Confusion about Burgundian Inheritance

[hegel68]

So, I finally started a 1.30 Austria game and promptly, the Burgundian Inheritance gives me headaches. Situation is as follows:

1. I have RM's with Burgundy since the start of the game.

2. Charles the Bold got three heirs in a row : First one female heir called "Marie de Bourgogne", who died about a year after she had become heir and afterwards one male heir with a weak claim, who died after about two years. Then he got another female heir called "Marie de Bourgogne" around 1478 with an average claim with impressive 6/6/6 stats.

3. In 1492, Charles finally died and ... nothing happened. No Burgudian succession crisis at all. Marie de Bourgogne succeded him on the throne and immediately got a strong male heir.

I also saved and reloaded to see, if Burgundy just choose the option to stand alone, but anytime Charles died between 1490 and 1500 the same thing happened: Marie ascends to the throne and immediately gets a heir with a strong claim.

What's wrong here?

 

[Borgio]

The actual "Marie of Burgundy" event should give you a 4/5/3 Marie with a STRONG claim (95 Legitimacy) AND set the country flag mary_is_heir. This flag may be needed to trigger the Burgundian succession event. In your case, the medium claim and very different stats of Mary may signal that one of 3 things might have happened:

1. The "Newborn Daughter" event gave Burgundy a female heir with a medium claim
2. The "Talented and ambitious Daughter" event gave Burgundy a female heir with a (?) claim
3. Burgundy simply generated a new heir and the chance to get a female heir should be about 7,947% for this country.

In all 3 cases, Marie is the most likely name (41,66%) for a female heir of Burgundy.

My best advice would be, to reload the savegame 10 or 20 more times to get lucky that this medium claim Marie dies before her father ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[hegel68]

Ah, I see. Thank you very much for the explanation. Since the Marie No. 1 also didn't have the 4/5/3 stats and a strong claim, I suppose, she was also the result of one of the dauther-events.

2. The "Talented and ambitious Daughter" event gave Burgundy a female heir with a (?) claim

With Marie No.2's stats of 6/6/6, I guess, it was rather the "talented and ambitious daughter" event than the other one

But just another question: According to what I have read, the new Burgundian Inheritance event chain should give Charles a negative modifier to get an heir. Have the two daugther events been overlooked here? It seems that Burgundy got two of them in my game.

Given the fact, that they have a MTTH of 500 and 600 months according to the wiki (i.e. between 40 and 50 years) plus some modifiers, that make them even more likely for older rulers, the probability that at least one them fires is pretty high, if Charles lives until 1490 or 1500.

 

[Travis_Bickle]

With Marie No.2's stats of 6/6/6, I guess, it was rather the "talented and ambitious daughter" event than the other one

But just another question: According to what I have read, the new Burgundian Inheritance event chain should give Charles a negative modifier to get an heir. Have the two daugther events been overlooked here? It seems that Burgundy got two of them in my game.

Given the fact, that they have a MTTH of 500 and 600 months according to the wiki (i.e. between 40 and 50 years) plus some modifiers, that make them even more likely for older rulers, the probability that at least one them fires is pretty high, if Charles lives until 1490 or 1500.

He has a negative modifier but he can still get an heir. In one of my saves he developed "Fertile" as a trait and had a 50%+ chance of an heir. I've had like 10 successive saves in a row he didn't get an heir and 6 where he did get an heir. I'd guess, but I'm not certain that you have a 3/4 chance of him not getting an heir.

Marie (the actual Marie) dying as an heir is really unlucky though. Generally, whenever you see the actual Marie, it means the event is going to fire.

 

[Laurent1944]

The event is not firing when Charles the Bold dies, it is the reverse: Charles dies when the event fires. EU4 logic.

 

[Travis_Bickle]

The event is not firing when Charles the Bold dies, it is the reverse: Charles dies when the event fires. EU4 logic.

Really?

That would make sense though, because the event can still fire if the heir has a weak or average claim.