I don't know about the USSR "scraping the barrel". it seems to me that even without a third front opening (don't forget Italy), The USSR would have still won the war. It would have taken longer, and it would have been bloodier and more brutal than it was (and that's saying a lot) but yeah, they would have done it. Don't forget that as eastern European states were "liberated" by the Soviets, many of their forces would change sides. Which likely would have been enough (?). This would have ended with all of Europe right up to the English channel under Communist rule (or Fascist, in Spain). And Britain shortly after - with Soviet France just twenty miles away - would likely have had to become a Soviet puppet. So Yeah, D-Day was most certainly required to prevent THAT.D-Day wasn't "required", per se, in the first place. The war would have been won on all fronts by the Soviet Union, regardless of D-Day or operation downfall.
The only reason we opened a second front was because the USSR was scraping the barrel with manpower, and also we knew that we wouldn't be best buddies with them for long after the war and didn't want a communist-dominated Europe.
If there is no eastern front (either because the Germans won it, never engaged in it, or allied with the soviets) then they've most likely nearly won the war at this point.
But I think for us Brits it was also a matter of pride; as worn out as we were - certainly by 1945 - we had begun the war to oppose Germany, we'd hung on through all the long hard years, despite all that was thrown at us (hell, there wouldn't have even been a D-Day if we hadn't), and damn it we were going to see it through to the end.
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