Doomsday Consolidated China Improvement Pack

[Akaki]

I was getting exp. forces from everyone (including Iraq), not only my puppets . I just wanted to know why did that happened, and was it because of that govt. change in Japan. Hope this won't happen again though - I've added "ispuppet = no" in bunch of japanese events...

 

[Black Lotus]

What exactly is incompatible with 1.3? Can I just download CCIP and transfer your events and updated pictures to the DD folder? I'm assuming that the AI files are incompatible right?

 

[unmerged(48056)]

How could Leninism not win over in Japan? My opinion being, with the military disgraced and laundered as a failure, in addition with the Emperor as well, resulting in the Japanese Communist party launching a coup against an unpopular Japanese government and suceeding on a political basis of "Democracy, Rice, restoration of honor, friendship with China, and land reform".

Democracy.. probably because the Japanese, in themselves, were largely anti-communist and would cringe at the word communism upon hearing it.
Rice... see rice riots before WW2 and the raise of militarism
Friendship with China... is this really surprise? I would effectively try my darn best to appease China, much like Lenin did with Germany in WW1.
The last one, land reform, being true, as Japan was largely a capitalist country but dominated through a clique of corporational families that effectively held considerable amounts of industrial and farming lands.

 

[unmerged(45652)]

Hey... are you planning to release An Armageddon-CCIP? That'd be helluva work but i think it'll be worth it... especially the game will now last until 1968 yay!

 

[Tegetthoff]

Trautmann Meditaion

I don´t want to hijack Mib´s thread but this seems to be the place for China related questions.... so tell me to get off if this is not appreciated.

I want to write an event series for an early end to the Sino-Japanese war based on the Trautmann mediation in November / December 1937.

Apparently Japan asked the German ambassador to China Oskar Trautmann to negotiate an end to the "China incident" by acting as intermediary to the KMT government.

The negotiations started around the fall of Shanghai and were terminated after the Rape of Nangking, when the Japanese felt they had won and were entitled to larger concessions and the Chinese were not inclined to negotiate any longer.

The mediation centered around the "Seven Demands" which were according to what I have been able to find out (with translation into HOI2 terms):

1.) China recognises Manchukuo (loses cores on territory (?))
2.) North China to be demilitarised (Shanxi established as Japanes puppet)
3.) China to cease "anti-japanese activities" (load a new china AI that trades with Japan, set relations to 150 - 200)
4.) China to pay reparations (money and supplies transferred to Japan)
5.) China to support Anti Communist policy together with Japan (China leaves alliance and declares war on Communist China)
6.) Shanghai to be under international police control (?)
7.) ?

Does anybody here know how the mediation progressed and exactly why it failed? Apparently there were negotiations into January 1938.
What terms were particularly unacceptable to the Chinese and how would a peace proposal look that was acceptable to China prior to the fall of Nangking?

The event series will probably evolve around either holding back on the conquest of Nangking or avoiding the Rape of Nangking using the CCIP modified event.

This event series may be interesting to a JAP player to a CHC player, who after the event will be very, very alone ...

So, any help is greatly appreciated

Thanks

T.

 

[ozman2]

Re: Trautmann
I was not there but if I try to put myself into a position of being a pragmatic Chinese negotiator the package you described above would have zero percent acceptance probability from the Chinese point of view. Particulary bad are two items: 1) making the Chinese pay an indemnity would have bankrupted them and that proposal alone would probably solidify their desire to fight rather than negotiate. (Dogs tend to bite when backed into a corner). Plus it would be a symbolic acceptance of responsibility (a losing face issue). 2) One of the basic principles of negotiating is that you have to give back some territory conquered so the territorial demands would not fly.

A package that is more reasonable could be this--1) Chinese recognition of Manchukuo in return for Japanese return of all territories captured 2) some form of alliance, either outright or Japanese military access in order to fight Communist China and also take out Sheng Shicai's state (Sheng was at the time very friendly to the SU, and a CPSU member). 3) Instead of the the Japanese Shanxi puppet, China gets the Shanxi area (Chiang benefits in his war against the warlords). In real life the Japanese side probably would not have accepted this.

Still, I would give China only a 5% acceptance chance and only if Japan captures Nanjing and chooses not to commit the Nanjing massacre. Although I think Chiang (Mr. "Japanese are a disease of the skin") may have been amenable to that package, other Chinese would not, especially Manchurian exiles and those who actually favored alliance with Communists, because they felt an alliance with either the CPC or the SU would help them in their own power struggles. A likely result of that deal would be that China would find itself at war with all the warlords. One example of a warlord who felt he needed the Communists was Sheng Shicai. Without Soviet assistance, it is very likely Xinjiang would have become an independent Afghanistan-like regime, and permanently detached from the Chinese orbit.

What most people don't realize is that there were two parties involved that had nothing to lose and everything to gain from continuation of the war: 1) the Chinese Communists 2) the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union was deadly afraid of a triple alliance of China, Japan and Germany and would have done everything in its power to sabotage this.

On the other hand, your deal would fly if there was no United Front. But in that case Japan can easily conquer and puppet China, automatically causing the warlords to fold without a fight, so what would be the point?

This is my own opinion but I think Japan was intentionally unreasonable in the Trautman negotiations because they wanted Germany to quit arming China.

Also such a deal should cause dissent in Japan, as its military people would feel shafted. In summary, make the deal as follows: 1) cede former Shanxi area to China 2) otherwise white peace 3) military alliance 4) load ai's for China and Japan that are more friendly. In order for the event to fire, Japan has to conquer Nanjing but not carry our the Nanjing massacre. Acceptance chance by China-- 5%. Japan dissent +10. Also try to guess the Soviet Union's likely response and write some additional events for Anti-Comintern pact (if it has not occured) and Tripartite pacts so that China gets included.
Likely Soviet response is a northern alliance involving Communist China, Xinjiang and Xibei San Ma (forced submission of XSM--rather complicated but the SU had already penetrated the Ma clan). Long Yun and Li Zongren (both defected to the CPC in real life) might also at that point be interested in dealing with the Soviets. Mongolia also has some cores on Manchukuo and Chinese lands.

While you're at it you might want to code the possibility of a Japan-Germany-China alliance if Japan chooses not to make war in the Marco Polo incident.
Best of luck.

 

[Tegetthoff]

Nomonhan,

Thanks for the input, I will consider it in my events.

It is definitely a good idea to require the Fall of Nangking and avoiding the Rape of Nanking for any deal to fly.

I am trying to find the historical references because negotiations along those lines were made and failed in late 1937 / 1938. Apparently the Japanese requested more demands after the fall of Nangking and this caused the failure of the negotiations.

From what I have read, the Japanese wanted a quick war in China and were mainly concerned regarding a puppet Shanxi so this is the thing they would not abandon.

A German-brokered alliance of China and Japan and/or a common fight against Communist China is a possible outcome that I am considering. Your Information on Xinjiang is greatly appreciated there.

I am trying to make the China war very hard to win for Japan, as it was historically and have coded partisan events that fire depending on provinces occupied. So the more provinces you occupy the more partisan events (which destroy supplies and manpower) you will get.

Some links that I am basing my ideas on:

Very thorough, deals with lots of other things, too:
http://musingsofcorsonf.blogspot.com/

The references to the negotiations are in the middle of this article:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Konoe

Actually everything I want to know is in this Questia article, but I would have to pay to read it and am trying to get around it ;-) (Chapter III)
http://www.questia.com/PM.qst?a=o&d=4900640

And something very rudimentary here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Articles_for_creation/2006-04-02#Trautmann_Mediation

Regards

T.

 

[ozman2]

I believe the state the Japanese wanted recognized was Mengjiang (Mengkukuo) not Shanxi. This was unacceptable to both China and the Soviet Union. Probably the sticking point for China was the concession of any territory to Japan. I don't think the militarists in Japan would have accepted peace terms likely to be accepted by the Chinese. I read the article. It's an interesting read. Anyway if you decide to have such an event, it should somehow trigger something similar to event 3507 of the CCIP--"Nationalist China Surrenders, Communist China stays in the fight". Perhaps it could be an alternate trigger for that event. Now what if Germany and China became formally allied following the Nanjing Massacre? John Rabe actually requested that Hitler intervene against Japan.

 

[Tegetthoff]

I believe the state the Japanese wanted recognized was Mengjiang (Mengkukuo) not Shanxi. This was unacceptable to both China and the Soviet Union. Probably the sticking point for China was the concession of any territory to Japan. I don't think the militarists in Japan would have accepted peace terms likely to be accepted by the Chinese. I read the article. It's an interesting read. Anyway if you decide to have such an event, it should somehow trigger something similar to event 3507 of the CCIP--"Nationalist China Surrenders, Communist China stays in the fight". Perhaps it could be an alternate trigger for that event. Now what if Germany and China became formally allied following the Nanjing Massacre? John Rabe actually requested that Hitler intervene against Japan.

Yes, it was Mengkukuo and not Manchukuo.

From reading the articles, it seems that the Japanese were quite anxious in late 1937 to end the war. All we know for sure was that they did no succeed but apparently Japan broke of the negotiations in January 1938 and not China.

My new take on the "Seven Demands" as raised in November 1937 and how to translate them into HOI terms:

1.) Peace
2.) Recognise Mengukuo: Kepp MEN in existance if it exists
3.) Shanghai to be under international police control: - 1 IC in Shanghai, since China´s ability to produce military goods in Shanghai is limited, maby +1IC to Japan since they dominate the Shanghai trade
4.) Northern China to be dimilitarised: Shanxi to be a Japanese ally or puppet.
5.) Cease anti-Japanese activities: load friendly AIs for Japan and China
6.) Common fight against communism: Chinese Civil war resumes, JAP stays in war with CHC, probably fire correct event chain in CCIP or write a new one, with Xibei being forced into the communist orbit, Singkiang joining forces with CHC as per Nomonhan´s post, Soviet support to CHC and - probably - a war between JAP and SOV soon after
7.) No reparations but reduction of customs duties: Some IC for Japan due to better access to China markets

Unfortunately, real life is keeping me from doing the coding, but let´s hope ...

 

[Cyrus Spitama]

Mib, I do apologize for not ever pursuing my dream of uniting CCIP and DAIM but, I see others took my idea and ran with it ( I am not claiming solo right to this idea). School, work, and RL have a way of interfering with any gaming as of late. Hope this project is still your well cared for pet and you have plans for a 1.3a and/or Armageddon version or are you too busy playing EUIII ?

 

[ozman2]

1.) Peace
2.) Recognise Mengukuo: Kepp MEN in existance if it exists
3.) Shanghai to be under international police control: - 1 IC in Shanghai, since China´s ability to produce military goods in Shanghai is limited, maby +1IC to Japan since they dominate the Shanghai trade
4.) Northern China to be dimilitarised: Shanxi to be a Japanese ally or puppet.
5.) Cease anti-Japanese activities: load friendly AIs for Japan and China
6.) Common fight against communism: Chinese Civil war resumes, JAP stays in war with CHC, probably fire correct event chain in CCIP or write a new one, with Xibei being forced into the communist orbit, Singkiang joining forces with CHC as per Nomonhan´s post, Soviet support to CHC and - probably - a war between JAP and SOV soon after
7.) No reparations but reduction of customs duties: Some IC for Japan due to better access to China markets

China would not accept as written. Here's something they might accept, but only 1% chance I believe: Shanxi a Chinese puppet but allow JAP military access so Japan can carry on its war against Communist China through Shanxi territory.
As you hinted, it would affect the overall war picture. Thus the followup may be beyond the scope of CCIP, so why not follow up in my own thread. Specifically I think:
1)Japan would be more likely to use the Nomonhan event to DOW the Soviet Union.
2) USSR might not be interested in Ribbentrop-Molotov (which unleashed Germany on the west), and might instead ask Britain and France to pressure the Poles to allow Soviet military access in Poland.
3) Soviets can use either Chasan Lake or Nomonhan incident for a DOW against Japan

http://forum.paradoxplaza.com/forum/showthread.php?t=289551

 

[Tegetthoff]

China would not accept as written. Here's something they might accept, but only 1% chance I believe: Shanxi a Chinese puppet but allow JAP military access so Japan can carry on its war against Communist China through Shanxi territory.
As you hinted, it would affect the overall war picture. Thus the followup may be beyond the scope of CCIP, so why not follow up in my own thread. Specifically I think:
1)Japan would be more likely to use the Nomonhan event to DOW the Soviet Union.
2) USSR might not be interested in Ribbentrop-Molotov (which unleashed Germany on the west), and might instead ask Britain and France to pressure the Poles to allow Soviet military access in Poland.
3) Soviets can use either Chasan Lake or Nomonhan incident for a DOW against Japan

http://forum.paradoxplaza.com/forum/showthread.php?t=289551

Thanks for playing the Devils´advocate to my ideas!

I do not see Chinese acceptance to peace as anything that unlikely. It depends on the speed of conquest (which was slower than anticipated by the Japanese) and the severity of the terms.

According to what I have pieced together (with some extra help from the German wikipedia):

* Japan offered terms to China on Nov.5, 1937, along the lines of: Common fight against communism, cessation of "anti-Japanese avtivities", recognition of Manchukuo (sic.)
* China initially refused but accepted by Dec. 2. However, since Japan was by then advancing on Nangking, the now demanded "demilitarisation of Inner Mongolia and Northern China" as well
* After the Fall and Rape of Nangking, Japan seems to have raised the demands to include continued occupation of some areas.
* The negotiations continued into January and were broken off by the Japanese.

So the Japanese always asked for more than the Chinese were prepared to give based on the actual military progress, which was significant but less than hoped for due to the strong Chinese resistance.

Different Japanese requests and / or different speed of Japanese advance would have had a good chance of achieving a solution.

Since the mediation failed historically, it should fail in a game where history is repeated. However, moderate Japanese demands or quicker Japanese miliatry success - always without a Rape of Nangking - should enable a peace solution.

 

[ozman2]

So you're saying that the Japanese could have had peace if they asked for recognition of Manchukuo, no territorial gains and an alliance against Communist China. Is that about right?
Actually that might have fallen apart over Mengkukuo (Mengjiang), so perhaps it should only happen if Japan has not set them up.
The other consideration is whether China has forged a United Front. They did historically but in games they don't always. If they don't have a United Front then acceptance chance should be much higher, and Japan might be able to gain some territory.
Also there should be +10 dissent for Japan. Japan had a history of alleging that the "politicians sold out the military" that goes back to 1895. Also Japan had people like Richard Sorge and Ozaki Hotsumi egging them on.

 

[Tegetthoff]

So you're saying that the Japanese could have had peace if they asked for recognition of Manchukuo, no territorial gains and an alliance against Communist China. Is that about right?
Actually that might have fallen apart over Mengkukuo (Mengjiang), so perhaps it should only happen if Japan has not set them up.
The other consideration is whether China has forged a United Front. They did historically but in games they don't always. If they don't have a United Front then acceptance chance should be much higher, and Japan might be able to gain some territory.
Also there should be +10 dissent for Japan. Japan had a history of alleging that the "politicians sold out the military" that goes back to 1895. Also Japan had people like Richard Sorge and Ozaki Hotsumi egging them on.

Of course at the end one still has to code the whole thing. My current sketch of the event series involves six timer events to check wether the Japanese are doing well or not so well plus about 18 events to fire the negotiations, inform the players what is happening and setting up the results, with three different peace proposals (currently called 8 Demands, 7 Demands and 6 Demands) and six different probabilities of China accepting, not taking into account a revised "CHC" fights on series ...

Well, it is interesting that playing a game turns into A) going back to computer programming and B) learning a lot about history.

I guess at some point I just will have to cough up the 100$ for the 1 year questia account and read up on what happened during the Trautmann mediation.

Regards

T.

 

[semihippie]

My College's library has two copies of the book- I could scan the relevant chapters if you want me to. Much cheaper than $100.

 

[ozman2]

My current sketch of the event series involves six timer events to check wether the Japanese are doing well or not so well plus about 18 events to fire the negotiations, inform the players what is happening and setting up the results, with three different peace proposals (currently called 8 Demands, 7 Demands and 6 Demands) and six different probabilities of China accepting, not taking into account a revised "CHC" fights on series ...

I'm not interested in that level of complexity. Here's what I'll do, If Japan does NOT establish Mengkukuo, AND captures Nanjing AND does NOT commit the Nanjing massacre (this is enough historicity check since Japan violated two conditions IRL) I'll fire Trautman mediation to present Chinese with peace terms that include an alliance against Communist China (no point for Japan to cough up all that land without an alliance) on the basis of
-NO territorial gain for either side (white peace)
-No Mengkukuo
-Japan dissent +10% (the militarists are enraged despite the practicality)
-absorbed Shanxi territory ceded to Nationalist China
-friendly AIs for both enabling trade and technology exchange
-military alliance but no puppetry
-China drops cores on Manchukuo (recognition)
-sleep the event series of pressuring Germany to recognize Manchukuo. (Falkenhausen stays in a voluntary China-Japan alliance)
-Falkenhausen slept from German army.
-Allow China to get United China event without Manchuria (modify triggers to allow China to get event with recovery of Mongolia in lieu of Manchuria)
-write alternative event for R-M agreement (Perhaps 50% chance Soviet German Pact would not be signed. Soviet Union signs agreement with West guaranteeing Poland's security and gets military access in Poland-Germany calls off invasion of Poland
-increase AI chance for Japan to declare war over Nomonhan incident.
-form the Communist China-Xibei-Xinjiang alliance if other conditions are met.
-Include China in Tripartite event
There's a lot of coding to deal with the consequences
Japan's chance of proposing this (AI)-1%
Chinese chance of acceptance (AI)--60% I think Chiang would have gone for that deal but nothing is certain in alternative history.
With all that you have a nice alternate history.

If you want a more complex event I suggest starting your own thread.

 

[Tegetthoff]

My College's library has two copies of the book- I could scan the relevant chapters if you want me to. Much cheaper than $100.

Hey, great, that´s exactly what I hoped for. I assume it is no more than a couple of pages.

Can you put this up on some fileserver?

Thanks

T.

 

[Tegetthoff]

.... Here's what I'll do,....

With all that you have a nice alternate history.

If you want a more complex event I suggest starting your own thread.

Looks like we now might have two versions of alternate history within the community, which is just the way it should be. I assume you will put it in your mod (Liberator, isn´t it) or are you involved in CCIP?

I have just switched from modding CORE to modding CCIP.

I´ll code up my version and we can compare the results. Unfortunately, real life take precedence at the moment.

Regards

T.

 

[Tegetthoff]

My College's library has two copies of the book- I could scan the relevant chapters if you want me to. Much cheaper than $100.

Hi again,

If you have access to a library, can you try and check the following reference:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0363-6917(194902)8:2<157:GMITSW>2.0.CO;2-H

Thanks

T.

 

[mib]

Some very interesting discussion up there...

Anyway it makes no sense to update to 1.3a when "A" is coming out on the 29th... and it's only 5 bucks, which I've saved up by deciding not to buy C&C3 Kane Edition...