Conundrum, or I miss 1.07

[Iasius]

Novgorod, vanilla, sept 5th beta. First 10 years easy/normal then very hard/normal.

Year  Sta Income                    CTax Manu   No Prov     BB        Tech     IN   PE  TE  T%  StaC   MPp/support    
1450  0   13.8  3.4  0.9  0= 18.7d  57   0      12+0+0 = 12  1.5/38   1-1-2-2  2.8  24  36  X   215    24/ 35
1505  +2  29.2  9.0  1.4  0= 39.6d  173  0      28+0+0 = 28 14.0/39   2-2-2-3  9.4  29  32  X   548    74/110

I was at more than 10% war exhaustion in 1500 so I took the 1505 data instead. This is where I'm at right now. Infra 4 should be done somewhere in the 1530s.

Political map
Religious map

I think Austria will be quite huge after their inheritances and England still has French culture!
So far this has been a very fun game, but I'm way behind in tech compared to my Teutonic Order game, but of course then I had 3 CoTs quite early (4 by 1499) with them and was latin tech.

A question: Where do you see your share of world trade?

 

[unmerged(6147)]

A question: Where do you see your share of world trade?

Answer: Nowhere!

What you do is go to page 14 in the ledger. Then at the bottom of column 1 you will find your total percentage of world trade. On the bottom of column 2 the total of the world trade. The second one will be close to the number of COTs times 100. Say there are 25 COTs then the latter will be 2500 (or slightly less because there are almost always empty slots in some COTs). Now I divide the first figure with the second. Say I have 500% and the total trade is 2500%, then I divide 500 by 2500 = 20%. In this case it was of course easy to see that 500 is one fifth of 2500.

A more exact method would be take the value of the COTs into consideration as well, but that would be much more diffcult, or should I say: much more laborious.

I'll be very interested to see your stats in 1550 - the "explorer year" I think it is time for Lawkeeper to eat his hat... (ah, if only he had ever bet that )

 

[unmerged(6147)]

Novgorod, vanilla, sept 5th beta.

I see you have battled the Swedes succesfully and taken yourself all down to the Black Sea already. Well played!

But Muscovy is still there. I hope you know their existence stops you from becoming Russia.

In my game I broke truce and immediately annexed them after having won the first war, I did not want them to grew stronger and then DOW me again.

 

[unmerged(25696)]

I'll be very interested to see your stats in 1550 - the "explorer year" I think it is time for Lawkeeper to eat his hat... (ah, if only he had ever bet that )

Hehe, I don't wear any hat.

And I'll put an exception : valid for all countries except a role-played Muscovy.

 

[Iasius]

I diploannexed them in 1521 and became Russia. It's currently 1523.
I don't think I'll expand much until I get cores, I'm at 13 BB. Getting a corridor to Siberia would take way too much BB.
Good news: I got another deflation event bringing my inflation down to 5.8. Let the teching begin.


These are my current slider settings:
aristocracy = 8
centralization = 5
innovative = 3
mercantilism = 3
offensive = 4
land = 10
quality = 4
serfdom = 8
I have gotten 3 deflation events already, but I got 5 of those increase innovative for -2 stab or decrease for +1 stab events and all of them right in the middle of wars with WE above 10% . I'd prefer innovative 5 or 6 right now, but I guess not everything can go according to plan.

In other news: Georgia has 7 provinces currently!

 

[unmerged(9146)]

A more exact method would be take the value of the COTs into consideration as well, but that would be much more diffcult, or should I say: much more laborious.

Hm, it might be more difficult and more laborious (which in fact it's not, see below), but it would actually give you your share in the world trade. The number you calculate unfortunately is pretty much meaningless.

If there were only two CoTs, one with the value of 10000d and the other with the value of 10d, and you would have a full monopoly in the first one and wouldn't trade at all in the other, would it mean your share in the world trade is 50%? Of course it wouldn't.

If you want to find out your share in the world trade, you can do the following: take the value of your trade (this can be found in the income breakdown - page 9 of the ledger under "Trade" heading). Take the value of the world trade (page 14, botton row, where the total trade value of all CoTs is listed). Divide the first one by the latter.
Since it's much easier to monopolize small CoTs, I would expect these two numbers to be significantly different, and the actual trade share to be lower than the number you calculate.

 

[Iasius]

I see you have battled the Swedes succesfully and taken yourself all down to the Black Sea already. Well played!

But Muscovy is still there. I hope you know their existence stops you from becoming Russia.

In my game I broke truce and immediately annexed them after having won the first war, I did not want them to grew stronger and then DOW me again.

I was never able to beat them until after 1500 because they had as big an army as I and they had leaders. Shortly before 1500 I had to abort a war against them and take Bogutjar and Vorones which I didn't really want because Genoa(leader)/Denmark/Modena declared war. I was able to take Crimea, Kaffa and Kerch in a defensive war then by invading Norway as well.
Shortly after 1500 I was successful in battling the Muscovites by controlling two provinces of their 5 remaining ones and massive war score. They always attacked Novgorod over the river and I had 50,000 troops there.
They offered all their provinces except Muscovy and I accepted. In 1506 I DoW again and vassalized them after a quick victory. One click towards aristo in 1519 and 120,000 troops at 100% maintenance allowed me to diploannex in 1521.
I didn't want to force annex, my BB is high enough.

One other thing, I'll DoW Golden Horde and take Samara and Vladimir soon I think. That gold should be worth the 3 BB.

 

[unmerged(6147)]

I was never able to beat them until after 1500

But how did you get out of the first war against them? I gather they DOWed you as they almost always do.

 

[Iasius]

White peace in 1421 after I recaptured Novgorod. I allied with Poland/Lithuania right at the start, they helped there.
Here's some data on what I spent money on until 1505.

Edited graph to link instead of inline.

 

[Norrefeldt]

BTW, I am still missing stats from Norre, Notomol, Strip and BBD. And Fodoron, haven't heard from you for some days now.

Year  Monthly Income Manus  cities   BB    Tech         IN    PE  TE  StaC    
1505  38d   		1    21      2,5  3- 2- 2- 3    3,9%  33  39  508  
1525  55d   	  	2    24      0,7  3- 2- 3- 3    0,0%  42  45  393  
1553  72d       	4    34     11,8  6- 2- 3- 4    5,1%  56  48  1197

I truly suck at teching fast. I haven't had the time to play the last few days but I get on with it. I can see a few mistakes I made: not getting Novgorod ASAP, it was owned by a scare Poland. Not owning Samara fast enough. Researching land 3, instead of just waiting for it. I never inherited GH since it was a 15 provinces strong Crimea down there instead. I have generally only taken the rich provinces, and therefore cut up Crimea in three parts. The wars I have waged have been short and easy, so I don't think I lost much time there. Any advise is welcome. I play vh/c.

 

[unmerged(6147)]

Hm, it might be more difficult and more laborious (which in fact it's not, see below), but it would actually give you your share in the world trade. The number you calculate unfortunately is pretty much meaningless.

If there were only two CoTs, one with the value of 10000d and the other with the value of 10d, and you would have a full monopoly in the first one and wouldn't trade at all in the other, would it mean your share in the world trade is 50%? Of course it wouldn't.

If you want to find out your share in the world trade, you can do the following: take the value of your trade (this can be found in the income breakdown - page 9 of the ledger under "Trade" heading). Take the value of the world trade (page 14, botton row, where the total trade value of all CoTs is listed). Divide the first one by the latter.
Since it's much easier to monopolize small CoTs, I would expect these two numbers to be significantly different, and the actual trade share to be lower than the number you calculate.

Thanks Robin.

But your statement " The number you calculate unfortunately is pretty much meaningless." is of course an exaggeration. In practice - as opposed to your unrealistic example - the number will not be that far off and thus rather meaningful. Not the least because some of the American COTs tend to be large. And those are the prime objects of true monopoling. In fact, having say 14 or 20 of the 20 slots in Zacatecas after having removed all or all but one of the indians is the single best investment in the whole game. Unfortunately it does not last that many decades

Also, if one wants to be perfect, and you like that I know , one cannot always do exactly as you say. Because the page 14 number is the actual one while the page 9 is for the previous year/months.

 

[unmerged(6147)]

White peace in 1421 after I recaptured Novgorod. I allied with Poland/Lithuania right at the start, they helped there.

I don't get this. This is what people say now and again when they comment on their Novgorod games: that they "prefer" to ally with Sweden, or TO or Poland and so on.

I have found it impossible to ally anyone at all at the start. What happens is

1. You start up the game and pause immediately
2. Good news: You have 1 diplomat!
3. Bad news: no one will accept your alliance proposal
4. You instead make a RM with e.g. Poland with the intent of getting into their alliance later on
5. You unpause the game
6. Russia (and Sweden) DOWs you
7. After a couple of months you have another diplomat
8. You inspect the diplo screen and see that e.g. Poland is already in an alliance and it won't help you to join that alliance, that will not make them take part in your war

So what is the secret?

 

[unmerged(6147)]

Here's some data on what I spent money on until 1505:

Hey man! What are these figures? I think I read that you have spent 29 million ducats in total by 1505... Quite impressing

 

[Iasius]

I don't know what the secret is, I wasn't sure whether I'd reload until I got into an alliance, but in this game I succeded in joining their alliance on January 1st 1419 the first time I tried. This time I also had to DoW Sweden myself in December 1420, it seemed a good opportunity since I couldn't see any Swedish troops in Finland. That war lasted eleven years though.
Maybe it had something to do with me starting at easy/normal and only later switching to very hard after I made peace with Sweden.

That data is taken from the savegame, as you can see from the cost of 50,000 for a bailiff you should divide by 1000 to arrive at the actual ducats. The monarch boni aren't included either.
I just got done with the income data until 1505.

 

[unmerged(6147)]

Year  Monthly Income Manus  cities   BB    Tech         IN    PE  TE  StaC    
1505  38d   		1    21      2,5  3- 2- 2- 3    3,9%  33  39  508  
1525  55d   	  	2    24      0,7  3- 2- 3- 3    0,0%  42  45  393  
1553  72d       	4    34     11,8  6- 2- 3- 4    5,1%  56  48  1197

I truly suck at teching fast. I haven't had the time to play the last few days but I get on with it. I can see a few mistakes I made: not getting Novgorod ASAP, it was owned by a scare Poland. Not owning Samara fast enough. Researching land 3, instead of just waiting for it. I never inherited GH since it was a 15 provinces strong Crimea down there instead. I have generally only taken the rich provinces, and therefore cut up Crimea in three parts. The wars I have waged have been short and easy, so I don't think I lost much time there. Any advise is welcome. I play vh/c.

Well, from our figures it doesn't appear that I should be giving you advice on fast teching. BTW, you did read what Lawkeeper wrote above? He indicated that he would be able to have 17-17-6-6 as Novgorod in 1550, if he went for it. We are all children compared to him I find it amazing that he appears to maintain his initial statement. Let's see if he dares to play a game as Novgorod in Vanilla with the intent of reaching 17-17-6-6 in 1550 - so that he cannot hide behind the "role-play" masque .

Lawkeeper, are you reading this? Personally I'll give you a gold medal if you in 1550 has reached 11-11-5-5 or even 9-11-4-5 (which incidentally are quite nice and important levels for each tech).

What I found was that as long as I stayed out of wars with especially Sweden and concentrated on the East the opponents were low tech and there is a lot of plains provinces in that area which makes it suitable for low tech cavalry warfare. Thus I did not invest one ducat into Land until the beginning of the 17th century.

My problem the first 200 years was not high BB but low, I was close to reach zero BB points at several points and thus I made some 1 province force annexations in the East.

 

[unmerged(6147)]

I don't know what the secret is, I wasn't sure whether I'd reload until I got into an alliance, but in this game I succeded in joining their alliance on January 1st 1419 the first time I tried. This time I also had to DoW Sweden myself in December 1420, it seemed a good opportunity since I couldn't see any Swedish troops in Finland. That war lasted eleven years though.
Maybe it had something to do with me starting at easy/normal and only later switching to very hard after I made peace with Sweden.

That data is taken from the savegame, as you can see from the cost of 50,000 for a bailiff you should divide by 1000 to arrive at the actual ducats. The monarch boni aren't included either.

Interesting. Could it be that "Easy" increases your diplo skill in some hidden way? I have never heard that before. But do try and start up on VH a few times and observe the impossibility to get Poland to ally you. Well, impossible for me it was. Maybe something else can have an influence.

From the pie chart it appears you did not invest one ducat in trade tech? Is that true? Rather surprising.

And you DOWed Sweden intentionally when you were so lucky they did not DOW you.... He-he, the 11 year war was a just punishment for that

 

[unmerged(25696)]

Hm, it might be more difficult and more laborious (which in fact it's not, see below), but it would actually give you your share in the world trade. The number you calculate unfortunately is pretty much meaningless.

If there were only two CoTs, one with the value of 10000d and the other with the value of 10d, and you would have a full monopoly in the first one and wouldn't trade at all in the other, would it mean your share in the world trade is 50%? Of course it wouldn't.

If you want to find out your share in the world trade, you can do the following: take the value of your trade (this can be found in the income breakdown - page 9 of the ledger under "Trade" heading). Take the value of the world trade (page 14, botton row, where the total trade value of all CoTs is listed). Divide the first one by the latter.
Since it's much easier to monopolize small CoTs, I would expect these two numbers to be significantly different, and the actual trade share to be lower than the number you calculate.

But the number will have been modified by your TE, so it's not your 'share'. Your share of the world trade is what you'd get with TE 100% : if you have more or less, it doesn't mean your share is higher or lower, just that you make more (or less) benefits from your share.

So, when you get your number ( Trade from page 9 divided by total trade value of page 14), divide it by your TE then multiply by 100. This will give an objective share.

 

[Iasius]

From the pie chart it appears you did not invest one ducat in trade tech? Is that true? Rather surprising.

No, I didn't and I won't until I've reached Infra 5.
But do keep in mind that this excludes monarch and neighbor boni.

I also included a link to an income pie chart in the post above (relinked for convenience here. ).
I'm not sure where the 4,000 ducats difference between income and expenses comes from, but at least a part is because the game treats repaying loans as an expense, but doesn't include taking a loan as income. Don't blame me though, I'm just taking the data from the save game. :wacko:

 

[unmerged(9146)]

But the number will have been modified by your TE, so it's not your 'share'. Your share of the world trade is what you'd get with TE 100% : if you have more or less, it doesn't mean your share is higher or lower, just that you make more (or less) benefits from your share.

So, when you get your number ( Trade from page 9 divided by total trade value of page 14), divide it by your TE then multiply by 100. This will give an objective share.

Yes, you're right, getting the share in the world trade is much more complicated than I thought and what I proposed ignores the trade efficiency issues.

However, what you propose is not accurate either - or rather it would be if all countries had the same TE as you do. In fact, in order to calculate your share in the world trade, you would have to check who trades in each CoT and factor in their trade efficiencies as well.

To give a simple example: suppose there is just one CoT with 1000d. You have 30% share at 20% TE, and three other nations trade their: their shares are 25%, 25% and 20%, and their trade efficiencies are 30%, 50% and 120% respectively.

The way DanielA proposes to calculate trade share would give 30%.
The way I proposed would give 6%.
The way you proposed would give 30%.

To get the actual share - well, you make 60d, and other nations make 75d, 125d, and 240d, so your actual share is 60/(60+75+125+240), which is 12%.

In particular, notice that both the methods that you and DanielA propose would give share of the fourth nation as 20% - ie lower than yours, when in fact it has the highest share of all (at 48%) (and 4 times higher than yours).

And yes, I do realize that with lots of CoTs the way DanielA calculates it may be close to the actual number, and I now realize their is no easy way to get the actual number, but I still believe that methodologically what we get this way is very much meaningless, as it is equivalent to making two assumptions - that all CoTs have the same value and that all nations have the same trade efficiency.

 

[unmerged(29041)]

BTW, I am still missing stats from Norre, Notomol, Strip and BBD. And Fodoron, haven't heard from you for some days now.

I have been really bussy with the two items in my signature. The new version of the guide and the Democratic BAR.

I did get some play time in . I'll try to give you some stats when I can. I am at 1690s and doing well. Not as well as most of you. I am perhaps too much of a pacifist. Only took polish provinces up to the Dnieper and most of Finland from Sweden, but Mongolia is intact (doesn't look too appealing and I have MA from the exploration times). I am allied to a 9 province Austria, but couldn't get anything in the last war against Transylvania because of the excellent Austrian leaders that were everywhere (Franz Joseph, Prince whatever...). I really want to hit the turks, but I am hesitant since they are already at land 27 and I am at 18. Being so rich and big I become less hungry for new lands.