It's not about your chances, but of the certainty that the AI will behave foolishly and might not manage to prevent you from walking that far.
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It's not about your chances, but of the certainty that the AI will behave foolishly and might not manage to prevent you from walking that far.
Considering that Hitler's and Stalin's armies seem to be equally matched in the east, every bit could make itself felt. If nothing else, the Italians can show the Germans how to properly trade land for time and how to sack a few Russians divisions while on it.
Wow, just read the whole thing, very intresting! Looking forward to the next update
I'm actually hoping to see the soviets to answer your offensive in force, and see how you'd deal with that. It would make another amazing read, to see you retreat again and to see what you do then.
No offence, I'd love to see you win in the end, but it just seems very interesting, and a uphill battle with a clear non-AI underdog is allways more fun to read than a walk over ;-)
Krog
No offence, I'd love to see you win in the end, but it just seems very interesting, and a uphill battle with a clear non-AI underdog is allways more fun to read than a walk over ;-)
Krog
Juan_de_Marco: Hehe. Well, to be fair, I routinely don't tell you people my objectives until I've accomplished them, so that's plausible.
Yes it is what I enjoy particularly about your writing style, the guesswork I have to do while reading feels like playing against you, sort of.
Enewald: So my chances then.
Baltasar: Yeah, that's true.
nidaros: Thanks!
Krogzar: Hehe. To be fair, same here.
Juan_de_Marco: Huh, that's interesting. I'll have to think about that.
loki100: Ah yes, the math quizzes.
Update tonight, lads!
Baltasar: Yeah, that's true.
nidaros: Thanks!
Krogzar: Hehe. To be fair, same here.
Juan_de_Marco: Huh, that's interesting. I'll have to think about that.
loki100: Ah yes, the math quizzes.
Update tonight, lads!
The Year of Returned Hope
Part 6: The Indirect Approach V, May 7 – May 24, 1943
In Clausewitz’s opus magnum, On War, one of the major features that distinguishes defense from offense as the superior of the two is the culminating point of victory. This culminating point comes when the attack has petered out, when offensive power has been diluted from requirements for manpower for securing the rear and the losses from casualties and friction. It is the point that the attack has sufficiently weakened that it becomes impossible and in its stead the defense takes over. At the same time, the defender had been forced to fall back onto his rearmost positions, closest to his bases of supply and his sources of reinforcement. At this uneasy point the war is finely balanced; though the defense inherently has the greater advantages, notwithstanding the damage done and industries and resources lost from the prior campaign, the further prosecution of the war rests upon the relative regenerative capabilities of both belligerents.
Beginning in mid-May, the specter of the culminating point of victory progressively grew to haunt Mussolini more and more. The defense was ultimately the stronger form of warfare and this Mussolini knew well. Italy was, however, on the attack. The Soviet defense was slowly strengthening, and from reports filing onto his desk Mussolini could see its growing effects. The changes were subtle, but they were increasing in scope despite continuing Italian victories. Bastico extended army went onto the offensive in the north, trying to keep the Soviets off balance. Two Soviet divisions were trapped and destroyed at Zvornik at the cost of nearly four hundred and seventy Italian lives. Other battles also took place: at Srbobran, at Ljubinje, at Novi Sad and at Foca. All were victories, but the price of victory a climbing ever higher. Over twenty-three hundred Italian lives were claimed in the process of gaining these victories, but so about thirty-five hundred Soviet lives were destroyed as well. In the south, meanwhile, the Soviets were simply shoving more troops into the ever shrinking battle area in an attempt to impose sufficient friction on the Italians to bring them to a halt.
The Italian advance was continuing despite ever increasing Soviet resistance.
Rudo, Dubrovnik, Prijepojie, Herceg-Novi, Ada. The roll of Italian victories continued, as did the inevitable drumbeat of carnage. Nearly three thousand Italians and over four thousand two hundred Soviets gave up the ghost in these battles. With operational surprise gone and tactical density increasing, casualties mounted rapidly. Italian momentum was too great for the Soviets to so easily halt them, but friction and casualties would take their toll eventually. On May 12th, however, a new ally appeared to aid the Italians. Rebels. Illyrian rebels materialized just south of the Hungarian border and immediately declared for Italy. It seemed that the Illyrians preferred Fascism to Communistic paradise. It would take the Soviets numerous divisions and some time to defeat this rebellion, though in the end they would defeat it. In the meantime, however, they served Mussolini well by providing both a minor distraction for the Soviets and useful intelligence for Mussolini. In the south, Soviet divisions were simply being ground down by the Italians. The Soviets had finally even achieved superior numbers in the area: at Herceg-Novi the Soviets had fielded four divisions of three brigades each against two Italian divisions of two brigades. In terms of manpower, these divisions varied, with one nearly full in strength but the other three ranging from ten percent under strength to thirty or even forty percent. However, most tellingly, the organizations of these divisions had been largely pulverized, the divisional commanders had difficulty controlling their formations. Oppositely, the Italian divisions were in superb shape, buoyed by their victories in past battles. The Italians rolled onward, southward.
The Italian war machine acting more like a juggernaut than it had any right to, particularly in the south.
In Greece Vercellino had not remained idle. After finally achieving the withdrawal to Amfissa, without losing a single formation despite Soviet superiority, he held his ground and bided his time. The Soviets were forced to disperse their formations to adequately guard against any move he could make. With the continuing chaos and defeat occurring for the Soviets in Illyria, they continued to slowly strip their blocking forces in Greece of divisions. By May 23, only five Soviet formations remained on the line there, albeit with a handful of others still nearby. It was on this day that Vercellino made his first attempt to break out of the dead end he had been forced back into and to again contribute materially to the major operations that were going on. He would use Cei’s mobile corps and slam into the Soviet line at Lamia, where only a single Soviet infantry division held the line. The corps would then wheel westward and, leaving rearguards in major towns, drive toward the eastern Ionian Sea. Vercellino aimed for nothing short of encircling the entire Soviet line in Greece.
More action in Greece!
Battle continued, with slaughter in attendance. Clausewitz, dreadfully impressed by the Napoleonic Wars that had dominated the first half of his life, had written that in war there was no interest in generals who could achieve victories without carnage, for blood was the currency of battle and battle was the sole referent tool of strategy. In abstract, Mussolini was forced to largely agree with this viewpoint. In practice, however, this could be taken to the opposite extreme—and indeed had been during the First World War—and bloodshed had become the currency of strategy and of war and its overriding aim. Between May 15 and May 24, the Italians had lost over eighteen hundred more men, and the Soviets forty-two hundred more. By May 19th another Soviet division, a marine formation, had been encircled and on its way to being destroyed as well. Italian forces entered Albania from the north and Soviet forces were reeling from continuing defeat and disaster. As usual, the Soviet front in the south was broken off from that in the north; the Italians moved into the gap again to exploit this by then turning northward. By May 24th, a Soviet armored division was encircled at Mionica and under assault, though there were major Soviet efforts in progress to rescue it from destruction. It was in the far north, however, that the greatest dangers seemed to lie: large numbers of Soviet formations were finally beginning to turn up from other fronts and from the strategic reserves. Bastico’s army was overstretched and dealing with too many tactical issues at once.
The situation late in the afternoon on May 24th.
The Italians had to wonder how long it would last—the procession of victory, that is. Surely they were approaching their culminating point of victory, particularly given that the Italian order of battle had become snarled all across the front and the armies had been mis-concentrated, with two armies pushing toward Greece and only one, albeit the single most powerful, holding half of the entire front in the north. This was why Mussolini had ordered some formations to exploit the gap and turn northward. It was soon coming time for a drive northward. If, indeed, the Italians were not halted before then.
Part 6: The Indirect Approach V, May 7 – May 24, 1943
In Clausewitz’s opus magnum, On War, one of the major features that distinguishes defense from offense as the superior of the two is the culminating point of victory. This culminating point comes when the attack has petered out, when offensive power has been diluted from requirements for manpower for securing the rear and the losses from casualties and friction. It is the point that the attack has sufficiently weakened that it becomes impossible and in its stead the defense takes over. At the same time, the defender had been forced to fall back onto his rearmost positions, closest to his bases of supply and his sources of reinforcement. At this uneasy point the war is finely balanced; though the defense inherently has the greater advantages, notwithstanding the damage done and industries and resources lost from the prior campaign, the further prosecution of the war rests upon the relative regenerative capabilities of both belligerents.
Beginning in mid-May, the specter of the culminating point of victory progressively grew to haunt Mussolini more and more. The defense was ultimately the stronger form of warfare and this Mussolini knew well. Italy was, however, on the attack. The Soviet defense was slowly strengthening, and from reports filing onto his desk Mussolini could see its growing effects. The changes were subtle, but they were increasing in scope despite continuing Italian victories. Bastico extended army went onto the offensive in the north, trying to keep the Soviets off balance. Two Soviet divisions were trapped and destroyed at Zvornik at the cost of nearly four hundred and seventy Italian lives. Other battles also took place: at Srbobran, at Ljubinje, at Novi Sad and at Foca. All were victories, but the price of victory a climbing ever higher. Over twenty-three hundred Italian lives were claimed in the process of gaining these victories, but so about thirty-five hundred Soviet lives were destroyed as well. In the south, meanwhile, the Soviets were simply shoving more troops into the ever shrinking battle area in an attempt to impose sufficient friction on the Italians to bring them to a halt.
The Italian advance was continuing despite ever increasing Soviet resistance.
Rudo, Dubrovnik, Prijepojie, Herceg-Novi, Ada. The roll of Italian victories continued, as did the inevitable drumbeat of carnage. Nearly three thousand Italians and over four thousand two hundred Soviets gave up the ghost in these battles. With operational surprise gone and tactical density increasing, casualties mounted rapidly. Italian momentum was too great for the Soviets to so easily halt them, but friction and casualties would take their toll eventually. On May 12th, however, a new ally appeared to aid the Italians. Rebels. Illyrian rebels materialized just south of the Hungarian border and immediately declared for Italy. It seemed that the Illyrians preferred Fascism to Communistic paradise. It would take the Soviets numerous divisions and some time to defeat this rebellion, though in the end they would defeat it. In the meantime, however, they served Mussolini well by providing both a minor distraction for the Soviets and useful intelligence for Mussolini. In the south, Soviet divisions were simply being ground down by the Italians. The Soviets had finally even achieved superior numbers in the area: at Herceg-Novi the Soviets had fielded four divisions of three brigades each against two Italian divisions of two brigades. In terms of manpower, these divisions varied, with one nearly full in strength but the other three ranging from ten percent under strength to thirty or even forty percent. However, most tellingly, the organizations of these divisions had been largely pulverized, the divisional commanders had difficulty controlling their formations. Oppositely, the Italian divisions were in superb shape, buoyed by their victories in past battles. The Italians rolled onward, southward.
The Italian war machine acting more like a juggernaut than it had any right to, particularly in the south.
In Greece Vercellino had not remained idle. After finally achieving the withdrawal to Amfissa, without losing a single formation despite Soviet superiority, he held his ground and bided his time. The Soviets were forced to disperse their formations to adequately guard against any move he could make. With the continuing chaos and defeat occurring for the Soviets in Illyria, they continued to slowly strip their blocking forces in Greece of divisions. By May 23, only five Soviet formations remained on the line there, albeit with a handful of others still nearby. It was on this day that Vercellino made his first attempt to break out of the dead end he had been forced back into and to again contribute materially to the major operations that were going on. He would use Cei’s mobile corps and slam into the Soviet line at Lamia, where only a single Soviet infantry division held the line. The corps would then wheel westward and, leaving rearguards in major towns, drive toward the eastern Ionian Sea. Vercellino aimed for nothing short of encircling the entire Soviet line in Greece.
More action in Greece!
Battle continued, with slaughter in attendance. Clausewitz, dreadfully impressed by the Napoleonic Wars that had dominated the first half of his life, had written that in war there was no interest in generals who could achieve victories without carnage, for blood was the currency of battle and battle was the sole referent tool of strategy. In abstract, Mussolini was forced to largely agree with this viewpoint. In practice, however, this could be taken to the opposite extreme—and indeed had been during the First World War—and bloodshed had become the currency of strategy and of war and its overriding aim. Between May 15 and May 24, the Italians had lost over eighteen hundred more men, and the Soviets forty-two hundred more. By May 19th another Soviet division, a marine formation, had been encircled and on its way to being destroyed as well. Italian forces entered Albania from the north and Soviet forces were reeling from continuing defeat and disaster. As usual, the Soviet front in the south was broken off from that in the north; the Italians moved into the gap again to exploit this by then turning northward. By May 24th, a Soviet armored division was encircled at Mionica and under assault, though there were major Soviet efforts in progress to rescue it from destruction. It was in the far north, however, that the greatest dangers seemed to lie: large numbers of Soviet formations were finally beginning to turn up from other fronts and from the strategic reserves. Bastico’s army was overstretched and dealing with too many tactical issues at once.
The situation late in the afternoon on May 24th.
The Italians had to wonder how long it would last—the procession of victory, that is. Surely they were approaching their culminating point of victory, particularly given that the Italian order of battle had become snarled all across the front and the armies had been mis-concentrated, with two armies pushing toward Greece and only one, albeit the single most powerful, holding half of the entire front in the north. This was why Mussolini had ordered some formations to exploit the gap and turn northward. It was soon coming time for a drive northward. If, indeed, the Italians were not halted before then.
There is the question of how many troops the Soviets can use to press their advantage in the north - as well as just how many troops they can not use at the time. Then there is the question of the reserves of the Regio Esercito. New divisions are being trained; maybe some fresh divisions can be deployed to help stem a northern tide.
Vercellino's maneuver looks remarkably sound. He has an opportunity to inflict significant losses to the Red Army and then possibly disrupt considerably the Soviet plans to hold onto Illyria for a second time if their reserves in Greece are not sufficient to reform a line while his encirclement maneuver keeps him busy, or to prevent him from completing said maneuver.
These are at least two of the reasons one can find to remain optimistic.
Vercellino's maneuver looks remarkably sound. He has an opportunity to inflict significant losses to the Red Army and then possibly disrupt considerably the Soviet plans to hold onto Illyria for a second time if their reserves in Greece are not sufficient to reform a line while his encirclement maneuver keeps him busy, or to prevent him from completing said maneuver.
These are at least two of the reasons one can find to remain optimistic.
Indeed. While the Russians are getting stronger in the north, they're remarkably weak in the south and in Greece. They Italians could, especially once their southern army knocks out those five divisions, emerge victorious on the Balkans once again, sacking another dozend or so Russian divisions. But the question is: what is the goal here? The Italians seem able enough to destroy the Russians with superior maneuvers but the Russians seem able to afford these losses.
Those partisans were a real bonus. Distracting a few extra divisions in the north was handy.
That northern front is starting to become a bit of a concern. Do you think you have time to link up with the southern Army in Greek and finalize the southern Balkan area?
Just seems like you are starting to get a bit overstretched here. I guess it’s not a bad thing if your able to maneuver, even with a smaller army. It gives you an opportunity to encircle the soviets.
Fire and maneuver against a superior force. Are you the Italians or the Iraqi insurgence?
Just seems like you are starting to get a bit overstretched here. I guess it’s not a bad thing if your able to maneuver, even with a smaller army. It gives you an opportunity to encircle the soviets.
Fire and maneuver against a superior force. Are you the Italians or the Iraqi insurgence?
The tension builds. I still have to believe that at some point the Germans will finally react.
Does he have the reserves though, has ne been building new divisions, at least in enough numbers to help here? Plus with the increased pressure brought on by Russian reserves/levies, as well as those troops being fresh(er), I'm beginning to worry about the attrition El Duce's forces have been suffering. Sure he's been winning and most of the time always with better attrition then the Russians have, however...
The Russian bear can afford to soak those manpower losses, but can the Italians? Not only absorb his attritional losses but also train new fresh troops to throw at the front lines? He may need to use those fresh troops to create a fire break "line" for his troops to fall back behind to recover, assuming they are available, or perhaps to use them to rotate his tired troops to regain cohesion and time to replace his attritional losses.
As for his efforts in Greece, I agree, however it also requires that he maintain his advance so as to establish a line and I'm not sure he has the forces available here to hold such a LONG line. Really nail biting stuff here, I just hope he doesn't push so hard that he wins the battles, but loses the war. A series Pyrrhic victories here are not what needs to happen. As was once said, one more "Victory" may very well undo him.
I'm very pleased and impressed with his progress and successes, however without anyone else being "Active" (aka Germany) against Russia, it may prove as I've said be to much for his own small but highly effective forces. I suppose we'll see if the two conflicting ideologies of quality vs quantity proves which is the superior concept. However, if he's managed to pull enough Russian might away from the front facing Germany, and hasn't just caused Russia to train their own new forces to throw at him, perhaps they will finally "break the dam" which would be wonderful as I'm sure it would throw Russia into total chaos!
Just all kinds of "Spidey" tingling and "danger Will Robinson" warnings are going off in my head. Would be great if it's proven wrong!
Shadow
Very Interesting, It appears as though the russians are using defence in depth with your own lands. I'm not entirely sure what strategic gains could be gained from this. I do worry that in your current position your making yourself susceptable to the same kind of attack you used on the russians =D
Very good read though, My full support for el duce.
Very good read though, My full support for el duce.
I have a feeling that he will make use of his naval advantage and land his reserves somewhere behind enemy lines, perhaps Bulgaria. This will further confuse Soviet response, and threated to encircle an entire army group.
Oh, for a Corps or even a Division of LARM-AC to amphib land in Albania. It might take them a day or two to get across the mountains, but what excellent havoc they could cry. The corpo Celere is wasted breaking out of Athens; would have been better withdrawn and using the leg infantry for that job (if they're not too beat up), with the CAV and MOT operating in the wide open spaces of Illyria. It's a shame to see such lovely breaches in the line go to waste.
Are you going to eventually attempt to pin the stronger northern forces along neutral Hungary's border then attack them piece-meal?
Lordban: Indeed, optimism is a pretty good thing.
Baltasar: There's manpower, and then there's manpower they can afford to send down into Illyria. With an army of maybe 1500+ German brigades on the Eastern Front, I would assume that stripping that front of too many troops would be a bad thing. Whether or not I can impose enough damage onto the Red Army to threaten this is another matter.
Jemisi: Yeah, plus the intelligence I got. Then they went and invaded Hungary so I lost their services.
Jonny5tyle: I'm the classic weaker force.
Forster: Hehe, that may be a long wait.
SFCShadow: I can definitely afford these casualties. My manpower cushion is at over 800 despite my army expansion program. Given that the Soviet Union has a massive commitment to countering Germany's armies, it may even be arguable to say that I can afford these casualties more than the Soviet Union can. Maybe.
Zanziabar: Thanks! And if only the AI were that clever.
gadajs: Hmm, that's an interesting hypothesis.
womble: Hehe, that's somewhat true, to be fair.
Ciryandor: My basic plan involves swinging northward, yeah.
Baltasar: There's manpower, and then there's manpower they can afford to send down into Illyria. With an army of maybe 1500+ German brigades on the Eastern Front, I would assume that stripping that front of too many troops would be a bad thing. Whether or not I can impose enough damage onto the Red Army to threaten this is another matter.
Jemisi: Yeah, plus the intelligence I got. Then they went and invaded Hungary so I lost their services.
Jonny5tyle: I'm the classic weaker force.
Forster: Hehe, that may be a long wait.
SFCShadow: I can definitely afford these casualties. My manpower cushion is at over 800 despite my army expansion program. Given that the Soviet Union has a massive commitment to countering Germany's armies, it may even be arguable to say that I can afford these casualties more than the Soviet Union can. Maybe.
Zanziabar: Thanks! And if only the AI were that clever.
gadajs: Hmm, that's an interesting hypothesis.
womble: Hehe, that's somewhat true, to be fair.
Ciryandor: My basic plan involves swinging northward, yeah.
Have you ever played Rommel in the Desert, by the way? The increased friction nearer to the enemy base can really be felt there. And is your supply situation still okay? What of the soviet supply situation? Is there any value in bombing logistics in Dacia?
Also, you are now the more enterprising of the two, just as you are 'supposed' to be, being the smaller army.
Also, you are now the more enterprising of the two, just as you are 'supposed' to be, being the smaller army.