Do you think Germany could have won ww2?

[Dinsdale]

Originally posted by Copper Nicus
Intelligence... Again, now we know. But what was known in 1941? We talk about intelligence here - usually reports of their sources differ. It's easy to say - "agents warned...", but we don't talk about others, who doesn't warned or even confirmed, that Sealion will start in 1941.

That's a little too convenient, especially as one agent within the Luftwaffe gave a report which only wishful thinking could possibly have not interpreted as a Barbarossa warning. That was one of many sources, all saying the same thing.

If in 50's or 60's someone wrote, that Hitler was right that Stalin is preparing attack, unlucky historian would get "nazi-lover" sticker.

But not in the West. It would have fit in nicely with post-war realignment if any evidence of a preemptive Soviet attack could be have been found, but the only source remains Suvorov.

I think it is an interesting theory, but some of the facts Suvarov uses are comical. The BT Tank theory for one does not belong within the realms of history, but rather and early conspiracy theory.

It's been nearly 13 years without effective corroboration, and I think only the convenience of the message (communism=bad) keeps Suvorov seperate from other controversial historians such as Irving, though that is the company he really should be classified with.

 

[unmerged(5120)]

The Red Army's deployment in 1941 was much more suited for offensive operations than defensive ones, with the (very important) provision that most of the Tank and Mech divs were seriously understrength and most of the artillery lacked tractors.

By spring 1942 those units would have been up to strength with T-34's and KV's.

Based on this, my opinion is Stalin wanted to be ready to attack by 1942. It's consistent with both his delusions about Hitler's intents (since HE was the one who actually had an offensive mindset in his own eyes it may have blinded him about the Germans' options) and the Red Army's stance.

Not to mention Soviet military doctrine had a very, very strong offensive bend.

 

[unmerged(14683)]

We probably should change thread, there are still lots guys who want to talk about BEF...

That will be long one... And BTW, sorry for my poor grammar.

Ok, so let's stick to your thesis, that Soviet Army in 1941 was there for defence puroposes. So why they were so shocked by German attack? Don't you think, that there is some serious conflict - you say that Stalin ignored warnings, BUT at the same time was deploing army for defence?

Also - why he ignored bad news of intelligence? Well, in august 1939 polish intelligence aquired full plans of Wermacht deployment along their borders. Polish HQ was aware of that - yet they believed, that Hitler won't start full scale campaign, but only take Danzig and all the forces are only as a force demonstration. Why? Because humans always believe in better scenarios, not the worst ones. I know - Stalin hardy fits the definition of human, but still...

Suvorov teory is not so popular because it says that "communism=bad". It is because we still don't have good explanation of 1941 events. All the fuzz about purges can't counter the fact, that Soviet Army in june 1941 was much better equipped, trained and supported than in following 1,5 year. At the end of 1941 Red Army lost most of it's eqiupment, commanders and consisted mostly of reserves. 1941 we know is just a flash in soviet propaganda, and disbelief in memories of german commanders - Germans were autentically shocked by the size and equipment of Soviet forces.

I don't understand, what is so "conspirational" in BT tank. Most part of military eqiupment is created to some specifications given by army/ministry of defence/whatever. Sometimes this specifications could result in name of project (like "Ural bomber"). BT was created according to the specifiations denying the fact, that in USSR tere was not enough roads for wheeled tanks. Later BT was modified, (BT-7M was petty much ready for USSR terrain, but it's succesors was ready to production), but Suvorov tried to find reason, why BT tank, after all the trials and tests was send to production after all.

And one more thing - why not earlier? Because losing side is always wrong, especially if it commited as much crimes and atrocities as 3rd Reich. Western historians had two sources - german memories and archives (more important) and soviet official "history". German memories from 50's and 60's are one big denial of fact, that german generals served Hitler. It was mostly Hitler's idea, that Stalin is going to attack him - generals were against two-front war (same like in 1939). I didn't find in any book of german general a word about it, that in 1939 Hitler judged situatuation better then them. Similarly, in 1941 - if anyone of them wrote, that Hitler was right, he would automatically be sticked as Nazi. About intelligence - Abwehr in USSR was deaf and blind, that's all. Also important fact is, that in 1941 Germans had long history of lies about reasons of their military actions. Sudetenland, Chechoslovakia, polish attack on Glivitzen Radio, Belgium... When in 1941 they said, that Soviets were preparing the attack, who would believe them? This thesis was put between other Goebels lies. And it stayed there for over 50 years.

Soviet sources - after 4 years of war almost all veterans of 1941 were dead. POW's were send to Siberia, and memories... have you ever read Zukov's? Pure propaganda (part about wargame before the war is particulary fun).

Conclussion - Suvorov is not Irving.

 

[Halibutt]

Originally posted by Copper Nicus
(...)Soviet sources - after 4 years of war almost all veterans of 1941 were dead. POW's were send to Siberia, and memories... have you ever read Zukov's? Pure propaganda (part about wargame before the war is particulary fun).(...)

AAMOF we don't even know who did write the Zhukovs memoirs...
Cheers

 

[unmerged(14689)]

Sorry, I suggest you read Zhukovs memoires in the new version, WITHOUT the Soviet censors having a field day. The 10th print in Russian was the full version as Zhukov wrote it, and he really kicks ass, almost a whole chapter about the purges for example. It should also be availible in English.

May I remind you of the fact that Zhukov didn´t even want to call the memoires that hit the shelfs in the USSR his own work? You can´t blame him for all contents in the previous prints. Sure, there are parts in the book we would call propaganda now, but for Zhukov it was the world he had grown up in, fighting in the Civil War and all. He was the son of a poor peasant, the Bolshevik Revolution gave him a change to become a Marshal of the SU. Can´t blame him for believing in the laws of nature as he saw them.

 

[unmerged(14683)]

Sorry, I didn't read this version. Does it still contain legend about wargame won by Zukov (as Germany) against Red Army (and no consequences of that)? Does it still contain OOB counting only "new model tanks and planes"?

If it's not, then it's worth reading.

I'll have to search for it on net...

 

[unmerged(14689)]

Zhukov does speak about the wargame against Pavlov, but I also heard versions that there were two games (Check Cynthia Roberts). One time Zhukov commanded "the Soviets" and one time "the Germans". He won both wargames. Pavlov got a taste of defeat that he wasn´t gonna lose for the rest of his (short) live...

About OOB with only new model tanks and planes I´m not sure (I´m at work now, can´t go running to check the memoires ).

But, please, read the chapter about the purges. Zhukov himself nearly got removed too! Interesting stuff! More than the one (!!!)crappy line in the Soviet version...

 

[Dinsdale]

Coppernicus,

Both the GRU and KGB were far more advanced in human assets than Polish intelligence. They also had multiple sources reporting the imminent invasion. IMHO I think the Poles misinterpretation of German intentions is a little different, Stalin had the chance to see the results of the German army, in 1939 the idea of total war might have been easy to dismiss, but not in 1941.

Further, where is the abwehr intelligence which might have warned Hitler of an impending attack? If Stalin really was preparing attack then there must be documents somewhere that the Germans were gathering intellingence of Russian plans.

I would also say that the Red Army being defeated in 1941 is not too different than France in 1940. Defending through rapid and early counter-attacks might have seemed the most sensible thing to do at the time.

The BT theory is really stretching reality though. Concluding that the Soviets were preparing for invasion simply because one tank class could potentialy move faster on roads is more than a little tenous.

I just think that a theory as revolutionary as Suvorovs should have corroboration before it is taken seriously. It is a fascinating story though, and one I fear we will never truly know.

 

[unmerged(5120)]

Originally posted by Suvorov
Zhukov does speak about the wargame against Pavlov, but I also heard versions that there were two games (Check Cynthia Roberts). One time Zhukov commanded "the Soviets" and one time "the Germans". He won both wargames. Pavlov got a taste of defeat that he wasn´t gonna lose for the rest of his (short) live...

The two wargames are mentioned with some detail in Erickson's The Road to Stalingrad, published in 1975.

 

[Tim O]

Possible but highly unlikely.

 

[unmerged(5120)]

Originally posted by Timothy Ortiz
Possible but highly unlikely.

Pick up a copy in a bookshop and see for yourself - its in the intro.

 

[Tim O]

I was just answering the original question about Germany's chance of winning the war. Now that I've read the thread I find these wargame stories to be quite interesting. Do you know what strategy he used to win as the Germans?

 

[unmerged(14683)]

Originally posted by Timothy Ortiz
I was just answering the original question about Germany's chance of winning the war. Now that I've read the thread I find these wargame stories to be quite interesting. Do you know what strategy he used to win as the Germans?

Well, in "his" memories he used exactly the same operation idea as Germans.
Sorry, but for me this story is just another "quasi-Nostradamo" - after all events comes a guy and says "You see? I was telling that from the start...".
Soviet history had the same sort of story about Tuchachevsky - he "propheted" war with Germany in 1941.

 

[unmerged(14689)]

Tukhachevsky, like Zhukov, had his flaws, but the main charactaristic future of the coming war they both grasped: combined operations by all branches of the armed forces with a big role for armoured units.

The USSR was the first country to form a mechanized army unit (in 1932) and experimented with the use of tanks on the battlefield sometimes much like the Wehrmacht did. However, there were forces within the Red Army (Voroshilov, Kulik) that didn't believe the tank could play a big, independent role on the battlefield. In 1937 Tukhachevsky (the main "sponsor" of the tank weapon) became the first victim of the purges in the Red Army and the notion of armoured units was set aside. The Soviets used tanks as the French did: as support for the infantry, not concentrated in powerful armoured fists like the Germans did. In 1940, after the disasters of the Finnish campaign, the Soviets reinstituted the armoured corpses, but too much time had been lost. German tactical experience and operational art were by that time much more advanced.

Still, in 1939 Zhukov, commanding the Soviet forces at Khalkhin Gol, showed the Japanese what he was capable of. His victory was the result of superb coordination of armour, infantry, artillery and the air weapon.

It would go too far to state they "foresaw" everything, but the essence of the coming conflict was not a secret to Tukhachevsky and Zhukov.

 

[unmerged(14683)]

I could not agree more - I'm just amazed how proven (by famous wargame or by Tuchachevsky reports) inability of USSR to defend itself resulted in development of more agressive weapons and tactics in Wehrmacht style.
I don't try to say that Zukov was not capable comander (let leave Tuchachewsky alone for now) or his conception of use modern warfare equipment was wrong - I just say that all the "wargame" story looks too good to be true.

 

[unmerged(14689)]

Maybe this wargame story does sound quite incredible, but both Roberts and Erickson (and maybe others I don't know of) payed mauch attention to this wargame. Especially Erickson had good access to Soviet sources and he doesn't seem to question Zhukovs memoires on this point. Of course, we'll never know for sure, but some credits should go to Zhukov based on what we DO know.

He did, for example, forsee the main German blow in the center, just like Shaposhnikov did. However, Stalin believed the Ukraine would be Hitlers main target (because of bread, coal and, further east, oil). In this, he has been proven right and this is well documented, not only by Zhukov himself.

 

[unmerged(14683)]

Originally posted by Suvorov
Stalin believed the Ukraine would be Hitlers main target (because of bread, coal and, further east, oil). In this, he has been proven right and this is well documented, not only by Zhukov himself.

I thought that Stalin didn't believe in Germans attack at all? All sources confirms that. So - he believed in attack on Ukraine OR didn't believed in Barbarossa?
As you can see, sources about 1941 are a bit contradictory.

Again - I don't deny that Zukov (and Rokossowski, Timoszenko, Watutin, Koniew and many more...) was capable and effective commander. But if in USSR any western historian got access to Soviet documents you could be sure, that they were carefully sorted and prepared for him. I belive now it changed, but during Cold War... sorry, I can't buy it.

 

[Dinsdale]

Originally posted by Copper Nicus
Again - I don't deny that Zukov (and Rokossowski, Timoszenko, Watutin, Koniew and many more...) was capable and effective commander. But if in USSR any western historian got access to Soviet documents you could be sure, that they were carefully sorted and prepared for him. I belive now it changed, but during Cold War... sorry, I can't buy it.

Yes, one would think that the post Cold War world would have resulted in a flood of new analysis. Perhaps many of the original sources were destroyed, Stalin was quite good at "tidying" up loose ends.

The only "new" data I have seen is Suvarov, and a History Channel documentary (which did not give references to it's claims) with two nuggets; More than 1 million red army deaths in Stalingrad, and Stalin's tentative attempts to make peace with Germany in 1941.

One would have thought that historians would be camped in Russia examining documents, but it doesn't seem to have happened yet.

 

[Halibutt]

Originally posted by Dinsdale
(...)One would have thought that historians would be camped in Russia examining documents, but it doesn't seem to have happened yet.

Whatever one may say or think about all the books by Suvorov, it seems somehow credible that the vast majority of the post-soviet archives remain closed.
Cheers

 

[unmerged(14689)]

1. About those deaths at Stalingrad, that wasn't a secret. It was already known in the USSR.

2. The fact that so little new info has come out of the opened Soviet archives is partly due, probably, to Western laziness (or the huge amount of material?) Anyone here know who Volkogonov is? It's a Russian (post-Soviet!) historian who worked in the archives of the Soviet defence ministery, i.e. he worked in a gold mine! His parents were killed by Stalin (this should keep future critics from calling him a Stalinist) and he wrote a few very good, critical works about Soviet leaders, among others Lenin, Trotsky and Stalin. Volkogonovs style of writing is somewhat chaotic, but he did (he died a few years ago) manage to open up a lot of new info to the world. He is very critical of Stalin, but doesn't say anything about a Soviet attack against Germany. His works have been translated in English (and, for the speakers of that other world wide spoken language , even in Dutch I believe)

And to Copper Nicus. Stalin DID expect a German invasion, but only in 1942. The plans for a defence were made earlier, that's not so strange. Shaposhnikov, chief of staff until August or September 1940, was the main author of the original plan, planning to concentrate the main body of the Red Army in the center. This plan was changed according to Stalin's wishes, i.e. more men were allocated to the defence of the south, because Stalin figured that Hitler would choose to strike mainly at the Ukraine with coal and oil being vital to Germany's war industry.