CHAPTER 118 – QUANDARIES
The Zossen Headquarters compound, April the 22nd, 1939
“No. I don't like it” dropped Halder, throwing his red pencil on the operational maps. “The timetable is unrealistic. That leaves our Western borders too vulnerable, for far too long.”
Across the table, Major-General Walther Warlimont, the recently appointed deputy OKW Chief of Staff, sighed. It was the same debate, over and over again. For him, and for the dozen officers trapped in the Maybach I bunker's operations room it had been a tiresome and frustrating day, poring other countless mobilisation schedules, and leaning over maps that covered the Reich's borders. Their backs stiff, their stomach burning from the gallons of ersatz coffee they had wrecked their brains trying to figure out how to conduct a two-front war, and deter aggression on a third one, with barely over a hundred divisions. To make matter worse, there had been constant tension between the staff of the Oberkommando des Heeres, normally in charge of strategic planning, and their junior counterparts from the new Oberkommando der Wehrmacht, which currently enjoyed Hitler's favour. The rivalry between the two headquarters – which conveniently occupied distinct bunkers in the compound – was well-known among the soldiers stationed at Zossen. A popular joke among the soldiers guarding the area was that the real purpose of the electrified fences and dog patrols deployed at the headquarters was mainly to prevent the Generals to come to blows.
“You cannot expect the troops to cover the Rhine and Bavaria with only thirty divisions for the duration of Case White. That is simply impossible!” repeated Halder.
“With all due respect, Herr Generaloberst”, replied Warlimont, “we cannot withdraw any more units from Army Groups I and II. Case White has to be the priority! Our forces will face fifty-five Polish divisions, which we need to pin down in a rapid succession of set-piece battles, so our Panzerkorps can break free and destroy the enemy's logistical infrastructure deep behind the front. That task requires eighty divisions, fully supported by the Luftwaffe. If we move in with less, the Poles will be able to form viable defensive positions.”
“Which would rapidly crumble”, said General Wachenfeld. As the commanding officer of the VII Armee-Korps, and as such the man responsible for the defence of the Bavarian military district, there were closer perils than stubborn Polish riflemen.
“The Polish front would crumble”, conceded Warlimont, “but not rapidly enough. We're talking months of fighting there, and we do not have months! We all know the real danger will come from the West, if the French and British intervene. We have to secure a swift and decisive victory in the east, before the French mobilize, before British soldiers start pouring over the Channel! That gives us four to six weeks to crush the Poles and redeploy west.”
“Are we certain the Western powers would start a war for Poland?” wondered von Brauchitsch. “At the Chancellery, they seem to doubt it.”
Generaloberst von Brauchitsch, head of the Oberkommando des Heeres
Halder grimaced in exasperation. Despite von Brauchitsch's assurances that he was doing everything he could to limit OKW influence on the plan-making process, the general had so far seemed to accept the OKH’s diminished status. Instead of challenging Warlimont’s assumptions, he had been content with questioning minor issues, and voicing general concerns. To Halder, that was how politicians talked, not German generals. But in the newfound Reich, didn’t the difference between the two grow thinner every day? While the officers corps blithely pretended otherwise, Halder knew the German Army had not escaped Hitler's usual tactic of playing one government branch against another. Mired in petty quarrels, ministries and agencies competed to win the Hitler's favours, ensuring the Führer's absolute control over his lieutenants – and over his generals as well, as was clearly apparent.
“Gehlen?” asked Warlimont, turning to the young, balding Major that was his expert on the coming Western Front. The Abwehr officer was the youngest of the men who stood around the table – as well as the most junior.
“Our Foreign Armies West intelligence unit, ah, concur it is indeed unlikely they will act militarily indeed” said Gehlen, catching a warning glance from Warlimont.
It wasn’t exactly a lie, but it left a bitter taste in Gehlen's mouth and he reached for his cold cup of bad coffee. His promotion to Major was only weeks old, and, he knew, owed a lot to Warlimont's influence. So when Warlimont had warned Gehlen in no uncertain terms that some things would be for OKW ears only, the young Major had obediently nodded. One of these things was the fact the Abwehr estimated the probability of
either a French or British intervention likely to very likely depending on the circumstances – only a joint intervention was deemed unlikely, which made quite a difference. He wasn’t to talk about the recent breakthrough by the Abwehr code-breakers tasked with deciphering French Army messages. That had allowed some of the FAW experts to re-evaluate the French manoeuvres initiated at the height of the Czech crisis - which until now had been seen as a defensive move - as the first steps of a real offensive across the Rhine. Had the Münich conference failed, these experts said, twenty to thirty French divisions would have attacked somewhere along the Westwall – at the time only a discontinuous line of anti-tank obstacles and hastily-built bunkers.
And to be honest, thought Gehlen as he put down the empty cup on the table,
it's still little more than that.
But for every Abwehr Cassandra who predicted a probable French attack, there was another who explained why Paris or London would not react militarily to the invasion of Poland. After all, why would the French or British react now, when they had not a few months ago when they could still hope to enjoy Czech or Polish support? And wasn't France more isolated in Europe that it had ever been since 1914? While most Central European nations had strengthened their ties with the Reich, while Russia itself received favourably German diplomatic overtures, France's only European allies were an exhausted Spanish Republic, and a divided Italian Kingdom – and, of course, Austrofascist Austria. Further East, Poland's complicity in the dismemberment of the Czech state had soured its traditionally good relations with Paris. As for France itself, it still hadn't recovered from the horrendous losses sustained in the Great War, and its population was barely half the Reich's. So yes, Gehlen had to admit, those who announced the French government would act with extreme caution had solid arguments.
The OKH/OKW joint planning session
“Nevertheless” stated Halder after a pause. “Even possible enemy intervention must be taken into account. Which means we need thirty divisions along the French border to deter or face a Franco-British attack.”
“Thirty?” said Warlimont. “We can certainly manage with less. The French mobilisation process is still largely inefficient. That limits their ability to mount large-scale operations. With proper air support, Case White can succeed by the time French divisions start incorporating conscripts and the older classes of reservists. We’ll be back on the Rhine in force before they can act. And then it will be too late, winter will be setting, and we’ll have several months to build up our forces in the West”
“What of their incursion in Spain?” asked one of Halder's deputies. “It seemed efficient enough.”
“That's quite different” replied Gehlen, glad he could stick to facts. “They mostly used active-duty divisions and fresh-from-service reservists which could be recalled in a matter of days. Their entire operations mobilised five Army Corps, totalling twenty of their divisions.”
“Twenty?”
“No more. They knew they would be joined by Basque and Republican Spanish units to make the best of that expeditionary force.”
“May we get back to Bavaria?” reminded Wachenfeld. “How can Armee-Korps VII cover the whole Austrian border ? My already wide sector now stretches out all the way to Nürnberg, since most of AK XII's units are slated for operations in Poland. I do not have enough forces to defend it all, and at the same time prepare a drive into Austria!”
“The air defence situation is just as tense”, added Halder. “With the level of air-to-ground cooperation you require for Case White, we'll have to make do with four fighter squadrons – six if you count the pilots that are completing their training in Münich. If the Italians start deploying bombers on Austrian airfields, we'll face air attacks throughout half of the country.”
“We have to close down those airfields” said von Brauchitsch.
“Absolutely” replied Warlimont. “As it happens, we have a way to neutralise Austria. And to reinforce our Western front.”
“How does the OKW propose to do that?”
“With Hungary's help. The OKW has been informed that a secret protocol exists between the Reich and the Hungarian state. This document ensures the full cooperation of the Hungarian army to our operations against Austria?”
“Why haven't you told us about this protocol this morning?” demanded Halder, whose irritation now showed. “We lost hours today shuffling units back and forth!”
“I am sorry, Herr Generaloberst” said Warlimont in a not entirely convincing contrite tone. “The instructions the Führer gave General Keitel was to assess the Wehrmacht's ability to subdue Poland and Austria on its own, while holding our ground on the Western front. General Halder has proven without a doubt that we cannot attain these three objectives alone. So we must now see how to do it with Hungarian units at our disposal.”
“How many Hungarian divisions could we count upon?” asked von Brauschitsch.
“Ten infantry divisions, and one light armoured can be made available. And we'll be able to count on their entire new air force – that's four more squadrons.”
“Can we count on them?”
“Absolutely” replied Warlimont. “Generaloberst Keitel authorised me to tell you the Hungarian government signed a secret protocol with the Führer earlier this year. In exchange of our support for their claims on Magyar-dominated areas in neighbouring nations, the Hungarian government pledged to second our own moves in Central Europe.”
“And what, exactly, the Hungarians want in return?” demanded Halder.
“Very little, from what I understand” replied Warlimont. “For the most part, they already got their share of the Czech spoils. We also have agreed to procure them some military equipment – notably, some Junker bombers for their air force.”
“Eighty-eights?” asked von Brauchitsch suspiciously. Agile and faster than most enemy fighters, the new Junker-88 model were the prize every Luftwaffe squadron coveted. With war now imminent, the OKH was pestering the Reich's Luftministerium for an accelerated deployment, and had no intention of letting the Ju-88 production be squandered away to equip untrained allied air forces.
“No, Herr Generaloberst. Only older eighty-sixes – as you know, these planes are about to be phased out. The Hungarians also want some technical assistance for their panzer programs. And, finally, there will be minor border adjustments in Burgenland once Austria is defeated. We're only talking about a few Magyar-dominated towns and districts here.”
Halder frowned. As much as he hated to admit it, this was a small price to pay for securing the Reich’s southern flank, and keeping Italian bombers beyond the Alps. Much to its regret, the OKW was playing its cards right in this inter-service fight. After a few years of being relegated to a supporting role for the more prestigious OKH, the Oberkommando der Wehrmacht was skillfully using its
savoir-faire on logistics and intelligence to gain the upper hand. Halder had no doubt Hitler also preferred dealing with the more junior officers of the OKW staff than with older, less compliant generals. Not that it made much of a difference to him: time was running out for the old Reichswehr mindset anyway. The old generals had thought they could control the Bohemian corporal for who they could barely concealed their disdain, they had forced him to beg for the Army’s support, and it was clearly a thing the Hitler had neither forgotten nor forgiven. In a few years, the new Führer had turned the tables on the old generals, compromising them with every sordid excess of his regime, making them accept the unacceptable. Hitler had silenced the old political parties, and the Army had said nothing. He had arrested innocents by the thousands, and the Army had remained silent. He had assassinated generals, and the Army had just looked away. Finally he had decapitated the old SA and opponents of every ilk in a country-wide bloodbath, and the generals had applauded. Why would Hitler fear the old generals’
klub, now? Halder had no illusion: no-one would speak for the officers corps either. There had been too much blood spilled, and too many averted gazes.
Where will it stop? Halder wondered, taking off his
pince-nez to massage the bridge of his nose.
What other crimes lie ahead?
“Halder?” asked von Brauchitsch. “Your opinion?”
Halder looked up. War, of course, was what lied ahead. And he had to prepare it.
“Let us review Case White with this new hypothesis” he sombrely replied, trying his best to ignore Warlimont’s smug look.
Berlin, the Dahlem district, the same day.
“So”, said Oster his gaze lost on his glass of cognac, “It is written, then. War in six months, probably less.”
“In August”, Canaris confirmed. “Gehlen called me tonight from Zossen.”
“What will our pretext be this time?”
“Unrest in Danzig, mostly. We’ll conveniently have a naval squadron ‘visiting’ - with several companies of naval infantry on board. Raeder must be delirious with joy: his sailor boys will fire the first shots of the war.”
“Truly a shot that will be heard around the world” commented Oster. “And this time, no Münich conference to snatch an uneasy peace from the jaws of war. Fine. What do you plan to do?”
“Why, prepare for war of course!” Canaris exclaimed. “Have you forgotten? We have a lot to do! The OKW loved the tricks we played on Czechoslovakia affair, and they want to unleash our ‘irregulars’ on all fronts.”
“Does that mean pulling off another
Palast operation?”
“Actually, no. No political targets, no assassination of enemy leadership allowed. Our generals have the oddest idea of what war truly is, really! What they really want is on-the-ground intelligence, sabotage, fifths columns, francs-tireurs.”
Pulling a pen our of his tunic’s pocket, Oster jotted down a few notes on the back of his cigarette pack.
“Write this down”, pursued Canaris. “I need you to reopen our Austrian files – I know we already have agents across the border, but Lahousen’s Brandenburger could make with some Austrian companies. Also, canvass our political émigrés for possible candidates – we’ll need
Fascisti, Falangistas, Cagoulards hardliners. The Propaganda Ministry wants to show the world press the Reich enjoys a lot of ‘international support’, whatever that means.”
“I’ll give Dr Goebbels his ‘Olympic teams’ for the coming war – but I hope he doesn’t expect thousands of volunteers.”
“Give him enough to make some pictures of it”, chuckled Canaris, ”and he’ll make it sound we have dozens on nations pledging support to the Reich anyway.”
“Speaking of which... What kind of real support can we expect?”
“In Europe, Hungary will tie its fortune to ours. With the Little Entente buried for good, the rest of the Balkans will want to stay on our good side – moreso if war favours us. In the West, Netherland and Norway should observe a friendly neutrality – mostly buying industrial supplies for us, that kind of thing. We haven’t won them over, so they won’t move - unless provoked by the Western powers, which is another ‘trick’ the OKW wants us to set up, by the way.”
Oster scribbled some more, shaking his head in quiet disbelief.
The night falls over Berlin - as it will soon all over Europe and beyond
“In Asia, Japan will make menacing moves against Indochina, Burma, Singapore – the general idea is to tie up as many ships and soldiers as possible over there, but the real intentions of our Japanese Axis partners remain inscrutable. And of course we have a few surprises for our Franco-British friends in other areas. “
“And Russia?” said Oster. The invasion of Poland would create a long border with the USSR, and Oster wondered whether anyone had thought out all the consequences it would entail.
“Ribbentrop says he has opened a communication channel with the Kremlin, and that he has reasons to believe they will acquiesce to our little projects. He seems to think he is about to accomplish the diplomatic coup of the century. That’s Ribbentrop for you – though he did manage to reel Japan in, so who knows? Well, as you can see we have a lot on our plate.”
“I’ll start working on it tonight” said Oster after a polite cough. “But now, what do you propose we do about his war?”
“Do?” snarled Canaris. “Well… We cannot exactly go to the Führer and urge him to reconsider, now do we? The MEFO time-bomb is ticking, pulling the brakes is no longer an option for Germany. And we cannot shovel sand in the gears either, Oster. That would be useless, and rather stupid of us.”
“Couldn’t we… alert someone?”
Canaris’ shoulders sagged.
“Someone outside Germany, you mean?” the Admiral said, passing his hand through his white mane. “Because that is the only option we have left, Oster. To go from dissenters to traitors, to warn our enemies of our armies’ next move. To invite death and destruction upon our soldiers, our sailors, our citizens.”
“For Hitler there’s not much difference between dissent and treason anyway” said Oster bitterly. “I did not mean -” began Oster, embarrassed.
“My dear friend, I know what you meant” said Canaris, raising a hand to silence his subordinate. “I should know. I have spent the past week thinking about it as well. Yes, we should alert ‘someone’, like you said. But I cannot do that – we cannot do that. Not now. Not yet. Not when we ignore what would be their reaction. For the time being, keep everything we discussed for yourself – consider that a direct order, or an old friend’s request, but keep it secret anyway. We have a few months before war starts. Who knows? Maybe we’ll think of a viable alternative.”
“Let us hope so” said Oster, getting his coat. “With your permission, admiral, I’d better return to the office now. You can, of course count on my absolute discretion.”
Watching Oster’s car leave his alley and plunge into the misty night, Canaris sighed. Oster was unfortunately right. This time, there was no easy option. Stifling a yawn, he decided to review the Abwehr’s dossiers on foreign officials. Perhaps one of them could both urge action and counsel restraint at the same time.
********
Game effects :
None as such, but you get the general idea about the balance of forces in Europe. France and Britain are still part of two different alliances, while Germany has gained a lot of traction in central Europe, and gaining friends in other regions. I intend to have a strong Axis, in the hope we shall see a lot of action across all continents.Hopefully the AI and its 'Furious' setting will help. I started a USSR Armaggedon game last week and initiated WW2 simply by attacking Finlan. Sweden and Norway declared war on me, Germany followed suit, and all Hell broke loose in Europe in a matter of weeks (France invaded Germany which was invading Poland while Romania invaded the USSR which was battling Norwegians and Swedes in Hammerfest). So there's hope!
Writer’s notes :
The
Zossen military compound housed both the OKH and OKW headquarters – each oif which, according to one German officer, did their best to ignore the existence of the other one. The fact the OKH and OKW ended up managing different fronts certainly helped this odd case of general headquarters schizophrenia. The two headquarters were installed in two different set of bunkers (Maybach I and II), which on the surface looked like army barracks.
The
OKH/OKW rivalry is a historical reality. As Hitler found the OKW a more docile instrument, he progressively transferred OKH responsibilities to the OKW to the point it managed the entire Western front (the OKH remaining in charge of the dreaded Eastern front).
Generalfeldmarschall von Brauchitsch was the head of the OKH. In 1939 he’s “only” a Generaloberst (like his OKW counterpart Wilhelm Keitel). Initially critical of Hitler’s plans of annexing Austria and Czechoslovakia, he nevertheless fell back in line and played no part in active (or passive) opposition to the Nazi regime.
Generaloberst Halder, the OKH’s Deputy Chief of staff, was a vocal critic of Hitler. As you can imagine, this didn’t end well. After being stripped of his command in 1942 for one disagreement too many, he went into forced retirement. While he never too part to any conspiracies against Hitler, he was sent to a concentration camp after the 1944 coup. In this TL, as things have been more difficult for the Nazi regime, maybe he can hope to see the end of the war!
Generalmajor Walter Warlimont may not have been as scheming and manipulative as I’ve portrayed him here, but he was not adverse to telling what his superiors wanted to hear, as he did in OTL on some occasions like his evaluation of the Falaise pocket. In this TL, he serves as the OKW new deputy-chief of staff (a position he only held in OTL 1940).
Major Gehlen was in OTL the head of the Foreign Armies – East, a military intelligence unit of the OKH. In this TL the FAE has turned into the FA-West, and is attached to the OKW (and thus, to the Abwehr, which was itself subordinated to the OKW). No special reason for this except I wanted to have Gehlen share a moral quandary of his own as a man forced to keep his suspicions to himself.
And finally, we meet Admiral Canaris again, wrestling with another difficult moral issue.
