The White House
Washington DC, United States of America
November 19th, 1939
They were five, sitting around a polished wooden conference table that could have accomodated five times their number. It was Sunday, and while they all wore their Sunday suits, there was no festive mood in the White House conference room, rather it was more in tone with the weather. Outside the large windows of the room, painted and papered in light blue and white, a dome of lead bloted out the sun and the blue sky, dispensing instead a drizzling rain on the shivering capital of the United States of America. It was bitterly cold outside. Autumn was nearly over, as the leafless trees could testify too and winter was coming fast.
At the head of the table, President Franklin D. Roosevelt threw a small pile of machine-typed papers on the shining table surface, disgust as clearly evident in the gesture as in every line of his face. ‘I assume I do not need to tell you why I’ve called for this meeting on a Sunday.’
‘It’s been one hell of a week, Mr President, and that’s no joke’, Vice President “Cactus Jack” Gardner muttered. ‘Cordell, I don’t envy you and your boys at the State Department. You must be running around like beheaded chicken right now.’
Cordell Hull, Secretary of State for Roosevelt since his first term, made a face as if he had bitten into a lemon. When he answered, his voice was dripping with bitter sarcasm. ‘Why? Just because the damn Nazis just took Paris and a new hostile Great Power has appeared overnight in Asia? Why would that upset the steady pace of work of the State Department, Mr Vice President?’
There was a snort of laughter from the Secretaries of War and of the Navy, Harry H. Woodring and Charles Edison. But it was bitter too – there was no place for any other kind today, when the President’s foreign policy was falling to pieces around his ears.
‘All right, let’s deal with this mess one thing at a time, see what we can fix and what we’ll have to live with’, the President said, trying to bring some method to bear on the situation. ‘Let’s start with Europe. Harry, what’s your take, does this mean the end of the war?’
Harry Woodring shook his head ruefully. ‘It means the end of France’s participation in it anyway. According to Donovan, the new French Premiér, Pétain, has asked the Germans for terms.’
Roosevelt looked shattered. ‘But… surely they cannot have been so completely defeated? Paris is in the north of the country, after all most of France is still unoccupied. Couldn’t they keep up the fight if they really wanted to?’
Again, Woodring shook his head. ‘Not for long, no. Let’s face it, the French gave all they had in Belgium and by all accounts they put up one hell of a fight. We estimate most German Panzer Divisions are down 30-50% from their pre-war strength. As you might all remember, we were initially very optimistic about their chances, since the Germans did just what the French expected them to do - retry the plan from the last war.’
‘Typical German unimaginative pig-headedness!’ said the President dismissively.
‘Perhaps. Or maybe they were so full of themselves they wanted to emulate the old Romans of the early Republic, who liked to warn their enemies of where and when Rome would attack so that they would know after their defeat that it was inevitable. Whatever the reason, the French Army was ready and waiting for the Boche – they were just not ready for HOW the Boche would fight: the armoured breakthroughs, close support by dive bombers, interdiction by bombers of supply routes… It’s a whole new way to make war. And the French have paid a heavy price – their air force has been all but annihilated and they might have lost as much as half their army in the encirclement battles after the German breakthrough at Brussels. And the British Expeditionary Corps, as you know, was among those formations forced to surrender, so Britain too has lost the cream of her Army.’
‘Well, there was precious little to loose anyway.’ Vice President Gardner objected. ‘Two divisions, that’s not an army, it’s a police force.’
‘They were professional soldiers, Jack.’ Roosevelt objected. ‘The British will miss those men before it’s over. And their loss, added to the fall of France, will have political consequences. Chamberlain’s government is going to fall, and God knows who’ll replace him. Lord Halifax? That could mean a negotiated peace. Or Churchill? If so, Britain will fight to the end.’
‘You’ve got that right, Mr President,’ Woodring agreed. ‘Damn! If only the Belgians hadn’t surrendered so quickly, if only they’ve held Brussels for a few more days…’
‘It’s no use Harry, let it be. OK, France is gone. Do you think the fall of Paris might have shaken Congress enough for them to look the other way while I ignore the Neutrality Act and help the British out?’
There was another round of bitter laughter. “Yeah, when Hell freezes over” was its wordless message.
Roosevelt smiled without mirth. ‘Of course not, how foolish of me. But they can’t very well object to me leasing British bases for our Navy in the Caribbean, can they Charles?’
The Acting Secretary of the Navy, Charles Edison looked perplexed. ‘I guess we could use bases in the Bahamas and the Antillas for anti-submarine patrols. What would we have to pay for them?’
‘I was thinking fifty destroyers would be a quite reasonable price…’ Roosevelt answered, looking perfectly innocent.
Harry Woodring threw back his head and laughed out loud, with genuine humour this time, while Vice President Gardner frowned and Edison looked stricken.
‘Careful, Franklin… One of these days you’ll go to far!’ Gardner warned.
‘But Mr President… Fifty! I… we can’t spare that many!’ protested the horrified Secretary of the Navy. ‘Not with the Pan-Asian Empire drooling over the Philippines!’
‘Which brings us nicely on to the next order of business!’ the President answered, smoothly avoiding any debate over the issue. ‘Cordell, what can we expect of this mismatched union? Will they put their money where they put their mouths? Will they try a land grab and who will be their target?’
Hull shrugged. ‘I… just can’t tell. I’ve spoken with Ambassador Horinouchi, who will now represent the Pan-Asian Empire instead of the Empire of Japan, and he seems as perplexed as we are. I got the distinct impression that he hasn’t received any instructions from the Imperial Government, so he doesn’t know if he should try to gloss over the imperialist rhetorics of the Twin Emperors regarding the European colonies or not. But if we make the safe assumption that they mean what they say, then my guess is that there will be an ultimatum to France demanding Indochina any day. The French will cave in, I believe. They cannot hold it and their citizens there will be defenceless. Then, I’d expect them to turn on the Dutch, because they’re neutral and weak. Britain, it’s possible while they’re busy fighting the Germans, but the Royal Navy is strong and will give them pause. We, I’d say, are last on their list, which doesn’t mean we’re not on it, but our Navy is strong too and we’re not under threat in our homeland. There will be extensive consolidation and a naval build up before we’re in any real danger.’
‘Is the Pan-Asian Empire bound by the Washington Naval Treaty like Japan was?’ Woodring wondered.
‘Oh, I guess they could easily argue that they’re not, if they want to.’ Hull answered with a shrug. ‘But honestly, the treaty hasn’t stopped the Japanese from building whatever caught their fancy.’
‘I actually worry more about what they are able to build than what they are allowed to by that treaty.’ Edison interjected. ‘The Japanese Imperial Navy was able to match us in carriers, light cruisers and submarines. With the industries and resources of China, and apparently soon also Indochina added to those of Japan, I think we might be looking at a new industrial giant here. How many and how big new ships will they have a couple of years from now, say in 1942?’
‘A sobering thought, Charles’, the President conceded. ‘I suspect we never imagined this would come from supporting the Chinese, but… but we had to do something to stem the rise of Fascism!’
‘And look how well that turned out!’ Vice President Gardner said mockingly. Taking in the angry looks he got from the others, he shrugged. ‘Sorry, Franklin, but you know that is what the House will think when you try to push through aid for Britain. This Pan-Asian business has damaged your standing in foreign policy, it can’t be helped.’
‘It’s a completely different situation!’ protested the President. ‘It’s not like Britain is going to join Hitler, form the Anglo-Germanic Empire and invade from Canada, right?’
There was polite laughter at the joke, but it was half-hearted. Who could know what to expect when bitter enemies like Japan and China could unite?
‘All right, Charles, from what both you and Cordell say, it seems we might be in for a naval race with the Pan-Asians. Look into what you think we’ll need to build to match them, and I’ll bring it to the House – somehow, I’ll make them see reason.’
‘Before or after you present them with your bases for destroyers scheme?’ the Vice President asked pointedly.
‘Before, I guess. In politics, timing is everything.’