By your own facts, the Axis win a preponderance of the time. The disparity is so large that I've found it frustrating to play a minor power because I have no meaningful way to impact the game short of going for world conquest. Ideally the game should be balanced enough that all three factions have an equal chance of winning without human intervention. With a human player, the outcome should tilt based on difficulty and the faction played. Crushing victory if the human plays a major, significant tactical shift if the human plays a minor.
Right now a human playing a minor, again assuming you don't try and conquer the world which I don't enjoy doing since I want to remain within the realm of possibility when I play, can either ride the Axis the coatails, go down in flames with the Allies, or pray that the Russians get that 30% chance of getting their act together. Case in point, in a recent game as Sweden I joined the Allies and bled significant German MP, say 75. My hope was either that Sweden and Denmark could be used as an invasion platform, didn't happen, or that I could indirectly help the Soviets. Problem was the Allies are too dumb and the Soviets lost the war before 1941 ended.