Colonization / Trading Centers % off

[jmschaub]

Colinization / Trading Centers % off

Ok I'm currently playing Oman...but I have noticed this in other countrys. I try to colonize or upgrade a trading centre. There seems to be certain spots that refuse to upgrade. For example I had tried to upgrade somalia. I had a 85% chance of success...yet after 6 failed attempts in a row I finally got it. I have even had fails @ 95% success. All I can say is....after taking statistics in college...that the odd of 6 failures in a row @ 85 % success are astronomical...please look into this. By the way during one of these time I tried a 45% chance of success spot and instantly got an upgrade. So it's either tied to certain locations or something is hidden to the user.

 

[BiB]

Re: Colinization / Trading Centers % off

Originally posted by jmschaub
Ok I'm currently playing Oman...but I have noticed this in other countrys. I try to colonize or upgrade a trading centre. There seems to be certain spots that refuse to upgrade. For example I had tried to upgrade somalia. I had a 85% chance of success...yet after 6 failed attempts in a row I finally got it. I have even had fails @ 95% success. All I can say is....after taking statistics in college...that the odd of 6 failures in a row @ 85 % success are astronomical...please look into this. By the way during one of these time I tried a 45% chance of success spot and instantly got an upgrade. So it's either tied to certain locations or something is hidden to the user.

And over time all the weird situations tend to even each other out just nicely.

 

[AndrewT]

>that the odd of 6 failures in a row @ 85 % success are astronomical.

No they're not, it's about 1/100,000. As there are over 100,000 people playing EU2 you can expect this kind of thing to happen every now and then.

A 95% chance means a 1/20 chance of not happeniong, again quite reasonable.

 

[Peter Ebbesen]

Re: Colinization / Trading Centers % off

Originally posted by jmschaub
All I can say is....after taking statistics in college...that the odd of 6 failures in a row @ 85 % success are astronomical...

Nope.

The odds of it happening immediately after you declare "I predict that the next 6 attempts at 85% will fail" are pretty low. The odds of six failures in a row at 85% happening to some player of EU2 on any given day are quite high.

 

[wryun]

Re: Re: Colinization / Trading Centers % off

Originally posted by Peter Ebbesen
Nope.

The odds of it happening immediately after you declare "I predict that the next 6 attempts at 85% will fail" are pretty low. The odds of six failures in a row at 85% happening to some player of EU2 on any given day are quite high.

Yup... for each of 100,000+ people playing EU2, they do a lot of colonising, trade posting, and religious conversions each game.

Still, I am sometimes suspicious that the odds displayed are not quite correct, especially when converting pagan provinces... I always seem to be more successful than I expect.

 

[BiB]

Re: Re: Re: Colinization / Trading Centers % off

Originally posted by wryun
Yup... for each of 100,000+ people playing EU2, they do a lot of colonising, trade posting, and religious conversions each game.

Still, I am sometimes suspicious that the odds displayed are not quite correct, especially when converting pagan provinces... I always seem to be more successful than I expect.

And I just had a game where for every succesfully converted pagan I had 2 failures

 

[unmerged(6159)]

Re: Re: Colinization / Trading Centers % off

Originally posted by Peter Ebbesen
Nope.

The odds of it happening immediately after you declare "I predict that the next 6 attempts at 85% will fail" are pretty low. The odds of six failures in a row at 85% happening to some player of EU2 on any given day are quite high.

Which can be simply tested by logging all such sequences and doing some simple statistical analysis.

I myself doubt there are 100,000 people playing right now. But the single anecdote is not evidence that there is a problem.