Could Germany have conquered Moscow? And if it does, will the USSR surrender or keep on fighting?

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And how will it work in HOI4 ?

This thread has two parts. First, whether Germany could have taken Moscow. Second, whether the fall of Moscow means the USSR comes to the negotiating table or keeps on fighting.

The German Army had two heads, the OKW, led by Hitler himself which was the high command of the armed forces, and the OKH or high command of the Army, presided by Franz Halder. This dual structure would have fatal consequences for the Reich later on the war effort. Both men could not be more different than the other. One came from a poor background, was a foreigner and had limited strategic knowledge of military affairs. The other was a product of the prestigious prussian high command of the old guard and defended the interests of the Army with a cold and astute logic. Very sober and professorial in both manners and appearance, Hitler once referred to Halder as the "chronic know-it-all".

Halder ordered three separate military studies of how to invade the USSR. After analyzing the research, he concluded that Moscow had to be the main objective of the Wehrmacht. Him and many in the chief of staff believed that the capture of the capital not only would deny the Soviets the seat of their goverment but also an important center of armament industries and communications. In his opinion, only the real threat of losing Moscow would drive the Soviets to concentrate most their forces around it, giving Germany the opportunity to encircle and destroy them.

But for many reasons, Hitler was very interested in the flanks of the USSR towards Leningrad and to Ukraine and beyond. In the north lay the vital baltic ports and the craddle of bolshevism and in the south the granary of the USSR and the Donetz basin, rich in resources. Hitler even told his generals that the capture of the Soviet capital ''is not that important''. He cited, after all, that the Napoleonic campaign in Russia launched only 120+ years before him had failed in Moscow. He boasted that "only completely old brains, stuck in ideas of the last century, could have any interest in taking the capital".

Fuhrer Directive 21, also called Operation Barbarossa, meant that the Wehrmacht would launch three simultaneous axis of attack headed toward Leningrad, Moscow and Kiev. However, Moscow was a secondary objective. When Army Group Center reached their first main objective, Smolensk, two thirds of the way to Moscow from the german border, they would stop and send their panzers to the north and south. Only after the flank regions were secured, the offensive against Moscow could start again.

The Wehrmacht captured Smolensk 24 days after Barbarossa began in June, on the 16 of July. It was a fast and deep penetration of almost 750 km from the german border into the soviet heartlands. And exactly one month after Germany invaded the Soviet Union, the Wehrmacht attacked for the first time Moscow, by air, deploying the Luftwaffe. It was due to Hitler's calling that the Soviet capital be razed to the ground. For this mission, high command sent to the frontlines 127 bombers with 104 tonnes of highly explosive bombs and 46,000 incendiary bombs.

While Hitler was thrilled that his armored panzer spearheads were almost 800 km deep within the USSR, the further they advanced, the more uneasy he became. He was extremely worried about his flanks and was scared that the long gaps that were opened between the panzers and the infantry - in some sectors of Army Group Center they were as big as 160 km wide! - would be the end of the encirclement maneuvers performed by his forces. In light of this, he signed Fuhrer Directive 33 on the 19 of July and four days later, a complementary Directive 33A. In them, he called for the bombing of Moscow and a complete halt to the land offensive over the Soviet capital. The rush for Moscow, was essentially over. It wasn't a complete surprise for many as the original plan called for a temporary halt to the operations of Army Group Center on the way to Moscow. But until then, Halder and the rest of the german high command wrongly believed that once the time came, they would be able to convince the Fuhrer otherwise to abandon this idea. It was a gross miscalculation.

To be continued later...

The moment had finally arrived. Army Group Center reached Smolensk on the 16th of July, their first main objective in Barbarossa. Panzer Group 3 led by Hoth headed to the north of the city and then turned to the right in an attempt to encircle the soviet armies around the city. Panzer Group 2 led by Guderian was supposed to head north too and then turn left to link up with Hoth and complete the encirclement. However, he was fixated on an advance over Moscow and instead headed north to Yelnia, the highlands before the capital. This gap meant that about 100,000 soviet troops managed to escape the trap. Hitler, who was updated continously on the breach, was furious and this had great weight in his decision to put a brake on the offensive against Moscow. He scolded Fedor Von Bock, head of Army Group Centre by phone and sent Keitel to his headquarters on the Eastern Front to make sure the encirclement was executed. Still, by the time Hoth closed the ring on Smolensk on the 26th of July, 310,000 communist soldiers were taken prisoners and 3205 tanks and 3120 artillery pieces were captured: the results impressed even the Fuhrer.

Now, the classic debate of "Moscow in the center or Leningrad and Ukraine in the flanks" was started again between Hitler and Halder. The general wrote "the constant interferences of the Fuhrer are becoming a permanent annoyance. Once again he is playing as Lord of War and bothering us with absurd ideas". Still, Halder agreed in part with Hitler's position. He recognized that the flanks of AGC had to be secured and even recommended to Hitler that the panzer spearheads stop to let the infantry catch up to them. However, he believed that Hitler's idea to send the panzers of the center to the north and southern flanks was a disaster of a plan. His many protests finally managed to convince the Fuhrer on the 28th of July to postpone the deployment of the panzers to the flanks but Hitler still mantained AGC on standby on the road to Moscow.

To be continued later...
 
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Axe99

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There's a huge amount of ifs and buts to be taken into account, but I'd say that given the right build-up, and the Soviets making the wrong moves, the answer would be yes. If the Germans focussed solely on taking Moscow, then almost definitely, although I'm not sure it would be a terribly sensible course of action (Napoleon took Moscow as well, and look where that got him - I know things were very different in 1941/42, but if the Germans just bee-line for Moscow, then the Soviets aren't likely to feel like they have to capitulate). Now, if the Germans took Leningrad, Moscow and Stalingrad, and everything west of that, and were willing to come to reasonable terms (the rest of what was Poland, the Baltic states and maybe Western Ukraine?), then it I think there's a chance, but the position they took historically gave the Soviets little choice but to resist come what may.
 
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uther4117

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I think one big hit is not enough to put Soviets down but the combination of repeating hits would definetely. Consider losing Moscow along with Stalin and the chaos and morale effect of it would shatter them.. You can't invade them by force you need to take the spirit. so they(people) must think there is no hope/chance/point left to defend.
 
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Milten

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If they didn't forget winter equipment and got more forces to Moscow front they could get it, USSR considered such option and evacuated government in hurry. It wouldn't make USSR surrender at this point though. They didn't care much about territory and human loses, war dynamic was more important for them.
Soviet command was terrified in first year of war when Reich was full Blitzkrieg with conquering cities and capturing entire divisions every week, some sources even suggest that they were ready to capitulate and give Hitler everything west from Volga. But at the moment of battle for Moscow war became stale enough to make them ready to stand until last man.
 

dav77-b

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Moscow is a key logistical point. For winning a quick war , Holding it is good.

In my opinion the key to win in russia is to destroy russias logistic, the agrar industry and prevent them for recieving lend lease.

1) Germany should not start the war and wait till russia is invading some eastern europeans.
This way Germany can act as liberator and russia gets no american lend lease.

2 ) south russia is priority as most agrar industry ia located there.

3) Bomber and undercover actions can be used to destroy infrastructur in the north.

4) hold the south, dig in and wait.
 
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No idea

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I think there is nothing that forbade Germany from taking Moscow IF they had started Barbarossa earlier and the quartermasters had gotten enough fuel for Thypoon. That said, taking Moscow wouldnt have made Stalin surrender.
 
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PhroX

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I think there is nothing that forbade Germany from taking Moscow IF they had started Barbarossa earlier and the quartermasters had gotten enough fuel for Thypoon. That said, taking Moscow wouldnt have made Stalin surrender.

By starting Barbarossa earlier, do you mean in 1940? Because starting earlier in '41 was pretty much impossible due to the weather.

As for the original question - no, taking it was not feasible. German didn't have to troops or resources to make a successful strike on Moscow.

If they had somehow made it, does it cause a surrender? Not immediately. But the impact on the Soviet logistics does hinder their ability to fight so it's possible that Germany could've reached a point where the SU would negotiate as a result of further fighting. I would still put things in favor of the SU, but taking Moscow would give Germany a chance.

The only wild card is whether such a high profile loss would've caused dissent amongst the Soviet leadership, potentially resulting in a coup to replace Stalin, who's position was somewhat fragile in '41 due to German success.
 
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Saint Gwynllyw

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And how will it work in HOI4 ?

This thread has two parts. First, whether Germany could have taken Moscow. Second, whether the fall of Moscow means the USSR comes to the negotiating table or keeps on fighting.

The German Army had two heads, the OKW, led by Hitler himself which was the high command of the armed forces, and the OKH or high command of the Army, presided by Franz Halder. This dual structure would have fatal consequences for the Reich later on the war effort. Both men could not be more different than the other. One came from a poor background, was a foreigner and had limited strategic knowledge of military affairs. The other was a product of the prestigious prussian high command of the old guard and defended the interests of the Army with a cold and astute logic. Very sober and professorial in both manners and appearance, Hitler once referred to Halder as the "chronic know-it-all".

Halder ordered three separate military studies of how to invade the USSR. After analyzing the research, he concluded that Moscow had to be the main objective of the Wehrmacht. Him and many in the chief of staff believed that the capture of the capital not only would deny the Soviets the seat of their goverment but also an important center of armament industries and communications. In his opinion, only the real threat of losing Moscow would drive the Soviets to concentrate most their forces around it, giving Germany the opportunity to encircle and destroy them.

But for many reasons, Hitler was very interested in the flanks of the USSR towards Leningrad and to Ukraine and beyond. In the north lay the vital baltic ports and the craddle of bolshevism and in the south the granary of the USSR and the Donetz basin, rich in resources. Hitler even told his generals that the capture of the Soviet capital ''is not that important''. He cited, after all, that the Napoleonic campaign in Russia launched only 120+ years before him had failed in Moscow. He boasted that "only completely old brains, stuck in ideas of the last century, could have any interest in taking the capital".

Fuhrer Directive 21, also called Operation Barbarossa, meant that the Wehrmacht would launch three simultaneous axis of attack headed toward Leningrad, Moscow and Kiev. However, Moscow was a secondary objective. When Army Group Center reached their first main objective, Smolensk, two thirds of the way to Moscow from the german border, they would stop and send their panzers to the north and south. Only after the flank regions were secured, the offensive against Moscow could start again.

The Wehrmacht captured Smolensk 24 days after Barbarossa began in June, on the 16 of July. It was a fast and deep penetration of almost 750 km from the german border into the soviet heartlands. And exactly one month after Germany invaded the Soviet Union, the Wehrmacht attacked for the first time Moscow, by air, deploying the Luftwaffe. It was due to Hitler's calling that the Soviet capital be razed to the ground. For this mission, high command sent to the frontlines 127 bombers with 104 tonnes of highly explosive bombs and 46,000 incendiary bombs.

While Hitler was thrilled that his armored panzer spearheads were almost 800 km deep within the USSR, the further they advanced, the more uneasy he became. He was extremely worried about his flanks and was scared that the long gaps that were opened between the panzers and the infantry - in some sectors of Army Group Center they were as big as 160 km wide! - would be the end of the encirclement maneuvers performed by his forces. In light of this, he signed Fuhrer Directive 33 on the 19 of July and four days later, a complementary Directive 33A. In them, he called for the bombing of Moscow and a complete halt to the land offensive over the Soviet capital. The rush for Moscow, was essentially over. It wasn't a complete surprise for many as the original plan called for a temporary halt to the operations of Army Group Center on the way to Moscow. But until then, Halder and the rest of the german high command wrongly believed that once the time came, they would be able to convince the Fuhrer otherwise to abandon this idea.



Two words, Napo leon.
 
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Saint Gwynllyw

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Moscow is a key logistical point. For winning a quick war , Holding it is good.

In my opinion the key to win in russia is to destroy russias logistic, the agrar industry and prevent them for recieving lend lease.

1) Germany should not start the war and wait till russia is invading some eastern europeans.
This way Germany can act as liberator and russia gets no american lend lease.

2 ) south russia is priority as most agrar industry ia located there.

3) Bomber and undercover actions can be used to destroy infrastructur in the north.

4) hold the south, dig in and wait.


1) Germany did do that. To millions of Ukrainians and Baltic's Germany was initially seen as a liberator.

2) South Russia infrastructure is diabolical.

3) you need that infrastruture to capture and hold the USSR

4)hope you dont get encircled more like.
 
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No idea

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By starting Barbarossa earlier, do you mean in 1940? Because starting earlier in '41 was pretty much impossible due to the weather.

As for the original question - no, taking it was not feasible. German didn't have to troops or resources to make a successful strike on Moscow.

If they had somehow made it, does it cause a surrender? Not immediately. But the impact on the Soviet logistics does hinder their ability to fight so it's possible that Germany could've reached a point where the SU would negotiate as a result of further fighting. I would still put things in favor of the SU, but taking Moscow would give Germany a chance.

The only wild card is whether such a high profile loss would've caused dissent amongst the Soviet leadership, potentially resulting in a coup to replace Stalin, who's position was somewhat fragile in '41 due to German success.

Barbarossa could have started late May early June if not by Hitlers going to Mussolinnins rescue in the Balkans. Late May early June the "mud Season" is gone in most places, and that would have given the germans 3 or even 4 more weeks of good weather.

On any case, the panzer spearheads were first halted in their drive to Moscow due lack of fuel. Extreme cold and soviet counterattacks came later. So, I still think Moscow could have been taken if at least those two things would have met (more time and more fuel in the panzer divisions)
 
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Same question again Magnus ;-)

Yes they could have got moscow if..... and no the Soviets would have continued to fight

What do you mean ? I have never before made an specific thread about the battle and fall of Moscow and its consequences. I'll write the rest of the OP thread later when I have more time at night.

Fall of Moscow =/= Operation Barbarossa
 

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The delayed attack on Moscow was basically due to the unresolved flanks. The Wehrmacht could have taken Leningrad in July if the attack had been more determined. Failing to seize Leningrad left the northern flank of Moscow open. Hitler then decided to divert his panzers south to secure the southern flank. That was of course stupid and the tanks only clogged the roads not contributing anything to the capture of Kiev.

To answer your first question: In order to capture Moscow, both flanks need to be secured. That could have been achieved, but due to various mistakes wasn't. Austrian historian Heinz Magenheimer wrote some interesting stuff about the OKW wasting 8-10 days in summer of 1941, mainly due to overconfidence. They believed that the Soviets were already beaten and thus lacked the necessary determination. This is not mainly Hitler's fault and probably contributed to his ousting of the OKW leadership in 1942.

The second question is impossible to answer. The consequences of capturing Moscow would be huge IMHO (political, morale, industry, logistics...). Might have well changed the outcome of the war, but it's not possible to make any definite statements on that. Anyone who claims to know all implications of such blow is full of crap.
 
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Swinds

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I was only Teasing Magnus no offense intended.

If they had attacked sooner, made better preparations and sent more replacements to the front line. Ultimately IMHO even if thy had done this and captured Moscow they would still have lost the war.

This is not to say Moscow is not of major importance to the Russians, it would be a massive loss. IMHO the battle of Moscow would have been a massive drain on German resources that would have been mincer of man and machine.
 

angelosnau

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If they had focused their attack on Moscow and concentrated more forces on that front they could have.It wouldn't be much use though,as the Russians would still have huge expanses of land and a huge army. Russia doesn't fall by just capturing Moscow. After Napoleon everybody should know that. Clausewitz says that Russia is unconquerable. Basically the Geman offensive stopped at the following three cities:Leningrad,Moscow,Stalingrad. The German army was not well prepared for long-term in-city fighting.
 
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ponasozis

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There were german troops in red square at one brief moment during the war
but hitler told army to turn around and head for stalingrad instead of continuing to push for moscow his decision to do so is still being questioned by historians today
his military staff was also more then annoyed by this decision


but frankly i don t think taking out moscow would have hindered soviets all that much
stalin and his command staff had their underground escape route and could coordinate the control of soviet union in ural mountains as bad as in moscow
 
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WSnova

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They would have gotten a larger Stalingrad before Stalingrad was cool.

And protecting your flanks is usually a good thing I think. But yeah Germans should have left a big army on their back..
 
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No idea

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There were german troops in red square at one brief moment during the war
but hitler told army to turn around and head for stalingrad instead of continuing to push for moscow his decision to do so is still being questioned by historians today
his military staff was also more then annoyed by this decision


but frankly i don t think taking out moscow would have hindered soviets all that much
stalin and his command staff had their underground escape route and could coordinate the control of soviet union in ural mountains as bad as in moscow

Uh? In the red square? The farthest the german troops reached was the outskirts of Moscow. And that was achieved by a recon platoon far ahead their force main body. Nowadays I think there is a monument in Moscow that marks the farthest advance.
 
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Loke

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Yes they could have conquered Moscow and they keep on fighting.
 
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