-Tank
2 useless naval doctrines
2 air doctrines (both of which I will research)

Draw your own conclusions. They are in very approximate order of acquisition. Things started off not too bad but 1939 has seen a huge stack of useless doctrines. There remain quite a few useless doctrines I could pick up but air doctrines would actually be gratefully received. I'm not sure whether the balance is due to a bias or simply that there are so many irrelevant doctrines to be picked up.

I did read a thread once where someone had carried out repeated stealing (over and over from a save) and always got exactly the same sequence of technologies from the particular country no matter how many tries where made. This suggests there is at least a deterministic process even if it doesn't just work off some sort of list.
 
Last edited:

Corbett

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Good luck vs. the Russians, but I don't think you'll need it. An army of 10000 manpower may be imposing, especially when they stand on eachother's shoulders like that, (talk about counter stacking!) but at 40:1 kill ratio you only really need to lose 250 manpower to walk all over them. You should be able to afford that, especially considering that (in my opinion) the USSR is really the strongest state in game based on their superior starting sliders/ministers/position and total lack of peace penalty for their IC in comparison to the USA. Besides, they get massive manpower, as we've seen here!

(If, however, you need another general to garrison some far-flung Russian province after you've waltzed all over them, sign me up - M45137 is the image file I asked to have used in the cooperative Argentinian AAR, and I think it's time for that poor guy to get a bit further from the heat.)
 
Last edited:

The_Carbonater

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Sign me in as "provincial reich general kommisar" if there place enough ;)
Could we get a world map, please?
Btw. outstanding AAR, both this and the Soviet one.... :)
 

Mahrabal

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Kanitatlan said:
I did read a thread once where someone had carried out repeated stealing (over and over from a save) and always got exactly the same sequence of technologies from the particular country no matter how many tries where made. This suggests there is at least a deterministic process even if it doesn't just work off some sort of list.


I bet you got Early Marines and Improved Oil Refining from the UK?
They are always the first two I get from them anyway.
And you will get CVL techs from Japan.

Any chance you could check if I have commanded in any conflicts yet?
 

Kanitatlan

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Corbett You may be being a little over optimistic. My current estimate is that they have manpower for about 1200 divisions. If they have time to "respond" to my invasion I could be facing significantly more forces than the current estimate of 1000 divisions. Their manpower income must be somewhere in the 5-8 per day range.

Also, there is a distinctive qualitative difference in the current Soviet deployment. The difficulty modifiers have resulted in much higher force density. This has an effect of its own and will inhibit the speed with which I can defeat the Soviets. I'm not sure of the ultimate impact and have no reason to believe it will affect the final outcome but I am expecting the whole process to be more of a struggle than normal.

The_Carbonater See below for world map and general pre-Barbarossa round up.

Mahrabal Bang on with the blueprints. The big question I have is what I will get out of the US after they run out of useless doctrines for me to steal.

2r548zt.jpg


Not very exciting I'm afraid. (attempted amphibious landing in Spain)
 

Kanitatlan

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May 4th 1940

This isn’t the date of Barbarossa but it is the day when I decided my forces were ready. I am now lined up on the Russian frontier and there is little left to do before declaring war. Some minor air moves and the navy putting to sea. Virtually all my forces are now deployed in the east and all stand ready. Under the circumstances its seems appropriate to do a little round up of the world situation.

2v8j1om.jpg


Europe

In the European theatre my position appears unassailable. The closes enemy held territory is the Azores which, being Portuguese held, is no threat at all. It may be their capital but it has pitifully little capability to support forces due to their low IC level and therefore cannot be used as a base for any significant activity. Moving further a field and the next enemy bases are Newfoundland (British) and Canada. I cannot see any major transatlantic operations occurring in the foreseeable future leaving my western garrisons appearing completely safe. Things should be completely secure until the USA joins in.

40pg58y.jpg


Italy

The Italian position against the Allies appears quite good. Between us we have secured the Mediterranean and the Italians look to be on the brink of completing the conquest of Egypt and Iraq. I don’t really care what they do as long as they keep the Mediterranean secure. They have still not captured Malta of Cyprus but I am not really concerned. Presumably they will one day finally get round to it.

2u4rmdt.jpg


Japan

The Japanese war on China seems to be in their favour at the moment but I have no clear insight into future success or failure in this theatre. I don’t really mind what happens here but it would be nice for the Japanese to perform as a distraction for the USA when they join the conflict.
 

Kanitatlan

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2j195d2.jpg


Weather

Back where the action is, the weather really doesn’t look appropriate for an invasion just yet. Weather is a serious issue but there are pros as well as cons for an early attack. The fact is that the strength of Russia that needs defeating by the, as yet somewhat distant, winter is not increased by attacking early. Killing units now or later is much the same so the only important issue is to have sufficient clear weather to carry out operations. If they are inhibited a bit by rain this is not a disaster as long as my plan allows for it. I am going to launch the attack before reliable good weather sets in since I believe I will need significantly more time than normal. The main thing is to get some nice clear conditions in the western Ukraine. I will be campaigning there for about two weeks and will only then be looking for clear weather further north or east.
 

Kanitatlan

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2w54q3b.jpg


Airfields

This says it all. This indicates my airfield availability along the eastern borders. As you can see I have built a lot of airfields to accommodate my somewhat oversized air force. These airfields will still be significantly overloaded but the critical factor is not initial capacity but capacity for repairing and re-orging damaged units. Ideally some of the forward level airfields will have their occupancy reduced to capacity for this purpose when air units move forward into the few available Russian airfields. I am expecting significant air opposition so the efficient operation of my fighters is critical. I need air superiority to operate all those bombers.

Intelligence shows the Russians are 1 air tech behind on all types and therefore I have a technology advantage but they are researching and so later in the summer they will be operating similar technology fighters. Ideally I want to deplete their air force as soon as possible to reduce difficulties when they upgrade. This is another reason for getting on with it and invading soon.
 

Kanitatlan

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2zyc2gp.jpg


Deployment (sprites instead of counters so the Russians don’t obscure everything)

My forces (on this front) consist of

48 armour III +Spart II
48 motorised II +imp art
5 paratroop+imp art
10 mountain+imp art
127 infantry 41 +imp art
6 HQ
48 interceptor
56 CAS
44 TAC (+about 27 escort)

Deployed as follows

4 panzer groups of 12 arm + 12 mot deployed in Presove, Prezymsl and Zamosc (2 groups). 3 motorised divisions are missing from Zamosc and deployed in Memel as a Baltics rapid reaction force. Memel has the 10 mountain divisions waiting to load into transports for amphibious operations in the Baltic. The 5 divisions at Konigsberg are the paratroops. All remaining troops along the front line are infantry divisions except for 1 HQ in each frontline province. I am considering sending surplus infantry from Suwalki southwards and 1 HQ (probably Lomza) to join a panzer group in Zamosc.

The air force is heavily deployed along the front with some tactical bombers held back a bit since they have more range. There are some tactical bombers operating out of Stockholm. I plan to move my air force even further forward before actually striking so that I can achieve maximum density deep fighter cover and full operational flexibility for the tactical bombers with escorts due to their intermediate range.


My intelligence indicates that the Russians have ...

938 infantry
51 armour
57 fighter
9 bomber

I suspect the division count is low and the air force information is completely unbelievable. The fighter count could be right but I would easily believe a bit more. The bomber count is ridiculous under the circumstances and I am certain it is at least 5 times that count.

Looking along the frontline you can see I have very limited information on the Russian forces. In counter mode you can count the counters and clearly there are around 24+ divisions in each province. There also looks like potentially major armour presence in the Western Ukraine so I could be striking into a hornets nest when I attack. I don’t know what the army intelligence problem is since their intelligence minister, Ivan Proskurov, is a dismal enigma (+5% intelligence) and not a logistics expert. This is something of a surprise and will be having a discernible impact on operations, as I cannot be sure exactly what I am attacking. The Soviets seem to have achieved something of a success in this intelligence area. This is quite odd since I already have improved encryption/decryption and I can’t see them being much ahead if at all.
 

Brad1

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May I suggest that you save now and when you are done with the Soviet Union go back to this save and lgive us a complete report on the Soviet Union, mostly so we can know how many units you actually faced and destroyed.
 

Mahrabal

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How many spies do you have in the USSR.
I was alarmed to find in my current UK game that when you have 10 spies in the intell is not complete random guess work (they said Germany had 23 smaller vessels and it turns out they had 23 Uboats in port, you could have knocked me down with a feather. Saying that, there is porbably another 50 at sea which they never told me about).

My war record my be small, but it shows that I have a 100% success rate a killing French men, thats something to be proud of, BRING ON THE MEXICANS!!
 

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Kanitatlan said:
I don’t know what the army intelligence problem is

I belive the lack of intelligence is related to closed society, that is you need a significant superiority in intelligence research to be able to get division numbers against a closed society country.
 

Corbett

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Good luck! The weather should have cleared up within a week. The USSR will be able to continue cranking out absolutely obscene numbers of units, from the looks of it... so it's probably important to advance at such a speed that they're stuck strategic-redeploying everything. At least, that's my "guy who plays on normal" opinion...
 

unmerged(24320)

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Kanitatlan: ...This is another reason for getting on with it and invading soon.

agreed ! ! attacking sooner is better than attacking later! ! :cool:
 

Kanitatlan

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Brad1 I already have a save at this point. I tend to keep them all in AARs so we can have a look later on.

Mahrabal, Profane I have 9/10 spies in the Soviet Union. I have been up to ten and started trying to steal blueprints. The intelligence reports tend to vary a bit over time but not by very much. I suspect the errors are systematic (as Profane suggests) badly affected by Soviet slider settings.

Corbett the weather may clear a bit but there will probably be a fair bit of mud around somewhere for a few weeks yet. The Soviets won't get stuck redeploying everything since the SR limit has been set to 5%. That means no more than 50 divisions at one time which should be a big relief for their TC.

GhostWriter Now, now, calm the impatience. We will get there soon.
 

Kanitatlan

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Some Analysis

The Minister set is now changed for the following (some mentioned earlier):

Resigned Generalissimo: +10% supplies, +15% TC
Silent Workhorse, Admin Genius, Industrial Specialist: +20% IC
Prince of Terror, +15% foreign IC

Guns and Butter: -15% supply use
Manoeuvre: +10% speed

This is worth a bit of discussion about the focus being applied. The main target here is more TC and movement. The underlying objective is to maximise movement capability and the whole lot are really aimed at this single target. More IC means more TC and less supply usage is equivalent to more TC and so on. It is worth perhaps looking at some other choices.

If I had an Armoured Spearhead HoA then I would get a +5% offensive modifier on all my armoured divisions (including the attached SPA brigade, although I don’t see how brigades are treated separately). The build cost reduction is pretty irrelevant. It is interesting to consider whether this is worth more than –15% supplies over the whole army. The armoured divisions probably represent about 30% of the effective combat days for the forthcoming campaign and therefore this is something like a 1.5% increase in total army strength.

Whilst operating (rather than idle) my armed forces consume about 800 oil per day and 560 supplies (after current adjustments for leaders and ministers). This is a TC load of 1360 which gives me fully loaded TC. I will be using offensive supply on top, which will account for an additional 260 oil and 160 supplies. (By the way I am finally using the new supply pie charts from the statistics screens to get this data). The 15% reduction in supply use from the Guns and Butter HoA is saving me 127 supplies per day (a significant IC saving if nothing else), which is about 6.8% saving in TC. This actually translates to a 1.7% increase in army combat capability along with a speed increase. So this nicely shows this as a better choice.

The Manoeuvre chief of staff is a bit daring as the loss of manpower income may be significant (-20% against current manpower). Given my current precarious manpower position this is exceedingly daring.

The industrial figures that count for anything are the following:

IC = 618/463
TC = 1279, partisans –53.2, occupation –20
Manpower 44 with +1.29 per day

As you can see the manpower position is insanely precarious but I don’t plan to take heavy casualties and I intend to minimise the casualty rate. With the reduced manpower cost of replacements (80% of face value) and the return rate of wounded soldiers this amounts to manpower for replacing about 100 manpower of losses per month with one months worth in hand. This of course assumes I am building nothing. As it is builds are slackening of to very little. When it comes down to it I have several Austrian divisions with zero experience that are ripe for disbandment and that is what will happen. I have the ICs to replace them with 20 experience divisions so that would be sensible anyway. In fact it is reasonable to assume that is what my build policy has already amounted to. This can return me 275 manpower but will kind of denude Western Europe of defensive forces. Still, I don’t need to do this yet and there is no immense harm in letting some units run a few percent below strength.
 

Kanitatlan

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Here are a few German units for your viewing pleasure. All have brigades so this set is truly representative of all forces on the Eastern front.

2llc07m.jpg


Divisions

2hd1clj.jpg


Air Units

These are a few “estimated” Russian units. I have picked out a few from other saved games which I believe will be a reasonable guess at what I am facing. I have shown light and medium tanks as the Russians will have built quite a few light tanks but I changed their build priority to medium so there should be a fair few mediums as well (it was in the AAR quite sometime back). Their tank technology is usually up to date so I am assuming model III for both which I am fairly certain will be reasonable.

I am confident that their infantry tech will be one step behind with similar issues with brigades due to a slow upgrade process. I have no idea what level of 1936 infantry to expect so I haven’t shown any. The garrison division is present since I have seen at least one along the border which suggests there are quite a few.

33bjzn4.jpg


48d9w14.jpg


Current Russian upgrade settings are at +50% time and cost and will therefore cost 29% of new cost. With 200+ IC devoted to upgrades this should be enough to upgrade may be 3 infantry per day of 1000 per year. On this sort of upgrade program it would be quite believable if there are very few 1936 divisions left. I am really not sure whether I should assume the usual mix of obsolete divisions that the Russians deploy. This is my first DD game and the upgrade penalty from the army slider is halved. They are currently on a central setting on the army slider – no idea how they got there – but this (and the DD change) is what has restrained their upgrade costs.

Comparing German air combat scores with Russian ones indicates a dramatic advantage in interceptor vs fighter combat and probably similar for interceptors. I wouldn’t be surprised if a one for one combat had my fighters inflicting double casualties and org loss. The org levels suggest air combat could quickly go even more in my favour. Unfortunately I have little opportunity to determine whether this alternate save game is a plausible model. (If their over command issues spread over they will do even worse).
 
Last edited:

Kanitatlan

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Experience Levels
Average ground unit experience (for this front) is about 22 but may be as high as 23 for the mobile forces (wow, hope you are all thrilled by that). The highest is a mere 25.1 so there is not a great deal of variation across the entire army. This is typical of a Kanitatlan army and hopefully the experience levels will not be a great deal higher by the end of the campaign (experience = casualties).

Air units are an entirely different matter entirely. Experience ranges from 85 down to 20 with the spread being fairly even except for the most recently built 25% which are all at 20 experience. The average for the Eastern front is probably around 40 due to the influx of new units. The campaign is expected to cause this to ramp up rapidly at least for the bomber units.

Event the fighters are doing fairly well with significant experience for all ranging up to 35. Even the Austrian interceptor has managed to reach 17.2 experience and is nearly as good as my brand new units. Like the bombers there are a few new fighters all at 20 experience.

The naval position is interesting with the CV fleet showing a range from 42.4 to 51.5 experience. This is a relatively narrow range when you realise the rest of the fleet peaks at 21.7. Overall this makes my main CV fleet 23% stronger in naval combat whilst the rest are up a mere 10%. Rather sadly this does not seem to affect shore bombardment capability so that remains at current levels.

Bear in mind that even the base level of 20 gives a 10% boost to all my divisions compared with the big fat zero for the Russians. The air unit average is giving bonuses up to 40% with an suggested average of 20%. This is starting to be quite significant. As experience ramps up I should be able to get air unit average bonuses up to 30% without too much difficulty and a few units should be up to +50% by mid campaign.