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noobermenschen

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Wow, so the Ethiopian campaign is even harder now. I think I'll wait a while before pulling all my hair out. I need time to regrow.
I'll try it again soon, have a dinner/shopping date with my Bride today and possibly some honeydo's this weekend. I think it's possible to win on normal, just have to figure out how.
 

Lord of Beer

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The event that comes up on army mutinies - is that Ethiopia specific, or for all nations? None of the selections had tooltips explaining what was going on, or what the effects of my choice would be. I was left very confused and unimpressed as a player.

Aside from that, the AI is much better, there are no more suicide attacks as Italy. I think that we can safely say that the AI is now good enough to beat even the best human Ethiopia. Well done HOI4 Devs!
 

pdstanbridge

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The AI is heaps better. Flipping lost 135,000 men to a massive AI encirclement. First time that's ever happened to me. The mutinies appear to effect every nation - I've just had them as Manchuko. I think it might be something to do with lack of stability/war support or something along those lines.
 

noobermenschen

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I think that we can safely say that the AI is now good enough to beat even the best human Ethiopia. Well done HOI4 Devs!
Challenge accepted. :mad: I'm going to try again on Normal difficulty but may switch to recruit if that doesn't work.

The mutiny event affects everyone, but I'm not sure what the trigger is as I had so many:
- My stability started at 35%, and was at 40% when the Mutiny event popped up. And by the Laws of Paradox, Nation/Realm stability is paramount!
- All my divisions except my two elite units were understrength, but there really were only a few months where I had enough equipment for everyone so am not sure if that was a factor.
- My casualty list (about 65k) had just topped the total of my fielded manpower. I suspect Stability was the big factor but that was an interesting coincidence.

The AI is heaps better. Flipping lost 135,000 men to a massive AI encirclement. First time that's ever happened to me. The mutinies appear to effect every nation - I've just had them as Manchuko. I think it might be something to do with lack of stability/war support or something along those lines.
The Italian AI did seem to do a much better job of keeping units up to strength... usually. At one point their mountain division was a green unit at 20% strength but that appeared to be the exception.

A bigger factor I think is that mechanics were adjusted so foolish AI behavior is not so suicidal: In addition to casualties and equipment losses being less lopsided, the Italian General (Messe) picked up some incredible buffs when attacking, towards the end he was skill 5 but with a 35% attacking bonus. My general was also skill 5 but his attacking bonus was only 15% as he had always been defending. His defensive bonus was at least 25% and [EDIT: His defensive bonus was in fact 25%, same as his skill level], like other mechanics (Army Experience for one) may be driven by total combat width in action or the production value of equipment losses in battle.

[EDIT] I doublechecked the last save file, and those "Italian reinforcements" included at least four German Volunteer 9/3 Infantry divisions. I wondered why enemy soft attack and breakthrough had suddenly increased so much...:mad:
 
Last edited:

noobermenschen

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Bah! :mad:

Second try, lasted until August 1936 as the enemy Mountain division swung east to beat down my milishy divisions instead of staying near Addis Ababa and beating itself to death against my strongest units. Once I'm down to three provinces the attacks never let up.

Third try I made it to April 1937, pretty much every division was STILL at 80-85% strength, had just put a third factory to work on Basic Rifles. Got my Militia (4 INF) Division soft attack higher than enemy division breakthrough but it still wasn't enough. Lost two provinces but was able to bounce my units between Addis Ababa and Harer for several months but the end result was the same, nobody could reinforce to full strength and everyone's ORG just kept getting relentlessly whittled down. I did handle a Draft Dodgers event (while on Volunteers Only!) which combined with a factory safety program got my stability over 50% right before the collapse.

The increased base ORG may be nearly as big a factor as the increased defensive attrition. The AI is very good (as it is in all games) at mousing units, so the Eye-talian divisions are taking shifts pounding my divisions so some of their divisions gain ORG while none of mine do. Historically accurate (Ethiopia never stood a chance in real life) but still a bit frustrating.
 

noobermenschen

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Yes, I feel your pain ;) I haven't attempted in 1.5.1 and i won't. Not until a few things are balanced out a little perhaps. We will see.
Yeah, I'm going to have to take a break and play another country for a while. :p Fourth try I got draft dodgers six weeks into the campaign and strikes in May 1936 and just said screw it.

I can't stop wondering though if I'd made better decisions in that first try (going with worker safety to improve stability, taking more industrial focuses earlier instead of going for blueprints, running two production lines of rifles instead of going for ART and AA), even with those German volunteers, that I might have survived until World War II kicked off which would have changed the situation to my advantage. So I'll likely try it again, but winning depends a lot on the luck of the draw with events - Even if you have good luck Ethiopia is really on the razor's edge of survival.