Empire of Japan sits out ww2

[Nicophorus]

Let us say that Japan does not go to war with china after the Macro Polo Bridge affair or at least allows itself to be mollified with a few token gestures. Either way, there is no big 2nd Japanese Sino war and no Pacific War for Japan.

How would the Empire of Japan developed in Asia?

Would we see Korea and Japan integrate further, and together with Taiwan and Sakhalin become thoroughly Japanese homelands with a fast assimilating population of new Japanese?

Does Manchuria have a real future? Would either China (communist or nationalist, whoever wins) tolerate an independent Manchuria after their warlord era ends? Would China go to war with an intact Empire of Japan over this? If the communists win in China , one would think cold war politics would come into play and USA + friends regard Manchuria as another south Vietnam?

A intact Empire of Japan would be in a better position to influence the newly independent former colonies in Asia and the Pacific (even without a Pacific war, we have to assume an exhausted UK/France/Netherlands won't be holding onto their colonies for long).

With now unlimited natural resources are we looking at Japan as a 3rd super power in the 1950s?

 

[Graf Zeppelin]

With now unlimited natural resources are we looking at Japan as a 3rd super power in the 1950s?

Unlimited ? From where does Japan get its fuel ?

 

[Amallric]

They would suffer from decolonisation as much as any other power. Their future would be more comparable to Spain and Portugal in my opinion than to a superpower: a militaristic, isolated state with an empire on the verge of collapse.

 

[Kovax]

Without the extensive reconstruction after WWII, Japan would not have built up the consumer sector of the economy to anywhere near the extent it did historically. An expensive military arm, all dressed up and nowhere to go, eating money the whole time, does not make for rapid economic growth. I don't see it as being a "superpower" at all, and maybe not even being in as good a position as it is now.

Also, in the absence of Marco Polo and the ensuing war between Japan and China, I can picture continuing cooperation between Germany and Nat. China, and increasing pressure on Mao's forces, unless the SU decides to intervene. The picture I get, with Germany eventually at war with the SU, and China nominally supporting Germany (but probably not actively involved) is again quite different from what the OP is suggesting.

 

[JodelDiplom]

Assimilation of Koreans is not going to happen. Koreans were a subjugated people, but a proud people. But what is going to happen for sure, is communist agitation against the Japanese rule, and immense pressure from the Chinese against the existing Japanese rule in Manchuria. I don't see how an atrophic, ossified Japan in the 1950s could stand up against all the hostility that the general political climate of declination and polarization (capitalism vs communism) after WW2 would bring.

 

[Nicophorus]

Unlimited ? From where does Japan get its fuel ?

From the southern resource area, of course. Only in this scenario bought from the newly independent nations and exchanged for finished products from Japanese industries that were not fire and nuke bombed in the Pacific war that never was.

Why does the Empire of Japan have to be ossified into the 1950s? Why not a large, dynamic and hard working people that suddenly is no longer blocked from their natural trading partners by European colonial empires sees a rush of prosperity and the political reforms that comes with prosperity across all social strata?

I.E. Why can't the Empire of Japan do for "war torn" (civil or colonial) East and Southeast Asia what the USA did for Europe? Minus all the free stuff (will be traded for natural resources).

With policy changes I don't see why Japan and Korea cannot have a "better together" existence a la England/Scotland. The Chinese (or Soviet, take your pick) Elephant in the room is a good marriage councilor I would imagine.

Manchuria is the problem though. But what a chip to trade away to china (if china is nationalist controlled) or to hold over the falling dominoes people in Washington D.C. (if china is communist).

Japan in the 1930's was not some weak banana republic like Portugal or Spain. Does its only hope for success rest in white peoples hands? I find that hard to believe.

 

[Arilou]

Japan in the 1930's was not some weak banana republic like Portugal or Spain

That was precisely what it was. It couldn't even control it's own army.

 

[Graf Zeppelin]

From the southern resource area, of course. Only in this scenario bought from the newly independent nations and exchanged for finished products from Japanese industries that were not fire and nuke bombed in the Pacific war that never was.

Why does the Empire of Japan have to be ossified into the 1950s? Why not a large, dynamic and hard working people that suddenly is no longer blocked from their natural trading partners by European colonial empires sees a rush of prosperity and the political reforms that comes with prosperity across all social strata?

I.E. Why can't the Empire of Japan do for "war torn" (civil or colonial) East and Southeast Asia what the USA did for Europe? Minus all the free stuff (will be traded for natural resources).

With policy changes I don't see why Japan and Korea cannot have a "better together" existence a la England/Scotland. The Chinese (or Soviet, take your pick) Elephant in the room is a good marriage councilor I would imagine.

Manchuria is the problem though. But what a chip to trade away to china (if china is nationalist controlled) or to hold over the falling dominoes people in Washington D.C. (if china is communist).

Japan in the 1930's was not some weak banana republic like Portugal or Spain. Does its only hope for success rest in white peoples hands? I find that hard to believe.

I think you underestimate the mentality of the Japanese ruling class.
Also there is no better together with China or Korea, not even without the atrocities of WW2.

There are also no freely independent nations in the east indies who can trade oil. They have either US or Soviet troops siting there or are subjugated by Japan and wage a guerilla war.

Your conclusions are as plausible as an Israeli-Nazi Germany alliance in the 50s if the Reich survived or a pygmie president of the CSA.

Also what has your white people comment to do with this ?

 

[Graf Zeppelin]

That was precisely what it was. It couldn't even control it's own army.

Well to be fair it was a strong banana republic.

 

[gagenater]

Without the total economic reconstruction after WWII Japan wasn't in an economic position to trade anything with S.E. Asia because it didn't produce anything they wanted at a better quality or cheaper price than someone else. That's why they tried to procure those resources by conquest - because they couldn't do it by trade.

 

[Nicophorus]

Also what has your white people comment to do with this ?

This line of thinking:

Without the total economic reconstruction after WWII Japan wasn't in an economic position to trade anything with S.E. Asia because it didn't produce anything they wanted at a better quality or cheaper price than someone else. That's why they tried to procure those resources by conquest - because they couldn't do it by trade.

So with what did Japan modernize, industrialize, and create such formidable modern armies and navies with from the fall of the Shogun to ww2? Secret white hands helping them? Switch out white for western I suppose, but that is the vibe I get when told "japan was doomed to remain a silly little failure/banana republic unless USA nuked and occupied/rebuilt them".

Also, why can't the Empire of Japan (without USA nukes and pacific war nation building/civilizing/white man's burden "help") evolve at least as richly as mainland china or independent Taiwan? Who saved PRC and RoC from their banana-hood btw?

 

[gagenater]

This line of thinking:



So with what did Japan modernize, industrialize, and create such formidable modern armies and navies with from the fall of the Shogun to ww2? Secret white hands helping them? Switch out white for western I suppose, but that is the vibe I get when told "japan was doomed to remain a silly little failure/banana republic unless USA nuked and occupied/rebuilt them".

Also, why can't the Empire of Japan (without USA nukes and pacific war nation building/civilizing/white man's burden "help") evolve at least as richly as mainland china or independent Taiwan? Who saved PRC and RoC from their banana-hood btw?

I never said Japan was a banana republic. But if you look at ANY data from pre WWII it's painfully obvious that Japan was much poorer than any of the other major powers bar Italy. It got its formidable military by pouring everything it had into it. It was following a 'western' model but the model it picked was the Spartan and Prussian one. It's civilian economy was tiny in comparison to its well developed and relatively capable military economy. It's primary exports were fabric (especially silk) specialty foodstuffs and cheap/poorly made toys and consumer products. Without a war it would eventually have probably done OK but it would have happened much more slowly, and it's overall level of wealth would even today probably be a good 30-50% less than it is in real life. Of course this assumes that tue entire Japanese political culture that existed in the 1930's and 40's gets lobotomized away from the rest of Japan. Otherwise they will wind up in a massive war under some slightly different circumstances.

From an economic and military perspective Japan during and before WWII somewhat resembles the post WWII USSR but without the natural resources - a massive and formidable military built on a poor populace supported by only the most basic economy and ruling over a host of un integrated minorities dreaming of ways to escape.

 

[Henry IX]

The other major issue is that without the massive loss of presige that the European powers suffered during WWII at the hands of the Japanese, they would have been able to hold on to their colonial possessions for much longer. Both myths of European military superiority and 'White Man's Burden' where shattered by the defeats and chaos of the Japanese invasions of 1941. Without this many of the subject people would have continued to accept the propaganda of their colonial masters. As such I think it is plausible that the decolonialisation process is delayed by 10-20 years. Which means no open trading markets for the Japanese.

 

[Fornadan]

Japan is not going to be able to avoid war in China. There are too many Chinese itching for a go at it, and too many unruly Japanese officers. Incidents will continue to happen, and one of them will lead to war

 

[Andre Bolkonsky]

I think you underestimate the mentality of the Japanese ruling class.

Your conclusions are as plausible as an Israeli-Nazi Germany alliance in the 50s if the Reich survived or a pygmie president of the CSA.

Also what has your white people comment to do with this ?

LOL! +1. Nothing more to say, unless we are going to discuss how an invasion of Amazon Women from the Moon might influence this situation, but I enjoyed that line, GZ.

 

[Graf Zeppelin]

So with what did Japan modernize, industrialize, and create such formidable modern armies and navies with from the fall of the Shogun to ww2? Secret white hands helping them?

Ah no, these white hands did help them quite open and for cash usually. They bought stuff and started to copy it until they could replicate it to the point of improving and making own designs.

You realy need to get the racism thoughts out of your head. They didnt need to get nuked but their societal order needed to colapse to get where they are now. Ya know, like Germany too.
Gagenater is absolutely right there. Besides their military industry there was not much.To be fair they have been on the verge of making fine civilian aircraft thanks to their... well military.

 

[Graf Zeppelin]

LOL! +1. Nothing more to say, unless we are going to discuss how an invasion of Amazon Women from the Moon might influence this situation, but I enjoyed that line, GZ.

:laugh:

 

[Andre Bolkonsky]

Ah no, these white hands did help them quite open and for cash usually. They bought stuff and started to copy it until they could replicate it to the point of improving and making own designs.

You realy need to get the racism thoughts out of your head. They didnt need to get nuked but their societal order needed to colapse to get where they are now. Ya know, like Germany too.
Gagenater is absolutely right there. Besides their military industry there was not much.To be fair they have been on the verge of making fine civilian aircraft thanks to their... well military.

To piggyback, there is more than one argument in the world that states the US dropped both atomic weapons on Japan to pre-empt the Soviets joining the alliance and taking a share of the Home Islands. And, to show the Soviets what we could do to them if they chose to cause trouble in the West.

Rather amazing how swiftly the Soviets went from ally to enemy, like the blink of an eye.

Having said that, my Dad, who was with the US Army Air Corps in the Pacific and who would have been involved in the invasion along with the rest of the Army, would go ballistic when discussing exactly how many US lives would have been lost if the US had to invade; and described in great detail the absolute jubilation among the troops when those two bombs precluded the entire invasion.

 

[Graf Zeppelin]

Having said that, my Dad, who was with the US Army Air Corps in the Pacific and who would have been involved in the invasion along with the rest of the Army, would go ballistic when discussing exactly how many US lives would have been lost if the US had to invade; and described in great detail the absolute jubilation among the troops when those two bombs precluded the entire invasion.

Understandable, Okinawa gave a good glimpse on how that might have worked out. the loss of lifes for both sides would have been terrific. I also think that operation downfall had a good chance to go horrible wrong.
I dont think that the A-Bombs been the only reason for Japanese surrender but they certainly accelerated the decision.

 

[RedRalphWiggum]

Too many butterflies, especially as China is unrecognisable now. Also, the USSR may well have gotten on better with a nationalist China than a communist one, paradoxically.