Crivens! Rng Luck based anecdotes[Merged];

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Doctor Machete

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Best head capping weapons in my opinion. Massed ML +dmg, massed PPC +dmg and massed LL +dmg, massed SL. AC20+++ are nice when they hit, but to reliable kill a Mech per round with headshots you need to game the system. That means bring as many weapon rolls as possible to the table, some will hit the head.
I've crunched the numbers for a 100t with no hardpoint limit, only available weight. And the best weapon when massed is the SRM2, with MLs being close second. For long range weapons PPs are not good, LLs, AC5s and even AC2 (as suplementary weapons) are way better.

I'm not good with math but for example, 8x AC20+++ have a lower chance to hit the head once then 24 (or more) ML+++ to hit it 3 times. 3 ML hits to the head will kill a mech 100% same as 1 AC20+++ shot.
For a 100t mech, no hardpoint limit, JJs, a minimum of 18t armor and cooling around 0 net heat or better (for allowing frequent use of JJs), you just can't fit more than two AC20s. You could 25xSRM2s or 18xMLs while retaining quite decent armor and good cooling.

AC20+++ are great when you want to minimize received dmg. Dual AC20+++ with precise shot to the CT will in most cases kill a mech instantly. To kill 2-4 mechs with CT hits per round is a game changer in higher difficulty missions. And you will get new mechs faster with called shots to the CT then you would with headshots. You can do most missions without receiving enough DMG that you don't need to repair between missions, that adds up over a while.
A dual AC20 can't core a healthy Orion while a 6xML 4xSRM6 Stalker has 91%. And that's without damage reduction, at 20% DR the Stalker still has 42% (0% from 40% DR onward). Let's say a Centurion bulwarked in cover (but not braced): you can't core him with a dual AC20 setup. You have 91% (again) with a Stalker. And it's no coincidence, the damage required to land at the CT in both scenarios is almost the same and higher what both AC20s can do if they land at the same place. So (surprise) the setups good for headcapping are also very good for CT core.
 

Scoughman

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I find the game totally boring with 10-all pilots and full Assault lances. Your advantage over the AI is massive at that point. 5 mech parts at a minimum is key but very slow pilot progression is an underrated difficulty setting for sure.
 

Nick_S

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This just happened to me. I'd decided to start a new career (to play from the beginning with this restriction: https://forum.paradoxplaza.com/forum/index.php?threads/new-optional-feature-weapons-only-have-benefits-when-they-match-stock.1205332/

This start out okay, I've gotten to my third planet, first mission, I'm facing a Hunchback and Kintaro (before meeting up with the convoy I'm supposed to escort). I get lucky and take off the Hunchback's LT, so not I'm trying to see if I can take it down for parts. I spend a turn unloading into the Right side, and sadly don't take out the RL (RT goes, CT is almost gone, no good way to knock the mech down before the CT is destroyed).

Next turn, I core the HB, knock down the Kintaro (and also get a head hit) so I'm feeling really good about getting some Kintaro salvage. The Kintaro pilot is a Defender, so I know I need 4 injuries, which means that I'll want another knockdown. So I let it get back up, and it punches my commander directly in the cockpit. . . .

I don't believe in commander immortality, so time to start a new career . . .
 

Havamal

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Merged.


Carry on.
 
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smurfopax

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RNG loves me with my newest Legendary Career try. I have 1040 days left and i'm already fielding a full Heavy Lance (2 Jaegermech, 1 Thunderbolt, 2 Grasshoppers) and have 2 parts for a Cyclops already (a SH did a Roundhouse kick to the head of the Cyclops) . And i only lost one pilot to a headshot until now :).

My biggest issue in the moment are Weapons, i bought every LL, AC20, SRM6 whatever i could find. But still needed to take only weapons on two 5 salvage missions just to be able to fit out my new heavies. I have to run my grasshopper with only ML and SL because i don't have any LL :).

@Doctor Machete
True but a Black Knight hasn't enough Armor, and all lower weight chassis also. Then yeah it's nice that you did the math without Hardpoint Limits, but sadly we have one so we can't build the ideal Kill Machine.
The Dual AC20+++ has other advantages against your Stalker build, 2 Breaching Shots on 2 targets that are Braced (and/or in Cover) and have evasion pips and i outdamage your Stalker easily. And often the Stab. dmg of a AC20+++ is enough to remove all evasion pips. 4x SRM6 should do more DMG and Stab DMG but they don't against multible targets that have dmg mitigating stuff (Evasion, Cover, etc.). Your build is much better for finishing off something or against everything that hasn't moved or braced, but yeah that doesn't happen to often in my experience :D
 
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Corraidhin

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My oddest RNG occurance was Behemoth getting wiped out by 3 head hits in a single turn whilst at 60%damge reduction. RNG BS at it's finest. However, RNG on my luck kicked in as my laptop shut down from overheating, meaning I had to restart the mission anyway.
 

Doctor Machete

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The Dual AC20+++ has other advantages against your Stalker build, 2 Breaching Shots on 2 targets that are Braced (and/or in Cover) and have evasion pips and i outdamage your Stalker easily. And often the Stab. dmg of a AC20+++ is enough to remove all evasion pips. 4x SRM6 should do more DMG and Stab DMG but they don't against multible targets that have dmg mitigating stuff (Evasion, Cover, etc.). Your build is much better for finishing off something or against everything that hasn't moved or braced, but yeah that doesn't happen to often in my experience :D
Because the damage from the Stalker is being focused with Precision Shot and yours is being spread, unless you're very lucky you're for many turns of firing against hard targets. Two alphas against a 40% damage reduction healthy 100t mech almost guarantee a kill, a 100t mech which very likely won't have much evasion and I get +15% extra base chance from PS anyway. If the target is lighter then he may have more evasion, but also will have less armor/struct. You, on the other side, bypass the 40% damage reduction but you are doing half damage (because you split dmg) at a random location.

Let's say you have to kill two assaults with your mech which are firing at you while in cover and bulwarked. Let's say they both have three pips. How many turns would you think is going to take you kill both with the dual AC20 while using Multi+Breaching?, what is better, to grind multiple targets at the same time using random damage or very high damage and focused salvos to fast kill one target at a time and with first strike against most other assaults?. Unless you can do the grind without being returned fire (like with LRMs) the second choice wins, by far.

Also your point about stab damage works against you, because Breaching doesn't effect Stab damage. If the target is strenched or has Sure Foot you'll be dealing half stab damage, and half again because you split your damage.

I can easily complete many five skull missions using just one Stalker and no other mech in the lance. Try that with a dual AC20 while using multi+breaching each time, you can be sure is going to be much much harder. And you'll need a lot of ammo.
 

smurfopax

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Ok fine now work on your reading comprehension.

Because basically i never said anything different to begin with. You started the whole discussion because i showed a use for Dual AC20+++ i never stated that they are the best tool for coring a mech. They have their advantages but there is better, but you don't need to optimize every last bit to beat this game. So AC20's are still viable but not the best tool.
Try to look over the edge of the plate sometimes, you don't need the best tools to complete something. A decent tool often is enough.

For example what you completly ignore with your arguments, in most cases you will have a max. of 2 Precision Shots per round. Often you willl only have one, how good is your Stalker build with coring without Precision Shot? AC20's have the same problem, but they have much higher use when you are out of Morale because you can deliver a lot of dmg in a reliable way via Breaching shot. With the Stalker without precise Shot, i will just sandpaper a enemy mech in a lot of cases.

And i don't know how you do it, but i personally use the Brace Skill much more often then the Precise Shot skill. Because in the end it's often better to kill slower when you can tone down the dmg received enough to do the next mission without repairs.


Your part with the Stab dmg isn't different when you use a SRM,. But the AC20 with Breaching Shot will hit somewere in most cases and will deal 100dmg + stab dmg to the target, thats difficult with 4x ML and 4x SRM6. Sure 2x SRM6+++ can deliver as much stab dmg (and more dmg) to a braced target with Evasion pips as a single AC20+++ hit will do. But you need to hit with a minimum of 12 SRM for this, so when you want to deliver 60 Stab dmg to a target you need 2x SRM6+++ to deliver it (when all missles hit) or one AC20+++ shot that will hit most times with breaching shot.

You also didn't account for the small fact that you have a max. of 1 Precise Shot in the first round of combat, maybe 2 when you didn't start the engagment asap. So you could have Sandpapered 3 extra Mechs with your 3 other mechs, maybe you shaved enough armor from the CT that 240 DMG to it will core even a Atlas. The game is a morphing RNG based environment that can't be calculated completly before a engagment, so don't try to do it. Fun Fact: I never manage to do more then 2 Brace or Precise Shot per round every single round, 2 is sometimes doable when you kill fast enough.

So please when you throw around the numbers, try to keep all factors in play.
Your way is good, and will work perfect. But other ways are also enough to beat the game, even when they aren't backed by min/max math.
 

SpaceViking

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My oddest RNG occurance was Behemoth getting wiped out by 3 head hits in a single turn whilst at 60%damge reduction. RNG BS at it's finest. However, RNG on my luck kicked in as my laptop shut down from overheating, meaning I had to restart the mission anyway.
In a tabletop game one time as we were doing an orbital drop our Archer got hit in the head 3 turns in a row with enough damage to just strip off all the armor. It spent the rest of the battle hiding behind this big rock and doing indirect fire.
 

Brother Diogenes

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Just jumping in to say that my best story of RNG whimsy (thus far) came toward the end of my second campaign playthrough, when my Grasshopper pilot scored three head-kills in one mission: two by punching and one by laser barrage.

I changed the pilot's callsign to "God Hand" and nicknamed the Grasshopper "Rockem Sockem."
 

Jade_Rook

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[Tabletop story] Playing in a grinder recently, I lost a leg to the most unlikely charge. I was in a 75 tonner (Bandersnatch) with full armor on the leg. Puny little 40 tonner does a 10 hex charge into me, 40 damage (200 damage in HBS terms). It will hurt, but I have plenty of armor to take it. Damage is rolled in 5 point groups so it should spread around my mech.

7 out of 8 groups go to what was my pristine leg. Leg is ripped off, automatic fall.

Two turns later, I manage to deal enough damage to the other mech to knock him over. He falls and gets a crit on his leg. Rolls a 12, leg blown off. We are both lying there next to each other... everyone at the table is laughing. It was a great time.
 

Doctor Machete

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Because basically i never said anything different to begin with. You started the whole discussion because i showed a use for Dual AC20+++ i never stated that they are the best tool for coring a mech. They have their advantages but there is better, but you don't need to optimize every last bit to beat this game. So AC20's are still viable but not the best tool.
Try to look over the edge of the plate sometimes, you don't need the best tools to complete something. A decent tool often is enough.
Fair enough. You're right and I apologize for misinterpreting your words.

For example what you completly ignore with your arguments, in most cases you will have a max. of 2 Precision Shots per round. Often you willl only have one, how good is your Stalker build with coring without Precision Shot? AC20's have the same problem, but they have much higher use when you are out of Morale because you can deliver a lot of dmg in a reliable way via Breaching shot. With the Stalker without precise Shot, i will just sandpaper a enemy mech in a lot of cases.
No, I don't ignore that. The first turns you build up morale while you fire LRMs and use your brawlers to spot and find a good position from where to jump. After than you can have two most of the time if you just kill one mech each turn, a -8 net resolve per turn using four pilots and one Comms++. And when not (usually because I used three PS last turn) you just don't fire (with the main damage dealers), so you hide while you're not firing (with the main damage dealers), avoiding combat until you have two PS again. Hiding or bracing, sensor locking, moving to another position, ... With my main damage dealers, when using these kind of lance, I never ever fire regular salvos against mechs. The thing is trying to minimize exposure, a bit like hit & run, but more like hit & kill or hit + hit & kill with first strike and overwhelming focused damage. And the rest of the lance used as backup and trash clearing (vehicles & lights). So for example you can go for the Head, if fail then go again for the head with a second similar mech; if first salvo succeeded then (if there are more targets in reach) going for the CT instead for the next one, so you can follow up with regular salvo +2 dmg 70-75 tube LRMs.

Breaching+multi with 2xAC20 is not reliable because if you miss then you do no damage at all, an on top of that the damage you do is at random locations. The result is very hard to predict, too much variation. With PS massed multi hit setups is the opposite. You may succeed or not, but if you fail your first salvo you can be pretty sure the target will have the aimed location damaged.

And how good is the non multi-breacher Stalker without PS? I'd say pretty damn good. My Stalker can sensor lock an out of LoS Demolisher so it's killed for sure with my LRM boat, for example. Once in a while I may not even fire once (with the Stalker) for the whole mission (perhaps at some turrets after killing all other targets, to save LRM ammo), doing only Sensor Lock jobs if the terrain favors indirect fire, and no mech in the whole lance being shot even once for the whole mission. That's the beauty: the same Skill which grants yout -1 init to your assault also gives you Sensor Lock. And although exclusive role as spotter is uncommon, using a mech as mixed killer/spotter is a very good combo and I do it all the time.

And i don't know how you do it, but i personally use the Brace Skill much more often then the Precise Shot skill. Because in the end it's often better to kill slower when you can tone down the dmg received enough to do the next mission without repairs.
Yeah, I also make good use of bracing, in addition to PS. What I don't use is regular salvos with my direct damage brawlers. I don't see how you do minimize damage returned when you are doing random damage at multiple foes at the same time. Slow attrition paystyle imo works very well when you cannot be returned fire (indirect fire), but in your case you're dealing the damage at ML/SRM range at multiple targets at the same time with unfocused damage. My approach is completely different, trying always to have numerical advantage and delaying combat if neccessary for that.

Your part with the Stab dmg isn't different when you use a SRM,. But the AC20 with Breaching Shot will hit somewere in most cases and will deal 100dmg + stab dmg to the target, thats difficult with 4x ML and 4x SRM6. Sure 2x SRM6+++ can deliver as much stab dmg (and more dmg) to a braced target with Evasion pips as a single AC20+++ hit will do. But you need to hit with a minimum of 12 SRM for this, so when you want to deliver 60 Stab dmg to a target you need 2x SRM6+++ to deliver it (when all missles hit) or one AC20+++ shot that will hit most times with breaching shot.
As said before I just won't fire a regular salvo against a mech, and much less if it's bulwarked+cover+braced. That way of multi+breaching works well against very soft targets, not much against hard ones. The AC20 will hit somewhere and deal 120 dmg, but unless lucky, a well maintained assault can take many of those kind of hits if they are without PS. And for the stab damage you remember the hit and forget the misses. With SRMs it is much harder to deal full stab damage (which btw I don't care much about it) but also it is much harder to do no stab damage at all, it is way more predictable. While if you miss your single AC20 you do no damage at all. And also I'm not firing 2xSRM6+++ vs your single AC20 but 4xSRM6+++ 6xML++, remember I'm not splitting damage and it's guaranteed it will do at the very least some significant damage because there are a lot of potential hits, and the sooner you remove a mech (and with better init against most other assaults and some heavies) the sooner you recover more morale, you minimize potential damage returned and you get more tactical choices because you have more space and less threats.

You also didn't account for the small fact that you have a max. of 1 Precise Shot in the first round of combat, maybe 2 when you didn't start the engagment asap. So you could have Sandpapered 3 extra Mechs with your 3 other mechs, maybe you shaved enough armor from the CT that 240 DMG to it will core even a Atlas. The game is a morphing RNG based environment that can't be calculated completly before a engagment, so don't try to do it. Fun Fact: I never manage to do more then 2 Brace or Precise Shot per round every single round, 2 is sometimes doable when you kill fast enough.
Are you ignoring I can sandblast too?. In your scenario of (let's say) only 235 armor+struct left in the CT, you have 0.20x0.20 = 4% of CT core with two regular salvos from two dual AC20 mechs using multi+breaching. Of course there are more combinations (like transferring damage from a ghost side torso and so on), but that also require very high damage being dealt before and luck, and if you dealt that damage before with your AC20s it means most likely you could be have being returned fire as well. While the rounds I don't fire I can easily be sensor locking while out of LoS and pounding with LRMs and only jump into LoS to fire when you do expect an almost certain kill. The mech can be actively useful when not firing. And when I go for the kill (one or two consecutive salvos) it is almost for certain I'll kill the mech without response from him. And if happens I did sandblast the mech like you (which I can do as well with LRMs) I may have more than 85% to single salvo kill him at 20% DR, only 6% @ 40% DR tough. But then with two salvos (same as your two dual multi AC20 firing) that 6% becomes 92% (instead 4%). Yep, when you have lots of hits, additional salvos increase the chances way more than when you have fewer hits.

And yes, you cannot completely calculate what will happen the whole engagement beforehand, but you can have a good estimation for local up to 4v4 scenarios if you have reliable-predictable setups (meaning LOTs of hits so the actual damage gets much closer to the average damage).

So please when you throw around the numbers, try to keep all factors in play.
Your way is good, and will work perfect. But other ways are also enough to beat the game, even when they aren't backed by min/max math.
I never said other ways are not good enough to beat the game, minmaxed or not, and I think the opposite: if you can complete the game using only light mechs or only AC2s then pretty much almost anything can work.
 

Barristan

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Played a couple of missions last night with wildly different results - also it turns out my best headshotting pilot is in my Raven and does it without precision shot!

First mission assassination mission - target was a Cyclops Z supported by 2 shreks, 1 LRM carrier and an Orion. Reinforcements were Zeus, Victor and 2 Thunderbolts

So I quickly focus down the supports - not needing any orion mech parts I just go straight for the CT. The reinforcements seem to be taking the long road round so quickly head for the Cyclops to try for a headshot. Sprint in from 2 sides (leaving the ECM bubble to provoke a shot to get him out of guarded) Stalker precision shots the head and take out RT, no hits on the head from 6 weapons. Highlander precision shots the head and takes out LT again no head hits from 4 weapons, and of course enough damage has gone through to the CT that the next shot from the Raven killed it. Oh well up to 3/5 Cyclops parts now. The reinforcements however - thunderbolts turned up first and each died to precision CT shots. It was a B variant Victor which I didn't have so tried headshotting again - to my surprise the Raven did it with his +10 dam LL and +10 dam med laser, not 1 but 2 headhits in a row! Again my pilots in Stalker and Highlander ripped the Zeus to shreds trying to get a headshot again - need to rotate my pilots I think ...

Second mission was a straight up battle in which again the same RVN pilot scored a double head hit against the first target Orion K.
 

Icewraith

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@Doctor Machete

The point of the AC/20 late game is to headshot mechs through 40% DR with ++/+++ damage models. The King Crab in particular is a non-SL mech that can pack 2 AC/20+++d and 4 SRM2++d, plus a ML or 2 so you’ve got something without ammo. The odds it outright ruins the opposing mech (at 40% DR) are around 1/3, the stability damage is excellent, and the chances of landing any head hit at all are still quite high. Ideal pilot is Coolant Vent + Sure Footed since it wants to be out in front.

I also favor an Atlas D with 1x AC/20+++d, 2x Large Laser ++d, and ?x SRM ?++d. (Don’t remember exact number of tubes). The extra range is quite nice for stripping evasion and finishing off vehicles or turrets that survive an LRM barrage.

The short-range Stalker is the assault king of headshots with no DR, but I find you can get most of the same power with 4x ML and 4x SRM 4. 2x ++stab PPCs add a ton of ranged/knockdown utility, and if you invest heavily in DHS (and a good heat exchanger and a Coolant Vent pilot) you can often alpha on not-hot maps (otherwise volley fire, or run SRM2s and more HS). This mech is ideal for a comm system, since my 4th mech is typically a Cyclops Z with 1 LRM20++d and 1LRM20+++ (stab).

Since it can’t mount a cockpit mod and loses too much tonnage to JJ, I prefer to keep the Z in the back where it gets shot at a lot less and is at a lower risk of being trapped, and the LRMs ensure it can fire indirectly regardless of terrain. The armor is typical of a 70 ton mech but I redistribute it to protect the weapons as much as possible. At endgame I keep 2 around in case one gets an arm knocked off mid-planet.

Mechs that aren’t destroyed outright by the initial volley(s) are either knocked unstable or have their head armor dangerously low. Depending on morale I can either go for a third called shot or use the LRM+ knockdown to get a called shot anyways.

With those designs in the rotation I found myself using the 6ML/4SRM6 Stalker less and less. The others were simply more versatile.

(With that said, I may need to go back and try out a Stalker fully loaded with ++d weapons. One of the other advantages of AC/20 builds is that you find 1-2 +++ you’re in business, whereas the headshot potential of a stock ML, a +5ML, and a +10ML are incredibly different and building up a sufficient stockpile takes awhile. They usually end up scattered across my mechs to eliminate the risk of losing a bunch at once.)
 

Corraidhin

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I've just discovered the joy of putting a master tactician in a fully ML Grasshopper with 6 MGs. Sensor lock on the way in, have lance mates soften up heavy enemies, then hop in and melt them with precision shot dissolving low armour. Half a dozen MGs guarantee crit city.
 

theCarthaginian

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I've just discovered the joy of putting a master tactician in a fully ML Grasshopper with 6 MGs. Sensor lock on the way in, have lance mates soften up heavy enemies, then hop in and melt them with precision shot dissolving low armour. Half a dozen MGs guarantee crit city.

I use a Firestarter for the same thing till a Murderbug appears in my garage.
 

smurfopax

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@Doctor Machete
@Icewraith
You have valid points. I know the Numbers shouldn't support it, but after 2 days of testing with my Dual AC20 King Crab and the Stalker, both with 10/10/10/10 pilots, i have to say i don't understand why but the King Crab is much better in headshotting then the 6ML, 4SRM Stalker. Both will headcap a enemy in 95% of the cases in the second round of Precision Shot to the head, but the King Crab manages it a lot more often in Round 1 already.
It is different when i go for the Center Torso, you were completly right, the Stalker manages to core enmies more reliable on the first volley then the King Crab. Overall i still prefer the King Crab, because i more often go for the head then i go for the CT. And it has more Armor.
 

Doctor Machete

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@Icewraith
First, I must point to my other thread about my mistake with SRM chances.


About your 1xAC20+++ 2xLL #xSRM#, if we assume a 1xAC20+++ 2xLL+++ 2xSRM4, it runs cold and has decent armor (with TEX/DHS), but why don't go for full LL range? you get similar performance from a 4xLL+++ 2xAC2++ as a base, allowing you to replace one or both AC2s for AC5s, depending on how aggressive you play.

For the Cyc-Z I do the same, LRMs, so JJs are not so beneficial and you barely generate any heat, even firing all the time, and can sometimes work as a finisher for very badly damaged foes.

The point you make about being hard to get a full stack of MLs++ and SRMs+++ is quite a good one. You only need two ++/+++ weapons for a fully armed dual AC20. And in addition you need TEX/DHS for a good performance ML/SRM Stalker.



@smurfopax
As before, first point to my mistake, to recognize I've been fooling myself XDDD

Now you comment, that otherwise I'd overstep due to lack of evidence or stats, makes much more sense to me. If you have two salvos available the Stalker is not so good as I thought but still is pretty good. And for CT core there is no comparison because the issue is mostly about lack of damage when dealing with full armored heavies and assaults. And besides that, more damage is super useful against turrets and vehicles. That's why LRM boats with +2 dmg are the best for that role, because they have indirect fire and very long range but also because they do a ton of damage.