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I disagree. The AI chance is about right the chance it had in real life.
According all available sources Poland wouldn't take steps to occupy the territory if Czechoslovakia wasn't going to give up Sudetenland and would support its defence if Germany were going to attack - as a great opportunity for a preventive war with transfer of Zaolzie in case of a victory ( Poland would try to get it as price for help).
Besides Zaolzie is hardly the entire region - it should result in transfering some resource, IC and manpower to Cracov and reducing such in Orava.
So basically exploiting the situation - YES, but assisting Germany - never - it was aginst all principles of Polish foreign policy since that would put Poland too close to the Axis which was the last thing Poland wanted.
Poland didn't like Czechoslovakia and vice versa - both states considered another a 'temporary being' and while Poland supported Slovak separatists, Czechs did the same with Ukrainians, however there is a long way between disliking something and exploiting the situation and waging an open war against it.
So please don't distort the political reality by dong so...
On the other hand it shouldn't improve relations with Czechoslovakia until the Czechs declare they will resist the Germans.
According all available sources Poland wouldn't take steps to occupy the territory if Czechoslovakia wasn't going to give up Sudetenland and would support its defence if Germany were going to attack - as a great opportunity for a preventive war with transfer of Zaolzie in case of a victory ( Poland would try to get it as price for help).
Besides Zaolzie is hardly the entire region - it should result in transfering some resource, IC and manpower to Cracov and reducing such in Orava.
So basically exploiting the situation - YES, but assisting Germany - never - it was aginst all principles of Polish foreign policy since that would put Poland too close to the Axis which was the last thing Poland wanted.
Poland didn't like Czechoslovakia and vice versa - both states considered another a 'temporary being' and while Poland supported Slovak separatists, Czechs did the same with Ukrainians, however there is a long way between disliking something and exploiting the situation and waging an open war against it.
So please don't distort the political reality by dong so...
On the other hand it shouldn't improve relations with Czechoslovakia until the Czechs declare they will resist the Germans.
cegorach said:
i would only agree with the thesis that poland was not to launch an attack against CZE due to the fear of soviets as soviets would happily abuse the situation if poland would go for a war with CZE to kick an offensive against poland. yes, so if there is an event meaning war with SU after attack on CZE, then poland might refuse to aid hitler dispose CZE with very high probability.
do get me wrong, i do not mean that poland would ally with germany, no way they would, but they would enjoy the possibility to gain all territorial demands (orava, spis, tesinsko) as well as hungarians, who were afraid of entente petite; at least romania would keep its eye on hungary not to do anything wrong in 1938. yugoslavia would hardly honour the pact, they had many problems of their own with italy.
only because hitler managed to gain all his demands in a peacy way, poland and hungary did it too. if it were by force, neither poles or hungarians would, but only because they feared a potential dagger in their back. i do not believe jozef beck had much sympathy for czechoslovakia and he would let it die happily. germany wasn't enemy that time, didn't poland and germany have a NA pact (not full NA, but some kinda) in late 1938? poland would gor, me thinks, for an independence for slovakia as potential partner. wasn't it lacizski, who informed hlinka in march 28, 1938, that poland would prefer to have a stable south border with free slovakia as an ally?
ok, we cannot "solve" this sitauation, but i would like to get to acceptable conclusion through discussion, for which i am grateful for, guys
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Gaarq said:
Soviets could hardly launch anything at that time. Poland had extensive spy network in the SU and Germany and was well informed about military situation.
Soviets were in the middle of the purges which seriously disrupted their abilty to fight at that time.
Some diplomatic posturing was all the could do.
Nobody really liked Czechoslovakia in Poland, BUT nobody was willing to help in its demise - ANY help for Germany would break the political line of the doctrine of two enemies and would seriously move Poland towards fascist camp which couldn't be allowed to happen.
Poland would most likely fight Germany if Czechoslovakia did, not because it loved Benes, but because it would be a perfect opportunity to derail German expansion. However when Czechoslovak government didn't do anything it was pointless to support it where it wasn't going to fight for its own interests.
There is a strong possibility that Poland would later demand a plebistite or a new conference to get Zaolzie back, it might try to get Ruthenia too, but as Beck admitted it would be all in Polish interest to support Czechoslovakia if it decided to fight, otherwise take back Zaolzie at least.
As Pilsudski said about this pact - '4-5 years gentlemen' - it was a piece of paper which was supposed to buy some time to improve defences and persuade the French to renew its alliance with Poland. After all it was only signed after the French refused to support the preventive war Pilsudski proposed them in 1933-34 promising a suitable incident in Danzig ( at that time there were 4 incidents in the area - recent studies seem to conclude their were triggered on purpose).
Essentially it was seen as little more than a piece of paper and together with German hopes for Poland joining the Axis (carefully nourished by Polish diplomacy which 'never said no, but never said yes') it meant Germany kept better relationship with Poland under Hitler than before him - it would never stop Poland from hitting them if an opportunity was there, but there was none so...
In general Poland tried to keep its distance from both enemies, buying time to find a way from increasinly worse situation - French were seen as unreliable ( Rydz-Smigly described their officer corps as 'utter mess'), Britain was 'without a backbone' (and Lloyed George was still well remembered), Czechoslovakia hostile, Lithuania even worse - only Hungary, Romania and Latvia were friendly, but Romania had its use only against the Soviets (so alliance was signed here) and was in conflict with Hungary, while Latvia was a pathetic ally to say the least (Finland and Estonia were afraid of the SU too much) and uncertain to say the least.
In other words the situation sucked a lot, so anything to improve it without allying with Germany or the Soviets would be seen as an opportunity which CANNOT be wasted.
Sometimes enemy (czechoslovakia) of your enemy (Germany) is a fried - not to be loved, but certainly with its uses.
Slovakian seperatism was supported for a long time, but German-Czech war would be an excellent opportunity to stop Germany and move the western border of Poland in Upper Silesia (and maybe Eastern Prussia) a bit - not to mention the highly probable demand for Zaolzie after victorius end of the war.
cegorach said:
i have read so many contradictive infos about the situation of soviet army in late 1938. yes, on the first sight they have lost lots of officers (lots of means almost all high rank officers), bust most of them weren't profi soldiers, but rather politruks, who were substituted for new batch only. yes, also many prof soldiers were executed, mostly those who have seen old times of Red Army, but still, many historians say, soviet army wasn't that bad in 1938, as it wasn't never good after they had expelled old revolutionary generals.
cegorach said:
but would it (occupation of certain regions) be seen as a help for germans internationally? again, i have read recently a reliable source, which says, poland was only considering animosity from soviet side, nothing else, in potential occupation of certain regions in CZE if germans would do the same. no one would help CZE and i do not believe no one would even punish poland for doing so.
i am also not much convinced poland would fight germany if it DoWs CZE. just from a reason of not dragging poland into war which may be lost. war against CZE could not be lost in a fictive 1938 scenario, CZE had no chance to stand germany for a long time. but germany may defeat both, CZE and poland in they attack it. although it would completely debilitate germany's ability for any further war for a long time. i have no illusions about the strength of german army in late 1938, it was not really that war machine from later period, but anyway it has slightly better equipment, disciplined soldiers and better manpower. well, they had also hitler, so eventually, poland and CZE may also win
Gaarq said:
True that many, many of them were political officers responsible for earlier crimes, but the purge created a situation of paranoid bloodletting - just check how the Red Army fared against the Japanese in 1938 - it was a nightmarish, total failure with Soviet tanks easily destroyed by Japanese infantrymen and NKVD competing with the Japanses who would eliminate more Soviet soldiers...
And that was only on regimental-brigade level - I cannot imagine how bad it would be if armies were involved - even in 1939 Soviet forces fared really badly and were defeated by ad hoc formed combat groups, teenagers and volunteers - they lost 400 tanks to 900 lost by Germany...
Those 'certain regions' were a contested territory for the entire interbellum and hey they would be seized before Germany had a chance, however ONLY in case if the Chechs DIDN'T fight - Poland wasn't going to start a war for that - that would be just stupid and useless and seving no purpose.
I remember seeing rather detailed plans - I would give it 80 % chance.
war against CZE could not be lost in a fictive 1938 scenario, CZE had no chance to stand germany for a long time. but germany may defeat both, CZE and poland in they attack it. although it would completely debilitate germany's ability for any further war for a long time. i have no illusions about the strength of german army in late 1938, it was not really that war machine from later period, but anyway it has slightly better equipment, disciplined soldiers and better manpower. well, they had also hitler, so eventually, poland and CZE may also win
Germany had little chance to fight both states at the same time effectively - some areas were not defended and the main thing would be if the Czechs defended for more than a week I belive - Polish army consisted mainly of first-rate divisions (reserve divisions were less numerous than 'first wave' divisions') - so it would't take too much time.
During that one year period between Munich and September 1939 only a number of changes were made to the equipment used by the Polish army - more AT guns, tanks, a stack of modern tactical bombers etc, Germany would have at least half fast moving divisions they enjoyed in 1939, not to mention far worse tactical and strategical situation - the entire Upper Silesia could easily become one big pocket for example.
Hello
I've recently considered some what if GC scenario mod about Poland joining Little Entente and turning it into proper self defend alliance.
I've also read a little to check how plausible was that scenario.
Poland has very good relations with Romania, quite good with Yugoslavia and very bad with Czechoslovakia
The relations with Czechoslovakia were damaged in 1920 with Zaolzie case and it resolve in Spa meeting (see the part from Richard Watt in http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zaolzie )
Both mutal hatred between Benes and Beck and mutual support to each others minorities made the situation worse.
I'm not really so sure that if the Czech resist Poland could helped them.
The approval of Soviet transit was out of question - Beck hardly accepted it in summer 39.
Relations between Pol and Ger in 1938 were much better than between Pol and Cze. Pol relations with Hun were even better and there were some talks of partition Cze between Pol, Hun and Rom.
Pol answer in times of Sudetenland crisis was tha Poland holds no obligation to independence of Czechoslovakia.
Hovewer according to Namier Beck proposed to French in May 1938 to have Poland come to the aid of Czechoslovakia in the event of a German attack.
This offer was discarded by France.
I think that if this offer had been accepted and the Cze resisted the Munich Hitler had to fold. He'd failed if he tried something
The GER army were not prepared for serious fight - even in the 39 with POL they nearly depleted their arty ammo stock
In 38 the front would be much longer and in case of CZE better prepared
Main source of oil for GER in 38 were import from ARG, VEN and USA - hard to get with active RN. In 39 situation was different - ROM and SOV
CZE could stalled them, RN could cut their supply and POL after 1920 knew how and could make an offensive.
I've recently considered some what if GC scenario mod about Poland joining Little Entente and turning it into proper self defend alliance.
I've also read a little to check how plausible was that scenario.
Poland has very good relations with Romania, quite good with Yugoslavia and very bad with Czechoslovakia
The relations with Czechoslovakia were damaged in 1920 with Zaolzie case and it resolve in Spa meeting (see the part from Richard Watt in http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zaolzie )
Both mutal hatred between Benes and Beck and mutual support to each others minorities made the situation worse.
I'm not really so sure that if the Czech resist Poland could helped them.
The approval of Soviet transit was out of question - Beck hardly accepted it in summer 39.
Relations between Pol and Ger in 1938 were much better than between Pol and Cze. Pol relations with Hun were even better and there were some talks of partition Cze between Pol, Hun and Rom.
Pol answer in times of Sudetenland crisis was tha Poland holds no obligation to independence of Czechoslovakia.
Hovewer according to Namier Beck proposed to French in May 1938 to have Poland come to the aid of Czechoslovakia in the event of a German attack.
This offer was discarded by France.
I think that if this offer had been accepted and the Cze resisted the Munich Hitler had to fold. He'd failed if he tried something
The GER army were not prepared for serious fight - even in the 39 with POL they nearly depleted their arty ammo stock
In 38 the front would be much longer and in case of CZE better prepared
Main source of oil for GER in 38 were import from ARG, VEN and USA - hard to get with active RN. In 39 situation was different - ROM and SOV
CZE could stalled them, RN could cut their supply and POL after 1920 knew how and could make an offensive.
Winner said:Someone finally posted it here, good
it?
finally? :wacko: it was never published anywhere else
do not be mistaken, this is not Ileanos' neither Duck's mods published on Czech forum (they are anyway available only in Czech; this is English only mod), this is my mod
which includes some features from that of Ileanos (with permission of author) only. i plan to include also some features from Duck's mod (he already agreed too), but i am waiting for DD-Arma patch 1.2
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Your work is really commendable!
Would yo like to merge your work with our for the Uber Balkan Mod, we have many model images, and events regarding Little Entente? Thank you for your cooperation.
Would yo like to merge your work with our for the Uber Balkan Mod, we have many model images, and events regarding Little Entente? Thank you for your cooperation.
- pack was adopted to arma patch 1.2!!
- few things missing in vanilla 1.2 were corrected (e.g. dardanelles - izmir connection)
- few bugs from last edition were corrected (missing events.txt file)
- Prague National Uprising and Slovak National Uprising are done! so, when Russians are close to Slovakia, Slovaks do uprise, turn back to CZE and fight on the side of alliance against nazis. dtto for Czechs, those uprise, when Americans or Russians liberate certain parts of former CZE.
- few things missing in vanilla 1.2 were corrected (e.g. dardanelles - izmir connection)
- few bugs from last edition were corrected (missing events.txt file)
- Prague National Uprising and Slovak National Uprising are done! so, when Russians are close to Slovakia, Slovaks do uprise, turn back to CZE and fight on the side of alliance against nazis. dtto for Czechs, those uprise, when Americans or Russians liberate certain parts of former CZE.
Gaarq, I have one question. Yesterday I have implemented CIP to Uber Balkan Mod. Are your event images working correctly? They seem to be in different shapes and sizes. Tell me if I am wrong.
Vladimir II said:
oops, all or only some? i havent seen any problems with them, they all have the unified shape and size 54 342 B. as i do tests for all new events... was it the latest CIP, cos in one older version they were wrong (missing rather than in a bad shape)... need to have look...
My mistake. I have mixed your images with form another mod. Sorry. There are five CIP event images, aren't there?
Vladimir II said:
seven within the ver 1.41, two are new:
elias, heydrich, lidice, opletal, protektor + povstani, snp (those new)
All right. And what is the new nation you have added? I would like to create a new shield and flag for it with CoA on it, since it will be new feature in ÜBM.
Never mind. I have found out about the u12 country, and Daemoncool will make the new shield and flag.