Ethiopia - how do I break up this Kilwa-Mamluk alliance

[sad king billy]

I, poor downtrodden Ethiopia, desire to extend my modest property and have set my eye on the tropical lands of Kilwa. However, the malevolent Kilwa has made a frustrating decision in allying the Mamluks. The Mamluks have more than twice my army and I don't think I can fight them both at the same time (Mamluks have 36 professionalism and 40/6/0, Kilwa has 8/6/2 with 21 professionalism. I have 8 professionalism (being constantly at war I haven't had time to train) and 16/6/2).

The Mamluks are more powerful than normal because the Ottomans have not attacked then yet, they don't even share a border (Load-screen spectating shows that the Ottomans have taken a large-ish bite out of Hungary which probably explains Karaman's continued survival). Is there a way to murder get into a friendly spat with Kilwa without also getting the Mamluks involved?

[/S]

 

[Bibor]

Spend your points into developing your gold mines and/or coffee provinces and completing the conquest of the Gulf of Aden important Centers of Trade.
Once the Ottomans attack the Mamluks there's a fair chance you'll be able to ally the Ottomans. But for that you'll need a healthy amount of army and navy size.

Your first priority should be to conquer Egypt and cut off the Ottoman advance anyway. You can always turn south to finish Kilwa off. This has the indirect effect of negating a large portion of trade income to your future biggest rival - the Ottomans, as you will be dominating the Alexandria trade node. Egypt is now richer and more easily developed than Kilwan coastal provinces.

From there, you should look for an opportunity to place your capital either somewhere in Asia (to create TC lands in Africa) or Europe (Cyprus, for example) to be able to create TC lands in both Africa and Asia.

I would personally probably keep my capital in Africa and explore/conquer all of Malaya, possibly becoming a tributary of Ming before I can see Europe and bring down the Ottomans with some help from European powers.

 

[Dominion]

Fiddle your thumbs until Ottos DoW Mamluks and eat provinces for free after Kilwa has left to fight in the north.
If you don't like fiddling your thumbs, expand into India.

It's what I did when I started bordering the Ottoman Empire. They're too massive to take on anyways. Let them have a few Mamlukian provinces, it won't make a difference in the long run.
Coming back to Anatolia with Indian trade money will make a difference though.

Bonus points for controlling Persia as well and cutting off any trade the green menace could get.
I got as far as North Konkan before I felt superior to them.
Endless cash means endless waves of mercs. Swiped the floor with them.

Long story short: That alliance is actually good for you. It'll lure Kilwa's troops away and give you their land for free.

 

[Bouchart]

Take Exploration and you'll open up some new fronts in Indonesia and elsewhere.