• We have updated our Community Code of Conduct. Please read through the new rules for the forum that are an integral part of Paradox Interactive’s User Agreement.

BBBD316

Field Marshal
106 Badges
Jul 6, 2007
3.602
1.499
  • Ship Simulator Extremes
  • Impire
  • Europa Universalis III Complete
  • Knights of Pen and Paper +1 Edition
  • Magicka
  • March of the Eagles
  • Europa Universalis III Complete
  • Europa Universalis IV: Res Publica
  • Victoria: Revolutions
  • Europa Universalis: Rome
  • Rome Gold
  • Semper Fi
  • Sengoku
  • Heir to the Throne
  • Supreme Ruler: Cold War
  • Teleglitch: Die More Edition
  • Victoria 2
  • Victoria 2: A House Divided
  • Victoria 2: Heart of Darkness
  • Rome: Vae Victis
  • War of the Roses
  • 500k Club
  • Cities: Skylines
  • Cities: Skylines Deluxe Edition
  • Europa Universalis IV: El Dorado
  • Hearts of Iron IV: No Step Back
  • Darkest Hour
  • Hearts of Iron II: Armageddon
  • Cities in Motion
  • Crusader Kings II
  • Crusader Kings II: Charlemagne
  • Crusader Kings II: Legacy of Rome
  • Crusader Kings II: The Old Gods
  • Crusader Kings II: Rajas of India
  • Crusader Kings II: The Republic
  • Crusader Kings II: Sons of Abraham
  • Crusader Kings II: Sunset Invasion
  • Crusader Kings II: Sword of Islam
  • Commander: Conquest of the Americas
  • Arsenal of Democracy
  • Europa Universalis III
  • Europa Universalis III Complete
  • Divine Wind
  • Europa Universalis IV
  • Europa Universalis IV: Art of War
  • Europa Universalis IV: Conquest of Paradise
  • Europa Universalis IV: Wealth of Nations
  • For The Glory
  • For the Motherland
  • Hearts of Iron III
I know the Germans had no real plan for an east first policy.

But had they just tried to hold the french at the border and rolled through the Russians into the Baltic’s could they have peace with Russia by 1915?
 

Henry IX

Lt. General
37 Badges
Feb 6, 2012
1.459
2.449
  • Crusader Kings II: Legacy of Rome
  • Stellaris - Path to Destruction bundle
  • Stellaris: Leviathans Story Pack
  • Semper Fi
  • Europa Universalis IV: Res Publica
  • Hearts of Iron III: Their Finest Hour
  • Hearts of Iron III
  • For the Motherland
  • Europa Universalis IV: Wealth of Nations
  • Europa Universalis IV: Conquest of Paradise
  • Crusader Kings II
  • Crusader Kings II: Sword of Islam
  • Crusader Kings II: Sunset Invasion
  • Europa Universalis IV: Call to arms event
  • Crusader Kings II: The Republic
  • Steel Division: Normand 44 - Second Wave
  • Stellaris: Humanoids Species Pack
  • Stellaris: Nemesis
  • Stellaris: Apocalypse
  • Steel Division: Normandy 44 -  Back to Hell
  • Stellaris: Distant Stars
  • Stellaris: Megacorp
  • Stellaris: Ancient Relics
  • Stellaris: Lithoids
  • Stellaris: Federations
  • Stellaris: Necroids
  • Steel Division: Normandy 44
  • Stellaris: Digital Anniversary Edition
  • Hearts of Iron IV: Cadet
  • Stellaris Sign-up
  • Hearts of Iron IV Sign-up
  • Stellaris: Galaxy Edition
  • Stellaris: Galaxy Edition
  • Stellaris
  • 500k Club
  • Europa Universalis IV
  • Stellaris: Synthetic Dawn
I know the Germans had no real plan for an east first policy.

But had they just tried to hold the french at the border and rolled through the Russians into the Baltic’s could they have peace with Russia by 1915?

Counter-intuitively that might be the only thing that saves the Tsar. With an invader on you soil, trying to knock you out the population might just rally to the Tsar enough, and for long enough, for the Central Powers to lose. With the Tsar victorious in the great war, having saved mother Russia from the invaders, he might just be popular enough to not be overthrown until he dies someone more competent replaces him.

The invasion itself will fail as long as the Russian people are willing to keep fighting. There is simply no way for the Central Powers to take and control enough of Russia. The attack will fail for the same reason that Napoleon and Hitler failed. That's why the General Staff planned to knock France out first.
 

Gurkhal

General
51 Badges
Mar 27, 2009
1.796
1.176
  • Crusader Kings II
  • Europa Universalis: Rome
  • Europa Universalis IV: Third Rome
  • Crusader Kings II: Way of Life
  • Europa Universalis IV: Common Sense
  • Crusader Kings II: Horse Lords
  • Europa Universalis IV: Cossacks
  • Crusader Kings II: Conclave
  • Hearts of Iron IV: Cadet
  • Crusader Kings II: Reapers Due
  • Tyranny: Archon Edition
  • Hearts of Iron IV: Together for Victory
  • Crusader Kings II: Monks and Mystics
  • Europa Universalis IV: El Dorado
  • Tyranny - Tales from the Tiers
  • Tyranny - Bastards Wound
  • Age of Wonders
  • Age of Wonders II
  • Crusader Kings II: Jade Dragon
  • Hearts of Iron IV: Expansion Pass
  • Crusader Kings II: Holy Fury
  • Imperator: Rome Deluxe Edition
  • Imperator: Rome
  • Imperator: Rome Sign Up
  • Imperator: Rome - Magna Graecia
  • Crusader Kings III
  • 500k Club
  • Mount & Blade: With Fire and Sword
  • Victoria 2
  • Europa Universalis IV
  • Crusader Kings II: Charlemagne
  • Crusader Kings II: Legacy of Rome
  • Crusader Kings II: The Old Gods
  • Crusader Kings II: Rajas of India
  • Crusader Kings II: The Republic
  • Crusader Kings II: Sons of Abraham
  • Crusader Kings II: Sunset Invasion
  • Crusader Kings II: Sword of Islam
  • Europa Universalis IV: Art of War
  • Europa Universalis IV: Conquest of Paradise
  • Europa Universalis IV: Wealth of Nations
  • Europa Universalis IV: Call to arms event
  • Impire
  • March of the Eagles
  • Europa Universalis IV: Res Publica
  • Victoria: Revolutions
  • Rome Gold
  • Europa Universalis IV: Mare Nostrum
  • Victoria 2: A House Divided
  • Victoria 2: Heart of Darkness
Counter-intuitively that might be the only thing that saves the Tsar. With an invader on you soil, trying to knock you out the population might just rally to the Tsar enough, and for long enough, for the Central Powers to lose. With the Tsar victorious in the great war, having saved mother Russia from the invaders, he might just be popular enough to not be overthrown until he dies someone more competent replaces him.

The invasion itself will fail as long as the Russian people are willing to keep fighting. There is simply no way for the Central Powers to take and control enough of Russia. The attack will fail for the same reason that Napoleon and Hitler failed. That's why the General Staff planned to knock France out first.

But I feel that I must ask, which may be a bit of hindsight, but wouldn't the problems on the Russian homefront during the Russo-Japanese war only some 9-10 years before the Great War hint to the Germans that Russia may be more shaky than France? And that a couple of hard blows against the Russians could create internal turmoil so that problems on the home front would force Russia to seek peace, least they either risk a new revolution or that a new revolution would break out, to further undermine the Russian situation?

This is something that I've been wondering about for some time.
 

JodelDiplom

Field Marshal
22 Badges
Apr 5, 2013
4.512
18.524
  • Crusader Kings II: Horse Lords
  • Stellaris: Megacorp
  • Stellaris: Distant Stars
  • Stellaris: Apocalypse
  • Stellaris: Humanoids Species Pack
  • Stellaris - Path to Destruction bundle
  • Stellaris: Leviathans Story Pack
  • Stellaris: Digital Anniversary Edition
  • Stellaris
  • Crusader Kings II: Conclave
  • Crusader Kings II: Way of Life
  • Crusader Kings II: Charlemagne
  • Deus Vult
  • Crusader Kings II: Sword of Islam
  • Crusader Kings II: Sunset Invasion
  • Crusader Kings II: Sons of Abraham
  • Crusader Kings II: The Republic
  • Crusader Kings II: Rajas of India
  • Crusader Kings II: The Old Gods
  • Crusader Kings II: Legacy of Rome
  • Crusader Kings II
  • Stellaris: Synthetic Dawn
But I feel that I must ask, which may be a bit of hindsight, but wouldn't the problems on the Russian homefront during the Russo-Japanese war only some 9-10 years before the Great War hint to the Germans that Russia may be more shaky than France? And that a couple of hard blows against the Russians could create internal turmoil so that problems on the home front would force Russia to seek peace, least they either risk a new revolution or that a new revolution would break out, to further undermine the Russian situation?

This is something that I've been wondering about for some time.
Japan didn't invade Russia, it was Russians invading Manchuria in that war.

Germany invading Russia would be quite differently perceived, especially if the Germans are as reluctant to incite the Poles or other minorities to take up arms as they historically were. Very much a losers' game for the Germans.
 

bz249

Lt. General
29 Badges
Oct 20, 2008
1.667
216
  • Crusader Kings II: Charlemagne
  • Victoria 2: Heart of Darkness
  • Victoria 2: A House Divided
  • Heir to the Throne
  • Hearts of Iron III: Their Finest Hour
  • Hearts of Iron III
  • For the Motherland
  • Europa Universalis IV: Wealth of Nations
  • Europa Universalis IV: Art of War
  • Crusader Kings II
  • Divine Wind
  • Europa Universalis III Complete
  • Crusader Kings II: Sons of Abraham
  • Crusader Kings II: The Old Gods
  • Crusader Kings II: Legacy of Rome
  • Stellaris: Leviathans Story Pack
  • Stellaris: Digital Anniversary Edition
  • Europa Universalis IV: Rights of Man
  • Stellaris - Path to Destruction bundle
  • Hearts of Iron IV Sign-up
  • Stellaris
  • Europa Universalis IV: Common Sense
  • Crusader Kings II: Way of Life
  • Mount & Blade: Warband
  • 500k Club
  • Victoria 2
  • Europa Universalis III Complete
  • Europa Universalis III Complete
  • Europa Universalis IV
Counter-intuitively that might be the only thing that saves the Tsar. With an invader on you soil, trying to knock you out the population might just rally to the Tsar enough, and for long enough, for the Central Powers to lose. With the Tsar victorious in the great war, having saved mother Russia from the invaders, he might just be popular enough to not be overthrown until he dies someone more competent replaces him.

The invasion itself will fail as long as the Russian people are willing to keep fighting. There is simply no way for the Central Powers to take and control enough of Russia. The attack will fail for the same reason that Napoleon and Hitler failed. That's why the General Staff planned to knock France out first.

IRL the Russians were figting on home turf since 1915 (or at least inside the Russian Empire, probably not core Russia) yet they still decided enough is enough. Are they willing to die en masse for Serbia*.

*again let's assume that Conrad does not screw up and no later than IRL they occupy Serbia
 

Gurkhal

General
51 Badges
Mar 27, 2009
1.796
1.176
  • Crusader Kings II
  • Europa Universalis: Rome
  • Europa Universalis IV: Third Rome
  • Crusader Kings II: Way of Life
  • Europa Universalis IV: Common Sense
  • Crusader Kings II: Horse Lords
  • Europa Universalis IV: Cossacks
  • Crusader Kings II: Conclave
  • Hearts of Iron IV: Cadet
  • Crusader Kings II: Reapers Due
  • Tyranny: Archon Edition
  • Hearts of Iron IV: Together for Victory
  • Crusader Kings II: Monks and Mystics
  • Europa Universalis IV: El Dorado
  • Tyranny - Tales from the Tiers
  • Tyranny - Bastards Wound
  • Age of Wonders
  • Age of Wonders II
  • Crusader Kings II: Jade Dragon
  • Hearts of Iron IV: Expansion Pass
  • Crusader Kings II: Holy Fury
  • Imperator: Rome Deluxe Edition
  • Imperator: Rome
  • Imperator: Rome Sign Up
  • Imperator: Rome - Magna Graecia
  • Crusader Kings III
  • 500k Club
  • Mount & Blade: With Fire and Sword
  • Victoria 2
  • Europa Universalis IV
  • Crusader Kings II: Charlemagne
  • Crusader Kings II: Legacy of Rome
  • Crusader Kings II: The Old Gods
  • Crusader Kings II: Rajas of India
  • Crusader Kings II: The Republic
  • Crusader Kings II: Sons of Abraham
  • Crusader Kings II: Sunset Invasion
  • Crusader Kings II: Sword of Islam
  • Europa Universalis IV: Art of War
  • Europa Universalis IV: Conquest of Paradise
  • Europa Universalis IV: Wealth of Nations
  • Europa Universalis IV: Call to arms event
  • Impire
  • March of the Eagles
  • Europa Universalis IV: Res Publica
  • Victoria: Revolutions
  • Rome Gold
  • Europa Universalis IV: Mare Nostrum
  • Victoria 2: A House Divided
  • Victoria 2: Heart of Darkness
Japan didn't invade Russia, it was Russians invading Manchuria in that war.

Germany invading Russia would be quite differently perceived, especially if the Germans are as reluctant to incite the Poles or other minorities to take up arms as they historically were. Very much a losers' game for the Germans.

No, the Japanese were invading Russian occupied provinces. The Russian invasion was done severael years before the war and at no point did Russia to my knowledge encrouch on new territory, rather the opposite actually. You seem to be confusing the Russo-Japanese War with the Russian intervention during the Boxer Rebellion.

Problem is that the Germans invaded Russia from 1915 and onwards. And Russia faced a revolution at home and was forced into a disasterous peace and then into a civil war by this German invasion. An invasion that knocked out a great power is hardly a loser's game.

EDITED: Removed some stuff
 

JodelDiplom

Field Marshal
22 Badges
Apr 5, 2013
4.512
18.524
  • Crusader Kings II: Horse Lords
  • Stellaris: Megacorp
  • Stellaris: Distant Stars
  • Stellaris: Apocalypse
  • Stellaris: Humanoids Species Pack
  • Stellaris - Path to Destruction bundle
  • Stellaris: Leviathans Story Pack
  • Stellaris: Digital Anniversary Edition
  • Stellaris
  • Crusader Kings II: Conclave
  • Crusader Kings II: Way of Life
  • Crusader Kings II: Charlemagne
  • Deus Vult
  • Crusader Kings II: Sword of Islam
  • Crusader Kings II: Sunset Invasion
  • Crusader Kings II: Sons of Abraham
  • Crusader Kings II: The Republic
  • Crusader Kings II: Rajas of India
  • Crusader Kings II: The Old Gods
  • Crusader Kings II: Legacy of Rome
  • Crusader Kings II
  • Stellaris: Synthetic Dawn
No, the Japanese were invading Russian occupied provinces. The Russian invasion was done severael years before the war and at no point did Russia to my knowledge encrouch on new territory, rather the opposite actually. You seem to be confusing the Russo-Japanese War with the Russian intervention during the Boxer Rebellion.

Problem is that the Germans invaded Russia from 1915 and onwards. And Russia faced a revolution at home and was forced into a disasterous peace and then into a civil war by this German invasion. An invasion that knocked out a great power is hardly a loser's game.

EDITED: Removed some stuff
My point was, the Japanese did not invade any part of Russia, quite the contrary the Russians were fighting that war on foreign soil. Hence the lack of public enthusiasm.

Russia's involvement in WW1 started with invasions of Russian armies into German and Austrian territory. That too was by no means a good foundation to rally a people around. German armies did push the Russians back deep into Russian territory but that was pretty much self defense. The Russians could have made the Germans and Austrians leave Russia at any time in 1915/1916 just by signing a separate peace, it wasn't like anyone was threatening Russia with predatory designs and had to be defeated in order to defend Russia...

You can only rally your people around a claim of fighting a just war in self defense when you are actually being invaded and the enemy actively wants to conquer your land. The reasoning must be clear and obvious to the people.

That was not the case in the Russo Japanese war nor in 1914. When you need to involve hair splitting arguments over who exactly invaded whom or whether or not the enemy really wants to conquer you then it's not going to be a credible argument.

1812 and 1941 had just that, a really blatant and obvious aggression of powerful foreign armies against Russia. The Russians quickly rallied around their leadership despite defeats and the invaders making huge inroads, and the Russians ended up winning both of those wars.
 

pithorr

Retired hippie
5 Badges
Mar 1, 2001
3.126
10.244
  • Europa Universalis III
  • Hearts of Iron III
  • 500k Club
  • Stellaris
  • Hearts of Iron IV: Cadet
1812 and 1941 had just that, a really blatant and obvious aggression of powerful foreign armies against Russia. The Russians quickly rallied around their leadership despite defeats and the invaders making huge inroads, and the Russians ended up winning both of those wars.

I think actually the proficient inner terror apparatus worked well in the case of those invasions, which decadent late imperial Russia apparently lacked ;)
 

olm

Agent Provocateur
11 Badges
Aug 31, 2013
705
11.920
  • Europa Universalis IV
  • Pillars of Eternity
  • Europa Universalis IV: Common Sense
  • Hearts of Iron IV: Cadet
  • Steel Division: Normandy 44
  • Steel Division: Normandy 44 Deluxe Edition
  • Steel Division: Normand 44 Sign-up
  • Crusader Kings III
  • Crusader Kings III: Royal Edition
  • Crusader Kings II
  • Europa Universalis IV: Art of War
I don't see 1812 as a very relevant comparison here. It was a comparatively short campaign, there wasn't really much of long term attrition testing population's morale, Russians (+Barclay de Tolly) basically simply outmanouvered Napoleon.
 

pithorr

Retired hippie
5 Badges
Mar 1, 2001
3.126
10.244
  • Europa Universalis III
  • Hearts of Iron III
  • 500k Club
  • Stellaris
  • Hearts of Iron IV: Cadet
I don't see 1812 as a very relevant comparison here. It was a comparatively short campaign, there wasn't really much of long term attrition testing population's morale, Russians (+Barclay de Tolly) basically simply outmanouvered Napoleon.

Scorched earth strategy was technically the same in 1812...
 

olm

Agent Provocateur
11 Badges
Aug 31, 2013
705
11.920
  • Europa Universalis IV
  • Pillars of Eternity
  • Europa Universalis IV: Common Sense
  • Hearts of Iron IV: Cadet
  • Steel Division: Normandy 44
  • Steel Division: Normandy 44 Deluxe Edition
  • Steel Division: Normand 44 Sign-up
  • Crusader Kings III
  • Crusader Kings III: Royal Edition
  • Crusader Kings II
  • Europa Universalis IV: Art of War
Yeah, but there was no "omg, we had army wiped out, then another one, no victory in sight, lets stay strong!" situation. Army that Russia fielded at beginning of campaign was the same one that chased Nappy out and whole thing was over in less than half a year.
 

Imgran

General
28 Badges
Nov 2, 2003
2.170
1.554
  • Victoria: Revolutions
  • Prison Architect
  • Crusader Kings II: Reapers Due
  • Hearts of Iron IV: Cadet
  • Europa Universalis IV: Mare Nostrum
  • Crusader Kings II: Conclave
  • Europa Universalis IV: Common Sense
  • Crusader Kings II: Way of Life
  • Mount & Blade: With Fire and Sword
  • Europa Universalis IV: El Dorado
  • Cities: Skylines
  • Victoria 2: Heart of Darkness
  • Victoria 2: A House Divided
  • Victoria 2
  • Crusader Kings II
  • Europa Universalis IV: Res Publica
  • Europa Universalis III Complete
  • Europa Universalis III Complete
  • Heir to the Throne
  • Europa Universalis IV: Wealth of Nations
  • Europa Universalis IV: Conquest of Paradise
  • Europa Universalis IV: Art of War
  • Europa Universalis IV
  • Divine Wind
  • Europa Universalis III Complete
  • Europa Universalis III
  • Crusader Kings II: The Old Gods
  • Crusader Kings II: Legacy of Rome
These "limited and uncomited reserve forces" are considered by many historians critical for the Schleifen plan failing.2 Armeekorps after all. If thats true or not is up for debate but handwaving those opinions away like that is very bold.

As I understand it, and I could be wrong but this is my understanding, the forces committed to the east were supposed to be available to allow some of the forces on the spearhead into France to rotate out to keep fresh forces in the van of the main thrust of the advance under General von Kluck. The lack of reserves to replace the spearhead units forced the Germans to lead with forces that had been fighting for the entire offensive, their exhaustion slowed down the advance just enough to keep Von Kluck from getting behind Paris, which was the original goal of the invasion

Specifically, had the German front been able to march at the speed of a fresh unit rather than an exhausted one, Marshall Joffre would never have been able to complete his movement to create and deploy a new French army on the fly, to the left of the BEF, which is widely considered a critical turning point in the French resistence to the Schlieffen offensive as that army stiffened the resistance in front of von Kluck and forced this army to turn south and east seeking to exploit the gap between the BEF and another French army, which is why the battle came to a head at the Marne to the east-northeast of Paris rather than to the north or northwest of Paris where von Kluck was originally trying to go.

If they'd been able to exploit the lack of French defense and overreliance on the BEF in the northwestern wing of the German offensive before that French army had formed, they could have prevented it from forming and completed a movement which threatened to easily encircle Paris as had been done in the previous war. And it was the lack of fresh replacements which had been sent east that played a surprisingly huge role in preventing that from happening.
 
Last edited:

Gurkhal

General
51 Badges
Mar 27, 2009
1.796
1.176
  • Crusader Kings II
  • Europa Universalis: Rome
  • Europa Universalis IV: Third Rome
  • Crusader Kings II: Way of Life
  • Europa Universalis IV: Common Sense
  • Crusader Kings II: Horse Lords
  • Europa Universalis IV: Cossacks
  • Crusader Kings II: Conclave
  • Hearts of Iron IV: Cadet
  • Crusader Kings II: Reapers Due
  • Tyranny: Archon Edition
  • Hearts of Iron IV: Together for Victory
  • Crusader Kings II: Monks and Mystics
  • Europa Universalis IV: El Dorado
  • Tyranny - Tales from the Tiers
  • Tyranny - Bastards Wound
  • Age of Wonders
  • Age of Wonders II
  • Crusader Kings II: Jade Dragon
  • Hearts of Iron IV: Expansion Pass
  • Crusader Kings II: Holy Fury
  • Imperator: Rome Deluxe Edition
  • Imperator: Rome
  • Imperator: Rome Sign Up
  • Imperator: Rome - Magna Graecia
  • Crusader Kings III
  • 500k Club
  • Mount & Blade: With Fire and Sword
  • Victoria 2
  • Europa Universalis IV
  • Crusader Kings II: Charlemagne
  • Crusader Kings II: Legacy of Rome
  • Crusader Kings II: The Old Gods
  • Crusader Kings II: Rajas of India
  • Crusader Kings II: The Republic
  • Crusader Kings II: Sons of Abraham
  • Crusader Kings II: Sunset Invasion
  • Crusader Kings II: Sword of Islam
  • Europa Universalis IV: Art of War
  • Europa Universalis IV: Conquest of Paradise
  • Europa Universalis IV: Wealth of Nations
  • Europa Universalis IV: Call to arms event
  • Impire
  • March of the Eagles
  • Europa Universalis IV: Res Publica
  • Victoria: Revolutions
  • Rome Gold
  • Europa Universalis IV: Mare Nostrum
  • Victoria 2: A House Divided
  • Victoria 2: Heart of Darkness
My point was, the Japanese did not invade any part of Russia, quite the contrary the Russians were fighting that war on foreign soil. Hence the lack of public enthusiasm.

Russia's involvement in WW1 started with invasions of Russian armies into German and Austrian territory. That too was by no means a good foundation to rally a people around. German armies did push the Russians back deep into Russian territory but that was pretty much self defense. The Russians could have made the Germans and Austrians leave Russia at any time in 1915/1916 just by signing a separate peace, it wasn't like anyone was threatening Russia with predatory designs and had to be defeated in order to defend Russia...

You can only rally your people around a claim of fighting a just war in self defense when you are actually being invaded and the enemy actively wants to conquer your land. The reasoning must be clear and obvious to the people.

That was not the case in the Russo Japanese war nor in 1914. When you need to involve hair splitting arguments over who exactly invaded whom or whether or not the enemy really wants to conquer you then it's not going to be a credible argument.

1812 and 1941 had just that, a really blatant and obvious aggression of powerful foreign armies against Russia. The Russians quickly rallied around their leadership despite defeats and the invaders making huge inroads, and the Russians ended up winning both of those wars.

Ok, I will probably sound like of the jerk pedants that populate these forums, but if that was your point, please state that point from the start. When you say that "it was Russians invading Manchuria in that war" it creates a whole load of different things than saying that "the Russians were fighting that war on foreign soil". But everyone can make a mistake and on the internet where tone and body language is lacking, its no suprise there may be some misses in communication.

I understand your logic with defending one's land tend to be a motivation but then the Central Powers in the Great War also had some pretty predatory designs on Russia, as seen in the Brest-Litovsk, yet even so the Russians made peace and lost vast territories in European Russia. Thus I don't think was so easy for Russia as to simply make peace in order to make the Central Powers go away in 1915 or 1916, unless Russia was ready to pay the price for that peace.

But its naturally possible that there would have been a greater sense of urgency in 1812 and 1941 than in 1914, even if as I recall the war was somewhat popular in Russia in the start as well. But I will give a point in that its probably easier to motivate people to fight if you're in the subject of unprovoked aggression rather than a player in a very complicated power struggle to which understanding is only for the very top of the respective governments.
 

yerm

Field Marshal
68 Badges
Apr 18, 2013
4.662
4.867
  • Crusader Kings II: Charlemagne
  • Stellaris: Synthetic Dawn
  • Europa Universalis IV: Third Rome
  • Stellaris - Path to Destruction bundle
  • Europa Universalis IV: Rights of Man
  • Stellaris: Galaxy Edition
  • Stellaris: Galaxy Edition
  • Europa Universalis IV: Pre-order
  • Europa Universalis IV: Res Publica
  • Europa Universalis IV: Wealth of Nations
  • Europa Universalis IV: Conquest of Paradise
  • Crusader Kings II: Legacy of Rome
  • Dungeonland
  • Crusader Kings II: Sword of Islam
  • Crusader Kings II: Sunset Invasion
  • Crusader Kings II: The Old Gods
  • Europa Universalis IV: Art of War
  • Crusader Kings II: Rajas of India
  • Crusader Kings II
  • Crusader Kings II: The Republic
  • Crusader Kings II: Sons of Abraham
  • Hearts of Iron IV: Expansion Pass
  • BATTLETECH
  • Surviving Mars
  • Hearts of Iron IV: Death or Dishonor
  • Age of Wonders III
  • Europa Universalis IV: Cradle of Civilization
  • Stellaris: Digital Anniversary Edition
  • Stellaris: Humanoids Species Pack
  • Stellaris: Apocalypse
  • Europa Universalis IV: Rule Britannia
  • Hearts of Iron IV: No Step Back
  • Stellaris: Distant Stars
  • Europa Universalis IV: Dharma
  • Surviving Mars: First Colony Edition
  • Europa Universalis IV: Golden Century
  • Europa Universalis IV: Mandate of Heaven
  • Stellaris: Leviathans Story Pack
  • Hearts of Iron IV: Field Marshal
  • Hearts of Iron IV: Colonel
  • Hearts of Iron IV: Cadet
  • Stellaris: Galaxy Edition
  • Stellaris
  • Europa Universalis IV: Mare Nostrum
  • Europa Universalis IV: Cossacks
  • Crusader Kings II: Horse Lords
  • Europa Universalis IV: Common Sense
  • Pillars of Eternity
  • Crusader Kings II: Way of Life
  • Europa Universalis IV: El Dorado
The entire reason for Russia to mobilize and defend Serbia was the complete and total lack of prestige, support, or stability at home. The entire German path to the war centered on the assumption that Russia feared it could not survive a humiliation and would thus defend Serbia against Austria.

Meanwhile, before long, Russia WAS being invaded by Germans in their territory anyway. So a Russia first plan just means this but earlier and further in.

Germany ended up winning in 1917 with them as their secondary target. I cannot imagine anything but fantasy, aliens, or losing to the French would cause Germany putting more focus east resulting in an even slower victory there. Nicky being bumrushed even faster is going to be worse for his rule - the reasons for the war are not changing here.
 

Culise

General Nuisance
101 Badges
Jul 17, 2003
1.224
1.899
Visit site
  • Crusader Kings II: Way of Life
  • Sword of the Stars II
  • Supreme Ruler 2020
  • Victoria 2
  • Victoria 2: A House Divided
  • Victoria 2: Heart of Darkness
  • Warlock: Master of the Arcane
  • 500k Club
  • Cities: Skylines
  • Crusader Kings II: Holy Knight (pre-order)
  • Europa Universalis IV: El Dorado
  • Europa Universalis IV: Pre-order
  • Pride of Nations
  • Sengoku
  • Pillars of Eternity
  • Europa Universalis IV: Common Sense
  • Crusader Kings II: Horse Lords
  • Cities: Skylines - After Dark
  • Europa Universalis IV: Cossacks
  • Crusader Kings II: Conclave
  • Europa Universalis IV: Mare Nostrum
  • Stellaris
  • Stellaris: Galaxy Edition
  • Stellaris: Galaxy Edition
  • Stellaris Sign-up
  • Stellaris: Nemesis
  • Europa Universalis IV
  • Crusader Kings II: Charlemagne
  • Crusader Kings II: Legacy of Rome
  • Crusader Kings II: The Old Gods
  • Crusader Kings II: Rajas of India
  • Crusader Kings II: The Republic
  • Crusader Kings II: Sons of Abraham
  • Crusader Kings II: Sunset Invasion
  • Crusader Kings II: Sword of Islam
  • Darkest Hour
  • Deus Vult
  • Europa Universalis III
  • Divine Wind
  • Crusader Kings II
  • Europa Universalis IV: Art of War
  • Europa Universalis IV: Conquest of Paradise
  • Europa Universalis IV: Wealth of Nations
  • Europa Universalis IV: Call to arms event
  • For The Glory
  • Hearts of Iron III Collection
  • Heir to the Throne
  • Europa Universalis III Complete
  • Europa Universalis III Complete
  • Europa Universalis IV: Res Publica
Germany ended up winning in 1917 with them as their secondary target. I cannot imagine anything but fantasy, aliens, or losing to the French would cause Germany putting more focus east resulting in an even slower victory there. Nicky being bumrushed even faster is going to be worse for his rule - the reasons for the war are not changing here.
There is one thing I can think of, though it's likely not been considered both due to its relative unlikeliness and as it's not directly tied to the Eastern front itself. By restricting themselves to a defensive action in the west, the Germans give the French and British forces a free hand to take the initiative. The French preserve their control over the mines, furnaces, and industry of the north that historically lay in lands occupied by the Germans, which was far from inconsiderable. Poking about, it looks like around 75% of French iron and coal was lost, and over 80% of their production of cast iron, steel, and coke. In the proposed counter-factual, all of this remains operating at full capacity for the French war effort even as they redouble their production efforts. Conversely, German industry just behind the border will become the target of French offensives aimed at relieving pressure on their Russian allies. If these offensive succeed at a bloody cost, devastating their Rhenish industrial base could slow the Germans down until they recover by building new industrial development far from the war front as the French historically did, and the Germans lack the access to the world markets that the French historically possessed. That may be, however, a bit of an outside shot. The terrain the French would need to break through just exacerbates the difficulties with the offensive already present in the war technology of the era, and as I'm not expert, I'm not sure if German concentration of mining and industry on and west of the Rhine quite matches the French concentration of industry along the coal and iron fields of the north or if the dominance of the Ruhr valley is overstated.
 

olm

Agent Provocateur
11 Badges
Aug 31, 2013
705
11.920
  • Europa Universalis IV
  • Pillars of Eternity
  • Europa Universalis IV: Common Sense
  • Hearts of Iron IV: Cadet
  • Steel Division: Normandy 44
  • Steel Division: Normandy 44 Deluxe Edition
  • Steel Division: Normand 44 Sign-up
  • Crusader Kings III
  • Crusader Kings III: Royal Edition
  • Crusader Kings II
  • Europa Universalis IV: Art of War
I think there is also question how many troops Brits would be willing to commit to the Western front if Belgium is untouched and fighting is basically just French continuously assaulting German defenses at border.
 

JodelDiplom

Field Marshal
22 Badges
Apr 5, 2013
4.512
18.524
  • Crusader Kings II: Horse Lords
  • Stellaris: Megacorp
  • Stellaris: Distant Stars
  • Stellaris: Apocalypse
  • Stellaris: Humanoids Species Pack
  • Stellaris - Path to Destruction bundle
  • Stellaris: Leviathans Story Pack
  • Stellaris: Digital Anniversary Edition
  • Stellaris
  • Crusader Kings II: Conclave
  • Crusader Kings II: Way of Life
  • Crusader Kings II: Charlemagne
  • Deus Vult
  • Crusader Kings II: Sword of Islam
  • Crusader Kings II: Sunset Invasion
  • Crusader Kings II: Sons of Abraham
  • Crusader Kings II: The Republic
  • Crusader Kings II: Rajas of India
  • Crusader Kings II: The Old Gods
  • Crusader Kings II: Legacy of Rome
  • Crusader Kings II
  • Stellaris: Synthetic Dawn
There is one thing I can think of, though it's likely not been considered both due to its relative unlikeliness and as it's not directly tied to the Eastern front itself. By restricting themselves to a defensive action in the west, the Germans give the French and British forces a free hand to take the initiative. The French preserve their control over the mines, furnaces, and industry of the north that historically lay in lands occupied by the Germans, which was far from inconsiderable. Poking about, it looks like around 75% of French iron and coal was lost, and over 80% of their production of cast iron, steel, and coke. In the proposed counter-factual, all of this remains operating at full capacity for the French war effort even as they redouble their production efforts. Conversely, German industry just behind the border will become the target of French offensives aimed at relieving pressure on their Russian allies. If these offensive succeed at a bloody cost, devastating their Rhenish industrial base could slow the Germans down until they recover by building new industrial development far from the war front as the French historically did, and the Germans lack the access to the world markets that the French historically possessed. That may be, however, a bit of an outside shot. The terrain the French would need to break through just exacerbates the difficulties with the offensive already present in the war technology of the era, and as I'm not expert, I'm not sure if German concentration of mining and industry on and west of the Rhine quite matches the French concentration of industry along the coal and iron fields of the north or if the dominance of the Ruhr valley is overstated.
The German main centers of coal and steel making were AFAIK the Ruhr, Upper Silesia, and the Saar. The Saar was really close to France in 1914, the Ruhr not so close but still within reach of a very successful offensive opening (right side of the Rhine), and upper Silesia was as far away from France as you could get.

All sides went into the war with much less munitions and weapons than one needed to fight a full scale industrial war of attrition. France lost a lot of industry but somehow managed to produce or buy the artillery and munitions they needed, Germany didn't lose any industry. Germany can't buy guns and ammunition from Britain or America so if they lose 2 of their 3 main their steel making regions then their army will certainly die a slow death from attrition like it eventually did in 1918. Morale in the army would drop once the French (and British?) achieved superiority in heavy artillery and the Germans lost theirs.

But would the French even stand a chance at getting that far? I.e. conquering the Saar and the Ruhr? I don't think there is a compelling reason to assume the Germans would or could have denuded their western front that much even if they had chosen to open the war with an offensive into Russia rather than into France.
 

Sabotage13

Break the Chains
42 Badges
Jul 24, 2013
736
674
  • Crusader Kings II
  • Stellaris - Path to Destruction bundle
  • Victoria 2: Heart of Darkness
  • Victoria 2: A House Divided
  • Europa Universalis IV: Res Publica
  • Leviathan: Warships
  • Europa Universalis IV: Wealth of Nations
  • Stellaris: Apocalypse
  • Hearts of Iron IV: Together for Victory
  • Cities: Skylines - Mass Transit
  • BATTLETECH
  • Tyranny - Bastards Wound
  • Hearts of Iron IV: Expansion Pass
  • Stellaris: Humanoids Species Pack
  • Stellaris: Digital Anniversary Edition
  • Stellaris: Distant Stars
  • Shadowrun: Dragonfall
  • Stellaris: Megacorp
  • Stellaris: Ancient Relics
  • Stellaris: Federations
  • Crusader Kings III
  • Hearts of Iron IV: No Step Back
  • Victoria 2
  • Crusader Kings II: Legacy of Rome
  • Europa Universalis IV
  • Stellaris: Leviathans Story Pack
  • Warlock 2: The Exiled
  • Cities: Skylines
  • Europa Universalis IV: Pre-order
  • Cities: Skylines - After Dark
  • Stellaris
  • Hearts of Iron IV: Cadet
  • Tyranny: Archon Edition
  • Crusader Kings II: The Old Gods
  • Crusader Kings II: Rajas of India
  • Crusader Kings II: The Republic
  • Crusader Kings II: Sons of Abraham
  • Crusader Kings II: Sword of Islam
  • Imperator: Rome
  • Hearts of Iron IV: Expansion Pass
  • Tyranny - Tales from the Tiers
  • Stellaris: Synthetic Dawn
I think actually the proficient inner terror apparatus worked well in the case of those invasions, which decadent late imperial Russia apparently lacked ;)
Imperial Russia didn't exactly lack a secret police, they were just incompetent at anything that didn't involve antisemitic conspiracy theories.
 

Director

Maestro
34 Badges
Aug 13, 2002
5.400
3.340
  • Europa Universalis IV: Rights of Man
  • Cities: Skylines
  • Cities: Skylines Deluxe Edition
  • Europa Universalis III: Collection
  • Europa Universalis IV: El Dorado
  • Europa Universalis IV: Pre-order
  • Europa Universalis IV: Common Sense
  • Europa Universalis IV: Cossacks
  • Europa Universalis IV: Mare Nostrum
  • 500k Club
  • Europa Universalis IV: Mandate of Heaven
  • Europa Universalis IV: Third Rome
  • Europa Universalis IV: Cradle of Civilization
  • Europa Universalis IV: Rule Britannia
  • Cities: Skylines - Parklife
  • Imperator: Rome Deluxe Edition
  • Imperator: Rome
  • Europa Universalis III Complete
  • Europa Universalis IV
  • Europa Universalis IV: Art of War
  • Europa Universalis IV: Conquest of Paradise
  • Europa Universalis IV: Wealth of Nations
  • Europa Universalis IV: Call to arms event
  • For the Motherland
  • Hearts of Iron III
  • Heir to the Throne
  • Europa Universalis III
  • Europa Universalis III Complete
  • Europa Universalis IV: Res Publica
  • Victoria: Revolutions
  • Semper Fi
  • Victoria 2
  • Victoria 2: A House Divided
  • Victoria 2: Heart of Darkness
I've read that Germany did have a plan for mobilization priority against Russia, along with a number of other options for various nations and situations. But von Moltke told the Kaiser there was no other choice than to mobilize against and strike first at France, for a couple of reasons. First, he knew the Kaiser would waver back and forth, leaving mobilization a muddled mess, if he had choices. Second, he assumed that France would inevitably come in on the side of Russia anyway, and likely sooner than later. Third, the German General Staff believed that Russian increases in industrialization and improvement in railroads would make them too strong to beat in the near future, so the window for decisively beating France and Russia was small. And fourth: once German mobilization started, they had to let it complete before they could shuttle troops around, and being who they were the General Staff picked the plan they wanted - the modified von Schlieffen - to take out the stronger opponent first.

So von Moltke told the Kaiser a lie.