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Ok. First off, if France or the UK intervenes, internal US problems would have been less. In fact, it would have the opposite effect, at least when it comes to Irish (and German?) immigrants, it would increase their support for the war.

Second, a lot of you are assuming that the UK would attack the North head on. Its not inconceiveable that they would first land troops in a harbor in the South (which would be possible if the Union didn't take all the large ports), and then from there move troops to the front.
 

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If you read any book about the Civil War, recognition by the European powers meant war's over. There shouldn't be any dispute on that, unless you have absolutely no knowledge of the political condition at that time. The U.S. couldn't survive fighting in the South and in the North (if the British attacked from Canada). Also, at that time, navies were put into much higher regard than they are now. The U.S. navy (which consisted of about 10 coastal ships in 1861) was no match for the navies of Europe. European weapons were the of the highest quality. The union Lincoln barely managed to keep together during the war would have been obliterated. There would have been no chance of victory for the U.S. if Europe got involved.
 

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Massive European invovlement would mean their other places are open, though. If Britain's forces are in the USA, nothing is holding back China from cancelling its deals and taking things back. In 1870 the Franco-Prussian war started, Prussia could easily take advantage of it earlier if France has its forces away from home. Not to mention natives / Non-European countries, like China that wouldn't mind cancelling some of their treaties with Britain, now that Britain is away.
 

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Alternate Outcome

So lets say that the Union didnt give up after the Europeans recognized the CSA.
The Union has continued the campaign just as before and maybe the people at home are even more determined to crush the south now that they run the risk of war with a European country.

Simply sending supplies to the south has brought some good results like more Union combat loses but it hasnt really changed the tide of the war (the south is loosing right now)

Britain realises that if it is to really help its new friend it needs to send troops. They cant really take them out of Canada or they run the risk of having Canada being invaded. So they send a small force (less than 20000 infantry and few cavalry but everyone has new breechloading rifles)

France says its not so sure about fighting on the same side as Britain and it has a good relationship with the Union so its not going to send troops but it will continue sending supplies under the British flag(or by sending them to britain and having them deal with it)

Spain and Mexico are willing to send troops and supplies. A total of 50000 infantry and quite a few cavalry. Many with breechloaders)

The british hatch a plan to make incursions into the Union from the north to pull troops from the south. This allows their force to make an attack with General Lee. When the Union troops enounter Red Coats they are unsure what to do. They loose the first battle due to hesitation. A week later a Union army encounter the combined SpanishMexican force on the Tennessee/Kentucky border. Once again they are unsure what to do but they stand up and fight. Still they loose but without too many loses.

That weekend, these battles are in every newspaper and envoys have already been sent to the respective countries demanding they pull their troops out.

Some people are calling this a revenge attack by the Britsh and Mexicans. Others say its another war of Independence.

Within a couple of months another 100000 more European troops have been sent to America and Union troops are getting used to seeing European troops. The Union has suffered in the naval front and in many places the blockade of the south has been completly destroyed. From Maine to Long Island the British have nearly cut off access to the sea with a strong blockade with Ironclads and dozens more being built back in England.

The incursions from Canada have become a real problem for Lincoln, many towns in New England have had to be evacuated and essentially given to the British.

Back in England, people dont seem to mind the war, they're not too happy about slavery but are more than happy at getting back the Americans. Plus a strong propaganda campaign has limited dissent (think of Wilsons Red Scare) The commisioning of many new ships and the order for thousands of the new breech loading rifle has made jobs and helped the economy.

---I say within 2 years, the moral or the Union troops would have collapsed and the war would have been the souths.

Britain would get parts of Maine and would have gotten favorable trade agreements with the Union. They also would hang in with the south. After a few years the political pressure from England would have helped ban slavery and accept blacks as legitimate people and eventually citizens.

Mexico would have taken much of the south west and parts of southern texas back (in a deal which the CSA that paid their debt)

The Union would still survive even without the south or Maine and the unfavorable trade agreements. Lincoln would loose the election in 1868 and never again would republicans take back the White House. After about 10 years, relations with the USA and the CSA would normalise and each would have unlimited access to each others markets.

When WWI breaks out, and England and France need help, some anti-interventionists dig up some evidence that France had supplied the CSA(renamed the Union of Independent States - UIS) with weapons and supplies. The US refuses to enter the war. The UIS sends about 500000 troops to France then another 250000 a less than a year later.

A little fancifull at the end but the begining I think is definetly possible.
 

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Very good ideas there Mike, although th part where the republicans NEVER get elected is a little farfecthed, i figure eventually they would be reelected...
ya know what i mean?--eventually people would forget.
 

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Originally posted by swampthing
I believe if a number of European countries publically recognized the Confederacy, the North would have begun to loose support at home.
while this is possible, if it was only the British supporting the CSA i dont think americans at home would care too much..
I figure they would think something along the lines of the Brish just want to get back at us.
Something along those lines i think
 

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There is one flaw with the theory on British intervention and that is Slavery. Only one person ever stood up in the House of Commons in support of the South and he was shouted done because they fought for Slavery. Palmerston may have had sympathy witht he gentlemen of the South rather than the rather common lot you got up on the North but he was also a shrewd reader of British public opinion. At the South's high water mark when Lee was invading the Marlyland and Bragg and Kirby Smith were deep in Kentucky, Palmerston was so concerned he stayed on his estate and kept shooting defensive wild animals. If Palmerston had seriously considered recognising the South at that point he would of at least made plans to recall parliament. As it was he did nothing.
 

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Originally posted by swampthing
France says its not so sure about fighting on the same side as Britain and it has a good relationship with the Union so its not going to send troops but it will continue sending supplies under the British flag(or by sending them to britain and having them deal with it)

Spain and Mexico are willing to send troops and supplies. A total of 50000 infantry and quite a few cavalry. Many with breechloaders)
France was actually more inclined to fight in the war than Britain was. However, it was not willing to enter the war without Britain doing likewise.

Mexico under Maximilian needed French troops to fight the republican opposition and would not have been able to contribute troops itself.

Spain would have been unlikely to fight in any event and certainly not without France also in the war.
 

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Originally posted by Dark Knight
France was actually more inclined to fight in the war than Britain was. However, it was not willing to enter the war without Britain doing likewise.

Mexico under Maximilian needed French troops to fight the republican opposition and would not have been able to contribute troops itself.

Spain would have been unlikely to fight in any event and certainly not without France also in the war.

So it would be necessary for much of Europe to agree to join the war on the Confederates side. It would need a bit more political cooperation than typical of the time but:
If France said it wanted to help the confederates, but they need the British, they could tell the British that after helping the CSA they would demand an end to slavery. This may appease the parliment but also the idea of taking parts of Maine and other northern area might help convince the rest of the parliment. Then with France and Britain commited, Spain might be willing to participate.
 

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I think youre forgettig countries.
Oke you have named the most important. but there are more countries. They are little, but they can help.
Portugal, maybe a little and weak country but is pro-slavery and can send troops.
The Netherlands, excactly the same as Portugal.
 

unmerged(9895)

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Originally posted by Drang-NL
I think youre forgettig countries.
Oke you have named the most important. but there are more countries. They are little, but they can help.
Portugal, maybe a little and weak country but is pro-slavery and can send troops.
The Netherlands, excactly the same as Portugal.

very insignificant. these nations would not of made a difference unless joined by one of the bigger powers (UK or France). Portugal is smaller than most american states. unless it was willing to risk everything to save a small portion of its trade market, joining the war would of been nothing but a bad move. and besides, i think that portugal was heavily under spanish influence still at the time, so unless spain was willing to join it doesnt seem likely the portugese would of had much reason to.
 

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Ideally, after Britain and France agreed to join, other countries (Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Mexico, hell all of Europe) would form some sort of alliance/agreement. While I dont see this happening(this IIRC didnt really start happening until closer to WWI) it would definetly help the south. Even if only 3 small countries could send aid it would be helpful.

But lets say only Britain and France join, and to add to the mess, the Netherlands and Spain declare war on Britain/France. This would severely limit the amount of troops that could be sent to America. But, it may be possible to simply continue the war in the america without any clear victor (trench warfare was used a bit in the war so lets say it became widely used). Then France can concentrate on Spain and Britain on the Netherlands. Lets be realistic, does the Netherlands really have a hope against the British.

So after a year and a half of war with Spain/Netherlands, troops can finally be sent to america in real numbers. Problem is now, some of the souths moral is down and the Union is entrenched. But the British navy has come out even stronger than it was a couple years ago. The additional 15 ironclads ordered 2 years ago have been completed(lets say the country is in overdrive) and a couple even saw useage late in the war against the Netherlands.

With these new ships, they are nearly able to eliminate the Union navy and most important ports have strong blockades. Given the nature of this non-attritional trench warfare, nothing is moving quickly. So the blockades have time to sink in and the Union army is stating to see its supplies dwindle. While the railroads have helped, things just arent moving.

France had some significant losses against Spain but a number of able generals made themselves be known and are willing to command a couple whole armies in the south.

The British public, after the defeat of the Netherlands, have really gotten into this war and the lines at the conscription centers are huge. This means an even more grand plan of attack from the north is hatch that involves the taking of norhern New England and the sacking of Boston. Let alone the normal bombardment of harbors all up and down the east coast.

After a year of blockade, the loss of much of New England and the burning of Boston, the moral of the Union has nearly collapsed. Except for Lincoln and much of the army of the potomac.

Late in 1867, one of Lincolns advisors comes up with a plan of attack against the entrenched EuroSoutherns. The plan is remarkable similar to what will occur in 50 years, attritional warfare.

Very soon both the European and Union ranks are severley depleted. Both sides agree to start ceasefire talks. While much of the North part of the Union is in British hands, so few defenders are left in the south that if the Union could manage to mount an attack, they might be able to break through. Fear of loosing the very point of this war makes the British and French agree to the Unions terms. The union gets its northern part back and the border of the CSA will be Missouri, Kentucky, and Virginia, not Ohio, West Virginia, and Maryland as the EuroSoutherns had taken.

It is agreed, and hostilities end. the CSA had 750000-1.2mil combat losses, the USA - 700000-1.4mil combat losses, Britian - 195000-300000 combat losses, France - 290000-320000 combat losses, Spain - 200000-250000 combat losses but over a million civilian losses, the Netherland - 25000-40000 combat losses.

I personally do beleive that if the war were to continue past 1865, trench warfare would become widespread.
 
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Tim O

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Originally posted by swampthing
Ideally, after Britain and France agreed to join, other countries (Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Mexico, hell all of Europe) would form some sort of alliance/agreement. While I dont see this happening(this IIRC didnt really start happening until closer to WWI) it would definetly help the south. Even if only 3 small countries could send aid it would be helpful.

But lets say only Britain and France join, and to add to the mess, the Netherlands and Spain declare war on Britain/France. This would severely limit the amount of troops that could be sent to America. But, it may be possible to simply continue the war in the america without any clear victor (trench warfare was used a bit in the war so lets say it became widely used). Then France can concentrate on Spain and Britain on the Netherlands. Lets be realistic, does the Netherlands really have a hope against the British.

So after a year and a half of war with Spain/Netherlands, troops can finally be sent to america in real numbers. Problem is now, some of the souths moral is down and the Union is entrenched. But the British navy has come out even stronger than it was a couple years ago. The additional 15 ironclads ordered 2 years ago have been completed(lets say the country is in overdrive) and a couple even saw useage late in the war against the Netherlands.

With these new ships, they are nearly able to eliminate the Union navy and most important ports have strong blockades. Given the nature of this non-attritional trench warfare, nothing is moving quickly. So the blockades have time to sink in and the Union army is stating to see its supplies dwindle. While the railroads have helped, things just arent moving.

France had some significant losses against Spain but a number of able generals made themselves be known and are willing to command a couple whole armies in the south.

The British public, after the defeat of the Netherlands, have really gotten into this war and the lines at the conscription centers are huge. This means an even more grand plan of attack from the north is hatch that involves the taking of norhern New England and the sacking of Boston. Let alone the normal bombardment of harbors all up and down the east coast.

After a year of blockade, the loss of much of New England and the burning of Boston, the moral of the Union has nearly collapsed. Except for Lincoln and much of the army of the potomac.

Late in 1867, one of Lincolns advisors comes up with a plan of attack against the entrenched EuroSoutherns. The plan is remarkable similar to what will occur in 50 years, attritional warfare.

Very soon both the European and Union ranks are severley depleted. Both sides agree to start ceasefire talks. While much of the North part of the Union is in British hands, so few defenders are left in the south that if the Union could manage to mount an attack, they might be able to break through. Fear of loosing the very point of this war makes the British and French agree to the Unions terms. The union gets its northern part back and the border of the CSA will be Missouri, Kentucky, and Virginia, not Ohio, West Virginia, and Maryland as the EuroSoutherns had taken.

It is agreed, and hostilities end. the CSA had 750000-1.2mil combat losses, the USA - 700000-1.4mil combat losses, Britian - 195000-300000 combat losses, France - 290000-320000 combat losses, Spain - 200000-250000 combat losses but over a million civilian losses, the Netherland - 25000-40000 combat losses.

I personally do beleive that if the war were to continue past 1865, trench warfare would become widespread.

First of all the south had 800,000 men enlisted in it's armed forces, 90% of the abled body white men of military age. So casulties on the scale you are putting forward are absurd. Also if your fantasy of European intervention by Britain and France were to come to pass, you must reckon with intervention by the very pro-union Russians whom we were extremly friendly with at the time.
 

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I am willing to bet many of the things here have been stated in two books i plan to read:
What If? &
What If? II

I will go look for the passage about the civil war and decide if i really want t type out all of that...
 

unmerged(15682)

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unfortunately, the ideas in the book (after rough skimming) dont seem to very close to the topic here, so i wont mention then

PS~It was also like 7 pages long so no way was i gonna type it out.
 

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IIRC the Netherlands still had slavery during the ACW so I think that if they had intervened (not that it would have changed a awful lot) they would have joined the Confeds but only if the major powers had done the same.