Expeditionary/Volunteer forces!
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Okay, so I went to my friendly neighborhood University Library to check out books about Japanese wartime logistics.
I found data for the two main reasons why Japan wouldn't intervene in Spain.
1) Politics...
In 1936, Japan was scared of the Soviets primarily.
Japan had adopted, in 1936, the Ishiwara plan for China. (See this book page 42) Essentially, they were scared as all hell because the Soviets had 14 divisions on Manchuria's borders and they had 3. That was actually one of the tragedies of the Sino Japanese War. When it started in 1937, Japan had actually started to move away from their aggressive stance in North China in preparation for having a secure rear in order to face the Soviets. (See this page Appendix 1 page v)
When the Marco Polo Bridge incident started, the Japanese army only had between 24 and 30 regular divisions. (this source says 24 while this one puts it at 30 page 89)
In March of 1936, the Japanese have somewhere around 20-24 divisions. The Soviets, as mentioned before, can mess up Manchuria in a hot second. Japan is not going to send 4 divisions halfway around the world to fight for fascism (an ideology the Japanese don't actually care about) in Spain. The Soviets and the Chinese are far more pressing threats that are far closer and the Soviets especially worry Japan.
If Japan intervenes in the Spanish Civil War, the Soviets would have a reason and an opportunity to attack Manchuria.
But that's politics... if a player wants to lock down 4 much needed divisions in Spain, that's their messup... So whatever. But now we get to the second thing... Shipping
2) Japan did not have the shipping capacity to support 4 divisions without messing up every other objective.
Now, I went and looked up what Japan had in terms of indigenous shipping capacity in 1936. (Go to this page 26)
During that time, Japan had a total of 4.2 million tons of shipping. However, only 967,000 tons were "motorships," modern steel hulled ships that can make a long distance ocean journey which would be the requirement for Spain. Japan actually was gifted in that it had a high proportion of "modern" cargo and tanker ships in the late 30's.
So how many ships would be needed to ship over and then supply 4 divisions?
Alvin Coox in The Anatomy of a Small War on page 52 says it took the Japanese 90,000 - 120,000 tons of shipping to move a division. So sending 4 puts that that at 360,000 to 480,000 tons. (That's actually being super conservative because the real Japanese army requisitioned 710,000 tons of shipping for the invasion of Malaya in 1942 and that was only 70,000 troops) Divide that by 10,000 to get the amount of dedicated transports that would require. Or if they wanted to use civilian ships, it would be more ships.
A Japanese steel hulled ship would take either 27 days via the Suez or 37 days via the Cape of Good Hope to make it to Seville from Tokyo travelling at a constant speed of 15 knots with no stops. (See this site) Realistically, add another week to both of those totals to account for reprovisioning stops and refueling. There is also no guarantee that the ships won't be stopped and searched by Spanish Republican, British or French forces on the way. They are Japanese, they can't just put on Spanish uniforms as the Germans and Italians did.
Hopefully, the port of Seville is still in friendly hands a month and a half after these divisions set sail.
Once it's in Spain, they have to be supplied. A Japanese division needs 549 tons of shipping per week to maintain itself in a quiet area... 30% more if they're in combat. However, since they are getting some Spanish supply that cancels out the combat consumption so leave it at 549. 4 divisions x 549 is 2196 tons of shipping per week. Which isn't bad, except the journey takes 4-5 weeks to make one way so 8-10 round trip. That means that it effectively ties down 2196 x (8-10) or 17,000 - 22,000 tons of shipping on an ongoing basis.
The Japanese army and Navy are already using a lot of shipping anyway to maintain the existing forces in China and across the Pacific, but they can get away with requisitioning the smaller, older, and slower boats for that. Spain would require a great deal of Japan's fastest and most advanced cargo ships and take them away from civilian trade.
The Japanese civilian economy needed about 5 million tons of civilian shipping to function in 1936. It only has 4.2 million tons as mentioned before, but 46% of the trade is carried on foreign hulls. The economy is also dependent on shipments of timber, oil, and assorted other raw materials from British and French possessions in Asia.
If France and Britain get upset with Japanese meddling in Europe, they can cut Japan off from both ships and raw materials that the Japanese economy needs.
The military would never risk it. They were focused on the Soviet Union and securing their gains in China. Intervening in Spain is all downsides and expensive shipping costs with no upside besides a marginally friendly power in Europe who Japan doesn't care about.
I found data for the two main reasons why Japan wouldn't intervene in Spain.
1) Politics...
In 1936, Japan was scared of the Soviets primarily.
Japan had adopted, in 1936, the Ishiwara plan for China. (See this book page 42) Essentially, they were scared as all hell because the Soviets had 14 divisions on Manchuria's borders and they had 3. That was actually one of the tragedies of the Sino Japanese War. When it started in 1937, Japan had actually started to move away from their aggressive stance in North China in preparation for having a secure rear in order to face the Soviets. (See this page Appendix 1 page v)
When the Marco Polo Bridge incident started, the Japanese army only had between 24 and 30 regular divisions. (this source says 24 while this one puts it at 30 page 89)
In March of 1936, the Japanese have somewhere around 20-24 divisions. The Soviets, as mentioned before, can mess up Manchuria in a hot second. Japan is not going to send 4 divisions halfway around the world to fight for fascism (an ideology the Japanese don't actually care about) in Spain. The Soviets and the Chinese are far more pressing threats that are far closer and the Soviets especially worry Japan.
If Japan intervenes in the Spanish Civil War, the Soviets would have a reason and an opportunity to attack Manchuria.
But that's politics... if a player wants to lock down 4 much needed divisions in Spain, that's their messup... So whatever. But now we get to the second thing... Shipping
2) Japan did not have the shipping capacity to support 4 divisions without messing up every other objective.
Now, I went and looked up what Japan had in terms of indigenous shipping capacity in 1936. (Go to this page 26)
During that time, Japan had a total of 4.2 million tons of shipping. However, only 967,000 tons were "motorships," modern steel hulled ships that can make a long distance ocean journey which would be the requirement for Spain. Japan actually was gifted in that it had a high proportion of "modern" cargo and tanker ships in the late 30's.
So how many ships would be needed to ship over and then supply 4 divisions?
Alvin Coox in The Anatomy of a Small War on page 52 says it took the Japanese 90,000 - 120,000 tons of shipping to move a division. So sending 4 puts that that at 360,000 to 480,000 tons. (That's actually being super conservative because the real Japanese army requisitioned 710,000 tons of shipping for the invasion of Malaya in 1942 and that was only 70,000 troops) Divide that by 10,000 to get the amount of dedicated transports that would require. Or if they wanted to use civilian ships, it would be more ships.
A Japanese steel hulled ship would take either 27 days via the Suez or 37 days via the Cape of Good Hope to make it to Seville from Tokyo travelling at a constant speed of 15 knots with no stops. (See this site) Realistically, add another week to both of those totals to account for reprovisioning stops and refueling. There is also no guarantee that the ships won't be stopped and searched by Spanish Republican, British or French forces on the way. They are Japanese, they can't just put on Spanish uniforms as the Germans and Italians did.
Hopefully, the port of Seville is still in friendly hands a month and a half after these divisions set sail.
Once it's in Spain, they have to be supplied. A Japanese division needs 549 tons of shipping per week to maintain itself in a quiet area... 30% more if they're in combat. However, since they are getting some Spanish supply that cancels out the combat consumption so leave it at 549. 4 divisions x 549 is 2196 tons of shipping per week. Which isn't bad, except the journey takes 4-5 weeks to make one way so 8-10 round trip. That means that it effectively ties down 2196 x (8-10) or 17,000 - 22,000 tons of shipping on an ongoing basis.
The Japanese army and Navy are already using a lot of shipping anyway to maintain the existing forces in China and across the Pacific, but they can get away with requisitioning the smaller, older, and slower boats for that. Spain would require a great deal of Japan's fastest and most advanced cargo ships and take them away from civilian trade.
The Japanese civilian economy needed about 5 million tons of civilian shipping to function in 1936. It only has 4.2 million tons as mentioned before, but 46% of the trade is carried on foreign hulls. The economy is also dependent on shipments of timber, oil, and assorted other raw materials from British and French possessions in Asia.
If France and Britain get upset with Japanese meddling in Europe, they can cut Japan off from both ships and raw materials that the Japanese economy needs.
The military would never risk it. They were focused on the Soviet Union and securing their gains in China. Intervening in Spain is all downsides and expensive shipping costs with no upside besides a marginally friendly power in Europe who Japan doesn't care about.
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well, that's one way to spend a Saturday afternoon.. ) tell me - for those who simply don't want the Japanese in Spain, either because they've been swayed by your research or simply because they considered it lunatic at first glance, is this the kind of thing which can be easily modded away, or not?
I don't think so... I feel like the devs just made this "cool mechanic," which it is... but they forgot to include any sort of logistics constraint in it.
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You mean you found 2 reasons why Japan didn't intervene in real life.
Your post is well thought out, and probably uses real numbers, the game doesn't.
For example 1 IRL Japanese divsion is not the same as 1 Hoi4 Japanese division. A division can be anything from a few brigades to 25 brigades in HOI4. We all agree that the maximum forces you are able to send should be based on the number of brigades and not number of divisions. This is a balance issue.
You also assume that the HOI4 AI/Player won't build more merchant shipping then Japan did IRL.
Same goes for the objectives of the nation. IRL Japan was preoccupied in China and Manchuria for an European intervention to happen. In HOI4 the Player/AI can have different objectives in mind.
I think you overestimate the will of France and UK. They were really not in a position to stop even Italy from doing their stuff(SCW, Ethiopia), I don't think they would mess around with Japan.
Soviet Union could attack Manchuria, but don't forget that the Red army was in terrible state at this timeframe(Winter war?). The victory at Khalkin gol was against an attacking Japanese force, which was half the size of the Russian/Mongolian force, and they didn't have heavy weapons, yet the Russians still lost more men and equipment. The Soviets knew their weakness, and that's why they went for a status quo and NAP after the one battle. I don't think they would risk an all out war because of the SCW.
Also the international repercussion part is more or less modeled with the world tension in the game.
In the end I stand by my point: It should be possible to intervene with a few divisions, but it should come at a great price for Japan. The numbers need balancing though.
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How true. I'm sorry to learn it might not be possible to make it the nice balanced number of zero.
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I respect your dedication in investigating this, however:
1) The Soviet situation is a double-edged sword, since they also were involved in Spain.
2) It's still logistically possible.
3) The Japanese military were hardly risk averse, now, were they?
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Italy didn't had essential trade with them. That, plus superiority complex: UK and France would rapidly intervene.
Winter war has nothing to do with Manchuria. The mongolian plains would suit mechanized warfare perfectly. And Japan doesn't have time to equip themselves against tanks. Regarding full war: not needed. A little push to remind them that they were vulnerable would suffice.
Regarding supplies... It should be possible, but China's supplies should pay the (high) price.
They weren't that dumb, though. Plus, the military was obsessed with China. Anything potentially harmful for a China invasion would met heavy resistance from the military.
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People defending Japanese "volunteers" (entire divisions, if you can even call them volunteers...) in Spain, do it just out of an old habit I would assume: Support whatever Paradox show us, no matter if it is total nonsense like Japan volunteers in Spain.
Porkman explained it very well, but it really shouldn't be necessary to be explained at all. Why would Japan send forces to Spain? It is just so stupid that I hope it won't happen in a game when it is released and it is just a bug in the beta.
EDIT: With "historical" mode I have to add. If playing a "non-historical" mode I really don't care if Japan is sending troops to Spain.
Porkman explained it very well, but it really shouldn't be necessary to be explained at all. Why would Japan send forces to Spain? It is just so stupid that I hope it won't happen in a game when it is released and it is just a bug in the beta.
EDIT: With "historical" mode I have to add. If playing a "non-historical" mode I really don't care if Japan is sending troops to Spain.
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I don't get your point. You say that the UK and France would intervene versus Japan, because they were trading with them? This is modelled in the game with world tension increase.
Again you assume that in the game Japan would have the low number of AT weapons that they had IRL.
Same point as before. In the game You are the miliatry. You can be obsessed with China, or You can be obsessed with Europe.
If you want to argue, then make points like all of us. Saying things like "it's silly" or "anyone who likes the feature are fanboys" is not a good arguement.
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I say that they would threaten Japan to cut the supplies they needed. And I think this is not simulated in the game, pitifully.
Again, you assume that you can affect significantly your army in the 6 months (aprox) that you have from the start of the game to the beginning of the SCW.
Fair enough.
I think japan paid good money for those supplies. You know the saying "money talks". I also think it is simulated in the game, I assume you get negaitve trade relations if you cause too much world tension.
Good point, but the same goes for any other nation. UK and France can definitely not get ready for a war versus Japan in 6 months, and USSR had plenty of internal problems in 36. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Purge. This is why I think they couldn't risk a major war.
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Money is always a good argument
. But the same can be said about public opinion in democracies. And I doubt public opinion both in UK and France would see with good eyes an intervention from Japan, who was an international pariah, and was not considered a thread.-speculation ON-
And I can't talk about France, but UK was (or they thought so) ready for naval incidents on the Pacific.
-speculation OFF-
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Yep, and this is why they should get a penalty with democracies to trade influence if they(or anyone for that matter) cause world tension. I think this is simulated in the game or if not it should be.
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I don't want to put words in @Zaku 's mouth, but I think we all agree that Japanese volunteers in Spain is a bit odd. It's just that "a bit odd" or even "highly unlikely" is not enough for me to say "this should be impossible". I need a solid reason to think the game should include limitations that make this impossible. Just saying "agree with me or you're a fanboi" doesn't cut it.
My response to this is simple: Pearl Harbour. If they were dumb enough to get into a war with the US that by any reasonable standard they were going to lose, then intervening in the SCW is hardly beyond them.
It's the same with Hitler trying to pull off Sealion - some people say he was too smart to try, but then this is the same guy who decided to invade the USSR without preparing for a winter campaign.
Saying "doing X is dumb" is not a reason to make it impossible for them to try if there are superficially valid reasons why they might have tried to do it.
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Yes I agree
Before we get deeper in this topic, my main points are still:
1. It was logistically possible, so if I play with Japan I should be able to do it.
2. The AI should only do it occassionally, not in every game.
3. It should be expensive, just like any other military expedition.
4. There should be a large world tension/relations penalty if you intervene in a civil war. This should be the case with every nation and to any civil war, not just for the SCW-Japan pair.
5. The number of troops you are able to send needs balancing.
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I'd go a step further on 2 - the AI should only do it really, really, really rarely. No worries if a player wants to go bat-shit crazy, that's up to them, but when the AI does it, it kind of messes with the game balance (not least because if AI Japan is intervening in Spain, then we're likely to see a lot of other odd AI behaviour from other nations). I like the rest of your points
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Not only that, but the AI should consider it while deciding to send volunteers. And it clearly didn't (or the malus wasn't strong enough).
Glad we are converging, btw.
While I totally agree with you that the "support Paradox whatever" is very real, I have to say, if you watch the history of my comments you will see that I'm extremely critic of Paradox decisions for HoI4, and yet here I am defending that Japan should be able to send volunteers to Japan, with the right amount of backlash and penalties of course.
As for entire divisions? To simplify the thing I would say that if the game mechanics for a semi-historical Japan allowed them to send 1 division it should be ok, and a heavily ahistorical Japan should be allowed to send even more. Think of a scenario where Japan instead of going after the US, goes only after the allies along with Germany, to get that much needed fuel the Japanese Empire must reach Iran & Iraq, to make this happen it would become crucial to control the Mediterranean, sending forces to support the fascists in Spain is the "only way" to control Gibraltar.
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Well, now I'm getting worried. It happened again.
Check out Japan on 36:23:
http://www.twitch.tv/paradoxinteractive/v/30241329
Check out Japan on 36:23:
http://www.twitch.tv/paradoxinteractive/v/30241329
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