I tried to value the different fast divisions available in the relevant timeframe 1938 till 1942. In 1943 Arm1943 with speed 15 finally makes Light Armour obsolete and as icd are less scarce by then they are likely the best choice while before then limited icd are a much bigger concern.
I measured how much icd it takes to produce the first brigaded divisions after retooling is done. This happened with best available ministers, 1940 doctrines and -24% from sliders, so those values are more or less typical for construction near Danzig.
In all cases the brigade is SpArt1940. It is a good brigade and having the same brigade in all cases simplifies the issue.
I did some savegame editing to create an easy test scenario. Playing Germany Luxembourg serves as victim. In the forests of Luxembourg there is one Inf1943-Art1943 with more than 100 org. So this will be a an enemy that is strong enough to last a while but weak enough to be beaten safely.
I move a formation of 3 identical divisions to Cologne, declare war at april the first and let the actual attack start at 6 hours. So that is dawn. The days last 13 hours, the nights 11 hours.
In all cases +10% from ministers apply, also +10% due to skill 4 and +5% due to offensive leaders. For mechanized and armoured divisions also +5% due to panzer leader apply.
For each division i run 5 tests. The first reliable conclusion i can draw is that a sample size of 5 is way too low to derive reasonable averages. On a smale scale war in AoD is more gambling than strategy.
Due to this it is only a weak conclusion that better models of the same division type do surspringly little to mitigate manpower losses.
Another possible conclusion is that better types of divisions do also do surspringly little to mitigate manpower losses. But one should keep in mind that forests do strongly disfavour armoured divisions. Compared to armoured divisions mechanized and motorized divions get +30% on attack, cavalry even +40%.
For all battles i measure the strenght loss of the entire formation, the manpower loss and the duration of the battle. I also totaled the losses for all 5 test iterations.
semimot Cav1937-SpArt1940: 69 days times 9.1342 ic = 630.2598 icd
18 strenght, 868 men, 30 hours
21 strenght, 985 men, 32 hours
19 strenght, 885 men, 31 hours
23 strenght, 1064 men, 36 hours
20 strenght, 945 men, 27 hours
4747 total loss of men
Mot1938-SpArt1940: 72 days times 11.1904 ic = 805.7088 icd
21 strenght, 1096 men, 35 hours
18 strenght, 953 men, 29 hours
14 strenght, 737 men, 29 hours
24 strenght, 1234 men, 48 hours
19 strenght, 1000 men, 31 hours
5020 total loss of men
Mot1941-SpArt1940: 72 days times 11.5514 ic = 831.7008 icd
11 strenght, 592 men, 26 hours
19 strenght, 1039 men, 33 hours
19 strenght, 985 men, 33 hours
21 strenght, 1077 men, 31 hours
22 strenght, 1207 men, 33 hours
4900 total loss of men
Mech1940-SpArt1940: 86 days times 13.0591 ic = 1123.0826 icd
18 strenght, 1110 men, 29 hours
25 strenght, 1552 men, 31 hours
14 strenght, 884 men, 24 hours
16 strenght, 1029 men, 27 hours
17 strenght, 1052 men, 31 hours
5627 total loss of men
Mech1942-SpArt1940: 86 days times 14.4271 ic = 1240.7306 icd
14 strenght, 931 men, 26 hours
17 strenght, 1047 men, 25 hours
6 strenght, 376 men, 10 hours
16 strenght, 987 men, 27 hours
17 strenght, 1033 men, 29 hours
4374 total loss of men
LArm1938-SpArt1940: 112 days times 13.6093 ic = 1524.2416 icd
36 strenght, 1337 men, 55 hours
27 strenght, 1004 men, 49 hours
31 strenght, 1128 men, 55 hours
25 strenght, 916 men, 49 hours
30 strenght, 1105 men, 55 hours
4590 total loss of men
LArm1939-SpArt1940: 123 days times 14.1861 ic = 1744.8903 icd
24 strenght, 878 men, 37 hours
32 strenght, 1176 men, 56 hours
20 strenght, 713 men, 36 hours
26 strenght, 959 men, 51 hours
22 strenght, 794 men, 36 hours
4520 total loss of men
Arm1939-SpArt1940: 127 days times 15.6595 ic = 1988.7565 icd
21 strenght, 760 men, 38 hours
27 strenght, 1008 men, 37 hours
17 strenght, 618 men, 34 hours
23 strenght, 850 men, 43 hours
11 strenght, 406 men, 25 hours
3642 total loss of men
Arm1941-SpArt1940: 127 days times 17.0275 ic = 2162.4925 icd
17 strenght, 617 men, 28 hours
24 strenght, 886 men, 38 hours
20 strenght, 723 men, 40 hours
17 strenght, 626 men, 43 hours
10 strenght, 368 men, 24 hours
3220 total loss of men
I measured how much icd it takes to produce the first brigaded divisions after retooling is done. This happened with best available ministers, 1940 doctrines and -24% from sliders, so those values are more or less typical for construction near Danzig.
In all cases the brigade is SpArt1940. It is a good brigade and having the same brigade in all cases simplifies the issue.
I did some savegame editing to create an easy test scenario. Playing Germany Luxembourg serves as victim. In the forests of Luxembourg there is one Inf1943-Art1943 with more than 100 org. So this will be a an enemy that is strong enough to last a while but weak enough to be beaten safely.
I move a formation of 3 identical divisions to Cologne, declare war at april the first and let the actual attack start at 6 hours. So that is dawn. The days last 13 hours, the nights 11 hours.
In all cases +10% from ministers apply, also +10% due to skill 4 and +5% due to offensive leaders. For mechanized and armoured divisions also +5% due to panzer leader apply.
For each division i run 5 tests. The first reliable conclusion i can draw is that a sample size of 5 is way too low to derive reasonable averages. On a smale scale war in AoD is more gambling than strategy.
Due to this it is only a weak conclusion that better models of the same division type do surspringly little to mitigate manpower losses.
Another possible conclusion is that better types of divisions do also do surspringly little to mitigate manpower losses. But one should keep in mind that forests do strongly disfavour armoured divisions. Compared to armoured divisions mechanized and motorized divions get +30% on attack, cavalry even +40%.
For all battles i measure the strenght loss of the entire formation, the manpower loss and the duration of the battle. I also totaled the losses for all 5 test iterations.
semimot Cav1937-SpArt1940: 69 days times 9.1342 ic = 630.2598 icd
18 strenght, 868 men, 30 hours
21 strenght, 985 men, 32 hours
19 strenght, 885 men, 31 hours
23 strenght, 1064 men, 36 hours
20 strenght, 945 men, 27 hours
4747 total loss of men
Mot1938-SpArt1940: 72 days times 11.1904 ic = 805.7088 icd
21 strenght, 1096 men, 35 hours
18 strenght, 953 men, 29 hours
14 strenght, 737 men, 29 hours
24 strenght, 1234 men, 48 hours
19 strenght, 1000 men, 31 hours
5020 total loss of men
Mot1941-SpArt1940: 72 days times 11.5514 ic = 831.7008 icd
11 strenght, 592 men, 26 hours
19 strenght, 1039 men, 33 hours
19 strenght, 985 men, 33 hours
21 strenght, 1077 men, 31 hours
22 strenght, 1207 men, 33 hours
4900 total loss of men
Mech1940-SpArt1940: 86 days times 13.0591 ic = 1123.0826 icd
18 strenght, 1110 men, 29 hours
25 strenght, 1552 men, 31 hours
14 strenght, 884 men, 24 hours
16 strenght, 1029 men, 27 hours
17 strenght, 1052 men, 31 hours
5627 total loss of men
Mech1942-SpArt1940: 86 days times 14.4271 ic = 1240.7306 icd
14 strenght, 931 men, 26 hours
17 strenght, 1047 men, 25 hours
6 strenght, 376 men, 10 hours
16 strenght, 987 men, 27 hours
17 strenght, 1033 men, 29 hours
4374 total loss of men
LArm1938-SpArt1940: 112 days times 13.6093 ic = 1524.2416 icd
36 strenght, 1337 men, 55 hours
27 strenght, 1004 men, 49 hours
31 strenght, 1128 men, 55 hours
25 strenght, 916 men, 49 hours
30 strenght, 1105 men, 55 hours
4590 total loss of men
LArm1939-SpArt1940: 123 days times 14.1861 ic = 1744.8903 icd
24 strenght, 878 men, 37 hours
32 strenght, 1176 men, 56 hours
20 strenght, 713 men, 36 hours
26 strenght, 959 men, 51 hours
22 strenght, 794 men, 36 hours
4520 total loss of men
Arm1939-SpArt1940: 127 days times 15.6595 ic = 1988.7565 icd
21 strenght, 760 men, 38 hours
27 strenght, 1008 men, 37 hours
17 strenght, 618 men, 34 hours
23 strenght, 850 men, 43 hours
11 strenght, 406 men, 25 hours
3642 total loss of men
Arm1941-SpArt1940: 127 days times 17.0275 ic = 2162.4925 icd
17 strenght, 617 men, 28 hours
24 strenght, 886 men, 38 hours
20 strenght, 723 men, 40 hours
17 strenght, 626 men, 43 hours
10 strenght, 368 men, 24 hours
3220 total loss of men