Ah i didn't know that France, Prussia could spawn anywhere, that does make things alot more unpredictable, and those provinces in france are costly point wise, i have noticed this, the ai smells weakness, if you take less then 5 provinces, you're going to need some goodluck, if you're starting in france, want to perhaps take atleast 10 provinces maybe given your starting area. ai really does smell weakness. Da9L has won the lottery to some extent, can potentially get away with 5 provinces and putting the rest into buffs, although still tempting fate given what you said about random ai spawning. My biggest worry has Da9L would be a grand naval coaltion forming against him mid/end game, hence having strong naval focus, just so he can fight all of europe at sea.
For you, i'd probably try to button up a bit against johan , maybe a little buffer, but with a focus with starting with normandy and paris areas for wealth, although you "may" be able to game/weaken the ai spawning points a bit, if you choose your provinces in a fashion that it leaves little pockets that can be taken easily if you catch my drift? so little enclaves, divide and conquer? idk, could backfire, so don't curse my name if things go wrong
You forget that developtment of provinces will also be randomised, though. Paris could be a 1-1-1 province.
EDIT: Also, I believe they have to complete all provinces in a state before taking a province from another state.
