Danzing or War: Danzing ? Should this be possible?

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Phalanxia

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The thesis of Adam Tooze's "The Wages of Destruction" is that Germany would have gone bankrupt sooner rather than later, if they had not started the war. They needed the plunder of the central banks, the access to the raw materials, and there were some additional benefits that we are not supposed to discuss on this forum, that drove the need to attack.

This lack of economic pressure is what missing from the HOI series, partially due to the ability of pre-war stockpiling, and partially to prevent cheesy strategies in multi-player, where Germany is boycotted from day 1.

Germany simply has to go to war, sooner rather than later, or its economy will collapse. A more or less identical situation exists for Japan.

Isn't the economic thesis kinda discredited though as confusing cause and effect? The plunder of the war sustained Germany economically, but there isn't much evidence suggesting that political leaders saw conquest as a way out of Germany's forthcoming economic reckoning, at least in 1939 IIRC. This is on contrast to Japan where we have loads of stuff indicating that they were desperate for raw materials thanks to the US embargo.

Germany in 1939 had 99% employment and its industrial output became 2-nd largest in the world slightly behind USA( in 1933 it was 8 places below).

Right, but the economy was overheating by 1939, and was already suffering serious capital flight due to the interest rates kept forcibly low by the government to stimulate growth. Germany would have simply ran out of money way before 1943.

Today ,under expertise that is, is a home movie filmed by Eva Braun in 1939 that seems to show the moment Hitler received diplomatic reply from British that they will not allow Danzig to be returned to Germany. Hitler was furious. movie is silent but lip-reader experts discovered he said something like: "Idiots, do they understand this means Dissaster for all." This will imply Hitler at least at the time of Danzig was not ready to start all out war.

Interesting, but do you have a link to that? I had a quick look on Google but couldn't find anything relating to Eva Braun and Danzing.
 

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I think the next thing that would happen would be Germany demanding Polish part of Silesia, perhaps via a referendum that they would proceed to manipulate. The result would then probably be war or a coup d'etat in Poland (with Poland becoming a puppet and giving up land to Germany and the Soviets if the coup were successful or a war if it weren't).
 

Mamluke

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interesting conversation! always wonder how things could have gone if dazing was handed over.

all of you are talking about Germany, sure you guys don´t forget about Belorussian? Im pretty sure the Soviets wanted that land back, I doubt the Allies would ever agree to it...

how plausible you guys think it would be for Poland to make a deal with the SU? they would hand over (partially maybe) Belorussia, in exchange for protection (and other goodies I guess)? I mean, when you are boxed in between 2 World super powers, you don´t have the luxury to be "demanding".

the way I see it, if Danzig was handed over to Poland, the Poles would "force" Germany to sign a deal, like peace in our time kind of ting instead this time the Germans would Promise on International level that Germany would respect the borders for good. and the poles would make the world know about this! meaning that Germany would no longer have the "Danzig!" Casus belie, Im sure the nazi goverment would try all they could to take the rest of Poland, but they already have Danzig. they promised to respect Poland territorial Integrity. not eve the Nazis would be such dicks would they? :ninja:

seriously what do you guys think?
 

mvsnconsolegene

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There would still be war, mein kampf and Molotov-ribentropt pact are undeniable proofs.

Yes. Firstly, events from 1934 through 1939 should prove to even the most gentle and trusting of souls (even Chamberlain!) that treaties with Hitler were useless.

Secondly, the strength of the German economy was a myth. Yes, employment was very high and production was souring, but the cost of that to the treasury was enormous and not sustainable. Germany in 1939 was on the brink of the financial bubble bursting and don't think that didn't factor into how aggressive the regime was.

- CG
 
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EmperorTojo

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If anyone thinks germany would have been satisfied with Danzig they are as much of an optimist as Chamberlain in '38. Just look at the Czechs. its basically the same situation playing again, but this time Britain doesnt pussy out.

Pretty much my opinion. It would be Danzig first, then Silesia, then etc, etc.. And like Czechoslovakia, they would have annexed non-german populated regions just the same.

I think the next thing that would happen would be Germany demanding Polish part of Silesia, perhaps via a referendum that they would proceed to manipulate. The result would then probably be war or a coup d'etat in Poland (with Poland becoming a puppet and giving up land to Germany and the Soviets if the coup were successful or a war if it weren't).

Who would perform this coup? Seems a bit far stretched. There was no real opposition to the 'dictatorship with no dictator.' Despite their differences the Sanation included everyone notable.

how plausible you guys think it would be for Poland to make a deal with the SU? they would hand over (partially maybe) Belorussia, in exchange for protection (and other goodies I guess)? I mean, when you are boxed in between 2 World super powers, you don´t have the luxury to be "demanding".

Zero to none. The foreign minister, Jozef Beck, was running a very firm neutrality policy and keeping Poland distant from both Germany and Soviet Union. He is sort of a prodigy of Pilsudski and continued his foreign policy which involved strengthening ties with France and Britain instead. But yeah, the government in Poland was too proud/stubborn to ever accept Soviet union's assistance when it was offered to them historically, but considering what happened it is probable that Stalin did not have good intents. Accepting soviet help would also have caused issue with their established neutrality and not siding with either of the countries sandwiching them. Basically, there was really not anyone in the government that was 'pro-german' or 'pro-soviet.' Although; Edward Smigly-Rydz, the field marshal, had this fascist political party created to advocate and rally the Polish people under his leadership. They wanted, among other things, to establish antisemite laws like the nuremberg ones. I imagine he could have gone 'pro-german' fast if a reasonable deal was made, although I doubt they trusted the Germans that much after annextion of Czechoslovakia. But as I said, the political party failed to rally many supporters and he did not become the 'second Pilsudski' as he wanted to be.

the way I see it, if Danzig was handed over to Poland, the Poles would "force" Germany to sign a deal, like peace in our time kind of ting instead this time the Germans would Promise on International level that Germany would respect the borders for good. and the poles would make the world know about this! meaning that Germany would no longer have the "Danzig!" Casus belie, Im sure the nazi goverment would try all they could to take the rest of Poland, but they already have Danzig. they promised to respect Poland territorial Integrity. not eve the Nazis would be such dicks would they? :ninja:

I doubt that the Nazis would honor this honestly.. Hitler pissed on the munich treaty a year before where he assured that Germany had no more territorial claims. If annexing Poland was in Hitler's interests, he would have attempted to do so eventually.


No serious historian uses Mein Kampf as evidence, as it is not written by Hitler (he dictated it) and it is not edited by him, and it is made as propaganda book made to win votes.

There would not have been war in 1939 had Poland given Danzig to Germany, Germany did not want war in 1939 and both Germany and Soviet Union wanted strong Poland between them to slow down enemy attack. And remember Molotov-Rippentrop pact never was agreement that would split Poland between SU and Germany, it was agreement to put Poland under their Sphere of Influence. But things went differently.

Hm.

Heh, you seem to have mistaken history book to propaganda book.

Hm....

That + Alsace-Lorraine+parts of Switzerland and THEN Germany would have been satisfied, with SU they would have dealt with eventually, but who knows how and when. With west they never wanted anything more, bigger issues were inner issues, that without WW2 could have gotten better, who knows. Or worse.
But unlike 70 years of one sided stories originating from propaganda, Germany was did not want to conguer the world.

It is difficult to trust someone advocating 'good' fascism in his signature. I am sure you think you know the 'true story' and everyone else is a fool, but I am not convinced at all.
 
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Secret Master

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If anyone thinks germany would have been satisfied with Danzig they are as much of an optimist as Chamberlain in '38. Just look at the Czechs. its basically the same situation playing again, but this time Britain doesnt pussy out.

Quite right, but the question of when and how remains. I could see a scenario where Germany accidentally just gets Danzig via negotiation, and find themselves forced to take a second action, a la First Vienna Award.

And the real question on my mind is what WWII looks like if the British and French sell out Poland in 39, but the Soviets instead choose to "defend" Poland as a pre-text for expanding their influence in Eastern Europe rather than sign the M-R Pact.

Another possibility is Germany starts a war with Poland, but no one else comes to Poland's aid. Poland ends up refusing to hand Danzig over without any treaties or alliances with Britain, France, or the Soviets. Poland loses, but what now? How long do France and Britain accept the new status quo?

I can't even begin to imagine what the scenario looks like if the Soviets don't negotiate the M-R Pact, but start acting aggressive in Eastern Europe during the lead up to Danzig.
 
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EmperorTojo

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I am not sure how much effort is going to be put into making ahistorical options like this. It is something that they have implied they intend to make, but it really seems to be too much ground to cover. If only a single major event is altered in some way, it changes everything that follows. How will all of this work?
 

Phi

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There would still be war, mein kampf and Molotov-ribentropt pact are undeniable proofs.

Edit: mein kampf as proof because hitler describes war and goals about future of poland, which are impossible to attain without war.

There is also Hitler's unpublished second book from 1928 which is more detailed on many of his ideas.

And it is kind of sad that some people consider Hitler a pragmatic politician. I mean starting a world war was only his second largest crime and his second most irrational decision.
 

Mamluke

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Zero to none. The foreign minister, Jozef Beck, was running a very firm neutrality policy and keeping Poland distant from both Germany and Soviet Union. He is sort of a prodigy of Pilsudski and continued his foreign policy which involved strengthening ties with France and Britain instead. But yeah, the government in Poland was too proud/stubborn to ever accept Soviet union's assistance when it was offered to them historically, but considering what happened it is probable that Stalin did not have good intents. Accepting soviet help would also have caused issue with their established neutrality and not siding with either of the countries sandwiching them. Basically, there was really not anyone in the government that was 'pro-german' or 'pro-soviet.' Although; Edward Smigly-Rydz, the field marshal, had this fascist political party created to advocate and rally the Polish people under his leadership. They wanted, among other things, to establish antisemite laws like the nuremberg ones. I imagine he could have gone 'pro-german' fast if a reasonable deal was made, although I doubt they trusted the Germans that much after annextion of Czechoslovakia. But as I said, the political party failed to rally many supporters and he did not become the 'second Pilsudski' as he wanted to be.


I doubt that the Nazis would honor this honestly.. Hitler pissed on the munich treaty a year before where he assured that Germany had no more territorial claims. If annexing Poland was in Hitler's interests, he would have attempted to do so eventually.

thank you for the response!

well.. what if Germany decides NOT to go for the annexing of Czechoslovakia? Personally I believe that Germany would not accept anything lower then Sudetenland. it was far to much of an national risk to leave the Czechs like that. but keeping Czechoslovakia in place could be acceptable. (if the German government were not so much warmongers, of curse)

that could give the Germans the credibility for the poles to deal with Hitler, what would he do after?... wait until the time as come to crush France of curse :D
 
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Phalanxia

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how plausible you guys think it would be for Poland to make a deal with the SU? they would hand over (partially maybe) Belorussia, in exchange for protection (and other goodies I guess)? I mean, when you are boxed in between 2 World super powers, you don´t have the luxury to be "demanding".

Unlikely, since the USSR wanted the entirety of the Kresy due to its Belorussian and Ukrainian populations. Assuming that Poland grants concessions to Germany and the USSR and we're left with a rump state that is roughly the borders of Congress Poland, Poland becomes non-viable, essentially the fourth Baltic state, surrounded entirely by Germany and the USSR. It would be an annexation in all but name.

And the real question on my mind is what WWII looks like if the British and French sell out Poland in 39, but the Soviets instead choose to "defend" Poland as a pre-text for expanding their influence in Eastern Europe rather than sign the M-R Pact.

Do we know enough about why the Soviets signed the pact in the first place? Were they simply trying to buy time to rearm or did they see it as a cynical and permanent power grab?
 
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EmperorTojo

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thank you for the response!

well.. what if Germany decides NOT to for annexing Czechoslovakia? Personally I believe that Germany would not accept anything lower then Sudetenland. it was far to much of an national risk to leave the checks like that. but keeping Czechoslovakia in place could be acceptable. (if the German government were not so much warmongers, of curse)

that could give the Germans the credibility for the poles to deal with Hitler, what would he do after?... wait until the time as come to crush France of curse :D

I would argue that, yes, before Hitler 'betrayed' his word regarding Czechoslovakia, Poland was rather 'friendly' to germany considering Hitler had been feeding Beck alot of reassuring statements that Germany had no interest in Poland. Although they did deny to join the anti-comintern pact regardless, I believe.. I do not have any source if they ever offered this to Poland though, but I am certain I have read about it. It is probably safe to say that if Germany was less warlike in their policy, and making effort to align Poland to the Axis, Beck may have accepted. All of this is just musings though, since who knows. Poland was estentially ruled by three people since neither managed to 'overpower' the other politically. They would all have had to be pro-german, or pro-soviet, or remove the opposition which may have ended in a similiar fashion like a coup of sorts.

A Poland in the axis is sort of interesting anyway, game-wise. You got an ally on equal if not more strength than Romania, which dedicated millions of troops to the war. It should be a possibility even if historically it is a bit complicated. An axis poland certainly means no land being annexed though, I am certain, and usually this is not a feasible situation for the german player since you really want to connect east prussia with rest of germany at least. Likewise this is not something I think Poland would be willing to accept even if the west didn't support them.

Sorry if I get a bit carried away, but it's pretty interesting for me and I like to think I am educated concerning the Polish politics at the time.
 
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Augustus93

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There is also Hitler's unpublished second book from 1928 which is more detailed on many of his ideas.

And it is kind of sad that some people consider Hitler a pragmatic politician. I mean starting a world war was only his second largest crime and his second most irrational decision.
Except in reality Germany did not start a world war, Britain and France did. Germany started a local conflict with Poland and Britain's and France's involvement magnified it to the world war proportions. Hitler did not want to have a world war, or at least not at that time which could be seen by Germany offering several peace offerings to Britain which they declined.
 

Phalanxia

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I would argue that, yes, before Hitler 'betrayed' his word regarding Czechoslovakia, Poland was rather 'friendly' to germany considering Hitler had been feeding Beck alot of reassuring statements that Germany had no interest in Poland. Although they did deny to join the anti-comintern pact regardless, I believe.. I do not have any source if they ever offered this to Poland though, but I am certain I have read about it. It is probably safe to say that if Germany was less warlike in their policy, and making effort to align Poland to the Axis, Beck may have accepted. All of this is just musings though, since who knows. Poland was estentially ruled by three people since neither managed to 'overpower' the other politically. They would all have had to be pro-german, or pro-soviet, or remove the opposition which may have ended in a similiar fashion like a coup of sorts.
Polish foreign policy pre-1939 as a whole was incoherent and disorganised. Heck, they even participated in the First Vienna Award! Fear of both the Soviets and the Nazis translated into a puzzling reluctance to align too closely with the Western powers until very late in the day.

Of course, it didn't really matter in the end since Nazi geopolitical theory required Germany to be warlike and expand East. Problems such as rearmament and diplomacy were merely circumstantial roadblocks in the way of "destiny".


Except in reality Germany did not start a world war, Britain and France did. Germany started a local conflict with Poland and Britain's and France's involvement magnified it to the world war proportions. Hitler did not want to have a world war, or at least not at that time which could be seen by Germany offering several peace offerings to Britain which they declined.

apologists pls go

pls
 

misterbean

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Some people still don't understand the basic truth.

Hitler said in Mein Kampf what he would do if he had the chance. He actually ended up trying to do EXACTLY as he said he would. So I feel it is relevant in knowing Hitler's basic reasoning.

As for "good fascism" and all that crap; let's leave that at the door when you come in here, please. Your ideas will be returned to you on the way out. Thank you.
 

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Another thread where Enlightened Historical Scholars tell us about how the Second World War was actually a war of unparalleled racist aggression against Germany and Japan, who merely wished to right historical injustices.
 
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