Your results showed one ethic moving towards the expected number and one moving away from the expected number. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
In a clean setting with a countable and easily accessible number of factors I have not observed long-term trends
away from the expected distributions. I have noticed
some temporary fluctuations, which is to be expected of a random walk process. What I have
definitely observed is that in more complicated settings, unexpected things start happening - most notably, everything that is weird starts happening once the game reaches a certain pop complexity. Across three games that I paid attention to things, everything worked as expected, if a teensy bit slow, in the first 50-80 years of the game. The
exact variation had more to do with overall pop count that was being affected by the system than time elapsed, however. In the advanced game with materialists, with 3300ish pops, ethics *felt* like a glacier - but, being careful here, the game speed being slower might've also been a factor contributing to that.
I would be happy to contribute actual, rigorous numbers if we agreed on a testing process.
To that end, so far, based on anecdotal evidence (including mine), it appears that:
-The starting pop distribution is semi-random (also confirmed by a dev)
-The ethics shift at the start of the game works, it tends to eliminate ethics minorities on your homeworld within 50-60 years (govt. ethics attraction modifiers help)
-The ethics shift gets wonkier when there are more than 2 empire ethics in play
-The ethics shift gets even wonkier when there are all the factions in play from having conquered another empire's stuff
-The ethics shift seems to slow down with total pop count increasing (needs verification)
The first point, having been confirmed by a dev as intended in another thread, requires no further investigation.
I looked into ethics shift on the empire capital to check whether pops were actually shifting ethics, not simply ethics being adjusted due to population growth, in one of my previous posts, anyone else is welcome to do the same. Start a galaxy where you won't have outside interference, observe your capital's ethics for the first 50-80 years, just let time pass.
To further troubleshoot this I would
love to see not only the expected ethics distribution within the empire, but
also THE EXPECTED YEARLY CHANGE. This is critical information that is currently
MISSING from the game UI entirely. Now, we can of course still measure the actual yearly change, in absolute numbers and in percentages.
This would require a test with a fixed population, so ideally an empire where population controls have been enacted to stop any pop growth. Furthermore, I propose to compare the results of such a test for empires with 50 pops, 100 pops, 250 pops, and 500 pops. (Higher numbers also welcome, but tedious to execute, so). In addition, it would help if all affected planets had the same local ethics attractions - so Black Sites, Temples, local Xeno slaves all have to either be provided, or entirely avoided. Again, still with only 2 governing ethics to keep things clean.
Another thing to observe would be an empire with 3 or 4 ethics present, for this having a non-spiritualist empire pick up psionic ascension should do the trick to get four factions without outside interference.
@Tobasco da Gama here's the thing: when I bring up the pop information for a pop on e.g. my capital and look at the tooltip for ethics attraction, and I see that only two ethics are present in the list, I expect that long-term, once the system has had time to work, only those two ethics will be present in that kind of pop on that planet.
That is what is in dispute, all other issues with the ethics nonwithstanding (*)
(*) "Hello my name is a happy Authoritarian Ruler Pop on the Imperial Capital. We have xeno slaves serving us, so now I embrace equality, even though I'm happy with the status quo!" (Actual thing in the game right now >_>)