Could Poland have defeated Soviet Union in any scenarios....

[Gunnarr]

Funny thing Hoi 4 has made someone I know believe that Poland could have actually defeated the Soviets somehow. He watched a youtube video

He is college educated.

Give me something to refute him please... I don't even know where to start...

 

[Sarmatia1871]

The 1919-1920 scenario works quite well.

 

[Gunnarr]

in hoi 3 or hoi 4 timeline!

 

[DukeDayve]

You mean in 1939 or thereabouts?

If the Soviet Union invaded Poland alone (as in no Germany invading from the west) and Poland could put their full force against them, I'm sure they could do quite well in repelling them for a while. Soviet tactics of the time basically consisted of "send 10,000 men at that trench in a zerg rush, then 10,000 more if they all get cut down". Finland did, and their army was tiny compared to Poland's army, which was one of the largest in the world was it not?

So, in an alternate reality, Soviet Union invades Poland, Nazi Germany supplies them with anti-tank weapons to deal with the SU's massive amount of tanks, Poland fights SU to a stalemate with huge casualties on both sides, Soviets give up.

That's one way it could work.

 

[CruelDwarf]

Soviet tactics of the time basically consisted of "send 10,000 men at that trench in a zerg rush, then 10,000 more if they all get cut down".

I applaud to this deep knowledge of the Soviet military doctrine? Do I need to explain that this have nothing in common with actual reality?

 

[Cavalry]

Poland could win if only Marshall Zhukov use the "zerg strategy"! In real life he used Russian version of blitzkrieg!

 

[cpreston5]

Well firstly the USSR had a less dangerous starting point. Worse terrain than the Western border, lower quality transport routes, far away from Warsaw and Kraków and the major industrial centres, and no massive natural salient to attack.

Second, the Soviet Army was pretty poor pre-1942 when it comes to offensive operations, and even then the first offensive operations they successfully undertook in the war were deep inside their own territory.

Poland doesn't have as hostile a climate as Finland or the benefit of the front being limited to a few natural choke points, but they do have a larger army, and more armour, aircraft etc. Plus I think Poland would attract more foreign aid than Finland.

Overall I think that assuming this invasion occurs before the Red Army had learned how to crush entire army groups in single offensives, Poland could hold the Soviets off and obtain a reasonably palatable peace agreement.

 

[Kurfürst]

Funny thing Hoi 4 has made someone I know believe that Poland could have actually defeated the Soviets somehow. He watched a youtube video

Depends on what he means by Poland defeating Soviet Union. Defeat as in march to Moscow and depose Stalin? No chance in hell. Defeat as in fight the Red Army to a standstill and then negotiate a worse peace than the SU would like, that's far from impossible.

Terrain in Eastern Poland is horrible for offensive action. There's marshes in the middle, north is heavily wooded and kinda marshy with some lakes thrown in for good measure, and while the south looks OKish, it's a hilly, relatively sparsely populated land with lousy infrastructure. Polish army was kinda short on heavy equipment, due to Poland being poor and lacking the industry to manufacture the heavy stuff at home. That might be an asset while fighting in such a bad terrain. It would enable the Poles to run circles around the heavy, cumbersome soviets. Like the finns did in the Winter War.

 

[Klausewitz]

The 1919-1920 scenario works quite well.

1919-20 was not for nothing regarded as a miracle by the Holy Virgin.
It was not a comfortable victory, it was damnable close.

 

[Klausewitz]

If the Soviet Union invaded Poland alone (as in no Germany invading from the west) and Poland could put their full force against them, I'm sure they could do quite well in repelling them for a while. Soviet tactics of the time basically consisted of "send 10,000 men at that trench in a zerg rush, then 10,000 more if they all get cut down". Finland did, and their army was tiny compared to Poland's army, which was one of the largest in the world was it not?

Finnland had the SU by the short and curlies because troops mostly from the southern SU, competly unsuited to winter warfare, bumbled along the road in DEEEP winter and got massacre and cut off again and again and again.
I don't see the Polish pull that off, especially since Eastern Poland is not half as harsh and because the SU would have scouts that know the area .

 

[keynes2.0]

Soviet tactics of the time basically consisted of "send 10,000 men at that trench in a zerg rush, then 10,000 more if they all get cut down".

While the Soviets had serious command problems, this ridiculous meme shouldn't be used in serious discussions. It shouldn't be used at all but especially not if someone asks a real question about history.

 

[Pyoro]

I just can't see that scenario happening. Germany sitting around while the Soviets invade Poland? Goes against pretty much anything the Nazis ever did. I mean, even if Poland managed to fight off the SU, which is probably as possible as anything is, in theory, fighting a two-frontier war was never a winning scenario for them; and even if the Nazis for some reason decided to perhaps finish internal campaigns first or got distracted by something else, I just don't see them sitting a Polish-Soviet war out. Heck, I'd say the chances that in such a scenario the French would've been "well, we'd rather have the Nazis fight the Soviets over Poland than get mixed up in that one" is bigger than Germany not doing anything at all in the first place.

 

[Klausewitz]

@Pyoro:
Why not?
Slav killing slav and Germany then rolling in taking on whoever took less damaging in the fratricide... what is not to like?

 

[ConjurerDragon]

Poland could win if only Marshall Zhukov use the "zerg strategy"! In real life he used Russian version of blitzkrieg!

In 1939 Zhukov was not yet a Marshall and he was occupied with fighting against the Japanese at Khalkin Gol where he first tried the tactics he would later refine against Germany:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgy_Zhukov#Khalkhin_Gol_to_Barbarossa

I just can't see that scenario happening. Germany sitting around while the Soviets invade Poland? Goes against pretty much anything the Nazis ever did. I mean, even if Poland managed to fight off the SU, which is probably as possible as anything is, in theory, fighting a two-frontier war was never a winning scenario for them; and even if the Nazis for some reason decided to perhaps finish internal campaigns first or got distracted by something else, I just don't see them sitting a Polish-Soviet war out. Heck, I'd say the chances that in such a scenario the French would've been "well, we'd rather have the Nazis fight the Soviets over Poland than get mixed up in that one" is bigger than Germany not doing anything at all in the first place.

Germany not declaring war on Poland at the historic date? That´s easy - Poland accepted the deal to have the free city of Danzig reunited with Germany and to allow Germany to build their desired tollfree highway that would have connected Pommerania and East Prussia.

France would actively support Poland because of the Franco-Polish alliance that was the reason for them to aid Poland during the 1921/22 Polish-soviet war
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franco-Polish_alliance_(1921)

And with Churchill being the communist hating guy he was before WW2 the UK would at least have a friendly neutrality to Poland if not support them too.

 

[hagagaga]

Poland couldn't have won, but they could have made Soviet victory very unpleasant. That's what Finland did.

 

[DoomBunny]

This actually strikes me as a very interesting scenario to game out. Even if the outcome was onesided Soviet victory it would still be an interesting experience.

You mean in 1939 or thereabouts?

If the Soviet Union invaded Poland alone (as in no Germany invading from the west) and Poland could put their full force against them, I'm sure they could do quite well in repelling them for a while. Soviet tactics of the time basically consisted of "send 10,000 men at that trench in a zerg rush, then 10,000 more if they all get cut down". Finland did, and their army was tiny compared to Poland's army, which was one of the largest in the world was it not?

So, in an alternate reality, Soviet Union invades Poland, Nazi Germany supplies them with anti-tank weapons to deal with the SU's massive amount of tanks, Poland fights SU to a stalemate with huge casualties on both sides, Soviets give up.

That's one way it could work.

Finland lost. Despite the advantage of terrain, fixed defences, lack of Russian Winter preparation, and the Russians deploying second line formations initially.

That's not to say I disagree that Poland could put up a decent fight, but there were important reasons beyond Soviet incompetence as to why the Winter War went as it did.

 

[keynes2.0]

Finland had no hope of foreign support showing up. Germany sold them some weapons but Germany was too busy with France and Britain to subsidize Finland. If Poland was in a one front war and the Soviets got bogged down, the Soviets would be very afraid of foreign intervention either economic or direct military intervention. This gives the Poles bargaining leverage the Finns didn't have.

 

[Klausewitz]

But is it realistic to expect the British or French to take a time out from their staring match with Germany to piss off the maybe ours/maybe Germany's Soviets?

 

[ConjurerDragon]

But is it realistic to expect the British or French to take a time out from their staring match with Germany to piss off the maybe ours/maybe Germany's Soviets?

In a hypothetical scenario where Poland is not unreasonable and concedes that Danzig is german and the Soviets/Russians are the ancient enemy there is no need for a german invasion of Poland, no need for a british guarantee for Poland, no need for Hitler to cancel the Anglo-German naval agreement. And Soviets that invade Poland without agreeing to share the spoils with Germany are certainly not Germany´s Soviets.

 

[keynes2.0]

In a hypothetical scenario where Poland is not unreasonable and concedes that Danzig is german and the Soviets/Russians are the ancient enemy there is no need for a german invasion of Poland,

...Hitler demands something new 3 months later and the war happens anyway. Take your filthy fascist narrative somewhere else please. It's possible to discuss alternative history without blindly repeating nazi propoganda as truth. Everyone else in the thread managed. Give it a try.

no need for Hitler to cancel the Anglo-German naval agreement. .

Sure, and the Lindberg baby would still be alive.