Interesting question Peter.
I think the lower number of manufactories is caused by a combination of several factors.
Several players are scared by inflation, as you say.
Changing players does mean that longterm investment is reduced.
There have been several wars where the losing nation(s) have been completely beaten and manufactories have burned, even when the victors have been lenient in the following peace.
You haven't picked up on what I consider the biggest factor. Although no players are incompetent, by any means, there is still a big mixture of experience in DU. The players who have played a lot of MP and who really shouldn't be scared of inflation, are mostly warmongers who are good at diplomacy, particularly Redphoenix and Damocles. When they switch to a country, they spend much of the time in expansionist wars. The only player I'm sure is not scared of inflation and is more of an economist is Archduke. Most of his cash has been going on conversions, but he has built several manufactories in the last few turns.
I think the lower number of manufactories is caused by a combination of several factors.
Several players are scared by inflation, as you say.
Changing players does mean that longterm investment is reduced.
There have been several wars where the losing nation(s) have been completely beaten and manufactories have burned, even when the victors have been lenient in the following peace.
You haven't picked up on what I consider the biggest factor. Although no players are incompetent, by any means, there is still a big mixture of experience in DU. The players who have played a lot of MP and who really shouldn't be scared of inflation, are mostly warmongers who are good at diplomacy, particularly Redphoenix and Damocles. When they switch to a country, they spend much of the time in expansionist wars. The only player I'm sure is not scared of inflation and is more of an economist is Archduke. Most of his cash has been going on conversions, but he has built several manufactories in the last few turns.