A SPEECH by the DUKE of ALBA before the KING and the CABINET ((Revan + Cabinet members, Private))
Your Catholic Majesty, my dear colleagues,
While the matter of the taxation of nobility which my young cousin, the Duke of Infantado, has so boisterously raised, is, of importance, I would dare to speak on certain issues, which, in my humble opinion, are of no less magnitude.
The Foreign Secretary smiles sardonically, before continuing.
The recent change of the regime in France and its war with Prussia make the current political situation in Europe most worrisome. The Concert of Europe may crumble and the international peace may be threatened long term, if the revanchist Bonapartist ideas become dominant within such a powerful country - which, unluckily enough, borders us. We must do our utmost not to become a mere pawn in this situation and prevent any happenings that might endanger our Realm and its interests - we should take measures. If I am to be more precise, we need to, by hook and by crook, prevent an alliance between a jingoistic and liberal France and the United Kingdom that would be aimed against Spain and Carlism. I currently see the two paths we could choose.
I. The current conflict between the Kingdom of Prussia and France could be used to try to end the current Parisian government and replace it with one sympathetic towards Spain, similar to the one existing in Lissabon. That is one of Charles X. At better times a military intervention coming from Austria and Spain, with the help of Prussia, could have led to a positive result.
But we all know that currently the situation is troublesome. The three Black Eagles that have been guarding order in Europe for so long are not in the best shape. The financial crisis in Russia, the problems in Hungary in Austria, the current unsuccessful war efforts of Prussia - all of this is quite disheartening.
At the same time, we know that there are possibilites of further Jacobin unrests in Spain itself, that we need to guard our interests at Portugal and the colonies, so sending our armies to a big war may be dangerous for the stability of the Throne. However, I would like our presiding minister, the Secretary of the War Office, the Captain General and the Minister for Interior to comment on this assumption in more detail.
However, if we are to choose this approach, I would advise the following path.
1. We are to confer in a most discreet manner with the monarchs and heads of government of Russia and Austria and discuss the possibilities to send a united expeditionary army to assist Prussia in their war against Bonaparte. It should be done in a very secret way, through a special envoy, perhaps, one of the members of the family of His Catholic Majesty.
2. if the war takes place, we need to try to finance all kinds of uprisings in France, Legitimist, Orleanist or of other nature, that could destabilize his rule.
However, as I said, this path is risky, if we take into account the revolutonary sentiment currently undermining Europe.
II. There is also another approach that does not correspond with my ideals, but is a pragmatic one - and I believe that, in my role of the Minister of Foreign Affairs, I should, first of all, think about the interests of my King. And, therefore, mention all existing opportunities.
The fall of Louis Philippe, to an extent, disturbs us, because his successor is a dark horse with dangerous associations and because we have reached a certain understanding with the so-called Citizen King few years ago, but, beyond that, it is not a very crucial concern. He was always our enemy at heart, one that did not attack us only because his hands were tied. A petty bourgeoise at heart, a creature and servant of the party of liberal businessmen, he could not see beyond their dogmas, did his best to destroy the role of the classes and institutions that were the foundation of the monarchy - and was devoured by the same dragon that he has been raising since it was but a small lizard. I knew his government would fall one today and now see that was right about about warning against building too close ties with his dynasty.
Louis-Napoleon Bonaparte is a completely different person. It is an adventurer without clear convictions and obligations, whose only aim is the restoration of the Bonaparte dynasty and his personal power. Moreover, in the current absurd and chaotic political situation in France, he is more of a conservative force. A President who has many times expressed his preference towards monarchical rule, a politician whose election manifesto proclaims his support for "religion, the family, property, the eternal basis of all social order.", a head of state whom the party of order within current National Assembly sees as the lesser of evils - perhaps, we could mold him into a figure that would suit us?
it is clear that after the war with Prussia ends, the Prince President would seek means to become a part of the European Concert and to acquire legitimization for his rule, so that his presidential chair is turned into an Imperial throne. For all his vanity, he understands he is not the great tactical genius like his father was and would fear the rise of a new coalition against his regime.
Spain could exploit the shaky position in which Bonaparte is. What if would happen if Spain made ta bold move and reached out a hand of friendship towards the man? He could be promised the recognition of his regime and even support for him taking the Imperial throne. Spain could solicitor his recognition by its friends in the European Concert as well. Our Sovereign could even offer him the hand of one his more distant relatives, namely, one of the daughters of the Duke of Cadiz, Infante Luisa. A marriage with the princess of such an illustrious House would not only legitimize the attempts of Bonaparte to become Napoleon, become a Sovereign instead of a mere executive- but would bring the blood of the old Kings of France into his family.
And for its support Spaincould ask for much - and would have more chances to receive it than from the Citizen King. Ranging from guarantees regarding the peaceful policies of the future empire (as well as common defense of certain conservative principles) under Napoleon and recognition of Portugal as our sphere of interests to agreeing with our rights to certain territories in Africa, such as Morocco, and military support from the Empire for our endeavors.
However, if HIs Catholic Majesty chooses this approach, we must be sure that we do not lose the support of our allies within the Concert (such as Austria) and that we, in beforehand, find out the intentions and program of the Prince President.
Of course, we could also wait, keeping neutrality, but one cannot hide his head in the sand forever - and we need to decide on our position more or less quickly, before the rule of Napoleon solidifies too much and he decides on his priorities. Then it could be too late either to make him a meaningful partner or bring him down.
I am awaiting for the orders of His Catholic Majesty regarding the matter - as well the opinions of my most worthy colleagues.